Einstein's Dog

You're saying "on the field" but refering to off the field. I understand people are frustrated, including our FO- the covid skip, the OTA miss, and time off last year are all annoying. But the guy was not a total screw up. Came here in fantastic shape. Really looked good out to the gate. People are quick to forget how in 2020 we talked a lot about how Star's absence was a large factor in the overall disappointing showing of the D that year. How missing Star wasn't just a downgrade at that position but was negatively affecting the other players performances as well. You don't get a player anywhere near the type of skill/experience/production Star can give us for $1.5M or even the $2.6M. The move is not to jettison a good player because you are upset with him, it is instead time for McD to get this guy back.

You're making the mistake of pegging his salary to his past production and not his current or projected skill level. And even going on past production how did Beas compare to McKenzie on a per game basis? Beas looked slower and less productive and his trajectory is downward. I don't think Beas' anticipated/extrapolated skill level is worth the current salary the Bills have him under contract for. So, yes, I think he is overpriced If Beas doesn't come down significantly in price I hope the Bills send him packing. There are alternatives, Berrios and McKenzie come to mind. Maybe Ertz or Gronk at that price point. Trade for Toney, imagine the numbers that guy could put up given the opportunity to play the slot receiver for Josh. And, yes, WRs are expensive, so it is important to keep drafting them and trying to grow our own.

Back on topic. With Sanders gone, Beas overpriced, and McKenzie barking, we need at least one FA WR. Get one in the draft and one off the market. Here are my choices based on potential price and fit: 1. OBJ- My crusade for OBJ has not caught much steam yet, so let me try again. Potential Splash signing. To my eyes he still has the goods, top 10ish. The uncertainty of his value (OBJ is listed at only $5.9M in Spotrac) means an opportunity. I'd like to see the FO go at him JJWatt style, float an early and best offer and make him think. Something like $13-14M for a year or two, and let the chips fall where they may. It would make it hard for OBJ to take a $16M offer from the NEs, Jets, even Clev's of the world without facing the hard reality that he is selling out for the money. 2. Berrios - seems like he might be a reasonably priced slot receiver. According to spotrac he is cheaper than Beas. If Beas doesn't come down in price significantly, this guy looks like a potential replacement. Of course would love C Kirk or Crowder but not at the estimated $12M.

I gave the article a click based on the tease "his contract is escapable for the first time in a long time." I thought people here had it wrong. Not really. What it did bring to light for me was the unpleasant reality of this may be a test of the business of football vs the game. Capwise it's a no-brainer, Star or no Star in a contract year for the difference of $1.5M. No question you keep him. But in money out the door it could cost the Pegula's over $3.5M. I know what Ralph would do.

I think a logical slight adjustment for Beane and Co to make is to take advantage of now being considered a SB Contender, offensive juggernaut, great QB, team. This upgrade allows for getting top shelf prove it players (see Fournette/OBJ/A Brown/Gronk). It has been done by NE, recently Tampa, and by the Rams. The Bills are now in that category and should be taking advantage. These are the top quality players that want to go to showcase themselves on proof it deals. See Fournette/OBJ/A Brown/Gronk/Ertz. I would like to see the Bills get a player or two from that pool now. My first choice is OBJ. Spotrac has OBJ estimated at under $6M. Gronk is back on the market, as is Ertz. A Brown could come dirt cheap.

My point was people were insinuating that Patterson could be some type of under the radar signing. He's not, and it would seem he would be looking for his big payday (he hasn't had one yet and this will probably be his one and only). OBJ, on the other hand, seems to come with a lot more intrigue. According to you (and me) he looks criminally underestimated by Spotrac at $5.6M . So, yes, OBJ's value is increasing, but to where? And with the uncertainty I think there may be an opportunity. I think OBJ would be worth $10M next year, and if the Bills offer is in the ballpark vs the Clev, NEs, and Jets of the world - I think he would opt for the Bills.

I like the idea of your end result, just think it is way too expensive to be considered. How about Diggs/OBJ/Davis/Gronk/Knox! More realistic IMO. Get OBJ ($5.6) and Gronk($8.3M) for $14M vs Godwin($18.1M)/Gesicki($11M) for $29M (per Spotrac estimates). OBJ is estimated at $5.6M and might be coming off a Superbowl win and the dismantling of that team. To my eye, OBJ is a top 10 talent in this league. If the Bills offer market price (which in my estimate is above Spotracs and rising but I don't care), I think we would be one of his top choices - QB, contender, excellent offense- and a little bit of the stick it to Clev by showing that at the next 2 different teams his numbers excelled. If I had my choice right now for the Superbowl between OBJ, Sanders, or Beasley, I'm taking OBJ. Gronk is estimated at $8.3M and might be looking to help his home town go to the Superbowl. So, if the Bills are in the market range, it is conceivable he would want to be here above everyone else. Gronk may be a little lumbering now, but he still put up good stats, and from where I view things, makes a concerted effort to block. Gronk would help the run game (unlike Gesicki who is a glorified slot- good, but not a real help blocking).

