Horrible Drafts-why our FO is to blame for suckitude..

[Boatdrinks]

We all like to rail on John Guy for his parade of free-agent bombs on One Bills Drive. Deservedly so:his track record is abysmal and it is amazing he is still employed. But while the right free agent additions can take a team to the "next level", it is an expensive proposition. The real separation from pretender to contender is made via the draft. A little glimpse into draft history reveals the reason for our Bills' seemingly perpetual wheel spinning of what is now surely a playoff free decade. We'll go back to 2000 up to the 2004 draft,first 3 players selected. That will leave out obvious oversights by nearly all teams (Tom Brady, etc) Some were just poor judgments of talent, character, or trades for players no longer here. The blunders are astounding in some cases, but this is why we have not even achieved mediocrity.CAPS =still w/Bills

 

2000 Bills selections #26 Erik Flowers ,#58 Travares tillman, #89 Corey Moore

Passed on: Keith Bulluck (#30), Marvel Smith(#38) Anthony Becht(#27), Darwin Walker(#71) Na'il Diggs(#98)

2001 Bills selections #21 Nate Clements, #46 AARON SCHOBEL #58 Travis Henry

Passed on: Ryan Pickett(#29) Reggie Wayne(#30) Todd Heap(#31) Drew Brees(#32) Matt Light(#48)

2002 Bills selections #4 Mike Williams, #36 JOSH REED, #61 RYAN DENNEY

Passed on: Bryant McKinnie(#7)John Henderson(#9),Dwight Freeney (#11) Albert Haynesworth(#15) Charles Grant (#25)LeCharles Bentley(#44)

2003 Bills selections #13 to NE for D Bledsoe(Ty Warren), #23 Willis McGahee, #48 CHRIS KELSAY

Could have had with 13th pick- Troy Polomalu (#16),Calvin Pace (#18)/Passed on: Dallas Clark (#24), Anquan Boldin (#54), Osi Umenyiora (#56)

2004 Bills selections: #13 LEE EVANS, #22 J.P. Losman,(#43 to Dallas/ Julius Jones) #74 Tim Anderson

Passed on Tommie Harris (#14), Vince Wilfork(#21), Steven Jackson (#24), Benjamin Watson (#32),Jake Grove (#45),Max Starks (#75)

[Red]

We all like to rail on John Guy for his parade of free-agent bombs on One Bills Drive. Deservedly so:his track record is abysmal and it is amazing he is still employed. But while the right free agent additions can take a team to the "next level", it is an expensive proposition. The real separation from pretender to contender is made via the draft. A little glimpse into draft history reveals the reason for our Bills' seemingly perpetual wheel spinning of what is now surely a playoff free decade. We'll go back to 2000 up to the 2004 draft,first 3 players selected. That will leave out obvious oversights by nearly all teams (Tom Brady, etc) Some were just poor judgments of talent, character, or trades for players no longer here. The blunders are astounding in some cases, but this is why we have not even achieved mediocrity.CAPS =still w/Bills

 

2000 Bills selections #26 Erik Flowers ,#58 Travares tillman, #89 Corey Moore

Passed on: Keith Bulluck (#30), Marvel Smith(#38) Anthony Becht(#27), Darwin Walker(#71) Na'il Diggs(#98)

2001 Bills selections #21 Nate Clements, #46 AARON SCHOBEL #58 Travis Henry

Passed on: Ryan Pickett(#29) Reggie Wayne(#30) Todd Heap(#31) Drew Brees(#32) Matt Light(#48)

2002 Bills selections #4 Mike Williams, #36 JOSH REED, #61 RYAN DENNEY

Passed on: Bryant McKinnie(#7)John Henderson(#9),Dwight Freeney (#11) Albert Haynesworth(#15) Charles Grant (#25)LeCharles Bentley(#44)

2003 Bills selections #13 to NE for D Bledsoe(Ty Warren), #23 Willis McGahee, #48 CHRIS KELSAY

Could have had with 13th pick- Troy Polomalu (#16),Calvin Pace (#18)/Passed on: Dallas Clark (#24), Anquan Boldin (#54), Osi Umenyiora (#56)

 

 

2004 Bills selections: #13 LEE EVANS, #22 J.P. Losman,(#43 to Dallas/ Julius Jones) #74 Tim Anderson

Passed on Tommie Harris (#14), Vince Wilfork(#21), Steven Jackson (#24), Benjamin Watson (#32),Jake Grove (#45),Max Starks (#75)

 

 

Hey bud- I already covered this in another post.

 

Between 2000-2005, the Bills have retained all of 6 out of 50 draft picks.

[Boatdrinks]

Hey bud- I already covered this in another post.

 

Between 2000-2005, the Bills have retained all of 6 out of 50 draft picks.

 

 

Well, I didn't see it. But our continual mediocrity merits a look at this subject. While the numbers are fascinating, (and thoroughly disgusting for a professional team) the names really got me interested when I checked the draft history. It's amazing the players that were available when those selections were made. I mean, a good front office is going to miss once in awhile. But we missed out on sometimes 4 or 5 top quality players that were taken right around our picks. That is a sign of serious incompetence in this organization.

[b stein 22]

This is what happens when you have ralph's daughter trying to pick good players and Failing to do so

[WVUFootball29]

This is what happens when you have ralph's daughter trying to pick good players and Failing to do so

 

bingo, we have a winner.

[Fezmid]

2001 Bills selections #21 Nate Clements, #46 AARON SCHOBEL #58 Travis Henry

Passed on: Ryan Pickett(#29) Reggie Wayne(#30) Todd Heap(#31) Drew Brees(#32) Matt Light(#48)

2002 Bills selections #4 Mike Williams, #36 JOSH REED, #61 RYAN DENNEY

Passed on: Bryant McKinnie(#7)John Henderson(#9),Dwight Freeney (#11) Albert Haynesworth(#15) Charles Grant (#25)LeCharles Bentley(#44)

2003 Bills selections #13 to NE for D Bledsoe(Ty Warren), #23 Willis McGahee, #48 CHRIS KELSAY

Could have had with 13th pick- Troy Polomalu (#16),Calvin Pace (#18)/Passed on: Dallas Clark (#24), Anquan Boldin (#54), Osi Umenyiora (#56)

2004 Bills selections: #13 LEE EVANS, #22 J.P. Losman,(#43 to Dallas/ Julius Jones) #74 Tim Anderson

Passed on Tommie Harris (#14), Vince Wilfork(#21), Steven Jackson (#24), Benjamin Watson (#32),Jake Grove (#45),Max Starks (#75)

 

In 2000, we had a lame duck drafting, ready to pick up his tent and fly to SD.

 

In 2001, we had a good draft -- Clements became the highest paid corner in the league, Schobel is still with the team and playing at a high level (see how we fell apart once again once he was out of the game? Kinda like we were flying high until he was injured last year), and Henry turned out to be a very good HB until the drug thing... But I believe we traded him for a pick, right?

 

In 2002, we missed on our first pick -- but it was hardly a "risky" pick. Sometimes these things happen. Reed and Denney are still on the team. Half those people you listed would NEVER have been selected with the 4th overall pick either -- and Buffalo reportedly tried trading out of the spot but found no takers.

 

In 2003, we drafted Willis - a dangerous pick, but we ended up getting some years out of him and a draft pick when we traded him (Edwards - still on the team, for now), and Kelsay is still on the team as well - and has been looking decent this year too.

