"26-27-60 Rule" of QB's

[PromoTheRobot]

SI article

 

This article was published last July but it's very interesting. The writer claims there is a combination of stats...Wonderlic score, games started in college and completion percentage...that reliably predicts a college QB's chance of success in the NFL. Even more interesting is that Fitz makes the cut.

 

Since 1998, these are some of the NFL quarterbacks who aced all three parts of the Rule of 26-27-60: Peyton Manning, Phillip Rivers, Eli Manning, Drew Brees, Tony Romo, Matt Schaub, Kyle Orton, Kevin Kolb, Matt Ryan, Ryan Fitzpatrick and Matt Stafford.

 

While Wonderlic tests have yet to be given for this year's crop of QB's, here are the starts and comp % numbers for this years prospects:

 

Blaine Gabbert - 18 starts...58.3% FAIL/FAIL

Cam Newton - 14 starts...65.4% FAIL/PASS

Jake Locker - 28 starts...53.4% PASS/FAIL

Ryan Mallett - 24 starts...52.6% FAIL/FAIL

Christian Ponder - 23 starts...61.2% FAIL/PASS

Colin Kaepernick - 37 games....55.6% PASS/FAIL

Andy Dalton - 37 starts...60.2% PASS/PASS

Rick Stanzi - 26 starts...57.1% FAIL(barely)/FAIL

Greg McElroy - 22 games...62.0% FAIL/PASS

 

So far only Andy Dalton meets the cutoff. And as the story points out there are exceptions. (Ben Rothlesberger a notable one) But we are always looking for a formula or predictor of success. Could this be the one? Thoughts?

 

PTR

Edited February 7, 2011 by PromoTheRobot

[BillsRUs]

Interesting read....I guess I would look at the wonderlic from a qualitative standpoint.....and not place as much emphasis on it as I would games started and completion %.

[Maddog69]

If you include his National Championship season last year in Junior college, Newton would have more than 26 college stsrts.

[Mr. WEO]

was posted

[Beebe's Kid]

This was being discussed in another forum, and I get a kick out of the responses. People that want to draft Newton or Gabbert get very, very angry at this. They act like you made this up. You know, like how Al Gore made up Global Warming, and claimed to create the Interweb.

 

The results of this test are pretty hard to argue. Is is 100%? No. Does it appear to hit more than it misses. Definitely. Will people always think they can "outsmart" it? Yes. Do I want the Bills to keep trying to go against the grain, especially after reviewing past results? No.

[Bangarang]

Josh Freeman of the Buccs fails the completion % portion of this formula. Pretty sure just about everyone here would love him as our QB. But like you said, there are always exceptions.

[dave mcbride]

Brian Brohm was a rousing success according to this measure. He may not make an NFL team next year (and I strongly suspect that he won't make the Bills).

[Zona]

I think is the best indicator of success at the next level. It shows that a guy is capable of being "The Man" at a University level, and accurate, and smart enough to read defenses at the next level. I would add also that the level of competition is relevant as well. Peyton Manning was "The Man" at a school in the SEC, not the SWC. Or the Mac. One year wonders have been the rage before (akili Smith, Ryan Leaf, Rick Mirer) and now we have another (newton). Stick to the formula. Take Dalton in the second if you must, but stay away from all others, IMO...

[ddaryl]

I believe your data is wrong

 

Blaine Gabbert, I believe has started 26 games,

 

Also Blaine has an over 60% completion, your data is definitley WRONG

 

 

 

not sure about the rest of your data but my guess is more research is necesary

 

If you include his National Championship season last year in Junior college, Newton would have more than 26 college stsrts.

 

I would never include Newtons games at Blinn in this formula.

 

 

Blaine Gabbert, played in 29 games. I beleive he started 26, has a little over 60% completion rate, and holds a preyty high college GPA

 

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/PlayerQB.asp?id=1205753

 

