Einstein's Dog

I think you missed Doc's sarcasm. As for Njoku, it seems like it would be show a slight mistake out of Clev if they re-sign him off the FA market at >$10M. Seems like they could have extended him prior to the FA period and a better financial deal. It's exactly why many of us are hoping the Bills get on to signing Knox, the cost will only go up. And Njoku for Cleveland shows the Bills should be upgrading the TE room. Locking up Knox is a big part of the equation, but also shoring up TE2. Cleveland will have Hooper and Njoku. Tampa had Gronk/OJ and Brate, New England bought Hunter and J Smith. The Bills should have more than one good TE.

Yeah, and let's not forget Green Bay has to bear some responsibility for the mess their in also. They didn't extend A Rogers when they could have had him at the $40M mark of Mahomes and Josh. Quite the opposite, they got cute and drafted what they thought would be Rogers replacement and let Rogers ride out his deal. That oh so clever GB FO now has to deal with a mess of its own making. They had a HOF QB, pretty much in his prime, and decided to try and draft his replacement early. Oops. Love lucked terrible and there is now no way to get Rogers with any kind of break now. They have to pay market price to keep him, $50M. No, he's literally won a Superbowl and the two most recent MVPs. If Carr is worth $40M, and K Murray is North of $40M, yes, A Rogers is $50M.

Yeah, the odds seem against it right now based on some of his responses from before. But that stuff is fluid. McKenzie didn't get big offers last year, and that may be the case again. If the Bills let Beas go, the situation here would look very tempting for McKenzie. If he gets a raise and is penciled in as the starter, just having to hold off a draft pick, I think that may be enough for him to realize that his problems last year were with some of the departed coaches.

Not many non-cautionary tales out there though. Godert at $14M, H Hunter $12.5, A Hooper's old contract at $10.5. And soon to be on the scene R Tonyan at approx $10.5 and Schultz over $12M, along with Gesicki, who is a glorified slot, at >$12M. When looking through the salaries the only kind of deals were Gronk and Ertz. I would like to see the FO extend Knox into the 10M+ range and get Gronk. Full service TEs take a beating. Both Knox and Gronk missed time. Give the Beas money to Gronk. The Bills did better with McK when Beas was out, than they did w Sweeney when Knox was out. Re-sign McK and draft a new slot.

There is incentive for both sides to do a deal. Knox would get more money now, a guarantee and a signing bonus. The Bills FO should want to get him in a contract early if they like him and want him for the future. And the Bills should want a top ten TE at a 2022 market rate in their plans for the future. As for Josh, our interlligent FO will never let him hit free agency, they will continue to redo the contract before it expires. You start by bringing in excellent points about how there is more to a TE than just yardage but end up with a terrible result. Look at his snap percentage, blocking upgrade, and TDs. You ask "what happens if he just reproduces?", you mean stays a top ten TE? Pay him like a top ten TE, but do it now before you have to pay him like a top 5 TE at 2023 prices. $6M to $8M is not going to do it. J Smith got $12M last year. What's the plan when Knox leaves, buy a R Tonyan for the estimated $10.8M or the Schultz at $12.3, and those are this years estimated prices - no one sees the prices coming down. Godert got $14M last year. If Knox hits FA, you're right someone will probably send an overpay offer, but it will certainly not be a paltry $6-8M range, more like $13-15M at that point. The FO should not let that happen.

But there is incentive for Knox to get a deal done. For Knox there is getting guaranteed money and a bigger salary earlier. If this is a place Knox wants to be, and he is being treated fairly he should be receptive to taking the early deal - just as Josh did before him. If Knox performs the way everyone hopes, the Bills would probably renegotiate his contract before it expires in a similar fashion again- just as we all hope they will do with Josh. This isn't the same FO that dealt with J Peters.

I agree. Sign Knox. Still could use another TE though, a better TE2. Seems like they thought about Ertz last year, this year I hope they investigate Gronk.

I don't like the idea of KC getting McCaffrey. Makes them superbowl favorites in my book. PS - I know McC is technically not a FA, but a lot of chatter that he can be had.

Tonyan's situation might be an excellent little helper to get Knox to sign early. The injury bug. Hopefully it might be used before FA though. Because spotrac is estimating Tonyan signing for $10.8, injury and all.