 

I'm failing to see how our drafts were "terrible," based on your post. It's easy to cherry pick the big names after the fact -- but it's also telling that, for example, you could only find 6 players in the top 75 picks in 2004 that Buffalo should've picked. The draft is a crap shoot. And bad teams make it even worse by destroying players, IMHO (ie: Losman, Edwards, and every other QB since Kelly).

[Brandon]

Honestly, I don't think our drafts have been particularly bad. The front office has failed to find elite difference makers, but they have found a good number of solid contributors in every round. I don't think they're the best in the league or anything, but the college scouting staff seems fairly low on the list of problem areas, IMO. The fact that they've retained relatively few of their draftees over the years is a testament both to the cheapness of the front office and the lack of stability in the coaching staff and the tendency of new staffs to clean house.

 

The pro personnel department under John Guy? That IS a total mess, I'll grant you that.

[DanInSouthBuffalo]

The pro personnel department under John Guy? That IS a total mess, I'll grant you that.

 

The REAL problem + the limited amount of $$$ to work with.

[BuffaloRebound]

Honestly, I don't think our drafts have been particularly bad. The front office has failed to find elite difference makers, but they have found a good number of solid contributors in every round. I don't think they're the best in the league or anything, but the college scouting staff seems fairly low on the list of problem areas, IMO. The fact that they've retained relatively few of their draftees over the years is a testament both to the cheapness of the front office and the lack of stability in the coaching staff and the tendency of new staffs to clean house.

 

The pro personnel department under John Guy? That IS a total mess, I'll grant you that.

 

Good post.

 

I'll add that when you don't have good QB play, a good Offensive Line, or a good pass rush, everything else is just polishing a turd. Donahoe, Levy, and Brandon have proven they don't know how to build a winning team, and it all floats down-hill from that.

[Saint Doug]

How about this: perhaps the horrendous coaching and leadership we've had in the last 10+ years has squandered these picks' talent and failed to develop them into solid NFL players? Maybe these players we "missed" on would've just settled into the career graveyard we have here at OBD if we had drafted them.

[Boatdrinks]

[quote name='Fezmid' date='Nov 1 2009, 10:16 PM' post='1621559'

 

 

I'm failing to see how our drafts were "terrible," based on your post. It's easy to cherry pick the big names after the fact -- but it's also telling that, for example, you could only find 6 players in the top 75 picks in 2004 that Buffalo should've picked. The draft is a crap shoot. And bad teams make it even worse by destroying players, IMHO (ie: Losman, Edwards, and every other QB since Kelly).

 

What you are failing to see is the bigger picture. There were plenty of other names, I just gave a condensed version, primarily of players drafted "around" our pick #'s and that were available. It's not like those were the only other good choices, just some major notables. Pointing out that Josh reed and Ryan Denney are still on the team furthers my point. Those are hardly elite players, or even solid starters in the case of Denney. Reed has grown into a dependable third WR, that's all. What you missed as well is that a pick no longer with your team is a wasted pick. A roster spot to fill through other , more expensive means for the quality. Not the stuff of which champions are made. Also a lack of foresight, drafting WR's and DB's,ignoring the DL and OL. Attempting to build your team from outside in, not inside out. Big men on both lines are what the good teams build around. Keep telling yourself that the draft is a crapshoot, though and excusing the incompetence. Good GM's draft consistently well. I doubt Bill Polian's draft board is a dart board. You tip your hand when you say we "destroyed" JP Losman or Trent Edwards. They simply aren't very good. JP is in the UFL right now, I think. Talent wins out. Some like yourself try to make this game more complicated than it is. There's a reason why a Tom Brady doesn't happen every year. The first 3 rounds of the draft are no crapshoot. They are the building blocks of your team. GM's get paid big bucks to be right more often than not.The Colts were a joke of a team when they drafted Peyton Manning. They did not "destroy" him. Last season, almost our entire starting OL was drafted by other teams. A hideous track record however you slice it and clearly among the worst in the NFL.

[Boatdrinks]

Honestly, I don't think our drafts have been particularly bad. The front office has failed to find elite difference makers, but they have found a good number of solid contributors in every round. I don't think they're the best in the league or anything, but the college scouting staff seems fairly low on the list of problem areas, IMO.

 

 

You couldn't be further off base. That is EXACTLY why they are terrible.. No elite difference makers drafting relatively high year in and year out. Solid contributors in later rounds? Yes, though that is the "crapshoot" portion of the draft. The first three rounds had better yield difference makers. It clearly hasn't. We used to have an elite level scouting staff under Bill Polian, and AJ Smith. We are obviously among the worst in the league now. Hardly any drafted elite level talents. Most of our "name "players are free agents. Take a look at rosters of good teams and see how many of their better players were drafted by them. The difference is glaring.

[Boatdrinks]

How about this: perhaps the horrendous coaching and leadership we've had in the last 10+ years has squandered these picks' talent and failed to develop them into solid NFL players? Maybe these players we "missed" on would've just settled into the career graveyard we have here at OBD if we had drafted them.

 

 

Let's be serious. Everyone loves focusing on the intangibles like "leadership". Talent wins games. It's more important than coaching. Football is a simple game that we love to make complicated. Kick the ass of the guy in front of you, and you'll win a lot of games. Bill Belichick was a career losing head coach until he had Tom Brady. We've chosen bad head coaches, but that is the FO as well. Look at all the young coaches winning in the league. You don't need a big name head coach. You do need a clue how to build a winning team. And some luck. We just don't have nearly enough good players to build around do to squandered draft picks that are no longer on our roster, and we're constantly trying to patch holes. We've drafted exactly ONE Pro Bowl OL since 1987, and have been looking for a good tight end since the mid 90's. You don't think Jeremy Shockey, Todd Heap, or Dallas Clark would have been any good, just because they were playing in Buffalo?

[Orton's Arm]

In 2001, we had a good draft -- Clements became the highest paid corner in the league, Schobel is still with the team and playing at a high level (see how we fell apart once again once he was out of the game? Kinda like we were flying high until he was injured last year), and Henry turned out to be a very good HB until the drug thing... But I believe we traded him for a pick, right?

 

The 2001 draft was a tactical victory, but not a strategic victory. The tactical victory side of it is the part you mentioned: Clements, Schobel, and (for a while) Henry had good to very good careers. But the Henry pick was a 2nd round draft choice to try to upgrade the RB position, when we already had Antowain Smith. After the Bills took Henry, they released Smith; getting nothing in return. The Bills should have stuck with Smith; and should have used that second round pick on a guy at a position of greater need. For example, on an offensive lineman who could have given us ten solid but unspectacular years.

 

Nate Clements was a tactical victory, but a strategic defeat. The reason why the Bills took a CB in the first round of 2001 was because the plan was to let Antoine Winfield go first contract and out. Winfield was a very successful CB who'd been taken in the first round a few years earlier. TD should have known that, if whatever thought process he used would result in letting Winfield go first contract and out, it would also result in letting Clements go first contract and out when his time came.

 

Clements' contract expired when TD was still the GM. Marv squeezed an extra year out of him with the franchise tag, but ultimately that was yet another case of using a first round pick on a CB destined to leave after his first contract. Are good teams built by letting their most successful first round picks go first contract and out?

In 2002, we missed on our first pick -- but it was hardly a "risky" pick.

I'm not sure if I agree with that. The teams with the best draft track records place a heavy emphasis on "football character"--passion for the game, work ethic, and mental toughness. All traits Mike Williams lacked. Would those successful drafting teams have been able to figure out that he lacked those traits, prior to the draft? I don't know the answer to that. But I did notice a general tendency on TD's part to place a significantly heavier emphasis on physical traits than some other teams did; while de-emphasizing the mental and character side of the equation.

