Einstein's Dog

My point is you don't have to sign a vet CB and then draft BPA. You draft BPA with the confidence that you will be signing a vet CB at some point. It doesn't have to be before the draft, not if the price is not where Beane wants it. There is a strong case that there could be a significant price drop with regard to CB signings after the draft. If the current glut of CBs don't sign prior to the draft, the demand for their services takes a serious drop after 5-10 teams load up with first or second round CBs.

Literally the end of your post was "the CB has to be addressed ASAP". It does not. It can wait. There are a lot of CBs and the best deals may be after the draft.

No, the CB does not have to be addressed ASAP. It actually might be able to wait until after the draft. There are a glut of FA CB - Fuller/Haden/Rhodes/Nelson/Jenkins/Callahan/Gilmore/Sherman etc. Who FA do you recommend for the Sanders vacancy? Going FA route gives you Julio (possible but I suspect pricey), Landry (estimated $12M spotrac), Fuller (maybe but injury riddled coming off $10M), Beas (seriously, that's who you want?), Sanders (a year older doesn't help). See the problem? You draft BPA at a premium postion of use. If the pick is closely graded you do not take the CB, you take the WR and upgrade the FA CB accordingly.

I don't think Edmunds over Knox at all. Edmunds seems replaceable to me and they should be getting that person in the upcoming draft. That Troy Anderson would do nicely IMO. Knox didn't just have a good developmental year, he had a good year period. And he is ascending. Not only did his numbers shoot up but his blocking improved tremendously. To me, he is a core member of the offense. If Dawson would do the hypothetical 3yr/$25M, you do that now. Njoku is getting >$10M.

But the rumor was the Giants would eat half the salary in a trade. We would give up a lower draft pick and maybe a recent rookie who is on a cheap contract (Epenesa or Moss) - this would be big cost saving moves for the Giants.

So that other teams are honest. You make a realistic offer that you want. Allowing the parties to agree on adjustments after the fact just keeps other teams from doing bogus poison pill offers - that doesn't help the players or original owners.

This could be upping the ante for the CB. Setting their sights a little higher than the $3.5M market. Possibly Fuller. Maybe trading Epenesa and a 5th for Bradberry (and the Giants eat half the contract). Or maybe it does take $5M to get Nelson (or whichever one they like most- which I personally hope is not Gilmore).

Seems a little shiny objecty to me. The exciting unknown "first round corner" really bolsters the lineup as apposed to say the steady experience of Nelson/Rhodes/Callahan, not to even bring in the possibility of Fuller or Gilmore (who I personally don't like). For next season if you ranked the CBs you would like starting for the Bills, I would put the rookies behind these vets. Anyway the draft is really supposed to be about the future. It's now a potential cost control to balance out the big prices of the core (QB,WR,LT,CB,DE). A WR is more than just nice for the future. It gives Josh/Dorsey 4-5 years of continuity to pair up with Diggs. It gives Beane negotiating leverage for Davis and Knox, and insurance if demands get too rich. It also helps cost contain the WR group. I'd like to see a WR and RB and see if they can develop into integral parts of the future offense.

That may be how Beane wants it to look. He's got $3.5M for a CB. Are Nelson/Rhodes and Callahan all going to say No? There has to be a little nervousness in some of the FA CB circles. A lot of CBs still out there and the draft will eliminate CB needs for a lot of teams. Beane could be playing a late game of hardball to get a quality CB in for less than Wallace money. I like the idea.

I seriously doubt Beane is shutting down talks. He probably just took a break to let Miami's putrid, stupid, signing wear off. After another couple of days the pressure goes back on the CB agents. It's too great of an opportunity to get a CB he likes at a great price. It's a prime opportunity for hard ball and I don't think this is the sort of thing Beane will pass up. Put yourself in Nelsons or Rhodes shoes, 3 weeks to the draft and you don't have a team. CBs like Gilmore and Fuller ahead of you on the pecking order and no one doing much in the way of moves. Offer expires before the draft - and then 5-10 CBs will likely be taken in the first two rounds - demand will have dried up. I think Beane can, and will, squeeze certain, select CBs hard in the next couple of weeks.

Or, in a differently strategized way, room to make a move for a vet after the draft. Still Cool.

And generally what people mean are BPA at a premium position of need. We want a good player at an expensive position that can be worked into the lineup quickly. That eliminates QB for instance (please reference Green Bays debacle for not adhering to this), and this year, for us, DL (for a change). That's why most people talk about the CBs and WRs (and IOL but in the second or third). Right now spots are kept open for Wallace's old CB spot and Sanders/Gabe WR spot (the 3rd outside WR which hasn't been filled).

Tapped? Frivolous? I don't think so. FA market for CBs has Fuller/Nelson/Rhodes/Callahan/Jenkins/Gilmore/Sherman and Haden - all upgrades over Wallace. Then there is J Norman and Buoye who could sign cheap as backups if we draft a starting CB. If there is a surprise trade I hope we aren't giving up any of the valuable draft assets (top 4 rounds). If the Giants want Epenesa for Bradberry and eat some of Bradberry's outrageous salary - maybe.

I disagree again. If you believe Knox is going to be a top 10 TE then pay him like a top 10-15 TE during this season. Don't have him go to FA market. You get deals by extending while still under contract. Gesicki will not be with Miami long term because it's unlikely that Miami will be the highest bidder next year. The Bills should not go down that road. The FO already probably knows Knox is a great fit - offensively and culturally. Also his value is growing, sign him on the upswing. Njoku got tagged at $10M. J Smith got $12M. During the season, Knox would be amenable to getting a raise and guaranteed money. I think Knox likes it here and would take a reasonable market contract, $10-12M/yr for the next 5 years with some nice guaranteed cash.

