Einstein's Dog

The question is whether or not you consider C Watson to be a reach. I've come around on Watson and would like it if he were drafted in the 1st. Extreme potential. Help stop the FA WR carousel. Gives Josh/Dorsey 4-5 years of a raw atheletic WR to train and develop. They don't have to draft a WR, but if one like C Watson is available there is a nice spot for him.

That's a good point. The Bills probably are still working the field because they want a particular one- not just a bargain. Would be interesting to know who they prefer at CB: Rhodes was a former first round draft pick with several years pro experience. Buoye at one time had a big salary and has Carolina stink. Just read about Kevin King being a 6'3" 200, coming back from injury but had an excellent 2019 (5 ints, 66 tackles). Then there is also Fuller/Nelson/Callahan. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2022/4/10/23018040/free-agent-cornerbacks-available-for-the-buffalo-bills-to-sign-kevin-king-stephon-gilmore

It may be what they planned but the process seems to have been adjusted/tweaked. They used to say they filled all the holes in FA and drafted BPA. Now it appears they are intentionally leaving some spots - like say WR3, Sanders spot, for a draft pick.

Thanks for the input. I view a few things a little differently. First, to me, priority number one for Beane was a pass rusher. Beane didn't just Forrest Gump his way into Von. It was one of the options Beane wanted and Beane went big to get it. The big money at QB,WR,LT,CB, and pass rusher is no accident, all part of the beautiful overall plan. Two, I always did not like Wallace and was routinely disappointed that he made it into the starting lineup. I was glad they moved on, but certainly have hoped he would be replaced by someone better. I agree Beane isn't panicking, but hope it is because he knows he'll bring one in, and that player will be better than Wallace.

I think the FO is also leaving the third outside WR spot open. The old Sanders spot is intentionally unfilled for stud draft potential. It's a need that looks like they won't address until after the draft. The hope by many of us is they get a WR early. If the board doesn't work they may have to use that extra money and go to the FA well.

I forgot to add the status of Tre as another factor in waiting. Also it allows them to keep the draft day trade options open (Bradberry?) I feel they're going to be adding 2 CBs, one by draft and one vet. I'm interested in your ranking/thoughts on the remaining FA CBs. Who do you think will get the most money and who do you think are the best fit for the Bills?

In the recent past the FO has used Free Agency to fill holes prior to the draft and then pick BPA. But this year could the FO be delaying their last move until after the draft (vet CB)? This year it might be advantageous to wait until after the draft to fill the vet CB spot. Several reasons for it. Unusual amount of quality CBs still on the market. Gilmore/Fuller/Haden/Callahan/Nelson/Rhodes. There may be a price break after the draft. The vet CBs will face a demand dropoff by the 5-10 teams that draft CBs in the first 2 rounds. The Bills draft could affect the type of vet CB they want - for instance, if the draft falls such that BPA in round 1 is a CB, ie Booth, then maybe FO will put in less money to fill the vet CB slot. Get a $1-2M CB - ie old Sherman, or the oft injured B Callahan, with the intent of quickly moving Booth into the spot. If the draft goes a different direction the FO pays more for a Nelson/Fuller/Rhodes type. They could still draft BPA (in premium position of need) and fill in the remaining CB spot at a price point that may differ according to the selections from the draft.

I kind of hope Booth is drafted ahead of us so it's not a possibility. If, for instance, the draft went like the one TBD did where Booth was gone (although you took him) I would have preferred the Bills taking C Watson over the corner.

And I hope your view is not the opinion of the FO. If Booth and J Williams or T Burks are all on board, I hope the Bills go WR. There's no world where I will be delighted with corner in round 1, but I will be able to understand it if the top tier of WRs are gone.

Why does it matter when we get the CB? They should be drafting BPA at a premium position of use regardless of the short term status of the CB. Seems like there might be a price drop after the draft when the FA CB field would be getting very nervous. So it may be advantageous to the Bills to wait. Also, by waiting until after the draft, Beane may adjust which CB tier he might want. For instance if the draft falls in such a way that we get Booth then maybe the FO would supplement him with the injury prone Callahan or Sherman (lower price options). And if the draft falls a different way where J Williams/T Burk is available and CB isn't addressed until round 3 the FA CB would change. In that case maybe they look to pony up for a more dependable Nelson/Rhodes type.

My point is you don't have to sign a vet CB and then draft BPA. You draft BPA with the confidence that you will be signing a vet CB at some point. It doesn't have to be before the draft, not if the price is not where Beane wants it. There is a strong case that there could be a significant price drop with regard to CB signings after the draft. If the current glut of CBs don't sign prior to the draft, the demand for their services takes a serious drop after 5-10 teams load up with first or second round CBs.

Literally the end of your post was "the CB has to be addressed ASAP". It does not. It can wait. There are a lot of CBs and the best deals may be after the draft.

No, the CB does not have to be addressed ASAP. It actually might be able to wait until after the draft. There are a glut of FA CB - Fuller/Haden/Rhodes/Nelson/Jenkins/Callahan/Gilmore/Sherman etc. Who FA do you recommend for the Sanders vacancy? Going FA route gives you Julio (possible but I suspect pricey), Landry (estimated $12M spotrac), Fuller (maybe but injury riddled coming off $10M), Beas (seriously, that's who you want?), Sanders (a year older doesn't help). See the problem? You draft BPA at a premium postion of use. If the pick is closely graded you do not take the CB, you take the WR and upgrade the FA CB accordingly.