In 2003, we drafted Willis - a dangerous pick, but we ended up getting some years out of him and a draft pick when we traded him (Edwards - still on the team, for now), and Kelsay is still on the team as well - and has been looking decent this year too.

McGahee was another strategic error--the team should not have addressed the RB position--again!--when there were other holes to fill. There was an offensive lineman that Bill from NYC wanted, who went a few picks after McGahee. That guy went on to have a very good career; while the Bills' line is still struggling.

 

We got two third round picks for McGahee. According to the draft value chart, the 15th pick in the 2nd round is less than half as valuable as the 15th pick in the first. And the 15th pick in the 3rd round is less than half as valuable as the 15th pick in the second. Turning a first round pick into two 3rd rounders will typically cause you to lose more than half your draft day value.

The draft is a crap shoot.

I'm not sure exactly what you mean by that. But if you're implying that differences in teams' draft-day outcomes are entirely attributable to luck, then I'd strongly disagree. While there's certainly a strong element of random variation involved, the draft will, over time, reward those teams which are the most intelligent and disciplined in their player evaluation and selection process. A Bill Polian will, on average, get you significantly better results on draft day than will a Matt Millen.

And bad teams make it even worse by destroying players, IMHO (ie: Losman, Edwards, and every other QB since Kelly).

I'll grant that Buffalo hasn't been a first-rate destination for QBs, because of the lack of an offensive line (see above), bad coaching, and other factors. But let's be real here: it's not like the only thing standing between Todd Collins, Billy Joe Hobart, or J.P. Losman and the Hall of Fame was the Bills' organizational incompetence. Those guys would have failed or been relegated to backup roles on just about any team for which they played. (Not that Hobart or Losman would necessarily have made the final roster.)

[billsfan714]

2005-Roscoe Parrish in the 2nd, the midget receiver, a few picks later, Vincent Jackson 6'5 Wr who had a ton of TDS in college and had a great combine. Another Donohoe gem.

[Thoner7]

Fast forwards to 2009.

 

Maybin > Orakpo !? ........

 

The problems still exist

[Fezmid]

What you missed as well is that a pick no longer with your team is a wasted pick. A roster spot to fill through other , more expensive means for the quality.

How can you say not re-signing a player is just like making a bad draft move......????

 

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree (as some others disagree with you as well).

[Kipers Hair]

I'm failing to see how our drafts were "terrible," based on your post. It's easy to cherry pick the big names after the fact -- but it's also telling that, for example, you could only find 6 players in the top 75 picks in 2004 that Buffalo should've picked. The draft is a crap shoot. And bad teams make it even worse by destroying players, IMHO (ie: Losman, Edwards, and every other QB since Kelly).

Wow - this was a who cares post until you gave your thoughts on the picks...With the exception of the Clements and Shobel years - the Bills sucked as bad as you possibly could. No arguments - bad - missed obvious selections. Whomever pointed to Ralphs kid was probably right, but I still see our futility and head scratching choices when I would think 1/2 the people on this board would have fared better....

[Boatdrinks]

How can you say not re-signing a player is just like making a bad draft move......????

 

I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree (as some others disagree with you as well).

 

 

It's simple. You don't let your best players get away, you re-sign them. You are going to lose some to FA, but you tend to keep the really important ones. There is a reason why quality LT's, QB's, DL's are rare breeds on the free agent market. Teams usu. don't let them get away. Good skill position players tend to be more available as they are easier to find in the draft. They also tend to be the most overpaid in FA for the talent level. So a drafted player not re-signed after their rookie deal is essentially a wasted pick. You need to find quality starters in rounds 1-3.

[Fezmid]

It's simple. You don't let your best players get away, you re-sign them. You are going to lose some to FA, but you tend to keep the really important ones. There is a reason why quality LT's, QB's, DL's are rare breeds on the free agent market. Teams usu. don't let them get away. Good skill position players tend to be more available as they are easier to find in the draft. They also tend to be the most overpaid in FA for the talent level. So a drafted player not re-signed after their rookie deal is essentially a wasted pick. You need to find quality starters in rounds 1-3.

Your comparing drafting to front office signings... They're different beasts.

[Boatdrinks]

Your comparing drafting to front office signings... They're different beasts.

 

 

They are cut from the same cloth and both handled by the GM. You don't let elite guys hit free agency. You calculate their value to the roster and if they can be replaced via free agency or the draft. Pro personnel simply scouts players already in the league. The GM is the architect and draft/FA signings are all on his desk.

[Alphadawg7]

We all like to rail on John Guy for his parade of free-agent bombs on One Bills Drive. Deservedly so:his track record is abysmal and it is amazing he is still employed. But while the right free agent additions can take a team to the "next level", it is an expensive proposition. The real separation from pretender to contender is made via the draft. A little glimpse into draft history reveals the reason for our Bills' seemingly perpetual wheel spinning of what is now surely a playoff free decade. We'll go back to 2000 up to the 2004 draft,first 3 players selected. That will leave out obvious oversights by nearly all teams (Tom Brady, etc) Some were just poor judgments of talent, character, or trades for players no longer here. The blunders are astounding in some cases, but this is why we have not even achieved mediocrity.CAPS =still w/Bills

 

2000 Bills selections #26 Erik Flowers ,#58 Travares tillman, #89 Corey Moore

Passed on: Keith Bulluck (#30), Marvel Smith(#38) Anthony Becht(#27), Darwin Walker(#71) Na'il Diggs(#98)

2001 Bills selections #21 Nate Clements, #46 AARON SCHOBEL #58 Travis Henry

Passed on: Ryan Pickett(#29) Reggie Wayne(#30) Todd Heap(#31) Drew Brees(#32) Matt Light(#48)

2002 Bills selections #4 Mike Williams, #36 JOSH REED, #61 RYAN DENNEY

Passed on: Bryant McKinnie(#7)John Henderson(#9),Dwight Freeney (#11) Albert Haynesworth(#15) Charles Grant (#25)LeCharles Bentley(#44)

2003 Bills selections #13 to NE for D Bledsoe(Ty Warren), #23 Willis McGahee, #48 CHRIS KELSAY

Could have had with 13th pick- Troy Polomalu (#16),Calvin Pace (#18)/Passed on: Dallas Clark (#24), Anquan Boldin (#54), Osi Umenyiora (#56)

2004 Bills selections: #13 LEE EVANS, #22 J.P. Losman,(#43 to Dallas/ Julius Jones) #74 Tim Anderson

Passed on Tommie Harris (#14), Vince Wilfork(#21), Steven Jackson (#24), Benjamin Watson (#32),Jake Grove (#45),Max Starks (#75)

 

This was a different front office than we have now...so what does this have to do with today? There are MANY NFL teams that can make this very same crap list of people they missed on.

 

Secondly, we just had easily one of the 3 best drafts, if not the best draft of 2009...convenient how you left that off the list

[Orton's Arm]

Your comparing drafting to front office signings... They're different beasts.

I think his point is that if the Bills have a policy of not re-signing top-tier CBs beyond their first contract, it doesn't make sense to use first round picks on CBs. A team should use its first and second round picks on guys expected to be with the team for the long haul; not players expected to go first contract and out.

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

I think his point is that if the Bills have a policy of not re-signing top-tier CBs beyond their first contract, it doesn't make sense to use first round picks on CBs. A team should use its first and second round picks on guys expected to be with the team for the long haul; not players expected to go first contract and out.

I do not think that is the Bills policy at all though.

