Einstein's Dog

It's okay to engage in some wishful thinking. Last year they did add Sanders, tried for a reasonably priced $12M Watt, and inquired about Ertz. And that was after Beane said to not expect any moves. IMO, those needs are still here. Could be negotiating again w Minn for Hunter, add a Berrios, and get Gronk here on a reasonable deal.

Kind of depends on what who you are refering to. The FO did make a big splash just a couple of years ago with Diggs. And last year certainly seems like they were considering the JJ Watt move, and a little possibility of Ertz. So, this year, with the subtraction of Sanders, not unreasonable to think a modest investment will be made. Where to put the $7M in the offense will be interesting. Could go a reduced Beas price, or Berrrios, or a reduced price McKenzie along w Gronk or Ertz. I think the odds are they do take a bargain FA RB. I think it would be a long shot for any substantial investment in RB, but others like the thought of Barkley (and the dream/hope of Toney) or Fournette.

What I mean about Barkley is that the FO might view it as a situation they want to get out from, without upsetting their fan base too much. For the Bills it would be a way to circumvent the "pay your own" mantra. The Bills are developing an excellent culture, and one tenet has been to pay your own, -draft/cultivate and keep. I would like to see the Bills avoid that scenario in the Singletary and Edmunds instances. Trading them before they are due is a great way to avoid the situation. For Singletary, he's decent, but I think it would be smart of the FO to not pay him a second contract in the RB market range. I think they could find another Singletary type quality RB in the draft in the 3rd round again. I also don't think Edmunds is worth big money and that's where he is headed.

Or how about Barkley/Toney for Cole/Singletary/and Edmunds. For the Bills getting Toney could sweet and moving Singletary and Edmunds helps end the decision coming up of extending. For the Giants it helps them save face getting rid of Barkley. The Bills could then do the 3rd round RB groom pick like they did w Singletary/Gore days.

Agree with all you said up until the last line. I've seen enough and I hope the FO has as well. You lock Knox up this season. Do not let him hit Free Agency. Pay him respectable, the market rate. Give him Schultz/Tonyan money along w signing bonus or guarantee and do it early. Knox is a poster child for sign your own. He's worked hard, culture guy. Emerging talent. Pay him. Pay him now. A secondary advantage of getting a draft pick that works out is the ability to negotiate and sign them a year early to market rates. The market just keeps going up, so getting them a year early is actually a bargain. Just did it with Josh, you do it with Knox. You give Josh/Dorsey/Brady some continuity - players for the long haul.

I'm with you. You don't put the money into RB. Draft BPA, and that includes RB in rounds 3 and above. I think it is already time to think about Singletary's (and Moss') replacements. No need for the $6M+ investment into that position. Spotrac estimates Patterson at $9M, Fournette and Connor around $6-7M. The Bills should have nothing to do with that. Usually, I'm on board with the pay your own, a year in advance, philosophy, but not with RB. Get another r3 RB and groom him for Singletary's role, and then the following year, if it works out, jettison Singletary and pair the new RB with a discounted, disgruntled veteran (like Fournette w Tampa at approx $2M.)

The TE2 spot is a big weakness. It's a long season and TE is a position that gets beat up. People upstream were complaining about Knox in the Jax game - Knox wasn't ready, he was coming back from the hand injury too early because we had nothing behind him - Sweeney was a complete failure.

Alpha - I had a similar feel reading that article, people giving Star a bum rap from the writers line of Star doesn't love football. I got the feeling from the article that writer was trying to impart that Star is more motivated than most because Star values the salaries and realizes this is generational type money. Star was moving people for a living for a year. I came away from the article thinking Star values money. And people who think that because Star already has been paid a lot of money he won't care about not getting another $2.6M are wrong. It was a worry last year but we all saw Star come back in phenomenal shape. He cares. There have been some unusual happenings with Star but there is a possible reasonable, unique, explanation for them (real Covid concerns based on preexisting conditions). I hope that is the case and that Star comes back and is his early 2021 self - the team is better for it.

I hope the FO is not taking the "wait and see" approach. Pay the man, and pay him early. It's the advantage you get from having drafted him. The move is to ink your good draft picks a year early to market price deals. The player likes it because they get big money a year early. The team gets continuity and helps maintain/stregthen the culture. Dawson is a keeper and the Bills FO needs to recognize it now. And I think you should get over the sticker shock because TE's are already going north of $10M. Jonnu and Hunter around $12M last year. The market will be set for Knox with Schultz and Tonyan. The Bills will need to be in that area and do it a year early so Knox never hits the open market. The FO has stated in the past, they like to sign their own. Knox is in that wheelhouse. Additionally, TEs take time to develop, you don't want to start from scratch again. To me, it's a no-brainer to apply the FO principle to Knox, where it starts to get murky is with Edmunds and Singletary.

