Blaine Gabbert

[ieatcrayonz]

 

 

and last time I checked, Newton just won the National Championship and the Heisman and he won the JUCO National Chanpionship the year before. Maybe that will translate to the NFL, maybe not. But you cannot say he has never won a big game.

I'm pretty sure Mr. Limbaw compared Newton to Smith and says Blaine Gabbert never won a big game. In fact, no one with the name Blaine has ever won a big game.

[Maddog69]

Newton won the championship by himself? I'm impressed. AND the JUCO championship singlehandedly? Holy crp dude. I'm impressed. Took on a whole defense on his own? 1 against 11?

 

What does that mean? NOTHING. Look at the past QB's that played for national championships. And look what they've done.

 

Tim Tebow? John Wilson Parker? Matt Leinart? Vince Young? Matt Flynn? Jamarcus Russell? Craig Krenzel? Ken Dorsey? Jason White? Chris Weinke?

 

Pretty impressive list of QBs there my friend.

 

BTW. Quick question:

How many national championships has Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, Matt Schaub, Ben Roethlisberger, Aaron Rodgers won in their college careers...COMBINED?

 

So don't bring up meaningless facts as an argument.

 

It was in response to Darin who said that none of these QBs won a Big game.

No player ever wins a game by himself, it is a team sport. That's obvious.

[DreReed83]

It was in response to Darin who said that none of these QBs won a Big game.

No player ever wins a game by himself, it is a team sport. That's obvious.

 

Touché

[Alaska Darin]

So many things wrong with your post:

1.) How do you know there are no elite QBs in this draft?

Because elite QBs don't last to number 3 in the NFL draft in this era.

2.) You also need a real QB in this league to win consistently.

Which we probably already have with Fitzpatrick. You also don't win consistently in the NFL when your defense can't tackle a high school player. ANY QB that gets drafted this season is going to be 3 years behind what we already have.

3.) How do you know that every QB in this draft will be the next Akili Smith? Maybe one of them can be the next Jim Kelly, Manning, Elway, etc.

I don't. But the odds are far more likely that we'll draft a bust rather than a HoFer. The data on QBs is unarguable. Fitzpatrick is more than good enough to get this team to the playoffs if the problems at OT/D Front 7 get addressed. A rookie QB is meaningless at this juncture, especially if it's Gabbert (done nothing) or Newton (one year wonder with serious character questions).

 

Quick, name the last SEC QB not named Manning to do anything in the NFL. Cutler? Outside of that guy, who still has questions about him, there is a line of complete failures - which Newton is very likely going to be added to.

4.) How do you know that whatever defensive player we draft will not be the next Erik Flowers, Aaron Maybin or John McCargo.

I don't, which is why I'd like to see the BILLS gather as many picks as possible. That all but guarantees they'll have a few hits. Call me crazy but I don't see Buddy Nix picking Flowers, Maybin, or McCargo. The Spiller pick wasn't made with this season in mind, nor should it have been. The BILLS were irrevocably broken and the process for rebuilding was with a longer term outlook. Finally.

The simple answer is; You have no idea. So if you'd like to express an opinion, great. But spare me the attitude.

Who the !@#$ are you? Don't like attitude? Don't respond, "Maddog".

Thanks.

You're welcome?

and last time I checked, Newton just won the National Championship and the Heisman and he won the JUCO National Chanpionship the year before. Maybe that will translate to the NFL, maybe not. But you cannot say he has never won a big game.

I was referring to Gabbert.

[JohnC]

No I understand YOUR point which clearly makes no sense but you clearly don't understand mine. If a QB is more NFL ready right out of college, how would he have less long term potential? If a college QB is more NFL ready, that means he has a higher upside than someone who isn't. Just because they are NFL ready doesn't mean they've peaked as in improving as a QB. So you're not making any sense. A QB who is described as "NFL ready" just means he's capable of making the transition to the NFL level easier than someone who's not. Pretty self explanatory if you ask me.

 

So you'd take the athletic QB who can throw the ball 80 yds down the field over someone with a decent arm, can read defenses and has a high football IQ? Nice to meet you Mr. Al Davis.

 

You simply make no sense with your logic. Many people would agree with you that Ponder is probably better prepared to more quickly adjust to the pro game than Gabbert or Newton. Go back and peruse through every mock draft or scouting report and analysis you can find. Not one will have Ponder ahead of the two lesser prepared qbs. Why? They have more upside and tools. If you can't understand such common sense reasoning then you never will. I don't want to get in a tit for tat with a bratty poster. But your childishly petulant responses are uncalled for. You have a maturity issue you need to work on.

[Maddog69]

Because elite QBs don't last to number 3 in the NFL draft in this era.

 

Which we probably already have with Fitzpatrick. You also don't win consistently in the NFL when your defense can't tackle a high school player. ANY QB that gets drafted this season is going to be 3 years behind what we already have.