 

They pretty clearly seemed to have every intention of resigning Winfield the year before he hit FA as the reports in Bills Daily and in the general media I saw were that negotiations were moving along between TD and Winfield. The Bills had set aside $4-6 million annually under their cap which they had for extending Winfield. They were negotiating with each side moving toward the last minute when pre-season ended to get the best deal they could.

 

However, unexpectedly, Lawyer Milloy came onto the market when Belicheat misread how far he was willing to go. TD, who had seen his plan A and Plan B at SS, Chad Cota and Ainsley Battle both signed with the Bills but retired after carting their old bodies to training camp. The Bills were left with a plan C of starting Coy Wire at SS and TD allocated the $ set aside for Winfield to sign Milloy (at least according to reputable sources like Winfield who lamented that these were simply the breaks).

 

In addition to the clear desire to sign Winfield except cap circumstances intruded, I think few and now no one disagrees with the decision to not sign Clements to the biggest contract ever given to a defensive player that the market required for the 9ers to get him.

 

There was some understandable whining that Marv should have not given away the right to tag him if we did not want to give him a huge deal, but not only has time proven that not signing him to a huge contract was the right move. but actually in the short term we gave up nothing in terms of $ for a year of relative peace.

 

Greer also was a player who never really was good enough in his early years here to force his way into the starting line-up as several other Bills like McGee, Williams, and even Ellison have done. He also has been adequately replaced with FA signings like Drayton, so I think this was a good choice as well.

 

I do not see clear signs nor has there been some declaration by the Bills of there being an absolute policy not to resign CBs.

[John from Riverside]

I truly thought that this years (and last years) drafts were pretty good ones.....I thought this year they were starting to get it by actually drafting early on the offensive and defensive lines......

 

The problem is there are no veterans playing next to these guys the whole team is too young and the LEADERSHIP of the team then falls to a coaching staff that is not strong or proven they can get it done......hard to tell somebody else to do something and them have confidence in it when you haven't proven you know what you are talking about....that is MANAGEMENTS fault

 

I still think Maybin is going to be a good pick......I know most dont agree. But it wont be this year.

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

We all like to rail on John Guy for his parade of free-agent bombs on One Bills Drive. Deservedly so:his track record is abysmal and it is amazing he is still employed. But while the right free agent additions can take a team to the "next level", it is an expensive proposition. The real separation from pretender to contender is made via the draft. A little glimpse into draft history reveals the reason for our Bills' seemingly perpetual wheel spinning of what is now surely a playoff free decade. We'll go back to 2000 up to the 2004 draft,first 3 players selected. That will leave out obvious oversights by nearly all teams (Tom Brady, etc) Some were just poor judgments of talent, character, or trades for players no longer here. The blunders are astounding in some cases, but this is why we have not even achieved mediocrity.CAPS =still w/Bills

 

2000 Bills selections #26 Erik Flowers ,#58 Travares tillman, #89 Corey Moore

Passed on: Keith Bulluck (#30), Marvel Smith(#38) Anthony Becht(#27), Darwin Walker(#71) Na'il Diggs(#98)

2001 Bills selections #21 Nate Clements, #46 AARON SCHOBEL #58 Travis Henry

Passed on: Ryan Pickett(#29) Reggie Wayne(#30) Todd Heap(#31) Drew Brees(#32) Matt Light(#48)

2002 Bills selections #4 Mike Williams, #36 JOSH REED, #61 RYAN DENNEY

Passed on: Bryant McKinnie(#7)John Henderson(#9),Dwight Freeney (#11) Albert Haynesworth(#15) Charles Grant (#25)LeCharles Bentley(#44)

2003 Bills selections #13 to NE for D Bledsoe(Ty Warren), #23 Willis McGahee, #48 CHRIS KELSAY

Could have had with 13th pick- Troy Polomalu (#16),Calvin Pace (#18)/Passed on: Dallas Clark (#24), Anquan Boldin (#54), Osi Umenyiora (#56)

2004 Bills selections: #13 LEE EVANS, #22 J.P. Losman,(#43 to Dallas/ Julius Jones) #74 Tim Anderson

Passed on Tommie Harris (#14), Vince Wilfork(#21), Steven Jackson (#24), Benjamin Watson (#32),Jake Grove (#45),Max Starks (#75)

I agree that the FO (and actually the owner who hired them) bear ultimate responsibility for our suckitude. However, I do not think you present a compelling case that consistently bad drafting was the cause of this. I think you make the common mistake of folks who have drunk the Mel Kiper Kool-Aid of viewing the draft as if it is something which can be calculated and figured out. Actually, most of what can be calculated is done for everyone and shared at the Combine.

 

When one adds in the variables of what a specific teams specific needs are (if you have Brett Favre you do not draft Peyton Manning) and dumb luck (injuries and other stuff) the draft is pretty much a crapshoot.

 

The simple fact is while the conventional wisdom is a first round pick should be a first round starter, the actual truth is that only a hair above half of first round picks are starters their first year.

 

From any given draft, there is a strong bias to those first year starters being among the first 10 picks. In the past decade the Bills have had two of those picks Williams was a clear bust (though not the worst pick in that same draft as we wasted a #4 on Williams but Det wasted a #3 on Harrington.

 

The Bills have had their strong share of miscues in the last decade of drafting, but particularly in the last few years have gotten some contributions from several second day choices as well.

 

Since you do not lay out several examples of other teams who did obviously better with their drafting, the misses and hits of Bills drafting points to our FO not getting it right but remains unproven or unsubstantiated for the claims you make.

[Astrobot]

I truly thought that this years (and last years) drafts were pretty good ones.....I thought this year they were starting to get it by actually drafting early on the offensive and defensive lines......

 

The problem is there are no veterans playing next to these guys the whole team is too young and the LEADERSHIP of the team then falls to a coaching staff that is not strong or proven they can get it done......hard to tell somebody else to do something and them have confidence in it when you haven't proven you know what you are talking about....that is MANAGEMENTS fault

 

I still think Maybin is going to be a good pick......I know most dont agree. But it wont be this year.

+1

[bills in va]

We all like to rail on John Guy for his parade of free-agent bombs on One Bills Drive. Deservedly so:his track record is abysmal and it is amazing he is still employed. But while the right free agent additions can take a team to the "next level", it is an expensive proposition. The real separation from pretender to contender is made via the draft. A little glimpse into draft history reveals the reason for our Bills' seemingly perpetual wheel spinning of what is now surely a playoff free decade. We'll go back to 2000 up to the 2004 draft,first 3 players selected. That will leave out obvious oversights by nearly all teams (Tom Brady, etc) Some were just poor judgments of talent, character, or trades for players no longer here. The blunders are astounding in some cases, but this is why we have not even achieved mediocrity.CAPS =still w/Bills

 

2000 Bills selections #26 Erik Flowers ,#58 Travares tillman, #89 Corey Moore

Passed on: Keith Bulluck (#30), Marvel Smith(#38) Anthony Becht(#27), Darwin Walker(#71) Na'il Diggs(#98)

2001 Bills selections #21 Nate Clements, #46 AARON SCHOBEL #58 Travis Henry

Passed on: Ryan Pickett(#29) Reggie Wayne(#30) Todd Heap(#31) Drew Brees(#32) Matt Light(#48)

2002 Bills selections #4 Mike Williams, #36 JOSH REED, #61 RYAN DENNEY

Passed on: Bryant McKinnie(#7)John Henderson(#9),Dwight Freeney (#11) Albert Haynesworth(#15) Charles Grant (#25)LeCharles Bentley(#44)

2003 Bills selections #13 to NE for D Bledsoe(Ty Warren), #23 Willis McGahee, #48 CHRIS KELSAY

Could have had with 13th pick- Troy Polomalu (#16),Calvin Pace (#18)/Passed on: Dallas Clark (#24), Anquan Boldin (#54), Osi Umenyiora (#56)

2004 Bills selections: #13 LEE EVANS, #22 J.P. Losman,(#43 to Dallas/ Julius Jones) #74 Tim Anderson

Passed on Tommie Harris (#14), Vince Wilfork(#21), Steven Jackson (#24), Benjamin Watson (#32),Jake Grove (#45),Max Starks (#75)

We got Jarius Byrd right though!