I disagree that this is a tough decision. Pay the man market salary soon. The longer you wait the higher it goes, until it gets frenzied in the FA market. After FA this year, the market for Knox seems like it will be a Tonyan/Schultz level a little north of $12M/yr. If they wait until then, then pay it. Knox is worth it. I would advise them not to wait, try and sneak Knox in under that amount now. It will look good later (see Josh contract before Jackson/Murray). Knox is a poster child for the process. Raw, drafted, player who has worked hard and improved dramatically. He is improving into the top ten TE category. Knox is the type you lock up early, and long term, and fill in the gaps around. Knox is a central culture type guy, true Bills material. This differs from the C Kirk situation in that the Bills can negotiate prior to the end of his contract. Market contracts with guaranteed money a year early are a great way to get a deal done. And what about the alternatives? TEs are notoriously bad as rookies, can't count on that at all. Our other TEs right now are a joke. And some schlep like the OP started with, Ian Thomas, is going for 3yr $16.5M. To me, it's a no-brainer you pay Knox, the sooner the better.

I think you should adjust your comparisons to more relevant samples, like say RBs selected within the first 10 picks. Or maybe HOF RBs (which CMC certainly could be). CMC is closer to the HOF sample than the average RB sample. When you say the numbers are out there, you are refering to small sample sizes with high variability. Hard to apply those figures as any indicator of how CMC will do. I think CMC will rebound. Here is Josh's Thurman Thomas. And no offense to the 90s Bills but this has the look of: Josh>Kelly, CMC>Thurman, Diggs>Reed, offensive juggernaut. I floated the Edmunds throw-in because I was agreeing with the poster who couldn't believe the CMC acquisition would be possible for a 3rd and 5th (plus paying $8M). IMO, trading Edmunds helps the FO (and my fears) get out of paying Edmunds big money.

1. Yes to Fitz - need QB backup. If he comes at the reasonable price, definetely. 2. No to Mack - Not enough increase over Singletary - and too expensive. Draft one, and wait and get vet RB cheap dregs (like Fournette fell to Tampa) 3. Maybe to Berrios - depends on Beas renegotiations and McK possibilities. Plus draft pick. 4. Yes to Corbett! Absolutely, and has worked with Kromer 5. No to Ogbah. Get a higher profile better DLman - Von Miller/C Jones/Clowney 6. No to Ward - draft pick instead 7. Bonus-- Yes to Gronk. Need a TE2 I like Sal's ideas, they just need a little tweaking.

And yet, there are a decent amount of people on here that are saying "No way". For me, I'd love to see them throw in Edmunds on a deal like this. I think this would be a great way to move on from that looming decision.

I agree with the person didn't need to be name called, he was presenting a different view. And like GunnerBill, I disagree with his view, I think Diggs is slightly underpaid. Although this is almost always the case when you are an older contract. I disagree with you on letting Diggs contract go. It is a good strategy by the FO to find talent and lock it up a year or two early. Josh/Diggs/Dion/Tre and soon to be Knox and then Davis, then Bass and then Brown. These mostly draftees (aside from Diggs) should be shown early contracts to entice them to sign and stay. They are the core.

Don't fall for it. Big mistake to let Knox test free agency. First, the tag will be no where near $9M, Gesicki was fighting to not be classified as a TE to avoid the >11M franchise tag, and it will continue going up rapidly. Godert just got over $14M, J Smith and H Henry got $12M last year. This year they'll add Gesicki/Schultz/ and Tonyan. Second, it should be an objective to surround Josh with weapons, and to keep some consistency - this offense is humming and getting better and Knox is part of that. Third, you will have to pay to get another TE. You can't just have rookies at this position. Some mid one like Rudolph is $6M. You sign Knox at his market rate a year early. That's one advantage of drafting and developing a player. You give him Tonyan money in a multi-year deal. Initially it will seem like a lot, but people will be saying the same things they are about Josh's contract in two years. The Bills need to budget around the decent deal they'll give/get with Knox. If necessary the FO could allot less to the WR room. Replace Sanders with draft pick Davis, replace Beas w McKenzie and start working in a draft pick. It seems easier to me to draft and put in a WR than a TE.

