Spiller Pick Evaluation

[poo]

As we head into the 2012 Draft Thursday I wanted to start a conversation about BPA strategy and this community's thoughts on it. Winning teams, some argue, are built entirely through the draft by taking the Best Player Available in the team's slot. This drafting philosophy is opposed by that of the fit-based pick, taking a player who fills an immediate need on the team.

 

In 2009 many were as disappointed and shocked as I was when the pick came in at number 9 for CJ Spiller, the electrifying Running Back. The Bill's at the time had recently released a former Second Rounder in Travis Henry, then they released Willis McGahee a former late First Round Pick only to select Marshawn Lynch the following Draft in the First Round. When the Spiller pick came down Marshawn had been having troubles on the field but the emergence of Fred Jackson was just beginning as he lead the league in total yards the year before the Spiller pick as I recall. Please excuse me if my dates are slightly off and time dilates and contracts throughout the argument.

 

This was the situation at Running Back before the 2009 Draft. Afterwards, we watched CJ struggle through his first year and he never played up to his potential. The results of this past season seems to have confirmed the wisdom of the Spiller pick as we maintained a strong running game into December with CJ as lead back. This has lead to some discussion on the Boards here as to whether the Spiller pick was justified and I believe a consensus has formed around the performance of CJ that it was in fact a good choice to take him 9 overall in 2009 even though he did not fill an immediate need, to my understanding.

 

This Draft offers a similar situation, there are needs on this team that should be addressed but it seems unlikely that the player chosen at ten to fill one of these needs will be the Best Player Available. If a consensus has formed on the wisdom of the CJ pick will the members of this board support a pick that fits the BPA category, or will we be up in arms about the lack of a clear need position taken in the First Round? I, for one support the BPA available strategy even if this means ignoring one of the needs on the Offense or Defense.

 

Was CJ a good pick even though we could have kept Marshawn? Is BPA the best strategy when working the Draft? And, is this a unique year where no true talent emerges to make a claim to BPA at ten and we will fill a need out of a pool of the best players available?

[Kelly the Dog]

I didnt think so at the time (although many others here did), and Nix and Gailey both publicly denied it, but in retrospect, I think Nix and Gailey had already determined to change the culture of the Bills and that Lynch was going to be gone. They lied about it to get the best deal they could (which wasnt great, IMO). But from all of the players they have brought in since they got here, the vast majority have been good character, strong leader types. And I think they knew Lynch was going to be gone, but made a little misjudgment on just how good Fred Jackson was, which pretty much everyone everywhere always did.

 

So the Spiller pick was more than a BPA, it was in their mind, a position of need.

[D521646]

I honestly don't even know how to grade a BPA scenario? Best player at what position? This years draft doesn't seem to have a MUST have pick at any position lest maybe QB. Even Kalil isn't a sure fire bet at LT. I think it depends on your team dynamic more than anything. This year I see us having some options in trade scenarios, as well as filling needs with the best player we think is available. Even then you have issues as some can't even agree on what our biggest needs are? Is it OT, WR, CB, OLB? Once you figure that out I suppose you could say that we draft the best OT, OLB, CB, or WR available at 10.. And IMO that would be Ingram, or Mercillus, or Hightower. To me there are WR's available later in the rounds, same with OT. I don't see a CB worth taking at 10, so in my logical conclusion we MUST take a LB, and I don't think you can go wrong with any of these guys, and oh yeah throw in Keukly for giggled.

 

 

Tim-

[NoSaint]

I didnt think so at the time (although many others here did), and Nix and Gailey both publicly denied it, but in retrospect, I think Nix and Gailey had already determined to change the culture of the Bills and that Lynch was going to be gone. They lied about it to get the best deal they could (which wasnt great, IMO). But from all of the players they have brought in since they got here, the vast majority have been good character, strong leader types. And I think they knew Lynch was going to be gone, but made a little misjudgment on just how good Fred Jackson was, which pretty much everyone everywhere always did.

 

So the Spiller pick was more than a BPA, it was in their mind, a position of need.

