Over 29 years of fanhood Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 (edited) The problem is that while the Bills may very well be the worst team in the NFL over the course of the last ten years, they're never the worst team during any individual season, so the "can't miss" QB prospects are gone by the time the Bills pick in the first round. (Yeah, yeah, we could have taken Brady, but so could every other NFL team. Nobody saw that coming.) The "can't miss" guys are always gone after the first couple of picks and there will always be questions about any QB outside of a very small handful of prospects (maybe a few per decade). Take Newton or don't, take Gabbert or don't, but expect that improvement to the defense will likely result in a return to the sort of 6-10 to 8-8 record which ensures that the Bills will never get an elite QB until the NFL adopts a draft lottery and/or weighs long-term team performance into draft order. Nice argument but baseless. The mediocre team draft range is in the 11-20 range. Looking at top 10 picks, there are 2 QB in the NFL now, I believe, who have super bowl rings, they have the same last name. Aside from the Manning's, here are some other can't miss top 10's: Stafford, Sanchez are TBD, Ryan had a good year but their #3 pick was embarrassed by a 24th overall pick. Russell, Young and Leinart didn't do anything for their franchise, Alex Smith hasn't made it, even Rivers hasn't been able to win a playoff game but is at least a winner, Palmer appears to have worn his welcome in Cinci. Leftwich was eh… Carr and Harrington were total failures, Vick could be argued both ways. Of Couch McNabb and Akili Smith, only 1 had a noteworthy career, then there was Leaf. There are only a few (McNabb, Manning, Vick and Rivers) top 10 drafted QB in the past 20 years out of 26, I could argue keep their teams as perennial contenders. Point here is this will not be the once in a lifetime chance to get a franchise QB. Draft the best player you can with the best chance to help your team and the fewest questions about whether they can be that guy. Edited February 20, 2011 by over 20 years of fanhood Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 But the defense will still suck. By taking him first the D becomes a two year project and will start to jell when Cams first contract would be up. So, we will be here bitching about them not addressing the D Are you forgetting that there is more than 1 round in the draft? Not to mention Free Agency as well. There is more than one way to fix the D than just our #3 pick. This draft is deep in DL and LB. We could take Newton at #3 and address the Defense in rounds 2-5 and still come away with 2 or 3 starters. Just like last year when we ended up with Troup, Carrington, and Moats. And the guys in this years draft are supposed to be even better than them. It's actually a pretty simple plan. Draft Newton and Defense. Newton is going to sit all of next year so that gives us a year to shore up the D and Oline. By the time Cam is ready to start in 2012, we'll have most of the pieces in place and playing together already. Again, drafting Newton and fixing the Defense are not mutually exclusive. I don't mean to keep raining on your non-stop rain, but I guess you're not aware that NFL teams are pretty much prohibited from having contact with underclassmen with remaining NCAA eligibility until they declare for the draft, which cannot happen until January 15th - and, no matter how unhappy it makes you, the Bills are just as prohibited from interviewing them as every other NFL team. (That's not to say that teams can't scout underclassmen; they can - AND THE BILLS HAVE, EXTENSIVELY!!! I'm not at all clear what it is that compels you to think the Bills have not done so. ) Apparently all of the reports from OBD back in the middle of the season about Nix personally going (with the rest of the scouts) on scouting trips to watch the QBs around the country wasnt enough? Not sure what this guy thinks they were all doing.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 John Mallett is good at moving around and in the pocket between the tackles to buy time. He also appears to have that mental time clock that permits good QBs to feel the pressure and buy time. He is also capable of throwing on the run, mechanically speaking I mean, although those opportunities are not likely to be many for him in the pros given his admitted limitations re mobility. But Peyton isn't all that mobile either. Mallett has very good football IQ. Petrino has a poor record of graduating QBs to the bigs, but Mallett is no Stefan Lafors, who can't even play in Canada, and no Brohm either. Although Louisville's offence was allegedly pro style (actually not, two thirds spread, one third power 1)it was a one read scheme when Brohm was there because thats all he was capable of. Mallett is the only QB prospect in this draft that was trusted with audibilizing at the LOS based on the coverages he saw. He also routinely went through 2,3,4 read progressions. He has made bad i.e. ill advised throws from time to time, but the thing to remember is that its not as a result of a lack of vision. He actually knows that the free safety is coming over to help in coverage, its just that he thinks he can beat the guy with arm strength. Well when your playing a highly ranked D like Ohio State with a particularly strong secondary you can get burned yourself. His pro coaches will presumably beat that out of him And Mallett was also victimized more than any other SEC QB by receiver drops. The other thing to bear in mind in my opinion, is not that he is the best passer in this draft. He is one of the best pure passers on the planet today, right now, and hes just a kid (flame away ladies and gentleman). Just as Newton may be in a class by himself athletically, there is no one in this draft that can reasonably be compared with Mallett as a passer. I don't think he will be a Bill unless Buddy trades back into the first to get him. IMO the pro talent evaluators will know better than the mock draft experts and he will be gone by the mid first. Having said that, if he is there at #34 I think Buddy jumps. I think he will see Philip Rivers, someone he knows and likes. Having Mallett drafted in the second and sit behind Fitz for a couple of years as we get better is ideal for the player. He wont have the pressure of being a mid round first, will likely have a chip on his shoulder and will benefit from the instruction of