Einstein's Dog

I hope the Bills have kept negotiating. Don't want to see Ertz hit the open market. I now like the idea of trading a DLineman, probably Addison, for Ertz. Move money out of the DLine and into the Offense, particularly TE. I'd like a 2 yr deal on Ertz for reasonable money. The dream is still alive!

My fearless forecast is that the next interview with Josh there will be a blurb that Josh has been vaccinated. It's what a leader would do. If he wants to get the best environment for his team to practice in, they need to meet this goal. He sets an example. It would show Josh is doing this for the team and others should follow suit.

But what you said was "these comments may be more headache than they were worth in the long run". IMO, if this is all he gets, a call from the office, it looks well worth it. Beane made it very clear what the front office wants. Doesn't have to (and won't) say it again. We now need to wait to see if the Bills hit the vaccination rate needed for the relaxed restrictions (as I now suspect they will).

Or the comments may provide a large benefit. This message was crystal clear, management is pro vaccination. Even starters who want to get in line with the Bills culture, know what to do now. The previous message coming from Josh was wishy-washy. So, while Beane may risk some type of grievance penalty, he may have snuffed out any limitations on practices by ensuring vaccination percentage compliance. We'll never know for sure.

I think I saw it in the Ertz thread, and upgraded it to a rumor in this thread (because I love the idea). Both Ertz and Addison get reductions after June 1. This brilliant move would decrease the overspend on the DL and create the first real short term year over year positional improvement for the team (outside of anticipated growth and development, and maybe Breida). As for the DL rotation it could survive without Addison.

Addison is rumored to be traded for Ertz after June 1.

I was in total agreement with you until you got to the last paragraph. What would you have liked them to do? I can understand it a little, I would like to see Ertz come here. But for the draft the Bills took the bpa in the area of expensive need. It's how you stay good for a lengthy period of time.

That's the point though. It's happened a lot before for the Browns. And it has continued to happen under Stefanski. Seems to me like it is a good bet to continue. IMO, the Browns are much more likely to cough one up against Cincy than the Bills are to lose to the Jets.

Don't forget a WR will definitely be an option. It should be between DL, CB, and a WR for the most part, maybe OL. Hopefully they will continue the bpa at an expensive position strategy. The bpa at expensive position strategy makes taking an RB quite unlikely. Breida only cost 1mill, M Ingram was $3m. If you take a WR and he only becomes a WR2 you still save the difference between Sanders $6mill vs the rookie contract, which is more than the rookie contract vs a FA RB1 in most cases.

But just last year the Browns lost to the Jets (?!!!) The second last game of the regular season with a lot on the line. 10-4 Browns with playoff hopes playing a totally in the bag Jets team. Huge loss. A very Brownsy loss done while under Stefanski. Sure they had a couple of nice wins against Pitt, but they lost to the pathetic Jets. Pretty much a text book example of inconsistent.

That's my point though, the Browns aren't even heavy favorites to win their own division. Talented roster that has been previously prone to inconsistent effort, that is playing a somewhat difficult schedule. I think Vegas will put them in at about 11.5 wins, which would be less than the Bills.

No way. I don't think the Browns are even favorites to win their division. And if they don't win their division they'll be on the road most of the playoffs. Hard to call that the big threat. The Browns schedule is no picnic either - 2xBalt, 2xPitt, KC, Pack, and even the MN, AZ, and NE pieces probably shouldn't be taken lightly. They'll probably be underdogs in at least 6 of their games. IMO, you seem to be overly focused on team talent and are discounting other important variables.

They don't need starters for this to be a successful draft. From an economic standpoint good rotational Dlineman have been running the Bills around $8 mill apiece (T Murphy/Jefferson/Addison/Butler). Getting rookie contracts in for those expenses makes a lot of sense. Compare that to Najee. Heard on the telecast that at his draft position he was getting something around $3m which put him at the 19th highest paid RB. That's not much of a value. You think Pitt would have known better, I think they are trending downward now.