[Estro]

Honestly, I don't think our drafts have been particularly bad. The front office has failed to find elite difference makers, but they have found a good number of solid contributors in every round. I don't think they're the best in the league or anything, but the college scouting staff seems fairly low on the list of problem areas, IMO. The fact that they've retained relatively few of their draftees over the years is a testament both to the cheapness of the front office and the lack of stability in the coaching staff and the tendency of new staffs to clean house.

 

The pro personnel department under John Guy? That IS a total mess, I'll grant you that.

 

Like not having the foresight to offer Jabari Greer a contract prior to days before he was headed for FA. The guy did nothing but work his butt off for the Bills and when given the shot began to develop big time on the field. The Bills go ahead and take McKelvin with the #11 pick and Greer once again has an outstanding season and the Bills don't have the resources to resign him because they just invested a lot of money in McKelvin. Why they couldn't have extended an offer to Greer the previous offseason and then used the #11 pick on someone other than McKelvin is beyong me. They're is no doubt in my mind that had the Bills offered Greer the contract they ultimately offered him (5 years - $20 million) 12 months prior, probably even during the '08 season he would've resigned. The Bills simply let him showcase his talent for the rest of the league and then watched him walk to make another team that much better.

 

Watching guys like Greer and Pat Williams and Antoine Winfield make tons of plays for their "new" teams reminds me of why the Bills suck. They lose good players and squander draft picks on worse players in an attempt to replace the players they let walk.

[Orton's Arm]

I do not think that is the Bills policy at all though.

 

They pretty clearly seemed to have every intention of resigning Winfield the year before he hit FA as the reports in Bills Daily and in the general media I saw were that negotiations were moving along between TD and Winfield. The Bills had set aside $4-6 million annually under their cap which they had for extending Winfield. They were negotiating with each side moving toward the last minute when pre-season ended to get the best deal they could.

 

However, unexpectedly, Lawyer Milloy came onto the market when Belicheat misread how far he was willing to go. TD, who had seen his plan A and Plan B at SS, Chad Cota and Ainsley Battle both signed with the Bills but retired after carting their old bodies to training camp. The Bills were left with a plan C of starting Coy Wire at SS and TD allocated the $ set aside for Winfield to sign Milloy (at least according to reputable sources like Winfield who lamented that these were simply the breaks).

 

In addition to the clear desire to sign Winfield except cap circumstances intruded, I think few and now no one disagrees with the decision to not sign Clements to the biggest contract ever given to a defensive player that the market required for the 9ers to get him.

 

There was some understandable whining that Marv should have not given away the right to tag him if we did not want to give him a huge deal, but not only has time proven that not signing him to a huge contract was the right move. but actually in the short term we gave up nothing in terms of $ for a year of relative peace.

 

Greer also was a player who never really was good enough in his early years here to force his way into the starting line-up as several other Bills like McGee, Williams, and even Ellison have done. He also has been adequately replaced with FA signings like Drayton, so I think this was a good choice as well.

 

I do not see clear signs nor has there been some declaration by the Bills of there being an absolute policy not to resign CBs.

You've made a good point about how TD took the Winfield money and used it on Milloy instead. (Well, part of it anyway. The rest went to Troy Vincent.)

 

Back when that decision was made, the Bills were in rebuilding mode. They didn't have a strong core of young or mid-age good players. TD's decision to spend the money on Vincent and Milloy instead of Winfield might have made sense for a team on the verge of being a threat to go to the Super Bowl. A team that's that close could justifiably put the short-term ahead of the long run. But the Bills were very far from being that. For them, it made much more sense to choose the young, very good player (Winfield) instead of the two decent aging veterans (Milloy and Vincent). Unfortunately, TD was unable to see this, because of his short-sightedness, lack of strategic vision, and because he got greedy when Milloy became a free agent.

 

Having watched Winfield walk out the door, and play well for the Vikings, you'd think that TD would have made more of an effort to avoid having the same thing happen twice. Instead, TD watched as Clements' contract expired. Having a first round pick go first contract and out is a failure story. One could attribute the failure to picking the wrong player (i.e., one unworthy of a second contract), to picking a player who plays an overpaid position (such as CB), or to management failing to give adequate priority to extending the contracts of its draft picks. Perhaps all three factors played at least some role in Clements' quick departure.

 

I'd also argue those factors contributed to the loss of Greer (whom you underrate). If we'd extended Greer before that draft, we wouldn't have needed to use the 11th overall pick on McKelvin. That would have freed up the pick for use on a position of need. (Instead of using it on a position of self-created need.) My concerns about the Greer/McKelvin swap are very slightly mitigated by the fact that most draft experts felt that McKelvin was the best player available when we picked. But like you said yourself, when you have Brett Favre, you don't draft Peyton Manning. This was a case of drafting Peyton Manning, while letting Favre's contract expire shortly thereafter. (Not that either Greer or McKelvin are remotely comparable to Favre or Manning.)

 

Brandon's second year as GM was a lot more successful than his first. He used three of his first four picks on linemen; and the one non-lineman pick he made was Jairus Byrd. There's nothing wrong with any of that, assuming the Maybin pick pans out. As important as any of his draft picks was the fact that he extended McGee. That's one less future instance of the Bills using a first round pick on a CB!

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

Watching guys like Greer and Pat Williams and Antoine Winfield make tons of plays for their "new" teams reminds me of why the Bills suck. They lose good players and squander draft picks on worse players in an attempt to replace the players they let walk.

Yes Virginia the Bills in fact do suck. However having these 3 leave as FA is not an indicator of why they suck as each of these players left not due to some congenital lack of foresight in not extending these players but due to marketplace specifics in each case.

 

1. Winfield is probably the worse example of anyone maintaining that the Bills made a decision to let him walk and lacked foresight as to his skills and teambuilding. He left here after the 2003 season but press reports went into detail after the 2002 season of negotiations going on between Winfield's agent and the Bills to extend his deal a full season before he was eligible for FA. The reality was that 1. the unexpected happened as two of the vets the Bills signed to play SS (Chad Cota and Ainsley Battle) both retired after coming to the Bills camp and left us with Coy Wire as our likely SS. and 2. Lawyer Milloy suddenly and unexpectedly came on the market as an FA and the Bills used the cap room they had set aside to extend Winfield to grab Milloy.

 

They showed every intention of showing the foresight to extend Winfield but reality saw him enter FA. Ultimately the Bills (and the rest of the league lusting after AW) were simply unable to match the contract MN used to get AW as they had a ton of cap room due to a favorable arbiters finding that multi-millions charged to their cap the year before in fact was not legally charged to their cap.

