Einstein's Dog

I agree with you that it is a long shot to Kirk. If the Bills weren't going to pay Beas $7M I don't see them paying C Kirk >$10M. And that's okay because to me it seems like it would be a bad decision. Getting a WR in the draft is clearly the way to go. Cheap developing WR for Josh is the medium/long term answer. In the short term I would rather they get Gronk for $8M, re-sign McKenzie for $3M and work in their draft pick.

I think Dorsey is a smart guy, great hire. He has a working relationship w Josh and that will continue. Dorsey's greatest influence is Daboll. But even Daboll would be different next year had he stayed, because of two key components that I didn't see addressed yet: 1. Personnel - if Beane can bring in Gronk, a lot of what we will see will change from last year. Not because of Dorsey's past at the U with Chudzinski, but because he has Knox and Gronk. If Beane instead finds a bargain with C Kirk or Berrios, then it is reasonable to expect a different offensive emphasis. Or god forbid, the dreaded Splash moves of Barclay or McCaffery - if here, expect the ball to get in their hands. 2. Josh's development- Josh isn't done developing (as scary as that may be for our opposition). Love to see Josh start calling some of his own plays. Sprinkle in some no huddles to catch the defense off guard. Make a concerted effort to run Josh less.

The idea that the FO hasn't made moves before is wrong. Diggs was huge. They tried for JJ and Ertz last year. But they have figures in mind. The hope is that they can get one of the bigger names at market value or below - to get a good deal on a position of need. Getting Gronk or C Jones could easily fit that profile. And those aren't adding players for just Splash.

Signing Gronk would be a great team bolstering move! TE2 is a need. And Gronk is more than TE2. If the FO can get Gronk in here for a home discount of $8M or less it is a great move for the team. While it has Splash to some of us, others as noted in threads actually don't like it. But the problem with the OP is that it treats any move as being done for Splash. The Bills have tried to add high end FAs before - see JJ Watt/ Z Ertz but they have a figure in mind and have been outbid. How can you assess the move without knowing the contract details? Bills fans would have a right to be excited if the FO could bring in a Gronk or a Chandler Jones. To proactively call out any such move as initiated by the Pegulas with the intent of Splash is trolling. And now if any move is done there is no need to wonder what these trolls think of it, their bias is clearly already establised. The Bills have enough followers that there seems to be a niche market developed for Anti-Bills clicks. Obscure people/sources can see increased activity now by creating blogs/articles/twitters that are negative about the Bills.

Spotrac has him at $12.3. I think he made $9+ this year. If he dropped that would be great though.

I think you're over pricing what they would put into the position. Crowder and Kirk are both expected to go over $12M, and will want multi-year deals on top of that. So, sure they would be nice to have put they don't fit a medium term solution. I think the more likely plan is to get a bridge and a draft pick. The bridge probably would have been McKenzie but I don't know now. One plan is to wait out the FA rush and see who got left behind. Then offer the low end market rate of around $6M. And of course there is always my hope of adding Gronk.

Do people, like Dunne, use the term squib kick and pooch kick interchangably? Because a squib kick, which had always been a kick along the ground, would certainly have been a risky call - and generally no better than what they ended up with. A pooch kick that goes high and comes down at around the 10 is what should have been the call. So, IMO, squib kick or out of end zone are no different - both bad calls. The right play was a pooch kick.

No I'm hoping Coles money is going to Gronk. McK and a draft pick are the cheaper, longer term solutions. Neither of them are in the $6M range.

I think you misattributed that to Beas, it was unfortunately McKenzie. I say unfortunate because I think that will do McKenzie in also. The little blurbs about dissension make focusing on culture and fit a little more relevant. There had been a big opportunity here for McKenzie but he doesn't seem like a fit. I am with a lot of others who believe the FO let Beas know of the salary reduction in their plans. I trade is a great way to save face and attempt to get something for him. I don't think anyone will bite. I have preferred from the start a Gronk for Beas tradeoff. Adding another WR was always in the plans. Easier to get a good WR than a good experienced TE.