 

I don't. But the odds are far more likely that we'll draft a bust rather than a HoFer. The data on QBs is unarguable. Fitzpatrick is more than good enough to get this team to the playoffs if the problems at OT/D Front 7 get addressed. A rookie QB is meaningless at this juncture, especially if it's Gabbert (done nothing) or Newton (one year wonder with serious character questions).

 

Quick, name the last SEC QB not named Manning to do anything in the NFL. Cutler? Outside of that guy, who still has questions about him, there is a line of complete failures - which Newton is very likely going to be added to.

 

I don't, which is why I'd like to see the BILLS gather as many picks as possible. That all but guarantees they'll have a few hits. Call me crazy but I don't see Buddy Nix picking Flowers, Maybin, or McCargo. The Spiller pick wasn't made with this season in mind, nor should it have been. The BILLS were irrevocably broken and the process for rebuilding was with a longer term outlook. Finally.

 

Who the !@#$ are you? Don't like attitude? Don't respond, "Maddog".

 

You're welcome?

 

I was referring to Gabbert.

 

Didn't mean to get into a pi$$ing match with you. I apologize. I respectly disagree with you, though.

 

1.) Elite QBs do in fact make it to pick 3 or later all the time. (Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Marino, Kelly, Brees, just to ones that came to mind quickly)

2.) You have a much higher opinion of Fitz than I do. He is, in my opinion, not very good. The stats this year and over his career bear that out. He is much better than what we've had, so by comparison he looks great. But he is average or below. With horrible accuracy. We need to find a QB

3.) With regard to whatever QB we draft being 3 yrs behind Fitz. I see your point, put I think you overstate it. On one hand, the reason I want to draft a QB this year is because it will take a year or two before he is ready to really play full time and be near his peak. I want to have that guy on the roster developing this year while we build all of the other key components (OL, dominating D, weapons on O, etc). I don't want to get all of the pieces in place only to realize we don't have a QB. On the other hand, most of the highly drafted QBs are playing much sooner these days, so its possible that by late year 1 or early year 2, the drafted QB will be the starter.

4.) Any draft pick is a risk. There is just was much risk of Cam Newton being a bust as there is for Fairley or whomever else you look at.

 

I am hoping the Bills come out of this draft with their QB of the future. I personally hope that Newton survives all of the upcoming scrutiny and becomes that guy. I have a feeling he could be a special player in the NFL (his character concerns also give me heartburn). But I will be very excited if Nix/Gailey decide Newton or Gabbert are the guy at #3 or if they take Ponder or one of the other guys later in Rd1 or early 2.

Anything beyond that is a low risk gamble like we took on Levi Brown. I really wanted them to grab Colt McCoy last year. I just want a young QB to give us some hope. Maybe he'll follow in the footsteps of Jim Kelly and help rebuild our team to prominance or maybe he'll follow in the footsteps of Rob Johnson, Drew Bledsoe or JP Losman and be a player who we wasted a 1st round pick on that did not live up to expectations.

 

I just don't see why so many people on this board go so far out of there way to say that any QB in this draft sucks and will not be any good. None of us can see the future.

Edited February 1, 2011 by Maddog69

[TC in St. Louis]

I think Gabbert will end up being a great pro. He was the number one rated Pro-style quarterback coming out of high school (ahead of Andrew Luck). He's big, has a fantastic arm, and is an excellent athlete.

 

I don't think the Bills should take him with the 3rd pick in the draft. But I do hope they end up with him. In fact, I was on the phone with his grandfather the other day, and I told him I'm a Bills fan and I hope they end up with Blaine Gabbert. And my dad's name was Blaine, so I think he would have felt better about that name (he hated it) if Gabbert became a star with the Bills.

[Maddog69]

I think Gabbert will end up being a great pro. He was the number one rated Pro-style quarterback coming out of high school (ahead of Andrew Luck). He's big, has a fantastic arm, and is an excellent athlete.

 

I don't think the Bills should take him with the 3rd pick in the draft. But I do hope they end up with him. In fact, I was on the phone with his grandfather the other day, and I told him I'm a Bills fan and I hope they end up with Blaine Gabbert. And my dad's name was Blaine, so I think he would have felt better about that name (he hated it) if Gabbert became a star with the Bills.

 

Nice.

I don't know anything at all about Gabbert, so I cannot express an opinion.

Curious, why were you on the phone with his grandfather?

[stony]

You simply make no sense with your logic. Many people would agree with you that Ponder is probably better prepared to more quickly adjust to the pro game than Gabbert or Newton. Go back and peruse through every mock draft or scouting report and analysis you can find. Not one will have Ponder ahead of the two lesser prepared qbs. Why? They have more upside and tools. If you can't understand such common sense reasoning then you never will. I don't want to get in a tit for tat with a bratty poster. But your childishly petulant responses are uncalled for. You have a maturity issue you need to work on.

 

Thank you for pointing this out. You're dead on. I said the same thing in another post. Disagreement is one thing, blatant refusal to accept other's opinions and constantly insulting others is quite another.

