Einstein's Dog

IMO, the unfortunate aspect of the Cleveland comment is to let contending teams know "Watt wants to be paid". The discount angle is just part of his schtick, he wants money while playing on a winning, relevant, team. GB, Pitt, or the Bills would need to match a Cleveland type offer for consideration, which, in my guess, now puts it up to 15-17 million. IMO, the odds of the Bills getting him have dropped considerably.

Just looked at Jonnu's stats, they were less than I expected. My impression of Jonnu had been a physical athlete that could catch and block. The stats show as you mention a tail off in usage in the passing game. And in big games, little passing production. The stats are having me backtrack a little. What happened? With Ertz, I'm afraid he may be damaged goods and that you would end up paying a premium for the name - because several of the lesser teams could use a name acquisition.

I was stating targets per game (tpg). In the playoffs Knox averaged over 4 targets per game, so saying 5 tpg for a player who looks better doesn't seem a stretch.

Hope she wears some Bills stuff tonight - (the greenish stuff was hideous).

I also like D Knox but in the role of the #2 TE. R Gilliam is nowhere near a TE the Bills should be playing - we're contender status now - c'mon. As for drafting a TE it usually takes several years to get a TE to the level wanted. I would rather have Jonnu Smith the FA TE from Tenn than Ertz. Jonnu would come over as less of a prima donna, better process guy, and by far a better run blocker. Jonnu has less milage on him and seems a better fit for the role I would like to see the new TE take on, which would be about 5-7 targets a game and around the 4th option, and someone who takes blocking seriously. Jonnu should cost less than Ertz, and if Kroft and L Smith are jettisoned the overall incremental expense would be a couple million.

Just to clarify a little, Beane said "I would not anticipate any blockbuster moves of Stef(on) Diggs type". To me, he's just keeping expectations low. It doesn't mean he's not going to try. It's carefully worded GM speak. If/when he lands someone he will say it was unanticipated. And with JJ there would be no draft compensation involved. And since Watt was released after Beane's quote, the "unanticipated" clause applies.

There are reports that the Bills have already inquired about JJ Watt. One Vegas odds maker had the Bills as 4th most likely to get him. Beane chose his words carefully and "doesn't anticipate" doesn't mean "doesn't try" or "won't happen". The value, fit, cost, all need to be worked out. Doesn't mean the Bills aren't trying for Watt/Hendrickson/ or J Smith (which coincides with my wish list - quit being a negative nancy on my wish list) - just means don't count on it happening.

Beane didn't say they wouldn't. He was just keeping expectations low (would not "anticipate" any). He would want to bring them in at the right price. JJ Watt! Add him to the list! Would look nice in a Bills uni.

One component I haven't seen mentioned is the medium to longer term considerations. Of course there will be a BPA in area of need, but the area of need includes cost control 2-3 years out. For instance the huge investment in the DL needs to be addressed - and they have. Oliver and Espenesa are developing into pieces of the DL and will replace expensive Murphy/Butler types. Adding another that will replace Addison or eventually Hughes makes for good planning. As for RB, I think a Kamara type would fit better than a D Henry type (Etienne over Harris). But either way I think waiting a year is a better long term idea. Give Singletary and Moss another year of separation between the next drafted back. There will be plenty of one year rental RBs - the L Bells and L Fournette types of this year - ie Mark Ingram/D Freeman stop gap measures.

If you take Brady out, then KC scores more than 9. The great first half by Brady put the game script such that KC was so far down, and fearful that more were going to be scored, that they did not take field goals multiple times.

Don't forget about Home field advantage though. The Chiefs had it and in the SB the Bucs got it. Should never have a home field advantage in the SB. And they were promoting that like it was a good, historic accomplishment.

OP - I'm in general agreement and hope something like that materializes. One slight difference I think they keep Addison and drop Butler - mostly cap related. I hope they can find good veteran TE and pass rusher. Ertz seems like he would be too expensive, J Smith would be great, H Henry probably too expensive. For pass rusher they will need to pay, but like many I think they need to redistribute from multiple depth wise to paying for a stud.

There wasn't much talk of the Bills game influence on the reffing. But it seemed clear that the grab and hold defense KC used against the Bills was not going to be tolerated. And the message was made right from the start. It was the right thing to do, expose and eliminate that tactic.

I think you are being clouded by fan-speak. The same people who would have cut Bass, traded Klein for a box of donuts, and now want to cut Singletary. This all from the Bills best squad in years. The OP is suggesting there is a way for the Bills to have a lot of continuity - to bring back the core of the gang that just won 15. I'm hoping they can bring back most and add a good veteran TE (to go w Knox) and a good pass rusher in free agency, and then shore up everything else in the draft.