And reports have been the Bills talked with Gronk last year, and are now talking again this year. Pretty indicative that he fits. Gronk gave Tampa a deal when he signed. He gave under market price to play for a team he wanted. It looks like the Bills could be in a similar position, get him for $8M. Much better than the open market - Tonyan 10.5M, Njoku >10M, Schultz 12.5, Godert 14M, J Smith 12M. Time for the Bills to get a deal. As a recently annoited Gronkite, I feel its my duty to speak up. I don't want Gronk Kaepernicked out of here.

I think people need to start adding Singletary as a legit weapon if we add Gronk . With Gronk in the lineup one of the bigger beneficiaries will be Singletary. Bless Beas' heart but the upgrade to Gronk from Beas in the run game will be immense. And with an improved and more dangerous run game, defenses will be less prone to all out attacks on Josh. The whole offense will improve.

I hope Gronk comes here! It is my top hope for the offense. It is the way I hope the FO puts in $8M on the skills position. Gronk elevates the offensive potential in a multitude of ways. And another TE is definitely needed. TEs take a beating, both Gronk and Knox missed time. As far as Tre is concerned...I'm sorry what? Who is running the show here. The FO, McBeane bring in the players. Tre will need to put his big boy pants on and get with the program.

The OP didn't have my choice - Do not pay any RB $7M. I think you wait it out and get one of the disgruntled, angry, passed over vets, with something to prove. Get one on a reduced one year deal. We don't know who that is yet. IMO, this $7M we speak of for offensive improvement should be spent with a different allocation. An OL improvement should be in there. Then I'd like another TE, Gronk seems to be the best case scenario for that. Then there is the Beas situation, either renegotiate or get another slot. Plus draft picks can be used for grooming for the future positions in WR, OL, TE, and RB.

No, the Giants don't have to, it's probable that the new GM + Daboll want to. And they realize Barclay probably isn't something most teams want. The FO might be looking at a way to retool that doesn't anger the fan base too much. I don't want the Bills to take on Barclay. But as new trading partners it might be convenient if both sides traded potential future problems. Say the Bills gave Singletary + Beas + Mongo +5th for Barclay + Toney. Now we're talking.

And E Sanders was a multi-year effort. I hope you realize that $7M would be a home town discount. Gronk > J Smith (12.5), R Tonyan (est 10.5), D Schultz (est 12.3).

I think you missed Doc's sarcasm. As for Njoku, it seems like it would be show a slight mistake out of Clev if they re-sign him off the FA market at >$10M. Seems like they could have extended him prior to the FA period and a better financial deal. It's exactly why many of us are hoping the Bills get on to signing Knox, the cost will only go up. And Njoku for Cleveland shows the Bills should be upgrading the TE room. Locking up Knox is a big part of the equation, but also shoring up TE2. Cleveland will have Hooper and Njoku. Tampa had Gronk/OJ and Brate, New England bought Hunter and J Smith. The Bills should have more than one good TE.

Yeah, and let's not forget Green Bay has to bear some responsibility for the mess their in also. They didn't extend A Rogers when they could have had him at the $40M mark of Mahomes and Josh. Quite the opposite, they got cute and drafted what they thought would be Rogers replacement and let Rogers ride out his deal. That oh so clever GB FO now has to deal with a mess of its own making. They had a HOF QB, pretty much in his prime, and decided to try and draft his replacement early. Oops. Love lucked terrible and there is now no way to get Rogers with any kind of break now. They have to pay market price to keep him, $50M. No, he's literally won a Superbowl and the two most recent MVPs. If Carr is worth $40M, and K Murray is North of $40M, yes, A Rogers is $50M.

