Einstein's Dog

What are you basing the "injuries have really taken their toll" on? Did you really watch all his games and come up with a different opinion/analysis than the guys who did. What was your win rate and double team rate? It wasn't that long ago that Bills fans saw the damage Watt can do. That player we saw in the playoff game would be great to have on the Bills.

I was hoping this would be the case, if Pitt and GB are reluctant to put in a bid at this time the Bills chances shoot upward if an early decision is to be made. And while Beane may feel trepidation with the cap situation, this is when a top Exec earns his money. A Cleveland vs Bills competition clearly leans the Bills way (no matter what that Cleveland fan tries to claim).

But a 2 yr deal 12/per deal is not a "pushing the chips into the middle" situation. It's a great short term fix of a problem. Replacing Addison/Jefferson/Butler w Watt/K Short/draft pick is an overall cost reduction and performance upgrade. This would show more Beane magic, showing the love early in a period of cap uncertainty. IMO, the longer Watt goes unsigned the less likely the Bills get him - because all things being equal the Packers and Pitt have the advantage. Beane made his big move early last year and the results were terrific - time to strike again (I smell Exec of the year repeat).

Just saw that top 50 piece that had Jonnu in your range of 9-10 and H Henry at 12. I think Ertz would want to be in the 10 range and might get it. Maybe G Everett is the $5 range is more realistic and better value.

On the other hand, getting Watt at $12 mill/yr looks real good to me in comparison to the dollars quoted in the top 50 discussion of Yannick at $17.5 and Clowney at $13. Yes, it would take some cajones and a GM that is confident in his moves to go after a big prize early. Luckily, seems like we have one, and I think it is a real possibility. The hesitancy of other GMs to make the early move might be helping in getting Watt at a reasonable price.

The article Hap linked by Parriro said he would be shocked if Watt hadn't signed by Friday. Here's hoping Beane can get Watt for $12 - $13 mill for two years by Friday!

The Bills cut Gaines. Gaines opted out in 2020 for covid so the Bills could have had him in 2021 for a reasonable salary of under $1 million. Seems like something happened because J Norman didn't secure the position - especially at his price point. Very well could be the FO is comfortable and like Wallace/Jackson/Johnson.

Oh stop, your ridiculous Cleveland bias is showing. OBJ screams "look at me", from his hair, his time at NY, to his complaining about targets. When you say Mayfield is the furthest from me first that there is - are you seriously trying to put him in the same class as J Allen - because he's not in the same stratosphere. Not only has Garrett had at least one issue (remember the feable lie he followed that up with when he tried to play the race card?). Also the organization made a mockery of the "Man of the Year" award by giving Cleveland's designation to that degenerate. Watt can't be pleased by that.

The mythical Gaines was brought in along with J Norman (and drafting of Jackson) to shore up the weak point of the defense - L Wallace CB2. Gaines was under a million bucks, and when on the field, a good CB. Thought they would jettison Norman and go with Gaines. He must of been a bad boy during covid.

I agree with not needing to do much w Special team, WR, and QB. But I think there will be small tweaks. As for CBs, I would put them up there but I have never been comfortable with L Wallace. I didn't quite understand the cutting of EJ Gaines. I thought he was going to win the starting job.

What do you think Watt's range is then? I thought the leak of Cleveland was to put out there that Watt is looking for good money. It's not just between - Pitt, GB, KC, the Bills and maybe Tampa. And while I believe Clev is a decent team, it didn't seem a culture fit. Baker, OBJ are me first, M Garret had big issues. K Hunt is a talented dirt bag. Watt has worked hard on his team first, competitive image - floating out the consideration of playing with the me-first weirdos in Cleveland screams payment is a bigger factor than I previously thought.

IMO, the unfortunate aspect of the Cleveland comment is to let contending teams know "Watt wants to be paid". The discount angle is just part of his schtick, he wants money while playing on a winning, relevant, team. GB, Pitt, or the Bills would need to match a Cleveland type offer for consideration, which, in my guess, now puts it up to 15-17 million. IMO, the odds of the Bills getting him have dropped considerably.