I strongly disagree with you here. TEs are difficult to come by. The price is skyrocketing and rookies take time to develop. Extending Knox in a market fashion similar to Josh and Diggs is the smart thing to do. He's part of the core we now have and will be the best TE in Bills history before all is said and done. You may not consider him a super top TE but he's the best we've got - and improving. And if you go out in the open market you will pay (see J Smith/ D Ngoku). This FO has been shown to be sharp. Extending Diggs was smart. Extending Knox is up there with extending Oliver.

I do not want the FO to draft for need, meaning to exclusively fill the CB position. It may fall as BPA but I hope it doesn't. As I mentioned I hope they operate all along like they will get another vet CB. If the price point isn't reached by the draft, I don't want them panicing. I don't think they will. So, no, I do not want CB in the first regardless of the status of the CBs prior if it's not the BPA on their board. I am hoping the FO ranks several WRs over CBs. If they don't have another vet CB prior to the draft and yet there are still a lot left, I think the FO can wait and get a great deal after the draft. It is a little contrary to what they have done in the past but in this instance I feel it could work.

I don't think you move Edmunds now. And certainly not with the intention of putting in a rookie in his place. I could see getting Anderson in the third as a future replacement for Edmunds (maybe move up in the third). Have Anderson learn for a year and then replace Edmunds. I could see the FO exploring possibilities of moving up by trading Epenesa and/or Moss. The Giants being one suitor that is supposedly looking for some cheap labor. I don't think it's enough juice for 1st round move up, but might do something for the second or third.

The CB vet signing doesn't necessarily have to be done before the draft though. If the large number of FA CBs are still there, no need to rush into a signing. Haden/Gilmore/Fuller/Nelson/Callahan/Rhodes/Jenkins/Sherman - Beane's staring 'em down, he'll get one to break for a $3-4M deal. And if they don't accept it before the draft, the price goes down after the draft - because 5 CB needy teams will have just addressed the position with top 2 round picks. Secondly, the draft is for the future. So the pick may be of small significance to our winning the Super Bowl and more integral to the overall decade of dominance we will be experiencing under the Josh era (and yes, I am hoping a Williams/Burk/Watson type influencer).

I think you forgot Knox. He will get his market share a year early (w some guaranteed cash to sweeten the pot). He's a keeper.

Yes. It has always been the plan. They're taking their time but I strongly believe they are planning on bringing in another CB. And I also believe they will not be drafting for need. BPA at a premium position of use (which will probably exclude DL this year).

To me, it makes drafting a WR even easier. It won't be misconstrued as an attempt to get rid of Diggs. It won't cause any angst in the locker room. It will just make the offense more potent. (disclaimer I am a WR in the 1st diehard advocate).

New thought on the CB strategy - wait out for the price drop, even if it means after the draft. Usually we like to fill holes in FA but this year there may be unique circumstances - a glut of decent FA CBs who don't have a team. Respectable FA CBs left- Fuller/Nelson/Rhodes/Gilmore/Sherman/Callahan/Jenkins/Haden. Seems like the FO can hold out and get one at a price point they have in mind - probably the $3-4M range - which would be getting a better player than Wallace at a lesser price. The price had been coming down, Peterson at $4-5M, but then Miami did something stupid (shocker) and set the market back. So now we're waiting it back out again. So even if we don't pick up a CB prior to the draft, there would be no need to panic and do a for need pick. Still go BPA at premium position of need. Operate as if you have one of the above CBs and draft accordingly.

It may be that they can wait on CB until after the draft. Outside of the two extreme CB fill-ins you mention, there are a lot of veterans still available. Nelson/Fuller/Rhodes/Callahan/Haden/Jenkins/Buoye/Sherman The FO may be waiting to have one of their choices drop into a predetermined Beaner range - say around $3-4M and still be an upgrade over the departed Wallace. The Miami debacle of paying stupid money for a CB, that we roast regularly, probably pushed the time frame of good value for CBs back a little. Just because we don't have one at draft time does not mean we are pigeon-holed into drafting for need. We would not be forced to trade up. God I hope that doesn't happen. The OP is a nightmare to me, trading up in panic mode for a CB. Get the best WR available and keep the first 3-4 rounds for players to be worked into lineup on rookie contracts.

But then you would miss out on the 5th year option. One benefit of the 1st round is the extra year. And if you hit on a WR the 5th year option becomes especially useful. Not just for the 5th year, but as a bargaining tool to extend early and get the player locked down for more years before the contract expires. At the 4th year you can negotiate an extension at the market rate throwing in some guaranteed money and it is an easy sell - ie Josh. If they hit on the raw physically gifted WR that develops with Dorsey/Josh into a top 5ish WR then you may wish you had the 5th year option for him.

I was reading this hoping you weren't getting too sucked in to drafting for need. Need is fluid with available FAs still out there. One aspect of the WR discussion though on the point of slot WR, is that it appears to be the least costly of the WR group. We filled it with FA's around $3M (McKenzie + Crowder). It's the good outside WRs where the market is going nuts. Rather draft the next Mike Williams than the next Beas. I would rather go with a T Burks/C Watson/J Williams than Dotson.