Yeah, the odds seem against it right now based on some of his responses from before. But that stuff is fluid. McKenzie didn't get big offers last year, and that may be the case again. If the Bills let Beas go, the situation here would look very tempting for McKenzie. If he gets a raise and is penciled in as the starter, just having to hold off a draft pick, I think that may be enough for him to realize that his problems last year were with some of the departed coaches.

Not many non-cautionary tales out there though. Godert at $14M, H Hunter $12.5, A Hooper's old contract at $10.5. And soon to be on the scene R Tonyan at approx $10.5 and Schultz over $12M, along with Gesicki, who is a glorified slot, at >$12M. When looking through the salaries the only kind of deals were Gronk and Ertz. I would like to see the FO extend Knox into the 10M+ range and get Gronk. Full service TEs take a beating. Both Knox and Gronk missed time. Give the Beas money to Gronk. The Bills did better with McK when Beas was out, than they did w Sweeney when Knox was out. Re-sign McK and draft a new slot.

There is incentive for both sides to do a deal. Knox would get more money now, a guarantee and a signing bonus. The Bills FO should want to get him in a contract early if they like him and want him for the future. And the Bills should want a top ten TE at a 2022 market rate in their plans for the future. As for Josh, our interlligent FO will never let him hit free agency, they will continue to redo the contract before it expires. You start by bringing in excellent points about how there is more to a TE than just yardage but end up with a terrible result. Look at his snap percentage, blocking upgrade, and TDs. You ask "what happens if he just reproduces?", you mean stays a top ten TE? Pay him like a top ten TE, but do it now before you have to pay him like a top 5 TE at 2023 prices. $6M to $8M is not going to do it. J Smith got $12M last year. What's the plan when Knox leaves, buy a R Tonyan for the estimated $10.8M or the Schultz at $12.3, and those are this years estimated prices - no one sees the prices coming down. Godert got $14M last year. If Knox hits FA, you're right someone will probably send an overpay offer, but it will certainly not be a paltry $6-8M range, more like $13-15M at that point. The FO should not let that happen.

But there is incentive for Knox to get a deal done. For Knox there is getting guaranteed money and a bigger salary earlier. If this is a place Knox wants to be, and he is being treated fairly he should be receptive to taking the early deal - just as Josh did before him. If Knox performs the way everyone hopes, the Bills would probably renegotiate his contract before it expires in a similar fashion again- just as we all hope they will do with Josh. This isn't the same FO that dealt with J Peters.

I agree. Sign Knox. Still could use another TE though, a better TE2. Seems like they thought about Ertz last year, this year I hope they investigate Gronk.

I don't like the idea of KC getting McCaffrey. Makes them superbowl favorites in my book. PS - I know McC is technically not a FA, but a lot of chatter that he can be had.

Tonyan's situation might be an excellent little helper to get Knox to sign early. The injury bug. Hopefully it might be used before FA though. Because spotrac is estimating Tonyan signing for $10.8, injury and all.

I disagree that this is a tough decision. Pay the man market salary soon. The longer you wait the higher it goes, until it gets frenzied in the FA market. After FA this year, the market for Knox seems like it will be a Tonyan/Schultz level a little north of $12M/yr. If they wait until then, then pay it. Knox is worth it. I would advise them not to wait, try and sneak Knox in under that amount now. It will look good later (see Josh contract before Jackson/Murray). Knox is a poster child for the process. Raw, drafted, player who has worked hard and improved dramatically. He is improving into the top ten TE category. Knox is the type you lock up early, and long term, and fill in the gaps around. Knox is a central culture type guy, true Bills material. This differs from the C Kirk situation in that the Bills can negotiate prior to the end of his contract. Market contracts with guaranteed money a year early are a great way to get a deal done. And what about the alternatives? TEs are notoriously bad as rookies, can't count on that at all. Our other TEs right now are a joke. And some schlep like the OP started with, Ian Thomas, is going for 3yr $16.5M. To me, it's a no-brainer you pay Knox, the sooner the better.