Einstein's Dog

How can you possibly say it was a bad deal without knowing the contract he is getting? Ridiculous.

I think people may misjudge how the FO tendered him with how the FO values him. Easy mistake to make. The tendering is more indicative of how the FO feels the market will price Bates. If Beane felt Bates is very good for the Bills but only mediocre for every one else, you don't price him to how you think he is, you let him see what the market is, and match it. That's what I hope they are doing.

I disagree, bringing in a round 1 WR is just plain smart. The drafted WR might be more of a hedge on an outrageous Davis demand. I believe Diggs is a core member of this team and you pay him.

I want them to bring back Bates because the line played its best ball with Bates in there. He brings continuity. If losing Bates doesn't mean Ford starts (or god forbid Mancz) then it means another hole to fill. I don't want holes, I want upgrades. I also don't want Kromer and his lust for a player altering the draft strategy of BPA.

I think you meant "wouldn't". This does not seem like it will be a tough decision. First off, we hope the Bills just match the Bears offer, end of story, he's a Bill. I'm hoping internally the Bills have raised their price limit on what they would pay Bates. The KC/Hill fall out should be that the Bills spend a little more for the upcoming season now.

I've been saying you don't build your team to beat anyone in particular. However, I think you might adjust your short term vs long term planning on your opinion of the overall chances in the upcoming season. What I am wondering is if now, the Bills FO leans in a little more on the short term. KC just downgraded for next season. It appears to many (and shown through Vegas odds) that the Bills opportunity has increased. Do you think the FO will adjust their plans? Will they now pay a higher price for say Haden (I hope so)? Will they now lean more towards a CB or IOL in round 1 than say the WR because of the earlier use (I hope not). Would they be more willing to entertain a higher price for Bradberry? Do they raise their internal limit on Bates?

The FO would have tiers, and I'm thinking there are about 5-6 WRs in the top tier. The top tier should have a much higher rate of being a stud. A stud WR is a much more valuable asset than a stud RB financially. Just look at the figures of the top 5 FA WRs vs the top 5 FA RBs - it's not close. Also missing and getting an average WR fills the Sanders spot of $6M for 3-4 years while hitting and getting a good RB is only replacing Singletary's meager salary. If the player is really good you would want to renegotiate their contract a year before they hit FA to keep them. It's a bad idea to give an RB a second contract early (see Dallas/Zeke or Car/McCaffery) I agree you want maximum value out of your picks.

I agree with you, that Singletary is replaceable. And to stay ahead of the game they should get a replacement now. But Singletary was a 3rd round pick and I don't think they need to invest more than that. They have WR, CB, IOL, then RB. If someone is there at Rd 3 or 4, should be a consideration.

This should be a cautionary tale of why you should never build a team with a goal to match up to a specific team. Things are much too fluid. Yes, losses to teams can expose your weaknesses and areas you need to improve. But you build the best team you can and keep in mind the cap ramifications of moves you need to make. I think the Bills are doing a great job of this.

But he isn't the number 1 prospect according to PFF. They have Kenneth Walker. Anyways, I preferred the first mock when they had the Bills getting Treylon Burks. With WRs getting ridiculously expensive, it's worth the shot to try and home grow a really good one. Our FA isn't done, Beane still has a little CB magic he's been holding onto.

If the FO feels (like I do) that J Williams is elite, then yes, I think they gladly take him. I think the FO hasn't given up on the long game. An elite WR is difficult to get and if you can draft one you really help your cap.

Who do you think Josh would want? The stud WR, that's who. That's why you would ask Josh, because that is who the FO wanted all along. You tell him, once you get this guy, Josh has to use him for at least 3 years. Josh will gladly agree. This is the Sanders replacement with much more long term potential value.

I'm a big WR in the first type, but if the draft unfolded that way with the top 5 WRs gone, I would think the FO would go CB. Andrew Booth maybe.

Great signing! I thought Crowder was out because of the $12M figure. I realize it's an estimate, but that is just out of whack. Spotrac had Crowder and Landry at the $12M estimate. What a deal.

I don't think so. Rivers > Ryan. Ryan looked cooked last year to me. This looks a lot more like when the Colts tried the reclamation project of Wentz. They may have a better leader than Wentz but they still have a putrid QB IMO.