I like Patterson except I believe Spotrac when they estimate Patterson won't not be cheap, $9M range. An older RB who would want to get paid. My wish list among the FAs, factoring in Spotrac salaries: Gronk - $8M, I think he would do the hometown right at Market price OBJ - $6M. What a value. The guy still has the goods. I think he might want to go to another Superbowl contender. Bring back McKenzie - blame past usage problems on DaBoll. Spotrac doesn't even bother putting an estimate on him, pretty cheap I would imagine, couple million. Then draft CB, OL, WR, and TE (developmental) in a BPA kind of way.

Well done Promo! I think this will be one of those tweets K Warner erases. Certainly looks like K Warners early predictions of J Allen failure was being used as a basis for his bias, and Warner, once again, predicted a poor outcome. Doubling down.

$4-5M? Lets not insult the guy. Look at some current salaries J Smith $12M/ Jack Doyle $10/Nick Boyle $10/N Fant 12M/T Higbee 10M/Hooper $10M Spotrac puts out estimates, they give some for this years crop R Tonyan $10.8, D Schultz $12.6M. And prices almost always go up year over year. The smart move by the Bills is not to wait. Knox is the type of guy you want to have around, a homegrown Buffalo Bill. Tonyan and Schultz will set the market for Knox. Then the Bills extend Knox with upfront money and something comparable, before Knox ever hits free agency. That's what keeping your own is all about.

Extend Knox. Get Gronk for TE2ish at $7-8M. Draft a raw physical freak you can develop.

One benefit of having drafted him is the ability to negotiate early. Players like big money early. Give him the market rate for the several future years with some upfront and some guaranteed cash and a lot of people are happy. The possiblity of getting $10M guaranteed upfront next year as part of a salary of around $10M a year for the next four years would be very tempting to take, instead of waiting and then holding out for the top bidder at around $12-13M. Hopefully, Knox, like Josh before him, wants to lock into the situation he has in Buffalo.

The talent for next year isn't finalized yet. Does make you wonder how much of a say he will get. There seems a limited amount you can put into the offense, do they go C Patterson (9M) or Gronk (7), or OBJ (6M), or Fournette (6M). I disagree with the zero chance statement. If Dorsey stumps for Gronk, and we get him, he certainly would be doing so with the 12 personnel as a viable option.

It's not counterproductive if you take the long term view. You get and train a blossoming player and then sign him to big/market money a year before they are eligible to hit the free market. Most players are agreeable to that, get good guaranteed money a year early and up front- at pretty much the market rate (but the market pretty much just goes continually up). They will employ this move on Oliver next. On offense, I expect to see this done with Knox. Plus the DL are expensive pieces - Butler/Murphy/Addison are all over $8M. Just being able to get a player that allows those players to be jettisoned has an excellent financial benefit. For comparison, spotrac estimates getting a starting RB such as Fournette or J Connor would be in the $5-6M range.

"We" thought it was automatic? It is starting to look like the only drama in the hiring was whether the Pegulas would match the increased price brought about by some competition. Pretty clear it is not that he hates McDermott.

My thoughts: Wait on RB. While I do like C Patterson, not at the spotrac estimate of 9M. The value at RB is not there, estimates of 5-6M for J Connor, S Michel, M Gordon and L Fournette are just not worth it. Wait it out and get one cheap along with maybe a 3-4th rounder (again, but I don't think Moss worked out). WR - IMO, one is a value clearly above the rest. OBJ at $6M. Even if it goes up to $8M get it done. Guy is one and done in LA, things being equal I think he would choose the Bills (got the QB, pass oriented, SB contender, sticks it to Clev management). Looks to me, from the playoffs I've seen, OBJ is miles better than our current Beas (similar price). Also draft one to groom. Bring back McK. TE - Gronk. Estimated at around $8M. Bridge for second TE, draft a freak to train, and extend/pay Knox early. Tonyan/Geisiki est at $11-12M, we need to home grow another one. D - Von Miller $10M. No way to get a DL cheaply. Chandler would be nice but at $14.5M looks a little too rich. Might just have to re-sign J hughes at $3M and go all O. An offense w Josh lining up with Diggs/OBJ/Davis/Knox and Gronk would be built to outscore the other team. A fun way to go.