 

i think with lynch about to run out his deal they knew his shelf life was short, and not someone theyd reinvest in.

 

with jacksons age, we dont know how long he will last but anything from here out is getting into surprise bonus production territory

 

spiller (and bpa in general) was the right choice because you just cant predict negotiations, injuries, etc.... a team turns its roster over every couple of years - if you can afford to bring a guy along and maybe burn a year with limited snaps, its almost inevitable (short of a handful of qbs) that if the player is talented, you will have him starting sooner rather than later.

[PromoTheRobot]

Spiller is a bust. At least that's what I've read.

 

PTR

[Over 29 years of fanhood]

I didn't like the pick at the time either. But the draft is over,where the pick was made is irrelevant and he is an asset to the football team no matter what Promo echos about him being a bust...

[Billsrhody]

I like spiller. I think he's proven himself to be a valuable offensive weapon and I expect him to make a real difference in the team's success this year. The bills have a great situation at RB because of Spiller and that allows them to focus on other needs. If Fred was the only reliable RB on the roster, we would have no depth and would toast he if got injured.

 

Spiller will continue to grow and develop and will eventually be a premier RB in the league.

[2003Contenders]

I think the key for Spiller has less to do with his abilities and more to do with whether or not Chan can come up with creative and effective ways of using him.

[Captain Hindsight]

In Hindsight, the only guy after Spiller in the first round i would have really wanted was Pierre Paul, he was considered VERY raw before the draft tho and benefited big time from watch Osi and Tuck play

[The Cincinnati Kid]

The fact that Spiller started some games at WR last year make the pick excellent. The guy is versatile in a scheme where players with versatility are needed. I am happy with the Spiller pick and I think that with him and Fred, we will have an excellent rushing attack again this season.

[Captain Hindsight]

The fact that Spiller started some games at WR last year make the pick excellent. The guy is versatile in a scheme where players with versatility are needed. I am happy with the Spiller pick and I think that with him and Fred, we will have an excellent rushing attack again this season.

best in the league potential

[yungmack]

I like Spiller a lot. I have no objection to him being on the roster whatsoever. I think he's going to have a fine career. My problem was using the #9 pick on him. In the "new" NFL, RBs are no longer the stars of the draft. I wouldn't say they're a dime a dozen, but their value has fallen dramatically over the last decade as the league has become overwhelmingly a passing one. This year, Richardson seems to be the only one being talked about as a top pick and even that isn't certain. I don't know if the Bills could have grabbed him in the second round, but they surely could have gotten a very good runner later on. I'm too lazy to look it up, but someone around here probably knows which DTs, DEs, WRs, QBs that were available that year at #9.

[CodeMonkey]

The results of this past season seems to have confirmed the wisdom of the Spiller pick as we maintained a strong running game into December with CJ as lead back.

I didn't like the Spiller pick then or now.

This past season certainly did not prove the wisdom of the pick to me.

Spiller clearly improved certain aspects of his game as the season went on, but his overall performance was not one of a first round running back in his second season in my opinion.

 

I'm not ready to call him a bust (yet). But I am also nowhere near ready to call it a wise pick either.

 

best in the league potential

How many years until he realizes the potential?

Edited April 18, 2012 by CodeMonkey

[Captain Hindsight]

I didn't like the Spiller pick then or now.

This past season certainly did not prove the wisdom of the pick to me.

Spiller clearly improved certain aspects of his game as the season went on, but his overall performance was not one of a first round running back in his second season in my opinion.

 

I'm not ready to call him a bust (yet). But I am also nowhere near ready to call it a wise pick either.

 

 

How many years until he realizes the potential?

I meant our RB duo being the best in the league.. potentially

[todzilla]

I thought Spiller was very good as a starter last year. He had numerous big plays and another 2 or 3 called back by penatly. I think he really breaks out this year as a star. I still endorse BPA as the way to go.