good coaches and a very, very smart starter. Don't see it happening though. I appreciate your well thought views on this issue. The best comparison of Mallett's style of play is to Bledsoe. If that is the case it is not going to work in Buffalo. Our line play is not that good. What has distinguished this year's two SB qbs is their ability to move and extend plays. I don't see that ability with Mallett. As you indicated Peyton Manning is not the most mobile qb in the game. What distinguished him from others is his ability to make quick reads and then accurately deliver the ball. He is like a Majic Johnson and Byrd with his ability to instantly diagnose and react. I'm not against any qb prospect. If Gailey and Nix believe in any of the top qb prospects then they should go for it. If they rate Mallett high then I wouldn't be adverse to taking him in the second round. He still should be there at that point. I don't know much about Gabbert. If they rate him high enough and they think he is a better prospect than Newton then they should take the plunge. Although at this time I prefer Newton I'm not wedded to him or anyone else. My central point in my numerous qb postings is that if the Bills have any serious long term aspirations they have to secure a substantial upgrade at qb. The Bills drafting third are in position to address that critical need. This is the year to do it and then get on with the gut wrenching rebuilding of this shattered franchise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nasty Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I still say draft Miller at 3, sign the DT from Miami, move KW to end to fill Strouds departure. Two significant moves and the D is ten times better. Who better to teach Miller the position other then Shawne, he can teach him even if he is hurt. Stay away from Newton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnC Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 (edited) Are you forgetting that there is more than 1 round in the draft? Not to mention Free Agency as well. There is more than one way to fix the D than just our #3 pick. This draft is deep in DL and LB. We could take Newton at #3 and address the Defense in rounds 2-5 and still come away with 2 or 3 starters. Just like last year when we ended up with Troup, Carrington, and Moats. And the guys in this years draft are supposed to be even better than them. It's actually a pretty simple plan. Draft Newton and Defense. Newton is going to sit all of next year so that gives us a year to shore up the D and Oline. By the time Cam is ready to start in 2012, we'll have most of the pieces in place and playing together already. Again, drafting Newton and fixing the Defense are not mutually exclusive. As with you I don't understand the argument that if you take an offensive player, at any positon, you are not addressing the defensive needs. As you stated there are the remaining draft picks. Certainly free agency (impacted by the CBA issue) could be used to help on that side of the ball. The argument that you have to draft a player who will be an immediate impact is also very unpersuasive. No rookies in our last year's draft class who a measurable impact. Our top three picks certainly didn't. That doesn't mean they won't. Edited February 20, 2011 by JohnC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RTW2012 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 2007 1st: J. Russel, B. Quinn 2nd: K. Kolb, J. Beck, D. Stranton 3rd: NONE 4th: I. Stanback, 5th: J. Rowe, T. Smith There was a QB taken in the third round in 2007. How quickly we forget... (or blot out of our memory). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DrDawkinstein Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 There was a QB taken in the third round in 2007. How quickly we forget... (or blot out of our memory). LOL, ouch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 (edited) I like Fitz as a stop gap. He's a solid gamer, but I'm not a fan of him leading our team for a gw td with under 2 mins left. I want someone like big ben. Cam is definitely intriguing. I'd be happy if we drafted him. We NEED a true franchise qb and cam has the tools to become that qb. Fitz, IMO, does not I know what you mean about Fitz at clutch time - he seemed to throw the INT or fumble at just the most critical moments last season. But he also displayed signs of a guy who can lead us from behind to a victory - if only God would stop making Stevie Johnson drop Fitz's perfectly thrown passes. I am very intrigued at the prospect of going into this season with Fitz as starting QB, and with Gailey & Co. operating under that knowledge going into OTAs and training camp. I think his progress this season will be phenomenal, and will amaze not only the doubters on this board, but the rest of the football world as well. Say no to Kim Newton. JMO. GO BILLSSS!!!! Reverse the Curse!!!!! . Edited February 20, 2011 by The Senator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meathead Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 No We Cam't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BB2004 Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 http://weblogs.sun-sentinel.com/sports/columnists/hyde/blog/2011/02/draft_winds_a_thorough_breakdo.html this analysis on Cam Newton by Universal Draft should be pinned since it provides lot of factual background info that can be used to assess the reality of many issues being raised about his chances for success in the NFL 2 of the biggest regard him being a run first QB and his work ethic and leadership Well, if we want him I would prefer not to take him at #3 overall. If we were to trade back to the mid first round, which is a risk, I would certainly consider taking him in the mid first round while picking up an extra late first or early 2nd round pick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Fitz has the respect and support of his team mates and coaches. Just don't see the Bill's ignoring that and taking a QB this high. The Defense is what this team needs and a lot of it. Skipping their biggest need to take a QB is just a huge mistake, Billy Fuccillo huge. To top it off, Newton just doesn't cut the mustard in my book. Hype. Nothing but hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