 

2. Williams is probably the best example though of the Bills not having the foresight to to make the right deal. They did have the foresight to want him back and they did not want him to leave. TD however had his own Bellicheatian moment and miscalculated what a vet would do when the FO plated the tough guy in negotiations over chump change. TD made an offer and probably told Williams agent that was all he could do or may have invited him to get a better deal elsewhere. Phat Pat went and signed a deal with MN which was for less money than TD would have eventually offered, but the damage was done and PW was gone leaving TD to complain publicly that Phat Pat's agent had not communicated a higher offer to his client. Yeah right. TD actually proved to be pretty good at reading and playing the market (he ripped a new one for ATL in the Peerless deal and for TN when he got a first day pick for druggie Henry, but he got schooled on the Williams deal. The problem though was not the Bills deciding to let the FA walk it was letting the FA walk when they had money they were willing to pay him higher than the contract he signed.

 

3. I think you also do not have the Greer/McKelvin situation totally correct. Greer actually showed good play in pre-season going horizontal against DET on one play I remember for an INT and making a heads up play for an INT in another preseason game. Yet despite these outstanding performances when the games did not count, he could not produce these results on the field despite getting starts in both his rookie year and a couple of starts his second year but he did not log an INT.

 

His third season saw a bit of a regression as he could not even crack the starting line-up and produced no INTs olaying mostly a nickel role. ST was a very important thing on this team as Bobby April was making this a key part for a dismal team and Greer did not even earn a look at being a key position player by starring on ST.

 

ST performance was also a key to why they chose McKelvin. The Bills really thought he was a top 10 pick who when he was available to them at pick #11 they had to look twice. Looking at his KR ability and having the foresight to see McGee might be the shutdown CV they needed if he could focus only on the CB game and give up return duty and also Parrosh was a talented return guy but a bit of a smurf on the injury front, McKelvin was a pretty obvious choice as Greer could never deliver the potential ST benefits McKelvin could and even if Greer suddenly produced well as a CB he had been inconsistent in this regard his first few years.

 

The FO of the Bills definitely sucks (with the problems starting at the demonstrated record of failure right at the top) but letting D players pursue their contractual rights is not demonstrated as a reason why they suck based on the reality of what happened.

[Wilson from Gamehendge]

Coulda, shoulda, woulda...give it up already.

 

You could make this argument on EVERY SINGLE TEAM IN THE NFL!

 

Yes, we seem to make mistakes more often than others, but EVERY TEAM has taken somebody with a draft pick, that could have resulted in a better player. This is why they say the NFL Draft is a "crap shoot!"

 

 

(I will give you an "A" for the effort and doing the research though.)

[MarkyMannn]

This is what happens when you have ralph's daughter trying to pick good players and Failing to do so

 

Well we don't have to worry about that any more

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

You've made a good point about how TD took the Winfield money and used it on Milloy instead. (Well, part of it anyway. The rest went to Troy Vincent.)

 

Back when that decision was made, the Bills were in rebuilding mode. They didn't have a strong core of young or mid-age good players. TD's decision to spend the money on Vincent and Milloy instead of Winfield might have made sense for a team on the verge of being a threat to go to the Super Bowl. A team that's that close could justifiably put the short-term ahead of the long run. But the Bills were very far from being that. For them, it made much more sense to choose the young, very good player (Winfield) instead of the two decent aging veterans (Milloy and Vincent). Unfortunately, TD was unable to see this, because of his short-sightedness, lack of strategic vision, and because he got greedy when Milloy became a free agent.

 

Having watched Winfield walk out the door, and play well for the Vikings, you'd think that TD would have made more of an effort to avoid having the same thing happen twice. Instead, TD watched as Clements' contract expired. Having a first round pick go first contract and out is a failure story. One could attribute the failure to picking the wrong player (i.e., one unworthy of a second contract), to picking a player who plays an overpaid position (such as CB), or to management failing to give adequate priority to extending the contracts of its draft picks. Perhaps all three factors played at least some role in Clements' quick departure.

 

I'd also argue those factors contributed to the loss of Greer (whom you underrate). If we'd extended Greer before that draft, we wouldn't have needed to use the 11th overall pick on McKelvin. That would have freed up the pick for use on a position of need. (Instead of using it on a position of self-created need.) My concerns about the Greer/McKelvin swap are very slightly mitigated by the fact that most draft experts felt that McKelvin was the best player available when we picked. But like you said yourself, when you have Brett Favre, you don't draft Peyton Manning. This was a case of drafting Peyton Manning, while letting Favre's contract expire shortly thereafter. (Not that either Greer or McKelvin are remotely comparable to Favre or Manning.)

 

Brandon's second year as GM was a lot more successful than his first. He used three of his first four picks on linemen; and the one non-lineman pick he made was Jairus Byrd. There's nothing wrong with any of that, assuming the Maybin pick pans out. As important as any of his draft picks was the fact that he extended McGee. That's one less future instance of the Bills using a first round pick on a CB!

Definitely what we see here are a series of decisions which make sense as individual decisions (taking a chance to get a Milloy so as not to have to rely on Coy Wire) but in the big picture these individual "reasonable" decisions do not make any sense when there is a mistaken (or no) real overarching vision for building the team over the long term.

 

Ironically, at the point where the decision was made to go with Milloy/Vincent short-term rather than Winfield in a long-term vision the Bills were arguably on the verge (at least statistically) of moving to the next level. My recollection (which may be fuzzy as we luckily get older) was that the Bills were coming off a bad spell linked to rebuilding and Bledsoe had QB'ed the team to an 8-8 record the year before after a horrendous record while rebuilding from the wreckage to the cap of the end of the great teams and the DF/RJ cap disaster.

 

The next level would have been the team competing and even making the playoffs after the 8-8 record. The trade for Milloy and his teaming up with Bledsoe were the keys from my perspective to the 31-0 blowout of the Pats in the opener.

 

However, the lack of a coherent long-term vision reared its head as opponents figured out thanks to the textbook supplied by Belicheat the year before on how to beat Bledsoe (a textbook that the Bills fooled us all -including SI which put the Pats trashing on the cover- because the Pats victory was a one-off supplied with the latest info from Milloy, inspiration for both Milloy and Bledsoe to get revenge on Belicheat, and the Pats still being in disarray as Belicheat so pissed off the vets with his mishandling of the Milloy situation they had the temerity to call him out publicly.

 

The Bills however had dysfunctional leadership from TD on up as this team had hired the not ready for primetime GW as HC and his OC had gotten canned even on a team that had improved a ton. TD had hired Kevin Killdrive who showed no ability to change his style even when it was seizing up.

 

It ironically was going according to plan for TD as one of his primary goals seemed to be not putting an HC he hired in a position to run him out of town like Cowher did and he seemed to motivated as much by making sure he hired an HC he could beat if it came to that (GW) and taking steps to beat down that HC when he crossed a line into TD's world (ex. the replacing of Centers with Gash within days of GW announcing publicly that Centers would be in Buffalo as long as he wanted to be.

 

Mr. Ralph did a pretty good job finding an at least knowledgable and actually quite talented at some aspects of the GMdom on short notice (from his brutalizing of the relationship with Butler) in TD.

 

However, Mr. Ralph completely failed to provide a reasonable check and balance for TDs worst failings and he had to be canned as these miscues stacked up.

 

Individual decisions arguably make sense, but there is one common denominator in our 0 for a decade playoff performance and that ain't Jauron, Brandon, TD, MM, GW or even Marv.

[todd]

I think we whiffed on far too many first round picks. We did well in the lower rounds. Whiffing on picks like Williams, the wasted pick on McGahee, a 1st rounder for Bledsoe, the Losman pick, the McCargo pick -- sheesh. The only reason we aren't the worst drafting team overall is because some lower round picks that worked out well.

 

But still, if you don't get long-term results out of 5 1st round picks in 9 years, it impacts your team horribly. One or two difference makers out of those picks and who knows what would have happened?