[1B4IDie]

I didnt think so at the time (although many others here did), and Nix and Gailey both publicly denied it, but in retrospect, I think Nix and Gailey had already determined to change the culture of the Bills and that Lynch was going to be gone. They lied about it to get the best deal they could (which wasnt great, IMO). But from all of the players they have brought in since they got here, the vast majority have been good character, strong leader types. And I think they knew Lynch was going to be gone, but made a little misjudgment on just how good Fred Jackson was, which pretty much everyone everywhere always did.

 

So the Spiller pick was more than a BPA, it was in their mind, a position of need.

Agree 100% on this.

[rayray808]

Looking back at the top 20 picks there is nobody else I would go back and choose over Spiller (for you who would say Pierre-paul, there is no way he would have learned the way he did in NY and become the player he is today should he have come here)

 

1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma Big 12

1 2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh† DT Nebraska Big 12

1 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma Big 12

1 4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams OT Oklahoma Big 12

1 5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry† S Tennessee SEC

1 6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung OT Oklahoma State Big 12

1 7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden CB Florida SEC

1 8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain LB Alabama SEC

1 9 Buffalo Bills C. J. Spiller RB Clemson ACC

1 10 Jacksonville Jaguars Tyson Alualu DT California Pac-10

1 11 San Francisco 49ers Anthony Davis OT Rutgers Big East from Chicago via Denver[R1 - 1]

1 12 San Diego Chargers Ryan Mathews† RB Fresno State WAC from Miami [R1 - 2]

1 13 Philadelphia Eagles Brandon Graham DE Michigan Big Ten from San Francisco via Denver[R1 - 3]

1 14 Seattle Seahawks Earl Thomas† S Texas Big 12 from Denver [R1 - 4]

1 15 New York Giants Jason Pierre-Paul† DE South Florida Big East

1 16 Tennessee Titans Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech ACC

1 17 San Francisco 49ers Mike Iupati G Idaho WAC from Carolina [R1 - 5]

1 18 Pittsburgh Steelers Maurkice Pouncey† C Florida SEC

1 19 Atlanta Falcons Sean Weatherspoon LB Missouri Big 12

1 20 Houston Texans Kareem Jackson CB Alabama SEC

[Harveyj001]

Looking back at the top 20 picks there is nobody else I would go back and choose over Spiller (for you who would say Pierre-paul, there is no way he would have learned the way he did in NY and become the player he is today should he have come here)

 

1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma Big 12

1 2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh† DT Nebraska Big 12

1 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma Big 12

1 4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams OT Oklahoma Big 12

1 5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry† S Tennessee SEC

1 6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung OT Oklahoma State Big 12

1 7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden CB Florida SEC

1 8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain LB Alabama SEC

1 9 Buffalo Bills C. J. Spiller RB Clemson ACC

1 10 Jacksonville Jaguars Tyson Alualu DT California Pac-10

1 11 San Francisco 49ers Anthony Davis OT Rutgers Big East from Chicago via Denver[R1 - 1]

1 12 San Diego Chargers Ryan Mathews† RB Fresno State WAC from Miami [R1 - 2]

1 13 Philadelphia Eagles Brandon Graham DE Michigan Big Ten from San Francisco via Denver[R1 - 3]

1 14 Seattle Seahawks Earl Thomas† S Texas Big 12 from Denver [R1 - 4]

1 15 New York Giants Jason Pierre-Paul† DE South Florida Big East

1 16 Tennessee Titans Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech ACC

1 17 San Francisco 49ers Mike Iupati G Idaho WAC from Carolina [R1 - 5]

1 18 Pittsburgh Steelers Maurkice Pouncey† C Florida SEC

1 19 Atlanta Falcons Sean Weatherspoon LB Missouri Big 12

1 20 Houston Texans Kareem Jackson CB Alabama SEC

Given than Hangartner was center at the time I might consider Pouncy in hindsight, but I wouldn't have at the time.

[Dragonborn10]

In retrospect they had no idea what talent they had. Would they have drafted Spiller knowing how good Freddie was going to be? I doubt it. They started Trent Edwards over Fitz again.

