Einstein's Dog

I think what the rumor was, is that the Bills would give up their first for Ertz and Philly's second round pick. So, in reality the Bills would be getting Ertz for moving down 7 spots in the draft. It's what I'm hoping for. Secondly, Ertz does not have an albatross contract. Quite the contrary. It is a good contract for the Bills because a portion of it is paid by Philly. I think it comes out to $8mill. It's a deal in comparison to what the likes of J Smith and company went for.

GB -thanks for the thoughts. I hope it doesn't happen though, I just don't like the RB round 1. If it breaks like that I hope the Bills work the Z Ertz trade and move back 7 spots. Looks like a lot of good players at expensive positions of somewhat need will be there.

The window theory is a suckers game to be a flash in the pan. Being a consistently good team for a period of time is a better bet. A lot of luck/injuries go into each season. For instance Cleveland was real close to knocking off KC which would have resulted in the Bills being in the Superbowl.

I'm thinking/hoping for the opposite. If their targeted value player is gone (G Newsome) they will trade back with Philly seven spots and get Z Ertz. The mentality is to have a balance: Strive to be good for a long time - which means drafting good players at expensive positions yet have short term year over year improvements (TE1 Ertz > D Knox).

J Ossai - with first pick. But I think that the first pick is in the second round, traded w Philly for Z Ertz. I think they'll do this because/if G Newsome is picked by then. I'm thinking the Bills will be willing to risk the 7 pick step down because there they will know there will be enough good players to choose from. They will have Ossai/ your man Tryon and maybe Oweh for edge and have several good WRs like T Marshall/K Toney/ E Moore/R Moore, that they know they will come out with a good player. Given those I think they choose Ossai, they go D over the WR's because they picked up Ertz. The RB stuff has been a smoke screen from the start.

For me the playmaker additions would be Zack Ertz and a WR in the T Marshall/K Toney/E Moore mode. That would have the immediate benefit of excellent veteran TE. The TE1 over Knox and then a developing WR. The plan would be for the WR to grow throughout the season and then allow the Bills to replace/let go of one of Sanders/Beas. It's too early to take an RB. The Bills have already invested two third rounders the past two years, plus added Breida. Lets ride with them.

The Bills trade down with Philly and get Ertz for it. The Bills draft a WR of the Marshall/Toney/Moore variety. The Bills are a contender for years to come.

I could. If bpa in their minds. The WR position is expensive. Even if the player moves into a secondary starting role - either Beas or Sanders. Thats a $6 million plus worry free piece for multiple years - and a possible 5th year value extension. Also secures some continuity for Josh. Economically, it makes a lot of sense to go WR. The WR only needs to become top three on your team and you won't have struck out (unlike RB, where you can pick up a vet like Breida/Bell/Fourtaine for 2-3 mill).

I love that the interest is being reported. I hope this serves as a negotiation tool to Philly. Could send a signal that the Bills are standing firm in their valuation of Ertz's trade value (no 3rd). If Philly doesn't move Ertz for the right price, Jesse would work.

I like Pitts but he is not realistic at 30. And I am still holding out hope that Ertz can be brought in for a 5th. I like bpa in an area of high cost for the long term team building aspects. That means a DE/DL, OL, or WR (it's true that CB is in this category but I do not like it when they are drafted). These positions are less risky because even if the player only makes it to rotational status they still are a bargain. The Q Jeffersons, Addison, Murphies over $5m apiece. A vet RB like Fournette or Bell was only $2m. And we have two 3rd round RBs already on the roster. Don't even think about doing RB again until maybe next year when you could get someone who gets groomed to replace Singletary.

I think while the path may have gotten somewhat tougher, in that some of the other teams in the division made bigger gains, I think the odds of the AFCE title are actually greater this year than last. I think that because of the QB position. I feel the Bills currently have the #1 and #2 ranked QBs in the division. Last years achilles heal has been addressed. If J Allen gets dinged for a few games, the Bills will probably still be favored.

Don't forget Miami went backwards in the QB dept - they lost Fitz. They now have a QB that on the Bills would be fighting it out w Fromm and Davis to make our practice squad.

That was my original thought but now I'm panicking. I think a vet TE1 would be the biggest, easiest way to improve last years squad (which was already good). Ertz is pretty much all I see left (Rudolf/Henry/JSmith/Gronk - all gone). Bad year not to have a 4th. Maybe Beane can figure a way to meet them half way and get this done. There is still competition out there - Colts/Carolina. I'd like to see Beane just compromise and wrap this up quickly.

I think people need to get over their sticker shock and realize a veteran TE will be expensive. Rudolf at $8 mill should have been expected. Everett was at 6, Jonnu at 12. If the Bills could get Ertz at $8 to $10 million that would be a bargain.

What I'm saying is that WR is an option at 30 now still. Whereas if they had Samuel there they would be a lot less likely to take one. WRs can be expensive in the open market, it's great if you can have them home grown. If a value falls you want to be able to take it. IMO, it leaves Toney as an option if he falls.

I'll add one additional comment to this divergent offshoot. Having Sanders instead of Samuals makes it easier for the Bills to go WR at 30 if that is deemed bpa. If Toney is there and they like him, they can easily fit him into the plans. Not so much if they already have Diggs/Samual/Davis.

Yes, a 1 or 2 is too much. Bad year not to have our 4th. But lets not say its for the right to overpay Ertz. $8 mill is a bargain, Jonnu got $12, Everett got $6 and Kroft was at $5. Part of the benefit of trading for Ertz is you get a great salary. And hopefully restructure into a 2 year thing.

I hope the Bills are not done in FA too. In particular I'm hoping they get a TE. As many have said it usually takes 2-3 years for a TE to grow into the job, so a rookie work. Rudolph or Ertz would good to me.

Not for a second. The problem with Ertz is I want Beane to hold firm and not give up a third for him. 3rd round picks are too important now. Need to develop the first three rounds of picks into at least rotational status for the length of their rookie contracts. Our mid to long term success is dependent upon it.

I want Rudolph if we can't get Ertz.

I think you are way off in your pricing. Everett just got $6 mill and he's never sniffed being a pro-bowler. Kroft got $5 mill. Rudolph is better than both. I think it would be a deal to get Rudolph in for $8mill a year. Part of the lure of trading for Ertz is that you would him for only $8 mill his first year (Philly picks up the rest). Jonnu just got $12 mill per.

Now the trick is to flip this pick for Ertz

On the positive side, it just might start a trend of reasonable prices. Could start showing J Brown that he needs to seriously reduce his expectations. Would like to have J Brown come back and get another youngster to develop.

Interesting. We have a different view on this. Tonyan went off for a couple of games and was Knox-like the rest of his career. Playoff stats are almost identical. I would like Ertz here - means the FO sees him as healthy. Hopefully under the $10mill mark for 2 years, for a 5th. Ertz when healthy is a playmaker. Next for me would be Rudolf. A past pro bowler vet who would be a dual threat to catch and help the run game.

Hell no. You don't give up a second. And certainly not for the pedestrian Tonyan. Let's get someone who would be TE1 - Ertz or Rudolph or even Everett.