Einstein's Dog

I think you should adjust your comparisons to more relevant samples, like say RBs selected within the first 10 picks. Or maybe HOF RBs (which CMC certainly could be). CMC is closer to the HOF sample than the average RB sample. When you say the numbers are out there, you are refering to small sample sizes with high variability. Hard to apply those figures as any indicator of how CMC will do. I think CMC will rebound. Here is Josh's Thurman Thomas. And no offense to the 90s Bills but this has the look of: Josh>Kelly, CMC>Thurman, Diggs>Reed, offensive juggernaut. I floated the Edmunds throw-in because I was agreeing with the poster who couldn't believe the CMC acquisition would be possible for a 3rd and 5th (plus paying $8M). IMO, trading Edmunds helps the FO (and my fears) get out of paying Edmunds big money.

1. Yes to Fitz - need QB backup. If he comes at the reasonable price, definetely. 2. No to Mack - Not enough increase over Singletary - and too expensive. Draft one, and wait and get vet RB cheap dregs (like Fournette fell to Tampa) 3. Maybe to Berrios - depends on Beas renegotiations and McK possibilities. Plus draft pick. 4. Yes to Corbett! Absolutely, and has worked with Kromer 5. No to Ogbah. Get a higher profile better DLman - Von Miller/C Jones/Clowney 6. No to Ward - draft pick instead 7. Bonus-- Yes to Gronk. Need a TE2 I like Sal's ideas, they just need a little tweaking.

And yet, there are a decent amount of people on here that are saying "No way". For me, I'd love to see them throw in Edmunds on a deal like this. I think this would be a great way to move on from that looming decision.

I agree with the person didn't need to be name called, he was presenting a different view. And like GunnerBill, I disagree with his view, I think Diggs is slightly underpaid. Although this is almost always the case when you are an older contract. I disagree with you on letting Diggs contract go. It is a good strategy by the FO to find talent and lock it up a year or two early. Josh/Diggs/Dion/Tre and soon to be Knox and then Davis, then Bass and then Brown. These mostly draftees (aside from Diggs) should be shown early contracts to entice them to sign and stay. They are the core.

Don't fall for it. Big mistake to let Knox test free agency. First, the tag will be no where near $9M, Gesicki was fighting to not be classified as a TE to avoid the >11M franchise tag, and it will continue going up rapidly. Godert just got over $14M, J Smith and H Henry got $12M last year. This year they'll add Gesicki/Schultz/ and Tonyan. Second, it should be an objective to surround Josh with weapons, and to keep some consistency - this offense is humming and getting better and Knox is part of that. Third, you will have to pay to get another TE. You can't just have rookies at this position. Some mid one like Rudolph is $6M. You sign Knox at his market rate a year early. That's one advantage of drafting and developing a player. You give him Tonyan money in a multi-year deal. Initially it will seem like a lot, but people will be saying the same things they are about Josh's contract in two years. The Bills need to budget around the decent deal they'll give/get with Knox. If necessary the FO could allot less to the WR room. Replace Sanders with draft pick Davis, replace Beas w McKenzie and start working in a draft pick. It seems easier to me to draft and put in a WR than a TE.

We agree on a lot, but where we differ is on Knox, I think he is a keeper. IMO, Knox is certainly on the Tonyan/Schultz/J Smith level. And if you don't sign Knox you're going down a treachorous road. The bandaids of Gronk or Ertz are not the long term solution. And going into the full blown free agency market for a TE will get ugly. I want the long term offensive team composition to include Knox and someone else. Don't lose Knox, sign him early. I'm with you on Gronk. I would love to see it. TE2 is a deficiency. I rate Gronk over Ertz because of blocking. I also agree on drafting a TE. But it generally takes TEs time to develop. The drafted TE would be more of a replacement for Gronk than Knox. And yes, the fact that Knox is already among the best TEs the Bills have had shouldn't matter from a financial perspective. But from a fans perspective I like it. And Knox is kind of a poster child for some of the things the FO has been saying - build from within, pay your own, culture. Plus he is improving, getting better, not only does the market generally go up every year, Knox's trajectory has been strongly rising. Lock him up early!

