Einstein's Dog

The criteria of "Will this pick help us win now" is the epitome of short term thinking I hope our FO is not using in the draft. The draft should be for the future benefit of the team. Cap management through the draft is extremely important for maintaining long term success. The draft should be done with an eye towards future finances- safety (Poyer $13M), LB (Edmunds $15M), even CB (Wallace $4M), WR (Sanders $6M) all make more financial sense than Hall ($3M) replacing Singletary ($2M).

J Williams was listed as chosen I think 7 times in the overall look. G Wilson was the TBD choice in one of our mocks, so it's possible. If the FO likes Watson they should absolutely take him if available at 25. Trading down would be reckless, especially with Green Bay and Kansas City with close by picks.

Reasons I hate the idea: 1. Short sighted - the draft had been for the future, this screams short term. 2. RB is not a premium position. If Hall becomes as good as Fournette, you have a $7M guy, if the WR is good like C Kirk you have a $15-20M player. 3. Hall had a terrible interview on the show I saw, he isn't even the best RB in this class. He was pompous and arrogant. Also he doesn't play 4.4 fast. 4. Taking an RB in the first puts pressure on Dorsey/McD to run more - I don't want that pressure/influence on the offense. 5. Not only would I not want to give a second contract to an RB, the recent round 1 RBs would hold out before that anyway (Zeke, LeVeon). 6. Hall at around $3M replaces the $2M Singletary. Meanwhile we neglect that next year we have $15M Edmunds and $13M Poyer. 7. The genius title for Beane would have to be revisited- this would be an error in the overall plan of a continued successful team.

I think/hope J Williams, G Wilson, T Burks, and C Watson would all be in play.

What, no WR coverage? I think it is a distinct possibility. My hope is that the FO is using the draft for the future benefit of the club. That means BPA at a positions that make financial sense. Lots to choose from: CB, WR, IOL, even Safety could go in the first. Then the others plus LB and RB and way late P. Breece Hall @25 is not drafting with the financial future in mind and would seriously disappoint me.

Objection to a lot of things in this OP. First, the FO uses the draft for the future, not short term objectives, so grading in on the first year results is not the way to assess the value. A key component of drafting for the future is using the draft as a cap management tool. A great way to manage the cap is to use the 1st round pick with the BPA at a premium position of use. Secondly, while Diggs was an excellent trade it pales in comparison to choosing JA17. And this highlights the above, the first year results are not the way to assess how well a draft is done. If for instance J Williams is picked and has a JA17 like trajectory where he becomes a top 5 WR in 2-3 years, it would be well worth it.

What if they try it a little differently this time and bring in a younger CB that has to get over the injury prone label? There are ones out there like Buoye/K King/Callahan - that have been good CBs but haven't played through full seasons. After the draft I hope the FO acts quickly with their thought out price points and grabs one.

Agreed. The draft needs to consider the future and should not be based on immediate need. The BPA at a premium position of use is the best way to get future benefit of managing the cap. When you adhere to that line of thinking you don't take an RB in the first. I would like to see a stud WR taken in the first. If not available, I can see Booth. Also, I could see Daxton Hill, because I like his versatility and future as a safety replacement. In later rounds an RB, IOL, and punter.

Just read the Todd McShay and Mel Kiper mock draft, it had the Bills select Pickens at 57 (had Booth at 25).

I would like to get K Toney and Bradberry (at half salary) for a 3rd and Epenesa. This would make toney a low risk add-on, either he shows a change in attitude or he is gone and the Bills still have filled the CB spot. For the Giants they would get reduced salary and have the new team make a strong stand against head cases.

Having read that, I don't want either Hall or Walker in the second. It will be interesting to see what the FO does about RB. Singletary's contract is going to be up soon so a replacement there would be nice. And if they have soured on Moss, i would like to see a new short yardage specialist to stop having Josh run on 3rd and ones. Two different types of backs though.

You're right, I just went back and looked, I was way off. In 1.0 McDuffie was taken in the first for the Bills and in the second took K Walker after B Hall had been selected.

It would have been weird if Walker wasn't chosen here, since he was chosen in the first round in the last Bills mock draft. I think that is why Virgil left Walker off, he assumed Walker would be the choice.