Just because the Bills D got gashed by the run some this year, doesn't mean Star didn't improve it (again- remember when the Bills were the 29th ranked run D before he came here). The run D improved year over year and Star is a big reason why. It's still not great run D, the D in general is not geared for stopping the run. It's getting about time to stop blaming DT's for Edmunds inadequacies against the run. That's several years in a row now. And actually, there is a big drop off from Star to Ankou. If Star is not on the team, you better believe there is a need for a new DT. Your guarantee that Star won't be here is worthless. There is a good possibilty you're right though. Star's personal absence is troubling (to me at least). And if Star is a danger to the culture they are trying to instill/keep, it could be added incentive to move on.

You're saying "on the field" but refering to off the field. I understand people are frustrated, including our FO- the covid skip, the OTA miss, and time off last year are all annoying. But the guy was not a total screw up. Came here in fantastic shape. Really looked good out to the gate. People are quick to forget how in 2020 we talked a lot about how Star's absence was a large factor in the overall disappointing showing of the D that year. How missing Star wasn't just a downgrade at that position but was negatively affecting the other players performances as well. You don't get a player anywhere near the type of skill/experience/production Star can give us for $1.5M or even the $2.6M. The move is not to jettison a good player because you are upset with him, it is instead time for McD to get this guy back.

You're making the mistake of pegging his salary to his past production and not his current or projected skill level. And even going on past production how did Beas compare to McKenzie on a per game basis? Beas looked slower and less productive and his trajectory is downward. I don't think Beas' anticipated/extrapolated skill level is worth the current salary the Bills have him under contract for. So, yes, I think he is overpriced If Beas doesn't come down significantly in price I hope the Bills send him packing. There are alternatives, Berrios and McKenzie come to mind. Maybe Ertz or Gronk at that price point. Trade for Toney, imagine the numbers that guy could put up given the opportunity to play the slot receiver for Josh. And, yes, WRs are expensive, so it is important to keep drafting them and trying to grow our own.

Back on topic. With Sanders gone, Beas overpriced, and McKenzie barking, we need at least one FA WR. Get one in the draft and one off the market. Here are my choices based on potential price and fit: 1. OBJ- My crusade for OBJ has not caught much steam yet, so let me try again. Potential Splash signing. To my eyes he still has the goods, top 10ish. The uncertainty of his value (OBJ is listed at only $5.9M in Spotrac) means an opportunity. I'd like to see the FO go at him JJWatt style, float an early and best offer and make him think. Something like $13-14M for a year or two, and let the chips fall where they may. It would make it hard for OBJ to take a $16M offer from the NEs, Jets, even Clev's of the world without facing the hard reality that he is selling out for the money. 2. Berrios - seems like he might be a reasonably priced slot receiver. According to spotrac he is cheaper than Beas. If Beas doesn't come down in price significantly, this guy looks like a potential replacement. Of course would love C Kirk or Crowder but not at the estimated $12M.

I gave the article a click based on the tease "his contract is escapable for the first time in a long time." I thought people here had it wrong. Not really. What it did bring to light for me was the unpleasant reality of this may be a test of the business of football vs the game. Capwise it's a no-brainer, Star or no Star in a contract year for the difference of $1.5M. No question you keep him. But in money out the door it could cost the Pegula's over $3.5M. I know what Ralph would do.

I think a logical slight adjustment for Beane and Co to make is to take advantage of now being considered a SB Contender, offensive juggernaut, great QB, team. This upgrade allows for getting top shelf prove it players (see Fournette/OBJ/A Brown/Gronk). It has been done by NE, recently Tampa, and by the Rams. The Bills are now in that category and should be taking advantage. These are the top quality players that want to go to showcase themselves on proof it deals. See Fournette/OBJ/A Brown/Gronk/Ertz. I would like to see the Bills get a player or two from that pool now. My first choice is OBJ. Spotrac has OBJ estimated at under $6M. Gronk is back on the market, as is Ertz. A Brown could come dirt cheap.