Beane has also said that the passing game is the Bills fastball. Meaning should be the strength. Each year they added something - first K Benjamin, then J Brown/Beas and last year tried to upgrade- Sanders for Brown. So far this year they've backtracked - gotten rid of Sanders and Beasley. One advantage of going DL early in the drafts was even if the players selected were somewhat average, they were occupying expensive slots. The draftees were taking up the $8-10M Trent Murphy, Q Jefferson, V Butler salaries. Now, if they take a shot at WR, pretty high odds he will replace a Sanders/Beas salary/slot of at least $6M. Riskier to go CB because if he is the backup, they will have only got a $1-2M position filled. For $3-4M they can get a vet CB. For $3-4M in WR they get junk, maybe a washed Beas. They already made their Superbowl window move, now they need to keep the future in mind. A stud WR would accomplish both. A CB is based on a short term need.

WR Treylon Burks: 1. Will be one of the last tier 1 WRs left (J Williams/London/Olave/Wilson), won't get this level with second pick 2. Great fit - he's like a power forward of the WRs 6'3" 225 and fast. Helps bring some physicality to our finesse team. Known for YAC. 3. By going 1st round offense it helps even out the offseason emphasis previously on defense. 4. WR's are very expensive, he takes over Sanders/Beas expense. Great w progressive finances - Diggs now, Davis yr or two, Burks 4-5 5. We will get another FA CB. We're just waiting for the dust to settle and get a bargain. We make no-names look good. Made L Wallace into $4M man. Get a $3M vet CB and a round 2 CB and make do until Tre comes back.

I don't know about WR getting bare: Julio/Landry/Crowder/Beasley/Watkins/Humphries/Fuller/OBJ/D Jackson. Seems Beane is waiting it out. After a little bit, when the dust settles, one of these WRs will see that we're one of the only contenders with a wide open WR3 slot. If you are a WR wanting to do a one year "prove it" deal, this has the makings of a great opportunity. You just won't be getting the big payday this year.

I would certainly hope, and think, the FO values WRs - they haven't shown themselves to be stupid. They need to invest in the position. KC has Hill/Kelce/JuJu, Chargers have Keenan/M Williams, Cincy has the rookie/Higgins/Boyd. We shouldn't be rolling out Diggs and the bargains (4th rd Davis/McKenzie/3rd rd Knox). We really could use a veteran plus the draft pick. We don't need another "he's good for an "X" rounder type. We need a 'He's a stud" type, 1st rounder. J Williams/T Burke. If the 1st rounder is a somewhat miss, he will still occupy the WR3/4 spot for 3 years. A $6-$7M dollar slot. If we miss on CB he will be a backup filling in a $2M slot.

I agree that CB is in need of help. But I hope they address it with a FA and a high draft pick. BPA in area of expensive need kind of thing. If the draft goes in a way that their top tier WRs are gone, CB will probably be the choice. I am hoping they get a veteran CB and use round 1 for one of those top 5 WRs.

You forgot WR in your list of expensive ROI picks. The Bills FO has left the WR3 there for the taking for a rookie (no Sanders or Beas) Unless we're going to take a step backwards we need to have another good WR. The likes of Crowder or Landry are estimated to cost around $12M. Having a J Williams or T Burks would be a more cost effective way to address the situation. Plus you give longer term stability to Josh/Dorsey. And while many don't think it matters, I think it would be a great gesture to Josh to show the FO is not neglecting the offense (Green Bay style). The big FA money went into our defense, it would be add a nice element of balance to have the first round pick go to the offense. For RB, wait it out and get a cheap veteran, plus use a later round, maybe 4, and get another. Singletary's contract is coming up in a year and we may have to move on.

I think Crowder (or Landry) would certainly be excellent additions, but the problem is I don't think you can get them cheap. Spotrac has them both at $12M. The cost of decent WRs is expensive, that's why it's important to grow our own. Get the decent vet corner, go round 1 WR, round 2 CB, then IOL.

The problem is the opportunity cost of a 1st rounder. In FA you can buy the top tier RBs for around $6-7M, while the price for good WRs is over >20M. Viewed in that light I think it is pretty obvious what the FO should be trying to acquire with the 1st round pick. Another 3rd or 4th round RB plus low priced veteran is fine. To the OP, plenty of RBs remain - Fournette, Michel, R Penny, M Gordon, McKinnon. Waiting is paying off as the price is dropping - Miami foolishly paid $6M for Edmonds while Patterson is down to $5M.

I think Beane waits. He'll get a great value RB who has been (in their mind) disrespected. Kind of like the last RB standing. Lots of RBs left. Fournette, Penny, Michel, Patterson, Gordon, and if K Hunt is released, are the pool I hope the FO is waiting on. As some start coming off the board the others get nervous playing for a winner will look more attractive.

And the smarter teams add a financial consideration to the mix. For instance, the tier 1 RBs are estimated in FA at $7M while WRs are going over $15M for C Kirk types.