[JohnC]

Thank you for pointing this out. You're dead on. I said the same thing in another post. Disagreement is one thing, blatant refusal to accept other's opinions and constantly insulting others is quite another.

 

I have no problem with people disagreeing with what I say or what others say. It is the insulting responses that are unacceptable. His type of petulant responses lower the standard of behavior for all posters. Coming on strong doesn't mean coming on stupid.

[TC in St. Louis]

Nice.

I don't know anything at all about Gabbert, so I cannot express an opinion.

Curious, why were you on the phone with his grandfather?

 

He drives dealer trades for the place where I sell cars. Martin Gabbert is his name. He's a good guy. I called him because I needed somebody to go to KC to pick up a new black Silverado 2500 Crew Cab Turbo Diesel.

[Maddog69]

He drives dealer trades for the place where I sell cars. Martin Gabbert is his name. He's a good guy. I called him because I needed somebody to go to KC to pick up a new black Silverado 2500 Crew Cab Turbo Diesel.

Wow. What a small world. That's funny.

[Buffalo Barbarian]

You need to understand the concept of projection. Projecting a run-first, throw-second QB with one starting season in the SEC, albeit with a national title, is not easy. Does he have a good arm? Yes. Does he makes some good throws? Yes? Can he scramble? Yes. Can he stand in and read a defense? No sure. Is he smart enough to handle to position at the NFL level? Not sure. Can he scramble out of trouble at will in the NFL when his first read isn't open and he doesn't have the patience to read his other options? No way, the linebackers are too fast. The bottomline is, you can't fall in love with a one-year wonder with questionable maturity and a very small sample of high level college games. How many other one year wonders were drafted to high and bombed? Too many to count I would offer.

 

I can't comment on Gabbert. I haven't seen him play but from what I've read, he's played in a pro-style offense (vs. Newton playing in the spread) and has done very well with it from both the mental and physical sides. And he has a larger sample of games played to judge on. The larger the sample, the closer you get to being able to project who he is. The smaller the sample, the more likely you are to over or under-estimate a player when their real abilities might be somewhere between the extremes.

 

I've said it before here and continue to.... I like Parcells criteria for drafting QBs (based on wins, games, played and graduation) as the starting point. Add in Wonderlic scores and you're in better position to make a good pick with a QB. There is a distinct traits with all SB winning QBs who I have been able to locate Wonderlic scores for, with the exception of one guy... none had scores, if I can recall correctly (have it written down somewhere), less than 22 or so, other than Bradshaw. Basically, every SB winner since 1990 has a score that higher or higher. And my point is, although you might get to the playoffs with some supreme physical talent, the stats seem to indicate that winning one requires some higher intelligence.

 

Proof: this year's SB QBs have a 35 (Rodgers) and a 25 (Roethlisberger).

 

Some recent winners, in addition to Roethlisberger, as well

 

Brady 33

P. Manning 28

E. Manning 39

Brees 28

 

However, Ryan Leaf had a 27, which is why I said that other factors matter, like Parcells criteria. Leaf bucked Parcells criteria becaus ehe didn't finish college or start and win enough games.

 

The problem with the QB in the NFL is that there is such a premium on the position that it leads to over-reaction and poor decision making on the parts of teams. So teams are willing to disregard what non-emotional, quantitative analysis says and gamble and it fails more often than not.

 

Between 2000 and 2010 29 QBs were taken in the NFL. We can call these guys unquestioned busts (1 in 3) through 2007(not enough playing time):

 

McNown

Carr

Harrington

Ramsey

Boller

Losman

Smith

Leinart

Quinn

 

Some were serviceable but ultimately didn't/haven't win/won titles or are teetering on bust status

 

Pennington

Vick

Palmer

Leftwich

Grossman

Rivers

Campbell

Young

Cutler

Rodgers

 

And these are your title winners

Roethlisberger

E. Manning

 

If Rodgers wins, that's a SB-winning QB drafted in the first round in 3 of the last 11 drafts. If not, even worse, only 2.

 

So what this long winded post means is... it's a gamble. Big time. And you have to minimize the risk and not reach in the first round because as history has shown most QBs are drafted too highly.

 

Take the best lineman and move on!

Vic, Rogers, Rivers are more than serviceable.

[KD in CA]

If tehjre wasa choice i also would go with the more tried and true tested guy like Newton as well.

A guy with 13 starts in college is "tried and true tested"?

 

 

I'll take the more polished passer over the gimmick QB any day of the week. Cam Newton doesn't know how to make reads. Nor is he that much of a polished QB. Sorry, but I'll take Gabbert over Newton any day of the week.

 

They're both raw, but Gabbert has a higher upside than Newton and a shorter distance to get there. To me, not knowing how to read defenses is a big no no, and it's clear that Newton doesn't know how to. He goes with his first read and if its not there, he runs. Doesnt know how to check down. Doesn't know how to run through his 2nd and 3rd options. Just a disaster waiting to happen.