I would love to see the FO bring in Clowney! He'll never come cheaper. He's an athletic freak who might be really motivated. The Bills culture and change of scenery might reignite his career. People are talking paying a Murphy/Addison type price for Clowney? Are you kidding me? Sacks aren't the only thing in life. Sure it's a great stat, but you've got to account for a lot of other factors and watching the game helps show that. Remember how Chris Jones had no sacks for KC in the Bills game? Yeah, I wouldn't hate having that bum either.

Hey - this just reminded me, what was the basis of the one KO in the playoffs that hit on the goal line. It had the KO returner stumped and the guy eventually tried running it out only to get tackled in terrible field position (for them). They cut to commercial and then came back and gave it to the team at the 25. They showed the replay with the ball hitting the goal line like that somehow justified the call (and gave no explanation). I didn't understand why, in normal circumstances if you decide to take it out you have to live with the consequences. Is this just an annual playoff event now, screw the Bills each year in some manner on a kickoff?

Great to have Bass aboard. The move to transition to him right away worked - credit to McD. Looks like the kicker position is set for a good period of time now. I think the covid thing was a help to Bass. He clearly had the leg from day 1, but handling the pressure is an unknown. Bass seemed to have some nerves early and has worked through it. I think not having huge crowds lessened the pressure and may have helped him ease into the position. He worked through those issues and hit some big ones in the playoffs. He's a keeper.

I think you need to revisit your schedule rankings. KC's schedule is pretty soft. They play the NFC East - the softest division in the league. They should be around 7 point favorites in each of those games. Please note that of the 5 AFC playoff teams you mention, 3 of them got there by romping through the NFC East last year. We've been talking about the Bills soft schedule, KC's schedule is of similar strength. And yes, of course there is playoff turnover. A good case could be made for the Raiders or Chargers to be in the playoff mix next year - in large part because they have the soft NFC East games on their schedule - not because they are going to challenge KC.

Well, it might be a way for the teams with upset franchise QBs to do something. While I wouldn't take Watson for JA, I think Beane would have to give some thought to a A Rodgers/ D Adams and a second for JA.

You do not cut Singletary. Teams need multiple RBs, they get hurt - see Moss. Also Singletary gives us continuity if needed in emergency. And did have a good freshman year. Cut Yeldon. I would like a new RB1 candidate. IMO, this should be drafted. A drafted RB can be useful in his first season (unlike most TEs or pass rushers at the 30 spot). The FA dollars should be spent on a veteran pass rusher and/or TE. Also, I would say "No" to the squashable lightweight RB from UCLA. Harris or Etienne please.

I think Beane is just trying to keep fan expectations low. He will be investigating all options. In particular I expect him to be researching possible pass rushers and TEs. He can't say he's looking into these because it will affect the market and affect a portion of fans would consider not bringing some in as a sign of failure.

I think for WR, the Bills just want a #2. Diggs is clearly our #1 and should receive the lions share of targets. A decent, cheaper, healthier, speedy J Brown type. That eliminates Robinson and Golladay. Stills might fit, they have a bit of a look at him. TE should be targeted by the Bills. Knox is good and improving but a veteran upgrade would produce benefits next year. J Smith/Ertz/ or Hunter would really fit nicely. RB can also use an upgrade but this is one area where a rookie can have short term benefits (unlike TE). Either Harris or Etienne, and that helps with cost. Financially on offense it would be shedding J Brown, Kroft, Morse, maybe Yeldon to accomodate the cheaper WR#2 and somewhat expensive veteran TE.

Have to disagree with you. KC's schedule is soft. The NFC East is by far the worst division in football. KC should easily sweep them. Looks to me that KC will be favorites in every game on their schedule next year. While we tried to have ourselves believe that whole close game thing, we now know better, KC is a quality team. Pretty much the best in the NFL right now. Of course things can always happen, another hard hit on Mahomes and the concussion thing can change the whole dynamic. But outside of that, IMO, yes Pitt is pretty much a gimme for them, and Cincy can circle the game all they want, they will still get destroyed.

eball - thanks for posting. What a difference a year makes. Not only a stronger looking Bills team but an easier looking schedule. Should be favorites in all but 3 or 4 of the matchups (KC, Tampa, Tenn, maybe NO). Hope to contend for the bye. A major problem with that is KC has a somewhat soft schedule too. KC plays the NFC East, although they do get the Ravens and Browns. And unfortunately the Bills play KC away. Would really like to get that bye and home field advantage in a non-covid year. And P.S. - to all those who say it's too early to talk, please just refrain from posting. Everyone knows it's early, we all know things can change, and yet several of us would like to discuss it.

I like the idea of adding a good TE. Hard to get one ready right out of the draft, so a FA is the way to go. IMO, please give up the idea of giving up a 2nd rounder, those are way too valuable now for cost control. I like Knox but we could use adding a really good TE. Ertz after he is cut is certainly a possibility, along w J Smith of TN or H Henry. The trick for Beane is to get one that doesn't break the bank.