But again Nix and Gailey tell it like they see it. They said before that draft that they did not have enough playmakers on the field. They drafted Spiller because he was a playmaker. One could argue he may have been more of a need pick, at least in Nix's eyes, than a BPA.

This year Nix has said repeatledy they are going to draft tackles. Still a very good chance it is Reiff or Matin at #10. Kiper's wet dream draft of getting Floyd at #10 and Martin in the second round is very unlikley to happen.

[JPicc2114]

I like the Clifford Spiller pick.. hes a good player

[brenty]

Boob

 

B = Top view

 

oo = front view

 

b = side view

 

Boob is a great word, this bulletin however...

[BuckeyeBill]

If a player at any position is MUCH HIGHER than anyone else on your board, you take him. I have no problem with this philosophy.

 

Would not be surprised if the Bills took at DE at #10 even though they have Mario now.

[bigc14120]

The fact that Spiller started some games at WR last year make the pick excellent. The guy is versatile in a scheme where players with versatility are needed. I am happy with the Spiller pick and I think that with him and Fred, we will have an excellent rushing attack again this season.

Spiller was not excellant at WR. Smith did a much better job filling in there. There were things that Spiller had to learn, and he couldn't do all the moves for sure. Non the less, he did play there ,and I think that experience will make him a better back this year. It was OJT in an emergency and he was a C- wide out. I think, however he is an A- Rb, he just isn't that power back to get you the tough third and one done.

[Dopey]

Loved the pick at the time and still do. Gailey said we needed talent and he was the most talented player at that draft position. This team lacked so much talent it was almost depressing and I like to think of the NFL as entertainment and not live my life through the Bills.

[Homey D. Clown]

Historically speaking, I have been very happy with the Spiller pick, if you sift through my posts going all the way back and through his first season, I have maintained that the Spiller pick will be one Bills fans will appreciate when it's all said and done, along the lines of an Andre Reed, or Eric Moulds kind of pick. I have never been a Marshawn fan, and always thought he was an average or worse talent, definitely not a game changer, and I had enough of all his side stepping.

 

I hope there are enough plays called to support Spiller's growth, and feed Freddie, they both deserve it at this point in their careers.

[CodeMonkey]

Historically speaking, I have been very happy with the Spiller pick, if you sift through my posts going all the way back and through his first season, I have maintained that the Spiller pick will be one Bills fans will appreciate when it's all said and done, along the lines of an Andre Reed, or Eric Moulds kind of pick. I have never been a Marshawn fan, and always thought he was an average or worse talent, definitely not a game changer, and I had enough of all his side stepping.

 

I hope there are enough plays called to support Spiller's growth, and feed Freddie, they both deserve it at this point in their careers.

I sure hope you are right. But for now I'm still waiting.

[Billsrhody]

I like Spiller a lot. I have no objection to him being on the roster whatsoever. I think he's going to have a fine career. My problem was using the #9 pick on him. In the "new" NFL, RBs are no longer the stars of the draft. I wouldn't say they're a dime a dozen, but their value has fallen dramatically over the last decade as the league has become overwhelmingly a passing one. This year, Richardson seems to be the only one being talked about as a top pick and even that isn't certain. I don't know if the Bills could have grabbed him in the second round, but they surely could have gotten a very good runner later on. I'm too lazy to look it up, but someone around here probably knows which DTs, DEs, WRs, QBs that were available that year at #9.

 

Well at least you wont have to worry about the bills spending another high pick on a RB for the next 6 or 7 years.

[reddogblitz]

I didn't like the Spiller pick then or now.

This past season certainly did not prove the wisdom of the pick to me.

Spiller clearly improved certain aspects of his game as the season went on, but his overall performance was not one of a first round running back in his second season in my opinion.

 

I'm not ready to call him a bust (yet). But I am also nowhere near ready to call it a wise pick either.

I agree 100% with this. While he showed some flashes last year he has in no way IMHO established himself as a quality RB. We'll see what happens this year.