karl malones other son Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 i hope so. i think hes a superstar. anyone else catch him at the nba dunk contest last night? superstar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Hindsight Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Without my benefit of hindsight, If we take Newton at #3 this year, we will be talking about how we could drafted (insert player name here) to disrupt Tom Brady while Newton sat on the bench as Fitz had another solid season. We have a rare opportunity to draft that disruptive threat that we could have had with Haloti Ngata or Brian Orakpo. We need to take that player now. Cam Newton might be a great player someday. (Personally i don't believe the hype) But if we cant stop the run, every team with run right through us to prevent newton or any other offensive star from ever stepping on the field and making a difference. Defense Wins Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I am actually changing my first round prediction to Newton...... - QB is a need.....we dont have a backup I even want to put on the field. - My biggest fear of Cam Newton is putting him on the field too soon and ruining him......but I think we are in a good position here to have him sit for a year and learn or possibly putting him in wildcat situations. Fitz is the perfect QB to run this team right now. - Use EVERY other pick on defense, get a OT and TE in free agency. Cam's potential is incredible.....as long as we dont rush him along too quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ozymandius Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 If the Bills draft Newton, they need to use the rest of their draft picks on OFFENSE. Try to provide the young QB with as many weapons and as much protection as possible. Set him up for success. The Packers and Saints build their offenses up first, then worried about defense later. The Colts did the same. The Patriots are in the process of doing the same. Steelers are the only exception among the league leaders. It's a new age of football. Consistent, high-level success means building for offensive football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NewEra Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 I am actually changing my first round prediction to Newton...... - QB is a need.....we dont have a backup I even want to put on the field. - My biggest fear of Cam Newton is putting him on the field too soon and ruining him......but I think we are in a good position here to have him sit for a year and learn or possibly putting him in wildcat situations. Fitz is the perfect QB to run this team right now. - Use EVERY other pick on defense, get a OT and TE in free agency. Cam's potential is incredible.....as long as we dont rush him along too quickly. Another +1 It seems like the majority of the people against drafting newton are dead set against drafting someone that may take a year or 2 to progress. They want someone that will help us win NOW. While it definitely makes some sense, the fact is, we need a franchise qb. Period. I like Fitz, but I don't see him leading us to a super bowl victory. That's the goal, winning the super bowl. Not going 9-7 and hoping we squeeze in. Sure, we need to improve our defense in order to reach that goal, but we may be in position to get an extremely talented qb right NOW. That isn't the case year in year out. Take the chance when it's there. It's been 15 long years since we've had one, things need to change in that respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Senator Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 (edited) I am actually changing my first round prediction to Newton...... - QB is a need.....we dont have a backup I even want to put on the field. - My biggest fear of Cam Newton is putting him on the field too soon and ruining him......but I think we are in a good position here to have him sit for a year and learn or possibly putting him in wildcat situations. Fitz is the perfect QB to run this team right now. - Use EVERY other pick on defense, get a OT and TE in free agency. Cam's potential is incredible.....as long as we dont rush him along too quickly. OK, HemetJohn - what's your record on draft predictions? Mine is near perfect - wrong every single time! Therefore, since I absolutely do not want the Bills to draft Kim Newton in ANY round, I will make the following prediction: It is an incontrovertible, metaphysical certainty that the Buffalo Bills will draft Cam Newton! GO BILLSSS!!!! PosLUSZny!!!!! . Edited February 20, 2011 by The Senator Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buffalo Barbarian Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Don't want this guy!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John from Riverside Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 OK, HemetJohn - what's your record on draft predictions? Mine is near perfect - wrong every single time! Therefore, since I absolutely do not want the Bills to draft Kim Newton in ANY round, I will make the following prediction: It is an incontrovertible, metaphysical certainty that the Buffalo Bills will draft Cam Newton! GO BILLSSS!!!! PosLUSZny!!!!! . lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rockinon Posted February 20, 2011 Share Posted February 20, 2011 Another +1 It seems like the majority of the people against drafting newton are dead set against drafting someone that may take a year or 2 to progress. They want someone that will help us win NOW. While it definitely makes some sense, the fact is, we need a franchise qb. Period. I like Fitz, but I don't see him leading us to a super bowl victory. That's the goal, winning the super bowl. Not going 9-7 and hoping we squeeze in. Sure, we need to improve our defense in order to reach that goal, but we may be in position to get an extremely talented qb right NOW. That isn't the case year in year out. Take the chance when it's there. It's been 15 long years since we've had one, things need to change in that respect. We need a QB, but I don't see any draftable prospects being able to compete at Fit's level for quite some time. And most people making the argument for his replacement are certain that he can't be that franchise QB himself. People want that shiny new toy and completely ignore what they have right in their own back yard. The idea is to improve on what we have instead of sacrificing something valuable in order to get something more valuable. Our focus should be to fix our weaknesses not tamper with our strengths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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