Good offenses can put up points on anyone when they are on. It's by design from the NFL, it makes for entertaining football. Defensive rankings are relative to the others. No defense in this era will meet this "elite" standard from the past many seem to be striving for. When ranking the Bills defense is when you use the stats. Maybe you feel you should adjust for the QBs faced, but then be fair and do that with the other teams. And the "lucky" turnovers would need to be adjusted on all teams also (or not, because you are just getting ridiculous now). The fire Frazier brigade is showing the emotional IQ of a spoiled gnat. Frazier had a top 5 defense. In the playoffs he was playing without his top paid player. Yes, I think he had a poor 13 seconds and OT.

They are trying to develop the draft picks. That's a key part to the overall strategy. Going after real pass rushers comes at a large expense. JJWatt was $17M and even a post prime Jerry will fetch a pretty penny. I would rather have had Tre While in there than an exhausted JJ Watt.

It was an unusual, high scoring, frenetic game, where even the rotational players were exhausted. How do you think a smaller rotation would have fared in that environment? They would have been more exhausted! The loss is not on the DL. And the game in no way is indicative of a failed DL philosophy. Your reasoning is flawed.

To the OP, yes, Knox has shown enough! This is the process they speak of. Draft a raw stud, develop him, and keep him. And furthermore the smart teams extend before the contract is up. Knox should be treated in the Josh/Tre category of working out the contract before they are done with their original one. That is the advantage you have from drafting smart. You can extend them at a fair price before they hit the open market. They get money early and the Bills get a good improving player at market rate (and the market keeps going up). To Colorado, the question will be what it will take. I think Knox will be reasonable but Kroft got $6, Jonnu and Hunter got $12M. Yes, if they can get him for $8 for several years, you take it. I don't know if that is enough to get it done.

Because right after the season ended he said his decision wasn't dependent upon Brady. Tampa is looking like a dumpster fire, no reason to go back there. Buffalo seems like a logical potential spot because he considered Buffalo before. It's his home town. I think a lot of us can relate to the thought that if we were a rich, star player toward the end of our career,, we'd like to play for our home town. Of the market price offers I believe the Bills would have one of the best shots - home town, good QB, almost lock for playoffs, superbowl potential. And the Bills roster construction looks like they could use him - Sanders looks out, McK out, Beas questionable. The PFF article estimated the cost of Gronk as $7M. The Bills could figure that out.

I think Gronk would be a great add. The TE2 is a definite problem right now and having two quality TEs would be a huge benefit. Gronk is also a good blocker and two TE sets would should be incorporated. I think Gronk would come here at the market rate, hometown and all. I think he is a better get than Ertz and I was for that move at the time.

I'll go with Gronk! This team needs another quality TE. People have been touting Geiski but he would be more expensive and would interfere with the culture of developing from within. I expect the FO to extend Knox next year while a nice cap friendly extension can be done. Gronk would be viewed by all as a temporary fix And I think he would come at a reasonable price, PFF had him at $7M. Gronk might want to end his career in the home town - it would be a big factor for me in his situation. I think Brady is retiring and Gronk was more inclined to do another year. I also think Gronk could fit right in for the culture aspect. While Gronk is older and looks a little slow, he has great hands and actually blocks.

I think one of the main reasons for considering this a successful season is it has solidified the Bills as a top team for the future. Last season was shown not to be a fluke. The Bills are not a one year wonder. The football world will take notice, and deservedly so - another double digit win season, another conference championship, another playoff victory. All the key players will be back next year. The Bills are now a top tier team for the foreseeable future! Lots of hype, TV coverage, prime time games. The Bills have established themselves as a cut above the Clevelands, Indy, Pitts, and New Englands of the world. It's great for the long time fans to now be able to talk to coworkers/friends from the perspective of an upper echelon team. Of course I want to win it all. And I'll be disappointed with any loss. But as a known Bills fan, as the subject of football comes up, i will enjoy taking part in the discussions.

I just finished reading the Herald Tribune recap and coverage of the Bills game! I came to a quote in the paper from Josh "Honestly, I thought I threw the ball away". This does not mean (from above) Josh was "trying to throw the ball away".. And quite a bit different than the quote on the deceptive tweet you linked from Matthew Boyd saying "Josh Allen admits he wasn't trying to throw the ball to Dawson Knox...." - please don't post any more tweets from that jackwagon, like he is some kind of expert. What Josh is meaning is he didn't think it was going to be caught. If Josh had been trying to throw the ball away it would have been out of the end zone.