And it goes the other way on the misconception of Knox salary. A Hooper ($10M), R Tonyan (spotrac est $10.8M), and J Smith ($12M) all didn't go over 500 yards. Market data is out there, with more to come- R Tonyan and D Schultz are FAs this year. Last year Hunter/J Smith got $12M, Goedert $14M. Beane and Co need to factor in a market rate TE so we can continue to have a top notch offense. Prices don't drop. One advantage to drafting and developing is extending and paying market rates a year early. You do that with Knox. Knox offers continuity, upside, culture fit, and the odds on favorite to be the best TE the Bills have ever had. It boggles my mind that some people don't even want to pay him the market rate.

My toughts: 1. get D lineman stud- buy one of C Jones, clowney, or Von Miller. They were going for JJ last year, so not out of the question 2. Trade for Toney + Barkley - give up Beasley/Singletary/Mongo + Edmunds.- actual cap savings 3 add/buy TE2 - get Gronk for 8M. If not then Ertz 4..draft-CB+IOL+RB2+Edmunds replacement.

"Weather or not" there is any substance to this post lets not overlook that this site was due for another cry for McDermott's head. If you are some type of long time fan who is excited about the future - sees a competent FO, good coach, and franchise QB -and see a possible 8 year run as a top team in the league - please take care in the threads you open. Your buzz can be negatively affected by the newbie fans who want, no demand, a superbowl win every year.

I like Singletary, but to me the problem is, RBs are not worth it. I would like to see them draft another. Market price for veteran RBs look to be in the $5-6M range. Spotrac estimates Fournette/Connor/Michel in the $5-6m range and G Edwards/K Drake brought in $4-5M last year. The FO loves Edmunds. They might extend him. I didn't count Ford because I don't see much decision needed, you let his contract play out

There were people who thought giving Josh the extension early was risky. These are the type of small risks the FO needs to continue. Knox is looking like the best TE the Bills have ever had, and people are hesitant to pay him Tonyan money. If you have some doubts on the "pay your own" philosophy please keep the focus where it belongs - Singletary and Edmunds.

What it does show though is it is a wise decision to lock up your good players early. To Beane's credit he was sold on Josh early enough to extend him early. With rising prices it is a good policy to extend at market price a year in advance. I think they will do it for Knox and Davis (and Diggs' new contract). You don't get out unscathed but if you wait it is worse.

Yes, the smart money is on escalating salaries. That's why it makes sense to extend good players who you will have for multiple seasons, early. Knox and Diggs, and soon Davis come to mind.

Lost interest? Hell, no! The Bills are an excellent team and look to be a contender for the next decade! Everything pro football is interesting now. I could see New England fans pretending it's no longer interesting, that the NFL has somehow changed. But this is a great time for any long time Bills fans!!

I thought the OL played well at the end. Just give the new coach those guys and a draft pick and see what happens. I would prefer to see a run at an elite Dlineman. The earlier draft picks aren't wasted because they still replace high priced prior pieces such as Butler/Addison/Hughes. But adding a proven top level guy would really help. Either being highest bidder or a draft+pay combo, getting an elite in here would be huge!

It's okay to engage in some wishful thinking. Last year they did add Sanders, tried for a reasonably priced $12M Watt, and inquired about Ertz. And that was after Beane said to not expect any moves. IMO, those needs are still here. Could be negotiating again w Minn for Hunter, add a Berrios, and get Gronk here on a reasonable deal.

Kind of depends on what who you are refering to. The FO did make a big splash just a couple of years ago with Diggs. And last year certainly seems like they were considering the JJ Watt move, and a little possibility of Ertz. So, this year, with the subtraction of Sanders, not unreasonable to think a modest investment will be made. Where to put the $7M in the offense will be interesting. Could go a reduced Beas price, or Berrrios, or a reduced price McKenzie along w Gronk or Ertz. I think the odds are they do take a bargain FA RB. I think it would be a long shot for any substantial investment in RB, but others like the thought of Barkley (and the dream/hope of Toney) or Fournette.

What I mean about Barkley is that the FO might view it as a situation they want to get out from, without upsetting their fan base too much. For the Bills it would be a way to circumvent the "pay your own" mantra. The Bills are developing an excellent culture, and one tenet has been to pay your own, -draft/cultivate and keep. I would like to see the Bills avoid that scenario in the Singletary and Edmunds instances. Trading them before they are due is a great way to avoid the situation. For Singletary, he's decent, but I think it would be smart of the FO to not pay him a second contract in the RB market range. I think they could find another Singletary type quality RB in the draft in the 3rd round again. I also don't think Edmunds is worth big money and that's where he is headed.