My point was people were insinuating that Patterson could be some type of under the radar signing. He's not, and it would seem he would be looking for his big payday (he hasn't had one yet and this will probably be his one and only). OBJ, on the other hand, seems to come with a lot more intrigue. According to you (and me) he looks criminally underestimated by Spotrac at $5.6M . So, yes, OBJ's value is increasing, but to where? And with the uncertainty I think there may be an opportunity. I think OBJ would be worth $10M next year, and if the Bills offer is in the ballpark vs the Clev, NEs, and Jets of the world - I think he would opt for the Bills.

I like the idea of your end result, just think it is way too expensive to be considered. How about Diggs/OBJ/Davis/Gronk/Knox! More realistic IMO. Get OBJ ($5.6) and Gronk($8.3M) for $14M vs Godwin($18.1M)/Gesicki($11M) for $29M (per Spotrac estimates). OBJ is estimated at $5.6M and might be coming off a Superbowl win and the dismantling of that team. To my eye, OBJ is a top 10 talent in this league. If the Bills offer market price (which in my estimate is above Spotracs and rising but I don't care), I think we would be one of his top choices - QB, contender, excellent offense- and a little bit of the stick it to Clev by showing that at the next 2 different teams his numbers excelled. If I had my choice right now for the Superbowl between OBJ, Sanders, or Beasley, I'm taking OBJ. Gronk is estimated at $8.3M and might be looking to help his home town go to the Superbowl. So, if the Bills are in the market range, it is conceivable he would want to be here above everyone else. Gronk may be a little lumbering now, but he still put up good stats, and from where I view things, makes a concerted effort to block. Gronk would help the run game (unlike Gesicki who is a glorified slot- good, but not a real help blocking).

I like Patterson except I believe Spotrac when they estimate Patterson won't not be cheap, $9M range. An older RB who would want to get paid. My wish list among the FAs, factoring in Spotrac salaries: Gronk - $8M, I think he would do the hometown right at Market price OBJ - $6M. What a value. The guy still has the goods. I think he might want to go to another Superbowl contender. Bring back McKenzie - blame past usage problems on DaBoll. Spotrac doesn't even bother putting an estimate on him, pretty cheap I would imagine, couple million. Then draft CB, OL, WR, and TE (developmental) in a BPA kind of way.

Well done Promo! I think this will be one of those tweets K Warner erases. Certainly looks like K Warners early predictions of J Allen failure was being used as a basis for his bias, and Warner, once again, predicted a poor outcome. Doubling down.

$4-5M? Lets not insult the guy. Look at some current salaries J Smith $12M/ Jack Doyle $10/Nick Boyle $10/N Fant 12M/T Higbee 10M/Hooper $10M Spotrac puts out estimates, they give some for this years crop R Tonyan $10.8, D Schultz $12.6M. And prices almost always go up year over year. The smart move by the Bills is not to wait. Knox is the type of guy you want to have around, a homegrown Buffalo Bill. Tonyan and Schultz will set the market for Knox. Then the Bills extend Knox with upfront money and something comparable, before Knox ever hits free agency. That's what keeping your own is all about.

Extend Knox. Get Gronk for TE2ish at $7-8M. Draft a raw physical freak you can develop.

One benefit of having drafted him is the ability to negotiate early. Players like big money early. Give him the market rate for the several future years with some upfront and some guaranteed cash and a lot of people are happy. The possiblity of getting $10M guaranteed upfront next year as part of a salary of around $10M a year for the next four years would be very tempting to take, instead of waiting and then holding out for the top bidder at around $12-13M. Hopefully, Knox, like Josh before him, wants to lock into the situation he has in Buffalo.

The talent for next year isn't finalized yet. Does make you wonder how much of a say he will get. There seems a limited amount you can put into the offense, do they go C Patterson (9M) or Gronk (7), or OBJ (6M), or Fournette (6M). I disagree with the zero chance statement. If Dorsey stumps for Gronk, and we get him, he certainly would be doing so with the 12 personnel as a viable option.

It's not counterproductive if you take the long term view. You get and train a blossoming player and then sign him to big/market money a year before they are eligible to hit the free market. Most players are agreeable to that, get good guaranteed money a year early and up front- at pretty much the market rate (but the market pretty much just goes continually up). They will employ this move on Oliver next. On offense, I expect to see this done with Knox. Plus the DL are expensive pieces - Butler/Murphy/Addison are all over $8M. Just being able to get a player that allows those players to be jettisoned has an excellent financial benefit. For comparison, spotrac estimates getting a starting RB such as Fournette or J Connor would be in the $5-6M range.

"We" thought it was automatic? It is starting to look like the only drama in the hiring was whether the Pegulas would match the increased price brought about by some competition. Pretty clear it is not that he hates McDermott.