Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

Both Ike and if Teller were listed have statistics based on rookie play. They both have ample room to show improvement, will they who know. Thought I saw earlier in the week stats that showed Long below average as a center, but above as a guard. And the reason for the below average center ratings were partly due to bad snaps, which can be hard to do with a bad injured thumb. Plus put three above average guys out there, and all of a sudden those playing next to them look better too. Adding in the nine listed plus Teller and that guy Sirius something leaves them with at least 11 lineman, teams usually go with 9 though a couple may end up on practice squad. I think they will still use a 2nd or 3rd rounder on a lineman too.

Well since you believe he would have made all pro again, that makes all the difference with your expert credibility, which BTW also is backed up by no data other than the couple of Bills, you mention. What about the rest of the league. The Redskins over the past 20 years or so are one of the best teams to look at to make the authors point. I didn't bother mentioning Mario as I'd think he helps prove the authors point, 6 year contract, one good year, and even if Rex didn't ruin him, it still took him until the 3rd year of his contract to have that good of a year. BTW I do recall many post the first couple of years Mario was here, reading what a waste of money he was in signing him and even after the 4 years were up and he was gone, the posts saying he was a bad signing far outweighed the ones who felt the signing was good. As far as me going hard on it, you replied to my post stating that I'm wrong and the Greg Laundry is wrong who I think has a hell of a lot more credibility than you do. So if I'm a waste of time, why did you reply with no data either to back it up other than 3 Bills, in which none really dispute Laundry's position. (I must have missed Robert Woods making all pro)

As far as Mario goes, he signed the highest contract in NFL history for a defensive player, made all pro one time. Thanks for mentioning him, guess Mario does prove the authors point of the 85% failure part. Or do you consider being the highest paid defensive player in league history and making all pro 1 time show success. I will agree, Rex caused his stats and play to drop way off, but he didn't go to Miami and have much success either. IMO if you look at the top 50 players signed in FA each season based on contract value, then I'd think that 85% is a pretty accurate number. If you look at the total number of players yes likely more than 20% are successful signings because the lower paid ones do more work out. And will agree our FO of late has been more successful as they haven't signed many of the top $$ players. Authors may pull numbers out of their head without looking at any data, but that's OK when they have alot of experience in the field The authors source is himself as he does this type of thing for a living. Did he literally mean 85% probably not, the point was there;s a pretty high rate of failure looking at top paid free agents. What credibility do you have to dispute him other than posting on a fan message board?

He never said 85% failure, he said 80 to 85% bad value proposition, big difference. If these guys were signed to reasonable contracts, it would be fine, but in particular the first couple of days of FA, many are over paid.

OK I'll counter Gilmore and Woods with Clay, Mario, Percy Harvens, seems I can recall a long list of lineman signed by the Bills who were flops Look at the numbers from the 31 other teams in the league and also the ones that didn't work out. Granted a team that's been losing for years certainly the numbers are going to be much lower. On a league wide basis, I'd think that 85% number isn't bad. How many players have left NE over maybe the past 10 years and have done much better on their new team.

I think that sounds about right. Based on what he said: The people who know him best—decided that his projected production will NOT match the price of his contract demands. And if the team that knows the player better than anyone else is taking a pass, you must give that some deep thought. The majority of the really good ones are kept and resigned. I recall Marv Levy one saying something along the same line; "Free Agents typically hurt the team they are leaving more than they help the team they are going too."

And you just assume which side it the truth. Here's another just as likely take infact I'd argue more likely. Buffalo didn't want to re-do his contract or at least not anywhere to the level of money the Raiders gave him. Then could say Beane spurned AB.

Well if it's dinner in Calif, must be having avocado and guacamole or something similar.

Kind of surprised Jared Cook is still unsigned, unless he' just asking way more thn anyone wants to pay including Buffalo.

In the past ten seasons they won more than 6 games only four times, twice 9, once 8, and once 7. Last year they won 6. It's not like they were winning 10 or 11 games and dropped to 6 wins. Looking at the past 5 they went 9, 8, 7, 9, 6. Other than the year they made the playoffs, they were getting worse. Don't know how you came to the conclusion you came too?? ??

It's 12:30 in the afternoon now. No signings announced today yet! What's Beane doing, out playing golf? What a deplorable front office!!

If you're keeping McCoy for another year to me a better option than Johnson would be draft 2nd to 3rd round rookie. You could likely get as good production from a rookie as Johnson. I think WR is one of the hardest and longest positions for rookies to develop at, where as RB is the fastest.

What if BPA available at 9 is a QB, do you take him too? When was the last time you've heard a team come out after the draft and state, "We didn't get the guy we really wanted, but wer'e happy with who we got instead" Instead all you ever hear is "he's the guy we wanted all along!" Likely the difference in grading between the 9th best and maybe the 15th best is so slight, one scout just grading ever so slightly different could probably bump a guy from 15 to 10 in the blink of an eye. Do teams even truly have a definitive order or do they group players together, these are our top 5, then the next five, and so on. But you'll here he was the BPA whomever it is. When you get below the 4th round or so, then BPA is more important as at that point, very little idea anymore if the person will even still be in the league in 3 years. In the 1st couple of rounds you want someone who'll work out for the team, and also be able to become a major contributor early on.

Maybe in the last 20 years it's changed but typically military aircraft have lower factor of safety than commercial, so unless you're going to completely gut and re-do everything including structural, would you really want to be flying on that? Less weight makes them faster.

They certainly have filled many spots thru FA, but as has been pointed out, most contracts can walk away from in 1 to 2 years with little pain. That being said makes me feel they'll need to fill slots through the draft now so they are ready to be big contributors in 1 to 2 years. Therefore would rather see them trade down or stay at 9, but not move up.

You really want to make that statement within 24 hours of OBJ being traded after signing a big extension just last year?

I think if they can trade Zay, yes can see him gone. If not he's on a cheap contract, so can see him sticking as a back up unless someone comes along unexpectedly and beats him out. Also doubt based on events of last 24 hours we draft a WR unless very low. But once contract is up, won't be resigned.

Nothing on Jared cook??

Or maybe he's a guy who wants to visit with team before committing to anything and can't do that till later today?

From the comments made, doubt it would be Beasley.

Yeah so that's why he signing all the FA this season as he has the money and needs short term solutions to needs as you mentioned draft takes a few years. Assuming things are successful and Beane is still around in another 3 years, likely see much less FA and more relying on the draft. An interesting comparison would be NE who constantly signs new players every year and Pitt who more relies on the draft, what their percentages are.

I don't agree with much of this at all! I think their strategy was and still is build thru the draft. But does take 2 to 3 years of drafts to re-build the roster, then add 1 to 2 years for the players to develop. What do you do in the mean time, sign FA to SHORT contracts to hold you over until you draft their eventual replacements. Maybe a few work out better than expected and become keepers in not can cut most in two seasons with low cap hit. Also think the Bills will either stay at 9 or trade down , not up.

Or are they going to announce today they have a trade in place for McCoy? Probably not, but you never know!

The other amazing thing is the Lions signed Amendola and Flowers. Imagine that an ex assistant coach signed some of his former players that he was familiar with. From everything I read here, I was certain the only team that did that was Buffalo!

This is crazy, the team hasn't posted it here so everyone will know exactly what's going on. I'm certain every other team in the league does that!