Just looked at Jonnu's stats, they were less than I expected. My impression of Jonnu had been a physical athlete that could catch and block. The stats show as you mention a tail off in usage in the passing game. And in big games, little passing production. The stats are having me backtrack a little. What happened? With Ertz, I'm afraid he may be damaged goods and that you would end up paying a premium for the name - because several of the lesser teams could use a name acquisition.

I was stating targets per game (tpg). In the playoffs Knox averaged over 4 targets per game, so saying 5 tpg for a player who looks better doesn't seem a stretch.

Hope she wears some Bills stuff tonight - (the greenish stuff was hideous).

I also like D Knox but in the role of the #2 TE. R Gilliam is nowhere near a TE the Bills should be playing - we're contender status now - c'mon. As for drafting a TE it usually takes several years to get a TE to the level wanted. I would rather have Jonnu Smith the FA TE from Tenn than Ertz. Jonnu would come over as less of a prima donna, better process guy, and by far a better run blocker. Jonnu has less milage on him and seems a better fit for the role I would like to see the new TE take on, which would be about 5-7 targets a game and around the 4th option, and someone who takes blocking seriously. Jonnu should cost less than Ertz, and if Kroft and L Smith are jettisoned the overall incremental expense would be a couple million.

Just to clarify a little, Beane said "I would not anticipate any blockbuster moves of Stef(on) Diggs type". To me, he's just keeping expectations low. It doesn't mean he's not going to try. It's carefully worded GM speak. If/when he lands someone he will say it was unanticipated. And with JJ there would be no draft compensation involved. And since Watt was released after Beane's quote, the "unanticipated" clause applies.

There are reports that the Bills have already inquired about JJ Watt. One Vegas odds maker had the Bills as 4th most likely to get him. Beane chose his words carefully and "doesn't anticipate" doesn't mean "doesn't try" or "won't happen". The value, fit, cost, all need to be worked out. Doesn't mean the Bills aren't trying for Watt/Hendrickson/ or J Smith (which coincides with my wish list - quit being a negative nancy on my wish list) - just means don't count on it happening.

Beane didn't say they wouldn't. He was just keeping expectations low (would not "anticipate" any). He would want to bring them in at the right price. JJ Watt! Add him to the list! Would look nice in a Bills uni.

One component I haven't seen mentioned is the medium to longer term considerations. Of course there will be a BPA in area of need, but the area of need includes cost control 2-3 years out. For instance the huge investment in the DL needs to be addressed - and they have. Oliver and Espenesa are developing into pieces of the DL and will replace expensive Murphy/Butler types. Adding another that will replace Addison or eventually Hughes makes for good planning. As for RB, I think a Kamara type would fit better than a D Henry type (Etienne over Harris). But either way I think waiting a year is a better long term idea. Give Singletary and Moss another year of separation between the next drafted back. There will be plenty of one year rental RBs - the L Bells and L Fournette types of this year - ie Mark Ingram/D Freeman stop gap measures.

If you take Brady out, then KC scores more than 9. The great first half by Brady put the game script such that KC was so far down, and fearful that more were going to be scored, that they did not take field goals multiple times.

Don't forget about Home field advantage though. The Chiefs had it and in the SB the Bucs got it. Should never have a home field advantage in the SB. And they were promoting that like it was a good, historic accomplishment.

OP - I'm in general agreement and hope something like that materializes. One slight difference I think they keep Addison and drop Butler - mostly cap related. I hope they can find good veteran TE and pass rusher. Ertz seems like he would be too expensive, J Smith would be great, H Henry probably too expensive. For pass rusher they will need to pay, but like many I think they need to redistribute from multiple depth wise to paying for a stud.

There wasn't much talk of the Bills game influence on the reffing. But it seemed clear that the grab and hold defense KC used against the Bills was not going to be tolerated. And the message was made right from the start. It was the right thing to do, expose and eliminate that tactic.

I think you are being clouded by fan-speak. The same people who would have cut Bass, traded Klein for a box of donuts, and now want to cut Singletary. This all from the Bills best squad in years. The OP is suggesting there is a way for the Bills to have a lot of continuity - to bring back the core of the gang that just won 15. I'm hoping they can bring back most and add a good veteran TE (to go w Knox) and a good pass rusher in free agency, and then shore up everything else in the draft.