 

It amazes me how many people simply refuse to acknowledge these things.

Edited February 1, 2011 by KD in CT

[DreReed83]

Nice.

I don't know anything at all about Gabbert, so I cannot express an opinion.

Curious, why were you on the phone with his grandfather?

 

Not many people know about Gabbert cuz he came out of nowhere. I'm still not all that sold on him. Wasn't sold on Ponder either until i saw him play and i was more than impressed. I still like Stanzi and Ponder in the 2nd or 3rd round.

[JPicc2114]

Not many people know about Gabbert cuz he came out of nowhere. I'm still not all that sold on him. Wasn't sold on Ponder either until i saw him play and i was more than impressed. I still like Stanzi and Ponder in the 2nd or 3rd round.

 

 

He didn't come out of no where.. he played for a top 15 team the year prior.

 

 

He threw 3600 yards and 24Tds, w/ 9 Ints. Ran for 200 yards and 3 Tds.

 

 

He was highly regarded last year, but last year no one was talking about his draft stock since he was a redshirt Soph. They probably assumed he would go out in 2012.

[DreReed83]

He didn't come out of no where.. he played for a top 15 team the year prior.

 

 

He threw 3600 yards and 24Tds, w/ 9 Ints. Ran for 200 yards and 3 Tds.

 

 

He was highly regarded last year, but last year no one was talking about his draft stock since he was a redshirt Soph. They probably assumed he would go out in 2012.

 

So last year, he was considered the top QB in this year's draft class? Sure thing

[stony]

So last year, he was considered the top QB in this year's draft class? Sure thing

 

Can you please show me where the previous post said this? Or is this another one of your sarcastic, petulant posts?

[Alaska Darin]

Didn't mean to get into a pi$$ing match with you. I apologize. I respectly disagree with you, though.

 

1.) Elite QBs do in fact make it to pick 3 or later all the time. (Rivers, Roethlisberger, Rodgers, Marino, Kelly, Brees, just to ones that came to mind quickly)

I think we're off target here. There were questions about each of those QBs, which is obvious considering the QBs who were picked in front of them. It's the biggest crapshoot in sports.

2.) You have a much higher opinion of Fitz than I do. He is, in my opinion, not very good. The stats this year and over his career bear that out. He is much better than what we've had, so by comparison he looks great. But he is average or below. With horrible accuracy. We need to find a QB.

Fitz has never played on an even decent team. I find it difficult to compare apples with apples when there are so many obvious deficiencies in St Louis, Cincinnati, and Buffalo.

 

I don't think I'd say his accuracy is horrible. I'm not sure how many QBs would be super accurate playing behind our offensive line.

3.) With regard to whatever QB we draft being 3 yrs behind Fitz. I see your point, put I think you overstate it. On one hand, the reason I want to draft a QB this year is because it will take a year or two before he is ready to really play full time and be near his peak. I want to have that guy on the roster developing this year while we build all of the other key components (OL, dominating D, weapons on O, etc). I don't want to get all of the pieces in place only to realize we don't have a QB. On the other hand, most of the highly drafted QBs are playing much sooner these days, so its possible that by late year 1 or early year 2, the drafted QB will be the starter.

Probably a valid point but I think I'd rather find the key components at the top of the draft than the next Vince Young (which Newton has written all over him). How do we know Levi Brown won't be that guy?

4.) Any draft pick is a risk. There is just was much risk of Cam Newton being a bust as there is for Fairley or whomever else you look at.

Possible, but not probably. I think history shows that long term successful players at the college level are more likely to be productive NFL players than the "one year flash" guys.

 

Personally, I'd rather see the BILLS trade down and pick up a couple more picks to increase the likelihood of finding more guys who can actually play in the NFL.

I am hoping the Bills come out of this draft with their QB of the future. I personally hope that Newton survives all of the upcoming scrutiny and becomes that guy. I have a feeling he could be a special player in the NFL (his character concerns also give me heartburn). But I will be very excited if Nix/Gailey decide Newton or Gabbert are the guy at #3 or if they take Ponder or one of the other guys later in Rd1 or early 2.

Anything beyond that is a low risk gamble like we took on Levi Brown. I really wanted them to grab Colt McCoy last year. I just want a young QB to give us some hope. Maybe he'll follow in the footsteps of Jim Kelly and help rebuild our team to prominance or maybe he'll follow in the footsteps of Rob Johnson, Drew Bledsoe or JP Losman and be a player who we wasted a 1st round pick on that did not live up to expectations.

 

I just don't see why so many people on this board go so far out of there way to say that any QB in this draft sucks and will not be any good. None of us can see the future.

I don't care much about hope and if they pick Cam Newton it'll just be another guy who feels a lot like Maybin at a time when the franchise can least afford another unproductive first rounder.

[San Jose Bills Fan]

I think Gabbert will end up being a great pro. He was the number one rated Pro-style quarterback coming out of high school (ahead of Andrew Luck). He's big, has a fantastic arm, and is an excellent athlete.