Blaine Gabbert
Year 	 Lge 	 Team 	                 Age 	 # 	 GP 	 Comp 	 Att 	 % 	 Yds 	TD 	INT 	 TD% 	 INT% 	 Y/G 	 Y/A 	RAT
2008 	 NCAA 	 Missouri Tigers 	 19 	 0 	 3 	 5 	 13 	 38.5 	 43 	 0 	 0 	 0.0 	 0.0 	 14.3 	 3.3 	 66.2
2009 	 NCAA 	 Missouri Tigers 	 20 	 0 	 13 	 262 	 445 	 58.9 	 3593 	 24 	 9 	 5.4 	 2.0 	 276.4 	 8.1 	 140.5
2010 	 NCAA 	 Missouri Tigers 	 21 	  	 13 	 301 	 475 	 63.4 	 3186 	 16 	 9 	 3.4 	 1.9 	 245.1 	 6.7 	 127.0
 	 NCAA 	 Totals 	  	                 29 	 568 	 933 	 60.9 	 6822 	 40 	 18 	 4.3 	 1.9 	 235.2 	 7.3 	 132.6

 

I'll say it again your data is WRONG !

Edited February 7, 2011 by ddaryl

[PromoTheRobot]

I believe your data is wrong

 

Blaine Gabbert, and Ryan Mallett I do believed have started 26 games

 

Also Blaine has an over 60% completion, your data is definitley WRONG

 

 

 

not sure about the rest of your data but my guess is more research is necesary

 

 

 

I would never include Newtons games at Blinn in this formula.

 

 

Blaine Gabbert, played in 29 games. I beleive he started 26, has a little over 60% completion rate, and holds a preyty high college GPA

 

http://www.totalfootballstats.com/PlayerQB.asp?id=1205753

 

 

 

I'll say it again your data is WRONG !

 

I based my info on CBS Sports NFL Draft. Not exactly a fly-by-night operation, but apparently wrong on Mallett. My apologies.

 

PTR

[ddaryl]

I based my info on CBS Sports NFL Draft. Not exactly a fly-by-night operation, but apparently wrong on Mallett. My apologies.

 

PTR

 

 

That data is incorrect. Not sure how or where you got that info from CBS, but if you look at the career game logs at ESPN and put the math together you get some very different numbers.

 

Maybe I'm wrong, but something isn't adding up for one of us. I get much different totals for most everyone using ESPN as a reference. I just found the totalfootball.com link just recently

[Ramius]

SI article

 

This article was published last July but it's very interesting. The writer claims there is a combination of stats...Wonderlic score, games started in college and completion percentage...that reliably predicts a college QB's chance of success in the NFL. Even more interesting is that Fitz makes the cut.

 

 

 

While Wonderlic tests have yet to be given for this year's crop of QB's, here are the starts and comp % numbers for this years prospects:

 

Blaine Gabbert - 18 starts...58.3% FAIL/FAIL

Cam Newton - 14 starts...65.4% FAIL/PASS

Jake Locker - 28 starts...53.4% PASS/FAIL

Ryan Mallett - 24 starts...52.6% FAIL/FAIL

Christian Ponder - 23 starts...61.2% FAIL/PASS

Colin Kaepernick - 37 games....55.6% PASS/FAIL

Andy Dalton - 37 starts...60.2% PASS/PASS

Rick Stanzi - 26 starts...57.1% FAIL(barely)/FAIL

Greg McElroy - 22 games...62.0% FAIL/PASS

 

So far only Andy Dalton meets the cutoff. And as the story points out there are exceptions. (Ben Rothlesberger a notable one) But we are always looking for a formula or predictor of success. Could this be the one? Thoughts?

 

PTR

 

Your numbers are way off. Ponder has started 32 games over 3 years here at FSU.

[NoSaint]

While I like it- I'd like to add 25- as in a top 25 season. It helps make sure that you were playing the big boys or atleast handling your business where you should. I'd be curious the accuracy of predicting success if that was added.

 

To those pulling out names on either side -- if this predicts at a 75% success rate, and the next best index is at like 60% I'd call it a wild success. It's silly to think 3 stats could account for a career... Injuries, coaching, talent surrounding, and a little bit of luck are all important. I think it's amazing how well these 3 stats actually do. That can't be argued.