Ignoring the shiny object of RB was the right way to go. I was glad to see the temptation removed by a couple of teams that couldn't resist. If the objective is to be good for an extended period of time the trenches was the way to go this year. Just look at how much it had cost the Bills in previous years just for backup DL's, the $8 million Jefferson, the $12m Murphy, the $10m Addison. Rotational, depth, d linemen are $8-10m apiece. A free agent RB is like $3m. Plus, the timing was off. Next year would be a much better year for considering an RB if improvement isn't made. Singletary is only 2 years in on a 4 year rookie deal.

Like lots of people have said, can't give 100% trust, everyone can make mistakes. I like what the FO has done for the most part. The trust level is fluid. If the FO trades up for an RB, I'll be disappointed and their overall trust level from me will take a huge hit. On the other hand, if they trade down 7 spots and pick up Ertz in the process - It'll raise their ranking immensely IMO.

I think what the rumor was, is that the Bills would give up their first for Ertz and Philly's second round pick. So, in reality the Bills would be getting Ertz for moving down 7 spots in the draft. It's what I'm hoping for. Secondly, Ertz does not have an albatross contract. Quite the contrary. It is a good contract for the Bills because a portion of it is paid by Philly. I think it comes out to $8mill. It's a deal in comparison to what the likes of J Smith and company went for.

GB -thanks for the thoughts. I hope it doesn't happen though, I just don't like the RB round 1. If it breaks like that I hope the Bills work the Z Ertz trade and move back 7 spots. Looks like a lot of good players at expensive positions of somewhat need will be there.

The window theory is a suckers game to be a flash in the pan. Being a consistently good team for a period of time is a better bet. A lot of luck/injuries go into each season. For instance Cleveland was real close to knocking off KC which would have resulted in the Bills being in the Superbowl.

I'm thinking/hoping for the opposite. If their targeted value player is gone (G Newsome) they will trade back with Philly seven spots and get Z Ertz. The mentality is to have a balance: Strive to be good for a long time - which means drafting good players at expensive positions yet have short term year over year improvements (TE1 Ertz > D Knox).

J Ossai - with first pick. But I think that the first pick is in the second round, traded w Philly for Z Ertz. I think they'll do this because/if G Newsome is picked by then. I'm thinking the Bills will be willing to risk the 7 pick step down because there they will know there will be enough good players to choose from. They will have Ossai/ your man Tryon and maybe Oweh for edge and have several good WRs like T Marshall/K Toney/ E Moore/R Moore, that they know they will come out with a good player. Given those I think they choose Ossai, they go D over the WR's because they picked up Ertz. The RB stuff has been a smoke screen from the start.

For me the playmaker additions would be Zack Ertz and a WR in the T Marshall/K Toney/E Moore mode. That would have the immediate benefit of excellent veteran TE. The TE1 over Knox and then a developing WR. The plan would be for the WR to grow throughout the season and then allow the Bills to replace/let go of one of Sanders/Beas. It's too early to take an RB. The Bills have already invested two third rounders the past two years, plus added Breida. Lets ride with them.

The Bills trade down with Philly and get Ertz for it. The Bills draft a WR of the Marshall/Toney/Moore variety. The Bills are a contender for years to come.

I could. If bpa in their minds. The WR position is expensive. Even if the player moves into a secondary starting role - either Beas or Sanders. Thats a $6 million plus worry free piece for multiple years - and a possible 5th year value extension. Also secures some continuity for Josh. Economically, it makes a lot of sense to go WR. The WR only needs to become top three on your team and you won't have struck out (unlike RB, where you can pick up a vet like Breida/Bell/Fourtaine for 2-3 mill).

I love that the interest is being reported. I hope this serves as a negotiation tool to Philly. Could send a signal that the Bills are standing firm in their valuation of Ertz's trade value (no 3rd). If Philly doesn't move Ertz for the right price, Jesse would work.

I like Pitts but he is not realistic at 30. And I am still holding out hope that Ertz can be brought in for a 5th. I like bpa in an area of high cost for the long term team building aspects. That means a DE/DL, OL, or WR (it's true that CB is in this category but I do not like it when they are drafted). These positions are less risky because even if the player only makes it to rotational status they still are a bargain. The Q Jeffersons, Addison, Murphies over $5m apiece. A vet RB like Fournette or Bell was only $2m. And we have two 3rd round RBs already on the roster. Don't even think about doing RB again until maybe next year when you could get someone who gets groomed to replace Singletary.