 

I don't think the Bills should take him with the 3rd pick in the draft. But I do hope they end up with him. In fact, I was on the phone with his (Gabbert's) grandfather the other day, and I told him I'm a Bills fan and I hope they end up with Blaine Gabbert. And my dad's name was Blaine, so I think he would have felt better about that name (he hated it) if Gabbert became a star with the Bills.

Great stuff, TC.

 

 

 

[The Senator]

Gabbert...grounded...

 

2011 NFL Combine: Blaine Gabbert Won't Throw Until Missouri Pro Day

 

Gabbert Gabbert Gabbert...

[San Jose Bills Fan]

Gabbert...grounded...

 

2011 NFL Combine: Blaine Gabbert Won't Throw Until Missouri Pro Day

 

Gabbert Gabbert Gabbert...

On the other hand, after indicating that he wouldn't throw, Christian Ponder has made the decision to throw. Per PFT (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/02/22/the-latest-on-quarterbacks-combine-intentions/):

 

Expected to throw at Combine:

 

Newton, per himself.

 

Kaepernick, per PFT.

 

Locker, per himself.

 

Mallett, per SI.com.

 

Dalton, per FOX Sports’ Adam Caplan.

 

Stanzi, also per Caplan.

 

Not expected to throw at Combine:

 

Gabbert, per USA Today.

 

Ponder, per himself.

 

UPDATE (9:20 p.m. Tuesday): Ponder has decided to throw in Indy, after all.

 

The Tuscaloosa News reports that Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy will not throw at the Combine and may even miss his Pro Day due to two fractures in his right hand. The injury occurred during January’s Senior Bowl game.

 

Other QBs invited to Combine: Ryan Colburn (Fresno State), Pat Devlin (Delaware), Nate Enderle (Idaho), Jerrod Johnson (Texas A&M), Josh Portis (California, PA), Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech), Scott Tolzien (Wisconsin), Jeff Van Camp (Florida Atlantic), T.J. Yates (North Carolina).

 

 

[The Senator]

On the other hand, after indicating that he wouldn't throw, Christian Ponder has made the decision to throw. Per PFT (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/02/22/the-latest-on-quarterbacks-combine-intentions/):

 

Expected to throw at Combine:

 

Newton, per himself.

 

Kaepernick, per PFT.

 

Locker, per himself.

 

Mallett, per SI.com.

 

Dalton, per FOX Sports’ Adam Caplan.

 

Stanzi, also per Caplan.

 

Not expected to throw at Combine:

 

Gabbert, per USA Today.

 

Ponder, per himself.

 

UPDATE (9:20 p.m. Tuesday): Ponder has decided to throw in Indy, after all.

 

The Tuscaloosa News reports that Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy will not throw at the Combine and may even miss his Pro Day due to two fractures in his right hand. The injury occurred during January’s Senior Bowl game.

 

Other QBs invited to Combine: Ryan Colburn (Fresno State), Pat Devlin (Delaware), Nate Enderle (Idaho), Jerrod Johnson (Texas A&M), Josh Portis (California, PA), Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech), Scott Tolzien (Wisconsin), Jeff Van Camp (Florida Atlantic), T.J. Yates (North Carolina).

 

Interestingly...

 

Most top-end quarterbacks in recent years have taken a pass on passing at the Combine. Sam Bradford, Matthew Stafford and Matt Ryan, to name three, all waited for their pro days, choosing to throw to familiar receivers instead of the masses at the Combine.

 

On the other hand, Mark Sanchez, Joe Flacco and Jay Cutler all chose to throw at the Combine -- and none of them wound up with any reason to regret it.

 

(Link - Sporting News)

[Chimp]

1) I disagree with you and Mad Dog69 and agree with ajzepp.

2) Get a life dude. You're not a pro scout.

3) You obviously don't know what you're watching. He has happy feet. First read, balls out. If not he runs. He scrambles around looking to run and not to throw. If he does throw, he just chucks it downfield. Those kinda QB's are the kind of QB's that won't cut it in the NFL. When did Vick start getting better? When he stopped runnig around like an idiot and start making throws.

 

Decision making: Newton rarely put his receivers in bad position and didn't throw the ball a lot into double coverage. He just needs to get faster making decisions in the passing game. Comes out of Gus Malzahn's spread option where he doesn't have to make multiple reads. Doesn't anticipate a receiver's route that well.

 

Field vision: Here is where Newton is going to need the work. A lot of Auburn's passes came on receivers running double moves and deep crosses. They're routes where receivers get themselves open and don't necessarily have to rely on the quarterback fitting the ball into a tight window. In addition, a lot of Newton's passes come on the first read. When it's not there, the offense called for him to pull the ball and run. Since teams stacked the box to defend Auburn against the run, Newton didn't see a lot of complex coverages. He did early against Oregon in the BCS National Championship game and got into trouble. He'll have to spend a lot of time in the film room to learn how to pass against defenses with good secondary play and an array of coverages.