[ddaryl]

Christian Ponder
Year ▾ 	 Lge 	 Team 	                        Age 	 # 	 GP 	 Comp 	 Att 	 % 	 Yds 	TD 	INT 	 TD% 	 INT% 	 Y/G 	 Y/A 	RAT
2010 	 NCAA 	 Florida State Seminoles 	 22 	  	 12 	 184 	 299 	 61.5 	 2044 	 20 	 8 	 6.7 	 2.7 	 170.3 	 6.8 	 135.7
2009 	 NCAA 	 Florida State Seminoles 	 21 	 0 	 9 	 227 	 330 	 68.8 	 2717 	 14 	 7 	 4.2 	 2.1 	 301.9 	 8.2 	 147.7
2008 	 NCAA 	 Florida State Seminoles 	 20 	 0 	 13 	 177 	 318 	 55.7 	 2006 	 14 	 13 	 4.4 	 4.1 	 154.3 	 6.3 	 115.0
2007 	 NCAA 	 Florida State Seminoles 	 19 	 0 	 1 	 8 	 18 	 44.4 	 105 	 1 	 2 	 5.6 	 11.1 	 105.0 	 5.8 	 89.6
 	 NCAA 	 Totals 	  	  	                 35 	 596 	 965 	 61.8 	 6872 	 49 	 30 	 5.1 	 3.1 	 196.3 	 7.1 	 132.1

Ryan Mallett
Year 	 Lge 	 Team 	                 Age 	 # 	 GP 	 Comp 	 Att 	 % 	 Yds 	TD 	INT 	 TD% 	 INT% 	 Y/G 	 Y/A 	RAT
2007 	 NCAA 	 Michigan Wolverines 	 19 	 0 	 11 	 61 	 141 	 43.3 	 892 	 7 	 5 	 5.0 	 3.5 	 81.1 	 6.3 	 105.7
2009 	 NCAA 	 Arkansas Razorbacks 	 21 	 0 	 13 	 225 	 403 	 55.8 	 3624 	 30 	 7 	 7.4 	 1.7 	 278.8 	 9.0 	 152.5
2010 	 NCAA 	 Arkansas Razorbacks 	 22 	  	 13 	 266 	 411 	 64.7 	 3869 	 32 	 12 	 7.8 	 2.9 	 297.6 	 9.4 	 163.6
 	 NCAA 	 Totals 	  	  	         37 	 552 	 955 	 57.8 	 8385 	 69 	 24 	 7.2 	 2.5 	 226.6 	 8.8 	 150.4

Jake Locker
Year 	 Lge 	 Team 	                 Age 	 # 	 GP 	 Comp 	 Att 	 % 	 Yds 	TD 	INT 	 TD% 	 INT% 	 Y/G 	 Y/A 	RAT
2007 	 NCAA 	 Washington Huskies 	 19 	 10 	 12 	 155 	 328 	 47.3 	 2062 	 14 	 15 	 4.3 	 4.6 	 171.8 	 6.3 	 105.0
2008 	 NCAA 	 Washington Huskies 	 20 	 10 	 4 	 50 	 93 	 53.8 	 512 	 1 	 0 	 1.1 	 0.0 	 128.0 	 5.5 	 103.6
2009 	 NCAA 	 Washington Huskies 	 21 	 0 	 12 	 230 	 395 	 58.2 	 2800 	 21 	 11 	 5.3 	 2.8 	 233.3 	 7.1 	 129.7
2010 	 NCAA 	 Washington Huskies 	 22 	  	 12 	 184 	 332 	 55.4 	 2265 	 17 	 9 	 5.1 	 2.7 	 188.8 	 6.8 	 124.2
 	 NCAA 	 Totals 	  	  	         40 	 619 	 1148 	 53.9 	 7639 	 53 	 35 	 4.6 	 3.0 	 191.0 	 6.7 	 119.0

Colin Kaepernick
Year 	 Lge 	 Team 	                 Age 	 # 	 GP 	 Comp 	 Att 	 % 	 Yds 	TD 	INT 	 TD% 	 INT% 	 Y/G 	 Y/A 	RAT
2007 	 NCAA 	 Nevada Wolf Pack 	 20 	 0 	 11 	 133 	 247 	 53.8 	 2175 	 19 	 3 	 7.7 	 1.2 	 197.7 	 8.8 	 150.8
2008 	 NCAA 	 Nevada Wolf Pack 	 21 	 0 	 13 	 208 	 383 	 54.3 	 2849 	 22 	 7 	 5.7 	 1.8 	 219.2 	 7.4 	 132.1
2009 	 NCAA 	 Nevada Wolf Pack 	 22 	 0 	 13 	 166 	 282 	 58.9 	 2052 	 20 	 6 	 7.1 	 2.1 	 157.8 	 7.3 	 139.1
2010 	 NCAA 	 Nevada Wolf Pack 	 23 	  	 14 	 233 	 359 	 64.9 	 3022 	 21 	 8 	 5.8 	 2.2 	 215.9 	 8.4 	 150.5
 	 NCAA 	 Totals 	  	  	         51 	 740 	 1271 	 58.2 	 10098 	 82 	 24 	 6.5 	 1.9 	 198.0 	 7.9 	 142.5