Or how about Barkley/Toney for Cole/Singletary/and Edmunds. For the Bills getting Toney could sweet and moving Singletary and Edmunds helps end the decision coming up of extending. For the Giants it helps them save face getting rid of Barkley. The Bills could then do the 3rd round RB groom pick like they did w Singletary/Gore days.

Agree with all you said up until the last line. I've seen enough and I hope the FO has as well. You lock Knox up this season. Do not let him hit Free Agency. Pay him respectable, the market rate. Give him Schultz/Tonyan money along w signing bonus or guarantee and do it early. Knox is a poster child for sign your own. He's worked hard, culture guy. Emerging talent. Pay him. Pay him now. A secondary advantage of getting a draft pick that works out is the ability to negotiate and sign them a year early to market rates. The market just keeps going up, so getting them a year early is actually a bargain. Just did it with Josh, you do it with Knox. You give Josh/Dorsey/Brady some continuity - players for the long haul.

I'm with you. You don't put the money into RB. Draft BPA, and that includes RB in rounds 3 and above. I think it is already time to think about Singletary's (and Moss') replacements. No need for the $6M+ investment into that position. Spotrac estimates Patterson at $9M, Fournette and Connor around $6-7M. The Bills should have nothing to do with that. Usually, I'm on board with the pay your own, a year in advance, philosophy, but not with RB. Get another r3 RB and groom him for Singletary's role, and then the following year, if it works out, jettison Singletary and pair the new RB with a discounted, disgruntled veteran (like Fournette w Tampa at approx $2M.)

The TE2 spot is a big weakness. It's a long season and TE is a position that gets beat up. People upstream were complaining about Knox in the Jax game - Knox wasn't ready, he was coming back from the hand injury too early because we had nothing behind him - Sweeney was a complete failure.

Alpha - I had a similar feel reading that article, people giving Star a bum rap from the writers line of Star doesn't love football. I got the feeling from the article that writer was trying to impart that Star is more motivated than most because Star values the salaries and realizes this is generational type money. Star was moving people for a living for a year. I came away from the article thinking Star values money. And people who think that because Star already has been paid a lot of money he won't care about not getting another $2.6M are wrong. It was a worry last year but we all saw Star come back in phenomenal shape. He cares. There have been some unusual happenings with Star but there is a possible reasonable, unique, explanation for them (real Covid concerns based on preexisting conditions). I hope that is the case and that Star comes back and is his early 2021 self - the team is better for it.

I hope the FO is not taking the "wait and see" approach. Pay the man, and pay him early. It's the advantage you get from having drafted him. The move is to ink your good draft picks a year early to market price deals. The player likes it because they get big money a year early. The team gets continuity and helps maintain/stregthen the culture. Dawson is a keeper and the Bills FO needs to recognize it now. And I think you should get over the sticker shock because TE's are already going north of $10M. Jonnu and Hunter around $12M last year. The market will be set for Knox with Schultz and Tonyan. The Bills will need to be in that area and do it a year early so Knox never hits the open market. The FO has stated in the past, they like to sign their own. Knox is in that wheelhouse. Additionally, TEs take time to develop, you don't want to start from scratch again. To me, it's a no-brainer to apply the FO principle to Knox, where it starts to get murky is with Edmunds and Singletary.

Just because the Bills D got gashed by the run some this year, doesn't mean Star didn't improve it (again- remember when the Bills were the 29th ranked run D before he came here). The run D improved year over year and Star is a big reason why. It's still not great run D, the D in general is not geared for stopping the run. It's getting about time to stop blaming DT's for Edmunds inadequacies against the run. That's several years in a row now. And actually, there is a big drop off from Star to Ankou. If Star is not on the team, you better believe there is a need for a new DT. Your guarantee that Star won't be here is worthless. There is a good possibilty you're right though. Star's personal absence is troubling (to me at least). And if Star is a danger to the culture they are trying to instill/keep, it could be added incentive to move on.