 

I suggest you go back your mother's basement and watch those films another 20 times.

 

Dude get a life. You're not a pro scout. Wait, maybe you're a scout for the Bills. That explains a lot.

 

Leading up to the 1998 draft, there was a debate about whether Manning or Leaf was the better prospect. Several sports writers stated that Manning was the more NFL-ready and would come up to speed more quickly. But they also said that Leaf had more "upside," and was the better long-term prospect.

 

Obviously those writers were dead wrong: the same qualities which led Manning to be "NFL-ready" also meant he had more upside. A quarterback's upside isn't in his arm or his legs. It's between his ears.

 

All of this is a roundabout way of saying that if given a choice between Ponder and any of the other QBs available in this draft, I'd take Ponder.

Read what you posted again. They said they believed that Ryan Leaf was the better long term pick. Leaf's problems stemmed from his immaturity and lack of support system around him. The scouting report said don't put him in immediately. San Diego put him in immediately. How did that work out?

[TC in St. Louis]

Great stuff, TC.

 

 

 

 

Thanks. I still feel that way.

[Orton's Arm]

Read what you posted again. They said they believed that Ryan Leaf was the better long term pick. Leaf's problems stemmed from his immaturity and lack of support system around him. The scouting report said don't put him in immediately. San Diego put him in immediately. How did that work out?

There is the apparently widespread misconception that you can take a QB with good physical tools but limited mental abilities, and use some combination of coaching, a good system, time for development, and other factors to eventually compensate for or balance out those mental limitations. Those who buy into this fallacy believe that a QB's demonstrated mental traits represent his level of NFL-readiness and short-term potential, but that his physical traits are more indicative of his long-term potential.

 

Nothing could be further from the truth.

 

Maybe Leaf would have been better served had he not been thrown to the wolves right away. But his career was doomed to ultimate failure either way due to his lack of commitment to football, and to his lack of the mental abilities that make a QB great.

 

Nearly every other first round QB bust has also occurred not because of some physical lack or limitation on the QB's part, but because of some flaw or shortcoming within the QB's brain. For some it's the inability to see the whole field, or to process large amounts of information quickly. (See Losman, J.P.). For others it's a lack of commitment to the game.

 

NFL strength and conditioning coaches do not assume that they can take a 90 pound weakling and turn him into a powerhouse of an offensive lineman. Why then do some assume that coaches can take a mental midget and turn him into the next Peyton Manning or Tom Brady?

[dave mcbride]

You need to understand the concept of projection. Projecting a run-first, throw-second QB with one starting season in the SEC, albeit with a national title, is not easy. Does he have a good arm? Yes. Does he makes some good throws? Yes? Can he scramble? Yes. Can he stand in and read a defense? No sure. Is he smart enough to handle to position at the NFL level? Not sure. Can he scramble out of trouble at will in the NFL when his first read isn't open and he doesn't have the patience to read his other options? No way, the linebackers are too fast. The bottomline is, you can't fall in love with a one-year wonder with questionable maturity and a very small sample of high level college games. How many other one year wonders were drafted to high and bombed? Too many to count I would offer.

 

I can't comment on Gabbert. I haven't seen him play but from what I've read, he's played in a pro-style offense (vs. Newton playing in the spread) and has done very well with it from both the mental and physical sides. And he has a larger sample of games played to judge on. The larger the sample, the closer you get to being able to project who he is. The smaller the sample, the more likely you are to over or under-estimate a player when their real abilities might be somewhere between the extremes.

 

I've said it before here and continue to.... I like Parcells criteria for drafting QBs (based on wins, games, played and graduation) as the starting point. Add in Wonderlic scores and you're in better position to make a good pick with a QB. There is a distinct traits with all SB winning QBs who I have been able to locate Wonderlic scores for, with the exception of one guy... none had scores, if I can recall correctly (have it written down somewhere), less than 22 or so, other than Bradshaw. Basically, every SB winner since 1990 has a score that higher or higher. And my point is, although you might get to the playoffs with some supreme physical talent, the stats seem to indicate that winning one requires some higher intelligence.

 

Proof: this year's SB QBs have a 35 (Rodgers) and a 25 (Roethlisberger).

 

Some recent winners, in addition to Roethlisberger, as well

 

Brady 33

P. Manning 28

E. Manning 39

Brees 28

 

However, Ryan Leaf had a 27, which is why I said that other factors matter, like Parcells criteria. Leaf bucked Parcells criteria becaus ehe didn't finish college or start and win enough games.

 

The problem with the QB in the NFL is that there is such a premium on the position that it leads to over-reaction and poor decision making on the parts of teams. So teams are willing to disregard what non-emotional, quantitative analysis says and gamble and it fails more often than not.

