DCOrange

I mean, sure he could have led him a little more than that, but it pretty much hit him dead on. He didn't have to reach back for it or anything. Ignoring the incoming tackler that might have been able to knock it loose, this is a very easy catch.

I barely remember the game and have no idea when exactly it was. I remember it was against the San Francisco 49ers. Buffalo got off to what felt like a big lead and Steve Young/Jerry Rice came back to make it close but Buffalo ultimately held on to win.

Week 1 has all the makings of being one of those games that feels like a statement game in the moment but might not actually be one. Seems like both fan bases expect their respective team to be competing for a playoff spot this year (and I don't necessarily blame either group), but the reality is that both were bottom 10 teams last season. Could easily be one of those games where the winning team feels like it was a huge week 1 win only to find that neither team is actually good and it was just one blah team beating another blah team.

For context, he's done this the past couple years and mentions that of the 11 teams he's predicted to improve in the past two years, 9 of them have improved and they've improved by an average of 4 wins. His choices are generally based on advanced metrics such as Pythagorean wins, record in close games, etc. This year's teams: San Francisco 49ers Carolina Panthers Tampa Bay Buccaneers New York Jets New York Giants https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27296131/barnwell-picking-five-nfl-teams-most-likely-improve-2019

Are we all assuming 6 WRs are ultimately kept? We'll see how it translates to the preseason games, but it sounds like Ray Ray is making a decently strong push to be the backup slot man behind Beasley (unless Daboll views Zay as the backup slot). If we only kept 5 for whatever reason, I'd guess it would be Brown, Beasley, Roberts, Ray-Ray, and one of Zay/Foster.

Rumor is not PEDs but again, grain of salt. We’ll see if it actually ends up happening.

The rumor is drugs, but I haven't seen anyone super reputable reporting it. Just some whispers from some of the less reputable types like IncarceratedBob.

Rumor floating around that Golden Tate might be on the verge of getting suspended too. Man that would be a crazy start to the preseason for the Giants lol.

https://theathletic.com/980870/2019/07/26/teams-dont-have-to-establish-the-run-to-win-games-and-the-analytics-proves-it-but-the-run-isnt-dead-either/ It's unfortunately behind a pay wall, but this is a really in-depth look at the run game, featuring analytics, player/coach testimonies, etc. Some of the conclusions: Recommendations from the analytics community: 1. Don’t invest heavily in your run game because it doesn’t correlate with winning 2. Use more play action because it’s more effective than drop-back passing and it has proved to work without having to “establish the run” 3. Don’t run the ball into eight-man boxes 4. Test the limits of passing, don’t force the run “unnecessarily” 5. Use the pass to set up the run (run when defenses start to adjust to pass) 6. Deception in all its forms is the most important element in offense 7. The run game is valuable in short-yardage situations, in the red zone and for running out the clock. Players/Coach Testimony (with some math involved too) 1. The run game is less risky (duh), so it has value in situations due to that. 2. Defensive players felt that when they're getting gashed on the ground, they're more likely to bite on play-action even if the math doesn't support that 3. Offensive linemen feel that the running game is basically necessary just to get pass-rushers to think about it instead of just going for the sack every single play. 4. One coach of a team that uses analytics believes that some of the analytics are flawed due to using averages. His argument is that averages are skewed in favor of the passing game because the passing game produces more big plays; he would be in support of studies that use the median results rather than average and believes the median result might show that the run game produces more consistent yardage than the passing game does. 5. The run game impacts the types of pass coverage you see (duh). 6. You can repeat the same run play over and over and still have success, but that may not be the case with running the same pass play over and over. If the defense figures out the pass concept, they have an opportunity to jump the pass and create turnovers.

The talk about all the pre-snap motion, RBs/TEs lining up out wide, WRs lining up in the backfield, etc. has me feeling hopeful about the direction this offense is headed in for the first time maybe in my life (I was too young to really know what was going on during the Kelly years).

I voted Beasley but I would guess it'll be him or Zay. I think Foster and Brown will eat into each other's snaps/targets too much to lead the team. Beasley has the most ironclad role on the team so I'd lean towards him but we'll see. I don't expect any of them to be particularly productive volume wise but think they could be a decent unit regardless.

Yeah, he only had 6 catches all year so I believe it works out to 6 catches and 4 drops. I believe he was dead last among the 83 draft-eligible RBs in terms of drops and yards per route run.

This is all PFF metrics; 3rd row down is Singletary

It’s pretty simple why. The only better metrics out there for measuring accuracy are stuck behind pay walls so people make do with the best they can.

Tory Woodbury. I remember playing with him in old Madden games and then he ended up in Bills training camp one year and I basically just went and hung out with him while everyone else was pursuing the notable players for autographs.

I tend to think this isn't a big loss. Anyways, best of luck to him. I hope he can find a role for himself in the NBA.

Is this all that different from what we did with Whaley?

Sweet. I split an Athletic subscription with a few friends of mine to keep the individual cost done and it's well-worth it for us.

Stanley Morgan as a UDFA to Cinci is a big steal IMO; I think he was one of the best WRs in the draft. DK in the late 2nd was huge too. Think us getting Ford in the 2nd was also a big steal.

Again, this is based on Super Bowl Odds in Vegas. Until the games get played and Buffalo hopefully isn’t terrible, they’re going to be mocked at the top of the draft.

I don’t know that this is the year it pays off, but this roster is shaping up to be very good relative to the past decade of Bills teams. Still not all that confident it turns into a winning record or playoff football, but if Allen takes a big leap in year 2, I think that’ll be enough to get there. I’m just not ready to assume that improvement even if I like him a lot as a prospect.

Their draft order is based on Vegas’ super bowl odds. It has nothing to do with how good they think each team is.

If I remember correctly, those were the CBS and PFF mocks. CBS is notoriously terrible with their draft coverage. PFF is good but at that point in the process, their mocks are (I think) based on what they would personally do; not what they believe teams will actually do. And as I mentioned throughout the year, this year's WR class was insanely deep. For awhile, people had Johnson pegged in the 5-10 range as far as WRs go while others had him outside the top 25 WRs. Eventually almost everyone moved him down into the 20's.

I kinda understand it. The Z and slot spots are pretty well stocked at this point and this draft was pretty weak on X guys after DK Metcalf. I still would have liked to take one, but it’s not the end of the world.

Hodge’s limitations are even worse IMO. Linebacker that runs a slower than 5 second 40 is death.