[PDaDdy]

Was CJ a good pick even though we could have kept Marshawn?

 

We weren't keeping Marshawn. I didn't want to believe it myself and thought we would be stupid to get rid of him but I was wrong. One of the popular phrases of the era is "it's a passing league". Also popular is the "2 back system". We have have 2 great ones. One just starting his career and one closer to the end. I don't quite understand this debate as I am REALLY glad we have them both. Now Gailey just needs to find each of them enough touches for the sake of the team not for their individual egos.

Edited April 19, 2012 by PDaDdy

[Dopey]

I agree 100% with this. While he showed some flashes last year he has in no way IMHO established himself as a quality RB. We'll see what happens this year.

He hasn't had the chance. Fred has been awesome. When Fred got hurt we saw glimpses of what he can do if given the ball regularly. I'm not saying give it to him more than Freddy, just saying when he had the chance he performed pretty well. Don't forget he had to take time away from RB(practice snaps) when he filled in at WR. He had to take snaps at WR which didn't help his developement at RB.

[reddogblitz]

1 St. Louis Rams Sam Bradford QB Oklahoma Big 12

1 2 Detroit Lions Ndamukong Suh† DT Nebraska Big 12

1 3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers Gerald McCoy DT Oklahoma Big 12

1 4 Washington Redskins Trent Williams OT Oklahoma Big 12

1 5 Kansas City Chiefs Eric Berry† S Tennessee SEC

1 6 Seattle Seahawks Russell Okung OT Oklahoma State Big 12

1 7 Cleveland Browns Joe Haden CB Florida SEC

1 8 Oakland Raiders Rolando McClain LB Alabama SEC

1 9 Buffalo Bills C. J. Spiller RB Clemson ACC

1 10 Jacksonville Jaguars Tyson Alualu DT California Pac-10

1 11 San Francisco 49ers Anthony Davis OT Rutgers Big East from Chicago via Denver[R1 - 1]

1 12 San Diego Chargers Ryan Mathews† RB Fresno State WAC from Miami [R1 - 2]

1 13 Philadelphia Eagles Brandon Graham DE Michigan Big Ten from San Francisco via Denver[R1 - 3]

1 14 Seattle Seahawks Earl Thomas† S Texas Big 12 from Denver [R1 - 4]

1 15 New York Giants Jason Pierre-Paul† DE South Florida Big East

1 16 Tennessee Titans Derrick Morgan DE Georgia Tech ACC

1 17 San Francisco 49ers Mike Iupati G Idaho WAC from Carolina [R1 - 5]

1 18 Pittsburgh Steelers Maurkice Pouncey† C Florida SEC

1 19 Atlanta Falcons Sean Weatherspoon LB Missouri Big 12

1 20 Houston Texans Kareem Jackson CB Alabama SEC

I would say that Ryan Mathews, Earl Thomas (Pro Bowl 2011), and Mike Iupati would all have been better picks for the Bills than Spiller. Maybe Anthony Davis as well. I also toss in Brian Bulaga who went to the Cheese a little later in round 1.

[Matt in KC]

There are three main philosophies you can use to choose player in the draft:

• 
   
  
• Best player available (BPA)
  
• Position of need
  
• Benefit of hindsight
  

 

Personally, I'd like to use the benefit of hindsight wherever possible.

 

I don't think any team really uses BPA, completely ignoring need. On the other hand, I do think team sometimes focus on need and don't have the luxury of taking the BPA, because, well, they need a player a position. I think some teams can handle uncertainty better on draft day than others, and others are prettty clear on what they are going to do.

 

Seriously, I think it's better to use a BPA-heavy evaluation the earlier the pick. You'd better get a stud if you have a top pick!

 

One gripe: I haven't replied to anyone yet, but have read dozens of times people post that they believe we should take the best player available... so long as they fill a postion we need. I do agree that we shouldn't take the second or third best player at a position we need when it's time to pick.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Well at least you wont have to worry about the bills spending another high pick on a RB for the next 6 or 7 years.

Did you HAVE TO say that?