 

Between 2000 and 2010 29 QBs were taken in the NFL. We can call these guys unquestioned busts (1 in 3) through 2007(not enough playing time):

 

McNown

Carr

Harrington

Ramsey

Boller

Losman

Smith

Leinart

Quinn

 

Some were serviceable but ultimately didn't/haven't win/won titles or are teetering on bust status

 

Pennington

Vick

Palmer

Leftwich

Grossman

Rivers

Campbell

Young

Cutler

Rodgers

 

And these are your title winners

Roethlisberger

E. Manning

 

If Rodgers wins, that's a SB-winning QB drafted in the first round in 3 of the last 11 drafts. If not, even worse, only 2.

 

So what this long winded post means is... it's a gamble. Big time. And you have to minimize the risk and not reach in the first round because as history has shown most QBs are drafted too highly.

 

Take the best lineman and move on!

I thought this was a solid post until I got to the "serviceable/teetering on bust" category. Seriously?

 

Pennington has had a very good career all things considered, and he ended up getting injured (which cannot be predicted).

 

Rivers is awesome - possibly the second or third best QB of the last few years.

 

Vick has taken his team -- and in his case, it really is him -- to the playoffs a few times now.

 

"Super Bowl winning" is such an unfair measure for a single player in the ultimate team sport.

Edited February 25, 2011 by dave mcbride

[stony]

On the other hand, after indicating that he wouldn't throw, Christian Ponder has made the decision to throw. Per PFT (http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2011/02/22/the-latest-on-quarterbacks-combine-intentions/):

 

Expected to throw at Combine:

 

Newton, per himself.

 

Kaepernick, per PFT.

 

Locker, per himself.

 

Mallett, per SI.com.

 

Dalton, per FOX Sports’ Adam Caplan.

 

Stanzi, also per Caplan.

 

Not expected to throw at Combine:

 

Gabbert, per USA Today.

 

Ponder, per himself.

 

UPDATE (9:20 p.m. Tuesday): Ponder has decided to throw in Indy, after all.

 

The Tuscaloosa News reports that Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy will not throw at the Combine and may even miss his Pro Day due to two fractures in his right hand. The injury occurred during January’s Senior Bowl game.

Other QBs invited to Combine: Ryan Colburn (Fresno State), Pat Devlin (Delaware), Nate Enderle (Idaho), Jerrod Johnson (Texas A&M), Josh Portis (California, PA), Tyrod Taylor (Virginia Tech), Scott Tolzien (Wisconsin), Jeff Van Camp (Florida Atlantic), T.J. Yates (North Carolina).

 

 

That's too bad, he would have been a great QB to "groom as a backup." The guy has a career ahead of him as an analyst though. He was great during the ESPN's championship coverage. Guarantee it, after his pro career, you'll see him behind the desk/in the booth.

[Stl Bills]

Just providing the video. Don't shoot the messenger.

 

http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/02/25/a-lot-of-good-in-gabbert/

[MyHorseAteTheKid]

I really like Gabbert but the Bills have bigger needs.. I really can't justify taking this guy with the number 3 pick.. It's like drafting Spiller, I was floored by his college film but he wasn't a need and so far is a wasted pick!

 

BTW Fitz with his quick release has made the O-line look a lot better than it is...

[Stl Bills]

I really like Gabbert but the Bills have bigger needs.. I really can't justify taking this guy with the number 3 pick.. It's like drafting Spiller, I was floored by his college film but he wasn't a need and so far is a wasted pick!

 

BTW Fitz with his quick release has made the O-line look a lot better than it is...

I agree, I'm praying for either Robert Quinn or Nick Fairley at 3.

[dollars 2 donuts]

Guys, I hear ya, but what if he really WAS then next Ryan...would you take him then?

[Frostbelt City]

This is such a smokescreen. Watch us take Bowers or Fairley at #3 and then Kaepernick, Ponder, or Dalton (spelling?) in the 2nd round

[Stl Bills]

This is such a smokescreen. Watch us take Bowers or Fairley at #3 and then Kaepernick, Ponder, or take Dalton (spelling?)or Stanzi in the 2nd round3rd or 4th.

fixed

Edited February 25, 2011 by Stl Bills

[BUFFALOTONE]

This is such a smokescreen. Watch us take Bowers or Fairley at #3 and then Kaepernick, Ponder, or Dalton (spelling?) in the 2nd round

That's what I am thinking. Would love to take Bowers and steal Kaepernick on the way back.

[Jauronimo]

Taking a QB early in the draft always scares me. It seems like a no brainer when it works, but its devastating when it flops. After 10 years of misery it would be a tough pill to swallow using our #3 on the next Ryan Leaf. I'm not saying Gabbert is going to fail, but it seems like a huge risk that early in the draft. Especially since Gabbert's biggest accomplishment seems to be convincing Andrew Luck to stay in school. I mean that is why Blaine's stock is so high right now. Its a good thing I'm not running a pro draft.

[BuffaloRebound]

I really like Gabbert but the Bills have bigger needs.. I really can't justify taking this guy with the number 3 pick.. It's like drafting Spiller, I was floored by his college film but he wasn't a need and so far is a wasted pick!