 

 

Definitely some different data if totalfootballstats.com is to be trusted

[zonabb]

I've posted on this many times in other threads over the years because I believe smart people make smart, rational choices based on some formula and without reading the article but this thread, it seems to mimic Parcell's requirements.... which generally are based on games started, graduation, and wins.

 

Bottomline is, you have to take risk assessment into the concept of the draft and determine how much risk you're willing to take. When it comes to QBs, the reason there seems to be such a high risk is because teams gamble more on the position and draft them higher than data and research would support based on the value of the position and not the position they're picked.

 

As with any model, which this is, it's used as a predictive tool and although some guys have some of the stats to meet the model and smoe don't, generally, it works well in that is has more predictive power than looking at the atheletic measurables alone.

 

To the person who said wonderlic is qualitative, you're wrong. Wonderlic is a measurement of some sort of intelligence, which is a quantitative measure. Opinions are qualitative data. IQ is quantitative. Wonderlic being a proxy measurement for IQ, it's therefore quantitative.

 

I replied to a thread a couple weeks ago that stated if you look up the reported Wonderlics of Super Bowl winning QBs they all exceed I think its a 22 with the exception of Bradshaw and that was before last night. Rodgers exceeded it too. So my point is that although a high Wonderlic is not a guarantee you have a Super Bowl winning QB, one less than 22 is a guarantee YOU DON'T.

 

So my point is, if I'm drafting a QB, I want a guy with the 27 starts, the wins, the degree and the Wonderlic over 22 because it's a better indicator (because of the large sample size, ie, the number of years in college competing at a high level and then graduating) than you have with someone like Newton.

 

So when it comes down to what will be 2+ months of discussin Newton, he doesn't fit the Parcells model (you don't count the Blinn games because it was a juco) right off the bat because he lacks the starts, the wins and the degrees. The Wonderlic will be telling. Throw in character issues and what I think is a problem with his overbearing father in terms of the potential lack of decision-making ability given what is an adult and you have the recipe for disaster.

 

So at #3, are all those questions worth the gamble? If I'm the Bills, I say no way and pass on the guy.

[Captain Hindsight]

Brian Brohm was a rousing success according to this measure. He may not make an NFL team next year (and I strongly suspect that he won't make the Bills).

Obviously there are exceptions. I think its just like saying He did it in practice, hell do it in the game.

 

Its not always true but its a good indicator that a player will be successful

[Chandler#81]

I goofed. Just 'mousing' over the thread, I guess I pushed too hard and locked it out.

[PromoTheRobot]

Obviously there is something wrong with the CBS stat site so let's try this again with the site ddaryl provided me...

 

Blaine Gabbert - 29 starts...60.9% PASS/PASS

Cam Newton - 20 starts...65.4% FAIL/PASS

Jake Locker - 40 starts...53.9% PASS/FAIL

Ryan Mallett - 37 starts...57.8% PASS/FAIL

Christian Ponder - 35 starts...61.8% PASS/PASS

Colin Kaepernick - 51 games....58.2% PASS/FAIL

Andy Dalton - 50 starts...61.7% PASS/PASS

Rick Stanzi - 38 starts...59.8% PASS/FAIL

Greg McElroy - 35 games...66.3% PASS/PASS

 

Again, thanks to ddaryl for catching the errors. This revised list shows many more options that meet 2 of 3 parts of the 26-27-60 rule: Gabbert, Ponder, Dalton and McElroy. Anyone know when the Wonderlic tests are given?

 

PTR

[Beerball]

Anyone know when the Wonderlic tests are given?

 

PTR

At the combine IIRC.

[Johnny Hammersticks]

While he may be just one of those "exception to the rule" players, I think I saw somewhere that Dan Marino got a 15 or 16 on the Wonderlic. That's on par with Leodis McKelvin's score! Apparently, you don't need to be a super genius to be a successful NFL quarterback.

Edited February 7, 2011 by Johnny Hammersticks