 

We had decent drafts in the lower rounds, our first round picks overall have been abysmal, and should get people fired.

 

 

In 2000, we had a lame duck drafting, ready to pick up his tent and fly to SD.

 

In 2001, we had a good draft -- Clements became the highest paid corner in the league, Schobel is still with the team and playing at a high level (see how we fell apart once again once he was out of the game? Kinda like we were flying high until he was injured last year), and Henry turned out to be a very good HB until the drug thing... But I believe we traded him for a pick, right?

 

In 2002, we missed on our first pick -- but it was hardly a "risky" pick. Sometimes these things happen. Reed and Denney are still on the team. Half those people you listed would NEVER have been selected with the 4th overall pick either -- and Buffalo reportedly tried trading out of the spot but found no takers.

 

In 2003, we drafted Willis - a dangerous pick, but we ended up getting some years out of him and a draft pick when we traded him (Edwards - still on the team, for now), and Kelsay is still on the team as well - and has been looking decent this year too.

 

I'm failing to see how our drafts were "terrible," based on your post. It's easy to cherry pick the big names after the fact -- but it's also telling that, for example, you could only find 6 players in the top 75 picks in 2004 that Buffalo should've picked. The draft is a crap shoot. And bad teams make it even worse by destroying players, IMHO (ie: Losman, Edwards, and every other QB since Kelly).

[todd]

Well we don't have to worry about that any more

 

 

Stay classy.

[Dan III]

It ironically was going according to plan for TD as one of his primary goals seemed to be not putting an HC he hired in a position to run him out of town like Cowher did and he seemed to motivated as much by making sure he hired an HC he could beat if it came to that (GW)...

I agree with the majority of everything you've posted in this thread...but, I have always felt this was a BS claim against Donahoe. We all know Ralph would never pay for a big-name coach...so, how is TD's hiring of a non-big-name proof of his fear of being Cowher'ed?

[Red]

In 2000, we had a lame duck drafting, ready to pick up his tent and fly to SD.

 

In 2001, we had a good draft -- Clements became the highest paid corner in the league, Schobel is still with the team and playing at a high level (see how we fell apart once again once he was out of the game? Kinda like we were flying high until he was injured last year), and Henry turned out to be a very good HB until the drug thing... But I believe we traded him for a pick, right?

 

In 2002, we missed on our first pick -- but it was hardly a "risky" pick. Sometimes these things happen. Reed and Denney are still on the team. Half those people you listed would NEVER have been selected with the 4th overall pick either -- and Buffalo reportedly tried trading out of the spot but found no takers.

 

In 2003, we drafted Willis - a dangerous pick, but we ended up getting some years out of him and a draft pick when we traded him (Edwards - still on the team, for now), and Kelsay is still on the team as well - and has been looking decent this year too.

 

I'm failing to see how our drafts were "terrible," based on your post. It's easy to cherry pick the big names after the fact -- but it's also telling that, for example, you could only find 6 players in the top 75 picks in 2004 that Buffalo should've picked. The draft is a crap shoot. And bad teams make it even worse by destroying players, IMHO (ie: Losman, Edwards, and every other QB since Kelly).

 

Failing to see how terrible they were?

 

Are you serious?

 

From 2000-2005, the Bills drafted all of 50 players. 6, SIX are still with the team today.

 

That's not a "crap shoot", dude. That is a 12% ratio of success. 12 freakin' percent!!!

 

And before you get all high falootin' and start spewing free agency garbage...if you don't keep the players that you drafted, that's not the market. The Patriots do it. The Steelers find a way to keep it together. So do the Colts.

 

What is so unique about those clubs?

 

Bottom line: the Bills have had horrible drafts this decade, allow key free agents to walk (Williams, Winfield, Fletcher, Peters), and then sign stop-gap measures that they reach and overpay for (Royal, Walker, Tripplett, Dockery- who all, coincidentally, are ALSO no longer with the team).

 

This team has no plan as GM-by-committee has never worked, will never work, and until good 'ol Ralphie gets past his fear of having a football man in charge of the football team this kind of garbage will continue.

 

Don't even try to support this decade of ineptitude!

[GrudginglyPessimistic]

I agree with the majority of everything you've posted in this thread...but, I have always felt this was a BS claim against Donahoe. We all know Ralph would never pay for a big-name coach...so, how is TD's hiring of a non-big-name proof of his fear of being Cowher'ed?

It certainly is no proof (what outsider can really know what is in another's heart and head and actually most of us usually take a little time to discover all the demons that drive our own decisions so how can an outsider really prove anything).

 

This is my thinking however on the situation and the facts of the case as I understand them (again with full knowledge that my understanding of the facts is in no way complete)

 

1. It makes sense to me that most people would be hurt, disagree with, be put out about getting fired from a job and the guy you hired gets the job (and wins an SB leading the team on top of all that). I do not know TD, he seems like a very competent guy and my guess is that he is a nice enough guy to many. Maybe he is a superior human being and simply chalks up his losing out in Pitts to the other guy winning and he is beyond that.

 

Maybe. However, if true I would be surprised as I think it would be a pretty normal reaction to need your boss who hires you to be watchful of and provide a check and balance on any tendency you showed to operate in ways that demonstrate a never again sort of mantra to an HC you hired developing a relationship with the owner who hired you and running you out of town.

 

Maybe this initial thesis is wrong and if so I would love to hear the thought chain and in particular see the public evidence of my surmise being incorrect.

 

2. The public showing of the release of Larry Centers is probably the most direct piece that us outsiders can see of there being a difference between TD and GW. GW states publicly that Centers will remain a Bill as long as he wants to. Within a week Centers is released and Sam Gash is signed. Either GW lied publicly about his endorsement of Centers (neither seems to fit his character and would be just stupid if he did), or he was shooting off his mouth about who was on the roster and had no clue as to what the truth was (pretty doubtful and even more worrisome for a Bills fan if HC ignorance was the culprit here) or most likely he strayed publicly into the GM domain and was slapped back to reality with Centers taking the financial and emotional hit.

 

Perhaps you have some other viable explanation, but I found this episode stunning and revealing to the outside fan.

 

3. The whole TD approach to team building proved to be pretty bad (most would agree). I was pretty psyched when we hired TD. It was pretty bad for this fan when our GM suddenly bolted to SD and the owner was obviously surprised and had bought the mantra from the GM that he would not even talk contract until the season was over. Even worse our HC had surrendered while we were still alive mathematically (and a team with the exact same record whom we played head to head in our final games actually made the playoffs). Wade was deservedly canned but amidst the owner at best misreading his GM and having no apparent plan B was off tilting at windmills forcing the fired HC to get his last years salary he was contractually obliged through an arbitration which all who said so publicly said he was gonna lose.

 

Signing TD seemed a goshsend in that he not only built a team which eventually won it all and almost always competed, but he took the cash of the last year owed him and traveled the league for the media seeing players and building contacts. TD seemed just about perfect and I figured the main thing the owner had to do was check any bruised feelings exhibited by TD and we would be good to go. This was my thinking going in to the TD era and please correct me if I was wrong in any of this thinking knowing what I knew then (knowing what we know now in hindsight is easy but then I was pretty psyched. My thinking revolves around trying to explain why it went so bad.

 

4 (Feel free to get off the bus here since now I go into fact free opinion).

 

TD began to do a very good job on the business side almost from the word go. I remember the days not to far back in the past where when one went to the will call window, the tickets were divided into shoeboxes that looked like the came from under Mr. Ralph's bed.