No, you expect immediate "impact" but luckily that is not the view of the FO. The draft is for the overall continued success of the program, not some short term gain. Jamison Williams offers incredible potential for the offense for multiple years. A WR that Josh/Dorsey can have for multiple years. I don't know if you saw his interview. Hall is not someone I would want. K Walker beat out Hall in our Bills mock draft.

I think that they have recently used a BPA of premium position of use to create their board. And that the board has been created with the future in mind when drafting. The board has been somewhat conservative in that even if the player is average they are taking a spot which is expensive to fill. Very little financial risk in the DEs when they are penciled in to replace the Murphys/Butlers/Addison $8-12M range players. Looks like the FO is saving the WR2/3 spot for a rookie to replace the Sanders spot ($6M). And they have the CB2/3 open to replace Wallace ($4M) available. I think Daxton Hill is strongly in the mix, offers versatility and the long term coverage at safety that would allow the Bills to save the $12M of a Poyer extension.

I had to go back and look, the first pick was Garret Wilson. So if they could add K Walker that would be quite the offensive infusion - I don't like not putting Walker in there - I like him better than Hall. I don't consider them interchangeable and wouldn't take Hall here.

Lots for me to disagree with: I would be more comfortable with a veteran CB than a rookie. I thought Dane Jackson performed well and could be the answer for CB2. There is still FA CB help available. And yes while there is some risk in going with a vet CB and a mid round selection I am hoping the FO is willing to take that risk if it means taking the WR they see as the BPA at the time of the 1st round pick.

Plenty is: Haden/Fuller/Buoye/Callahan/Harris/Rhodes Tre didn't play against the Chiefs Maybe the answer is Tre and Dane, with a short term vet CB, and groom another CB.

Logic doesn't say you approach every position the same. The FO could want a cheap veteran CB. You don't attack with that mindset, you wait. The well is not almost completely dry, there are plenty out there, they just may be waiting it out.

I think that the choice of FA CB may depend on what happens in the draft. If a stud WR falls and no CB is chosen until late, the FO will probably invest more and in the FA CB. I don't know how they value the CBs but they might trade for Bradberry or invest in Fuller. If they get a CB early (say Booth), the FO may then look for a less expensive type, either short term vet CB - Sherman or the injury plagued K King/Callahan.

This team needs premium positions under rookie contracts. The days of buying $7M WR3's are coming to an end. We need to home grow them. This team is not built to rely on the RB and should keep the process of using a lower draft pick to fill the need. If Hall or Walker is there in the 2nd the Bills should consider it.

The question "what helps the Bills offense the most" in the short term, is the wrong question for the draft. The draft is for the long haul, the future. And the longer term needs to include finances in the picture. The draft is key in cap management. And cap management is key to long term success. At pick 25 you'll pay about $3M for several years. With an RB that $3M is looking to unseat Singletary at $2M while the WR3 is taking Sanders spot at $6M. If the WR becomes good he is worth Will Fuller to C Kirk money $10-15M, if the RB is good they are worth L Fournette money $6-7M.

One disadvantage of taking a CB in the first is the devaluing of the gem they found/developed in D Jackson. Looks to me like D Jackson can be starting material. But Jackson could be crowded out if you add Booth to Tre/Taron + the 2 safeties. On the other side at WR, Gabe would still get plenty of opportunity even with a new WR in the mix. I see more long term benefit of adding a stud WR than CB. Give Josh/Dorsey 4-5 years of a stud, home grown WR to develop and use. It would be exciting to watch. That's why I am hoping that the BPA at premium position of use works out on their board to be a WR. I hope the FO is valuing a C Watson/T Burks over McDuffie for instance. And i hope Booth is gone by our pick so they are not even tempted.

Sure - I like J Williams/T Burk/and even C Watson. But the question is if the FO goes a draft like Booth/Hall/T Anderson/IOL and doesn't get a WR. Who do you want in FA?

Who do you want? Here are some of the choices: Julio Jones - love it, but tough to get because he's used to big money $22M Landry - head case and probably wants too much and not a good fit W Fuller - good fit but last salary $10M TY Hilton - interesting, last salary $8M D Jackson - cheaper last salary $2M but old and played, might as well get Sanders OBJ - coming off injury