We agree on a lot, but where we differ is on Knox, I think he is a keeper. IMO, Knox is certainly on the Tonyan/Schultz/J Smith level. And if you don't sign Knox you're going down a treachorous road. The bandaids of Gronk or Ertz are not the long term solution. And going into the full blown free agency market for a TE will get ugly. I want the long term offensive team composition to include Knox and someone else. Don't lose Knox, sign him early. I'm with you on Gronk. I would love to see it. TE2 is a deficiency. I rate Gronk over Ertz because of blocking. I also agree on drafting a TE. But it generally takes TEs time to develop. The drafted TE would be more of a replacement for Gronk than Knox. And yes, the fact that Knox is already among the best TEs the Bills have had shouldn't matter from a financial perspective. But from a fans perspective I like it. And Knox is kind of a poster child for some of the things the FO has been saying - build from within, pay your own, culture. Plus he is improving, getting better, not only does the market generally go up every year, Knox's trajectory has been strongly rising. Lock him up early!

And it goes the other way on the misconception of Knox salary. A Hooper ($10M), R Tonyan (spotrac est $10.8M), and J Smith ($12M) all didn't go over 500 yards. Market data is out there, with more to come- R Tonyan and D Schultz are FAs this year. Last year Hunter/J Smith got $12M, Goedert $14M. Beane and Co need to factor in a market rate TE so we can continue to have a top notch offense. Prices don't drop. One advantage to drafting and developing is extending and paying market rates a year early. You do that with Knox. Knox offers continuity, upside, culture fit, and the odds on favorite to be the best TE the Bills have ever had. It boggles my mind that some people don't even want to pay him the market rate.

My toughts: 1. get D lineman stud- buy one of C Jones, clowney, or Von Miller. They were going for JJ last year, so not out of the question 2. Trade for Toney + Barkley - give up Beasley/Singletary/Mongo + Edmunds.- actual cap savings 3 add/buy TE2 - get Gronk for 8M. If not then Ertz 4..draft-CB+IOL+RB2+Edmunds replacement.

"Weather or not" there is any substance to this post lets not overlook that this site was due for another cry for McDermott's head. If you are some type of long time fan who is excited about the future - sees a competent FO, good coach, and franchise QB -and see a possible 8 year run as a top team in the league - please take care in the threads you open. Your buzz can be negatively affected by the newbie fans who want, no demand, a superbowl win every year.

I like Singletary, but to me the problem is, RBs are not worth it. I would like to see them draft another. Market price for veteran RBs look to be in the $5-6M range. Spotrac estimates Fournette/Connor/Michel in the $5-6m range and G Edwards/K Drake brought in $4-5M last year. The FO loves Edmunds. They might extend him. I didn't count Ford because I don't see much decision needed, you let his contract play out

There were people who thought giving Josh the extension early was risky. These are the type of small risks the FO needs to continue. Knox is looking like the best TE the Bills have ever had, and people are hesitant to pay him Tonyan money. If you have some doubts on the "pay your own" philosophy please keep the focus where it belongs - Singletary and Edmunds.

What it does show though is it is a wise decision to lock up your good players early. To Beane's credit he was sold on Josh early enough to extend him early. With rising prices it is a good policy to extend at market price a year in advance. I think they will do it for Knox and Davis (and Diggs' new contract). You don't get out unscathed but if you wait it is worse.

Yes, the smart money is on escalating salaries. That's why it makes sense to extend good players who you will have for multiple seasons, early. Knox and Diggs, and soon Davis come to mind.

Lost interest? Hell, no! The Bills are an excellent team and look to be a contender for the next decade! Everything pro football is interesting now. I could see New England fans pretending it's no longer interesting, that the NFL has somehow changed. But this is a great time for any long time Bills fans!!

I thought the OL played well at the end. Just give the new coach those guys and a draft pick and see what happens. I would prefer to see a run at an elite Dlineman. The earlier draft picks aren't wasted because they still replace high priced prior pieces such as Butler/Addison/Hughes. But adding a proven top level guy would really help. Either being highest bidder or a draft+pay combo, getting an elite in here would be huge!