 

TD moved this team's business practices into the 20th century (finally as it was now the 21st century) and beyond as he developed partnerships with folks like Wegmans which made tickets more easily available to fans, cut a deal with St. John's Fisher which not only helped the regional strategy key to making Buffalo a larger market but brought fans the NFL experience from a nice but outmoded collegiate experience in Fredonia. Things looked good as though Mr. Ralph would give up some of his powers to the team's first time President of Football Operations (or some lofty title like that) and perhaps nip in the bud some of Mr. Ralph's meddling (which he had every right to do as the owner) which really hurt the team as he had been a partner in badly botched relationships with is last two GMs, had personally misjudged how much Jimbo had left when he made a handshake deal with him to compensate him despite the salary cap in his next contract (which ever happened but the payoff did), and other probable miscues that spelled disaster for the QB position.

 

However, TD actually working to hire an HC who would and could not fire him seemed to me to be the best explanation for"

 

A. His passing over coaches available who had been to the dance before (I know there were some but forget who they were) and passing over seemingly more accomplished candidates (GW was a D guru but Marvin Lewis was even more respected- John Fox had also led one unit to the show like GW and in hindsight has accomplished more as an HC than GW) but he was the GM so I was at least willing to trust but verify as a fan.

 

B. Allowed his young offensively inexperienced HC to assemble a bunch of youngsters as ACs who also had no record of offensive success. This led to him having to fire his OC after a season (despite Mr. Ralph having to pay guys to do nothing or be out of the NFL). This made little sense or someone should have been held accountable for his major hiring error.

 

C. It appeared GW took the heat for this one as Kevin Killdrive a former failed crony of TDs came in as OC (which turned out to be another interesting inside politics choice since actually apparently TD was interested in someone else and it was GW who pushed for Killdrive,

 

D. TD also seemed to bring in a couple of other old offensive types to hold GWs hand (the RB position coach was a friend of TD with some former OC experience. Yet despite this assemblage of talent in waiting, the team never changed from the predictable style which got Killdrive canned with a year left on his contract a long with GW not being brought back.

 

E. The histrionics continued with TD foolishly extending Bledsoe (we should have said thanks for one good season and sorry for one bad one and let him walk. Instead he not only extended Bledsoe but rushed JP along in a feeble attempt to create a winner. All of this happened with the histrionics of the Mularkey hiring, the firing of TD, apparent pressuring of MM out the door and Mr. Ralph led rebuilding after the deluge.

 

I am simply looking for some series of explanation (I assume the cause was not one simple thinh) but in looking for one lead reason, the one which seems to fit what happened as best as I can tell was TD being very good at many facets of the job (great business partnerships, very good market sense and a pair of cajones to use it like the knife job he did on ATL on the PP deal and trading druggee Henry to TN for a first day draft pick. He had his clunkers to like misreading the Phat Pat situation to him going to MN for apparently less than TDs bottomline and balls of stone getting future Pro Bowler WM for a middle first round pick but proving unable to manage this child with a penis into a reasonable Pro, but no one is perfect, and some very good cap management and player assessment as TD scrapped a few old pros from the garbage pile like Sam Adams for chump change and they proved to be good.

 

Yet, if I am looking for a lead failing for why someone who clearly has forgotten more about football than most of us can remember presided over such a clusterfrank.

 

My candidate is the idea that he was motivated by saying never again to be run out of town by a coach he hired.

 

I am open to other explanations.

 

C.

[Orton's Arm]

Definitely what we see here are a series of decisions which make sense as individual decisions (taking a chance to get a Milloy so as not to have to rely on Coy Wire) but in the big picture these individual "reasonable" decisions do not make any sense when there is a mistaken (or no) real overarching vision for building the team over the long term. . . .

I more or less agree with the vast majority of what you've written. In particular, I strongly agree with your statement that there was no overarching vision for building the football team.

 

You alluded to the Bills' good record back in 2002; and how they seemed to be on the cusp of the playoffs. I remember that year well. I wanted to believe that the offense was all straightened out, and that with a few additions to the defense, the team could really go far. But in my heart I knew better. As you pointed out, Belichick demonstrated how to beat Bledsoe: send pressure up the middle. The Bills' offensive line was weak in the middle, and Bledsoe was considerably slower to make decisions than Tom Brady. (A full second slower or more, IIRC.) At no point in his tenure did TD use a first day pick on an interior offensive lineman.

 

Apparently, TD lacked the self-discipline to avoid seeing what he wanted to see. Hence his decision to sacrifice the long-term (by letting Winfield walk) in favor of the short-term (by using the Winfield money on aging veterans like Milloy and Vincent). That's symptomatic of the lack of self-discipline TD demonstrated while running this team. That lack shows up vividly when his first round picks are examined.

 

2001: Nate Clements. First contract and out.

2002: Mike Williams. Bust.

2003a: Drew Bledsoe. Looked mediocre after his first eight games.

2003b: Willis McGahee: a moderately disappointing player. TD had used a second round pick on Travis Henry just two years earlier.

2004a: Lee Evans. A good to very good stretch the field WR; but not necessarily the guy you want as your #1.

2004b: JP Losman. Bust.

 

There are a host of reasons why that list looks as bad as it does. The two primary ones which come to mind are TD's shortsightedness and his poor player evaluation ability.

 

Shortsightedness:

As you probably remember, the Bills went 3-13 in 2001. Following that season, TD traded away a first round pick for an aging veteran (Bledsoe). A team that's in rebuilding mode should trade away its veteran players to get more draft picks. It should not trade away first round picks to get aging veterans! Then there's the short-sightedness of paying so much attention to the RB position (2nd round in 2001, first round in 2003)--even though RBs typically have short careers. If you're in rebuilding mode, then early in the process you should take guys expected to have longer careers (quarterbacks, offensive linemen, WRs, etc.). Then a few years into the process you can focus on guys at positions of shorter careers. That way everything can come together at once.

 

Poor Player Evaluation:

TD overvalued physical traits while undervaluing intangibles. Mike Williams had all the physical talent in the world, but he lacked the heart and desire to succeed at football. J.P. Losman had excellent physical traits, but had never established himself as a pocket passer back in college. Dave Wannestadt said that he wouldn't have drafted Losman with the last pick in the seventh round.

 

It's possible that TD envisioned an offense predicated on pure speed; and that this vision (assuming he had it) contributed to his tendency to overlook intangible traits in favor of measurables. Lee Evans is fast. So too is Roscoe Parrish. And Kevin Everett, up until his injury. Willis McGahee was a very fast running back in college, before he got hurt. Even Losman is quite fast for a quarterback. Plus Losman is good at throwing the long bomb--which is important if your offense is predicated on burning the other team deep. (As an aside, each of the guys I mentioned cost us a first or second round pick. Except for Everett, who cost us a third.)

 

If the thinking in the above paragraph is correct, then it would arguably be an example of TD's tendency to see what he wants to see, not what's actually there. His vision sounded like a good idea, in theory. But it turns out that deep speed was the only real asset of players like Parrish and Everett. And that good physical traits and the long bomb were the only good things about Losman.

 

This kind of wishful thinking can be seen elsewhere. Take a guy who wants to date a woman who's both intelligent and attractive. He focused his attention on the prettiest woman in the room, and hopes that she's also one of the brightest. And ignores evidence that she's actually fairly dumb. TD's thinking was exactly the same as this, except that he wanted players who were both ridiculously physically gifted and productive, good football players. He focused on the most gifted athletes that came to his attention; while ignoring or misinterpreting evidence that those physical gifts were the only good things those players had to offer.