 

BTW Fitz with his quick release has made the O-line look a lot better than it is...

 

Do we really have a bigger need than franchise QB? Don't know if Gabbert or Newton are that guy, but if Gailey can make Fitzpatrick into a decent starting QB, I'd love to see what he can do with somebody with elite talent.

[JohnC]

Just providing the video. Don't shoot the messenger.

 

http://blogs.nfl.com/2011/02/25/a-lot-of-good-in-gabbert/

 

Why should anyone shout at you? If they do, shoot back with a bigger gun. Those people who believe we have bigger needs don't realize that the Bills are rebuilding. They are years away from competing with the better teams in their own division. If our staff believes that there is a franchise qb on the board when their turn comes out they would be foolish not to take that caliber of qb.

 

Is it Gabbert, Newton, Locker or Mallett? I can't say. This is where the scouts earn their money. Fitz is a lower tier starting qb at best. If your goal as a team is to hover around being average then don't address the most important positon in this year's draft.

 

Can the Bills move down a bit and still get their favored qb with additional picks? That would be a best case scenario. But if they believe Newton or Gabbert are going to be legitimate upper tier qbs then they should simply make the pick and then address some of their other many needs with the remaining picks and free agency.

 

I'm getting tired of the stale argument that the Bills have to use the first pick to draft a player who will make an immediate impact. That is a bogus argument. Last year, not one of our rookies played at an impactful level. That is not to say that they won't develop into being good players. I'm also getting tired of the stale and cowardly argument that taking a qb with the first pick is a risk. As the Bills have proven taking any player at any position with the first round pick is a risky proposition.

 

The four qbs in the past two SBs included three first round picks and the first pick in the second round. What that clearly demonstrates that if you want to achieve a level beyond being mediocre then you have to have a sterling talent playing the most important positon for the team. As of now the Bills don't have that type of talent taking the snaps.

Edited February 25, 2011 by JohnC

[thewildrabbit]

Guys, I hear ya, but what if he really WAS then next Ryan...would you take him then?

 

You bet!!!

 

The thing is, its really to early to tell if any of this current crop of QB's is going to evolve into an elite QB, need to look at them again after the combine, and their pro days. We all will see their measureables, its the unmeasurables that are most important. work habits, study habits, first one in, last one out type of a guy.

 

Recently the scouts have been getting it right, aside from Brady Quinn and Jamarcus Russell 4 years ago...so far it looks like most teams that took a QB early have had success the last 3 years, Matt Ryan, Mark Sanchez, Sam Bradford, Matt Stafford, Josh Freeman, Joe Flacco, only Tim Tebow isn't starting.

 

After reading what Chan Gailey has had to say yesterday I'm thinking the Bills will pass on a QB in the first round (I hope so, the defense is just sad), I can't help but think that Gailey might be looking at Ponder in the 3rd round.

 

Why should anyone shout at you? If they do, shoot back with a bigger gun. Those people who believe we have bigger needs don't realize that the Bills are rebuilding. They are years away from competing with the better teams in their own division. If our staff believes that there is a franchise qb on the board when their turn comes out they would be foolish not to take that caliber of qb.

 

Is it Gabbert, Newton, Locker or Mallett? I can't say. This is where the scouts earn their money. Fitz is a lower tier starting qb at best. If your goal as a team is to hover around being average then don't address the most important positon in this year's draft.

 

Can the Bills move down a bit and still get their favored qb with additional picks? That would be a best case scenario. But if they believe Newton or Gabbert are going to be legitimate upper tier qbs then they should simply make the pick and then address some of their other many needs with the remaining picks and free agency.

 

I'm getting tired of the stale argument that the Bills have to use the first pick to draft a player who will make an immediate impact. That is a bogus argument. Last year, not one of our rookies played at an impactful level. That is not to say that they won't develop into being good players. I'm also getting tired of the stale and cowardly argument that taking a qb with the first pick is a risk. As the Bills have proven taking any player at any position with the first round pick is a risky proposition.

 

The four qbs in the past two SBs included three first round picks and the first pick in the second round. What that clearly demonstrates that if you want to achieve a level beyond being mediocre then you have to have a sterling talent playing the most important positon for the team. As of now the Bills don't have that type of talent taking the snaps.

You guys, and the armchair QB analysis....

 

Chan Gailey stated that he thinks Fitz did a great job last season, and is going to remain the starter, he also says that he has won playoff games with players that have less talent then Fitz, thats good enough for me

[BobChalmers]

Do we really have a bigger need than franchise QB?

 

LB

 

Ours were putrid last year. Poz gets hurt all the time. Right now we're counting on Merriman, Moats, and Kelsay at OLB. Yikes.

 

We're 2 or 3 LB's away from not being an embarrassment on defense.

 

Fitz (who I was never a fan of) did a pretty solid jod, and is still young himself.

Edited February 25, 2011 by BobChalmers