I don't think Edmunds over Knox at all. Edmunds seems replaceable to me and they should be getting that person in the upcoming draft. That Troy Anderson would do nicely IMO. Knox didn't just have a good developmental year, he had a good year period. And he is ascending. Not only did his numbers shoot up but his blocking improved tremendously. To me, he is a core member of the offense. If Dawson would do the hypothetical 3yr/$25M, you do that now. Njoku is getting >$10M.

But the rumor was the Giants would eat half the salary in a trade. We would give up a lower draft pick and maybe a recent rookie who is on a cheap contract (Epenesa or Moss) - this would be big cost saving moves for the Giants.

So that other teams are honest. You make a realistic offer that you want. Allowing the parties to agree on adjustments after the fact just keeps other teams from doing bogus poison pill offers - that doesn't help the players or original owners.

This could be upping the ante for the CB. Setting their sights a little higher than the $3.5M market. Possibly Fuller. Maybe trading Epenesa and a 5th for Bradberry (and the Giants eat half the contract). Or maybe it does take $5M to get Nelson (or whichever one they like most- which I personally hope is not Gilmore).

Seems a little shiny objecty to me. The exciting unknown "first round corner" really bolsters the lineup as apposed to say the steady experience of Nelson/Rhodes/Callahan, not to even bring in the possibility of Fuller or Gilmore (who I personally don't like). For next season if you ranked the CBs you would like starting for the Bills, I would put the rookies behind these vets. Anyway the draft is really supposed to be about the future. It's now a potential cost control to balance out the big prices of the core (QB,WR,LT,CB,DE). A WR is more than just nice for the future. It gives Josh/Dorsey 4-5 years of continuity to pair up with Diggs. It gives Beane negotiating leverage for Davis and Knox, and insurance if demands get too rich. It also helps cost contain the WR group. I'd like to see a WR and RB and see if they can develop into integral parts of the future offense.

That may be how Beane wants it to look. He's got $3.5M for a CB. Are Nelson/Rhodes and Callahan all going to say No? There has to be a little nervousness in some of the FA CB circles. A lot of CBs still out there and the draft will eliminate CB needs for a lot of teams. Beane could be playing a late game of hardball to get a quality CB in for less than Wallace money. I like the idea.

I seriously doubt Beane is shutting down talks. He probably just took a break to let Miami's putrid, stupid, signing wear off. After another couple of days the pressure goes back on the CB agents. It's too great of an opportunity to get a CB he likes at a great price. It's a prime opportunity for hard ball and I don't think this is the sort of thing Beane will pass up. Put yourself in Nelsons or Rhodes shoes, 3 weeks to the draft and you don't have a team. CBs like Gilmore and Fuller ahead of you on the pecking order and no one doing much in the way of moves. Offer expires before the draft - and then 5-10 CBs will likely be taken in the first two rounds - demand will have dried up. I think Beane can, and will, squeeze certain, select CBs hard in the next couple of weeks.

Or, in a differently strategized way, room to make a move for a vet after the draft. Still Cool.

And generally what people mean are BPA at a premium position of need. We want a good player at an expensive position that can be worked into the lineup quickly. That eliminates QB for instance (please reference Green Bays debacle for not adhering to this), and this year, for us, DL (for a change). That's why most people talk about the CBs and WRs (and IOL but in the second or third). Right now spots are kept open for Wallace's old CB spot and Sanders/Gabe WR spot (the 3rd outside WR which hasn't been filled).

Tapped? Frivolous? I don't think so. FA market for CBs has Fuller/Nelson/Rhodes/Callahan/Jenkins/Gilmore/Sherman and Haden - all upgrades over Wallace. Then there is J Norman and Buoye who could sign cheap as backups if we draft a starting CB. If there is a surprise trade I hope we aren't giving up any of the valuable draft assets (top 4 rounds). If the Giants want Epenesa for Bradberry and eat some of Bradberry's outrageous salary - maybe.

I disagree again. If you believe Knox is going to be a top 10 TE then pay him like a top 10-15 TE during this season. Don't have him go to FA market. You get deals by extending while still under contract. Gesicki will not be with Miami long term because it's unlikely that Miami will be the highest bidder next year. The Bills should not go down that road. The FO already probably knows Knox is a great fit - offensively and culturally. Also his value is growing, sign him on the upswing. Njoku got tagged at $10M. J Smith got $12M. During the season, Knox would be amenable to getting a raise and guaranteed money. I think Knox likes it here and would take a reasonable market contract, $10-12M/yr for the next 5 years with some nice guaranteed cash.

I strongly disagree with you here. TEs are difficult to come by. The price is skyrocketing and rookies take time to develop. Extending Knox in a market fashion similar to Josh and Diggs is the smart thing to do. He's part of the core we now have and will be the best TE in Bills history before all is said and done. You may not consider him a super top TE but he's the best we've got - and improving. And if you go out in the open market you will pay (see J Smith/ D Ngoku). This FO has been shown to be sharp. Extending Diggs was smart. Extending Knox is up there with extending Oliver.