DCOrange

Steelers and Browns are very reasonable to have above Buffalo IMO. Tampa and Jacksonville are at least debatable, though I would personally have Buffalo ahead of them. The ones that I mentioned I don't think have any reasonable case.

I think I'm relatively lower on the Bills than most Bills fans, but it's honestly insane if you have them 26th or 27th in the power rankings. There's no way any reasonable person would consider Buffalo to be a borderline bottom 5 team right now. Even if you don't think Buffalo is good, I don't see how you can possibly have them rated lower than any of Miami, Arizona, either NYC team, San Fran, Detroit, Oakland, Cinci, Washington, and probably Denver. So at worst, this team should be around #22.

The only ones I disagree with are the Jets and Colts. I think the Browns are a much more serious threat to a playoff spot than the Jets are and I think the Colts will ultimately prove to be a bigger threat than the Titans.

I'm going to group teams into 3 categories: Super Bowl (meaning I wouldn't be completely shocked if they made it), Playoffs (meaning I think they'll be in the hunt), and Pretenders. Teams are not listed in any particular order. Super Bowl: Patriots - Duh. Chiefs - Their offense will give them a chance to outscore anybody, Patriots included. Ravens - Their defense will continue to be good and I'm a believer in Lamar; not that he'll be a perfect passer like he was this week, but that he can be a very good starter, and more importantly, that he'll give his team a chance to win. Steelers - I'm almost out on them being in this category, but I want to see how they respond to the Week 1 travesty first. Seemed in the offseason that people just kind of assumed the offense would be fine without AB and that never really sat well with me, but it's still a very talented team. I'll give them another week. Rams - Duh. Saints - I'm not completely sold on them, but I think they'll probably hang around this category most of the year for me. Cowboys - The offense looked so much better in the first game under Kellen Moore; seems like they might finally open things up more for Dak and the results were obviously outstanding in Week 1. Very talented roster overall. Eagles - Similar to the Saints; not completely sold, but they're good enough to hang around this category. Packers - They have the looks of a very good defense and have Aaron Rodgers. Not much else needs to be said. Vikings - They have the looks of a very good defense and a complimentary offense. Obviously need to see Cousins throw more than 10 times in a game though. Playoffs: Bills - Probably have us on the outside looking in, but I think we'll hang around most of the year. Jets - I wanted to put them in the Pretenders group, but I'll give them a little more time to play themselves out of it; might be as soon as after a potential 0-2 start. They looked pretty terrible this week, but I think they're more talented than they looked. Browns - Too much talent to not regroup and get into the playoff hunt. The Entire AFC South - This division is wide-open to me. I think it ultimately comes down to the Colts and Texans, but I'm not ready to write Jacksonville and Tennessee off just yet. The Entire NFC South (besides the Contending Saints) - The Saints should safely win this division, but if Brees' arm starts to wear down as the year progresses, I think they could slide. Tampa is the weakest inclusion in this entire category, but their defense looked surprisingly decent and I expect their offense to get their crap together even if Jameis continues to make too many mistakes. Chargers - I don't believe in their offensive line and don't believe Rivers' arm will hold up over the course of the entire season, so they slide into the Playoff Contender group for me. Bears - Trubisky drops them down into this group. Seahawks - Not good enough to contend for a Super Bowl, but Wilson is good enough to keep them in the playoff hunt, at least for now. Pretenders: Dolphins - Duh. Cardinals - I think Kyler Murray has all the tools to become a star in the NFL, but this team is bad right now. Might be an exciting team to watch on a week-to-week basis, but bad nonetheless. Bengals - They're okay, but their division is just too strong for them to contend for a playoff spot. Broncos - Just don't see how they contend; at best they'll be the #3 team in the division, and more likely IMO, #4. Raiders - I think they can get to 6-8 wins if things break right, but I don't see them being strong enough to really challenge for a playoff spot. Giants - Duh. Redskins - They aren't as bad as the media prognosticators made them out to be, but they're still not good enough for a playoff spot. Lions - Similar to the Bengals. 49ers - Just not a believer in Jimmy G. At best they're #3 in the division and I don't see how they beat out the three playoff contenders in the NFC North, plus the two in the NFC East if they're already behind both the Rams and Seahawks in their own division.

He was graded the 4th highest rated runner this week. The reason his ranking is so low is because the vast majority of his snaps were in the passing game where he had nearly the lowest grade in the league. Edit: I see Gunner has been going back and forth with posters about this, so I'll add this: it's not just the 5 catches on 6 targets that impact Singletary's receiving grade. It's the plays where he wasn't targeted and the context around all of that. I have no idea what they saw; I didn't even watch the game, but I would guess they felt his routes were poor/sounds like he bobbled and or dropped a few passes.

Sure, but we'd laugh because we don't care about the other team's next 15 games; we only care that we stole the first one. Moving the ball on a consistent basis in week 1 is much more promising than a couple flukey turnovers are concerning.

Yeah, this is where I'm at. Kinda weird that he thinks Allen is that bad of a fantasy option though; I think he's pretty clearly going to be on the fringe of a top 12 fantasy guy this year.

I think the process is actually a lot more important than the results when you're talking about a sample size of one game. Moving the ball is more important than actually scoring because moving the ball suggests that the scores will come and will be repeatable. Obviously if it's week 17 and the Bills are still turning it over 4+ times per game, it doesn't matter if they moved the ball or not, but for Week 1 of the NFL season, moving the ball is probably more important for the rest of the season than some likely flukey turnovers are. Of course it's entirely possible that the Bills ability to move the ball so easily ends up being a fluke too, but the specific turnovers that we had yesterday almost certainly are.

Kyler has everything you’d ever want in a QB. He’s gonna be a star if he stays healthy. Really special talent.

This was from last year. Also, I wouldn’t be surprised if the pass were picked off had he thrown it. I feel like the guy underneath might have been able to jump it if he threw it at that point.

Yes, but the point is that he's not facing 8+ in the box on the overwhelming majority of his runs. Do you think the defense is just guessing wrong and stacking the box on all the pass plays or do you think, maybe, just maybe, that they just don't stack the box against Dallas all that much with or without Zeke?

FPI has Buffalo rated tied for the 6th best defense in the league. However, Buffalo is tied for 9th worst special teams and the 3rd worst offense, ahead of only Miami and Arizona. Also, it should be noted that prior to the start of the regular season, the biggest factor in FPI ratings are Vegas odds, which as we all know, don't have Buffalo rated highly this year. Other factors include returning starters (offense is pretty much brand new, so that probably cancels out a lot of the talent upgrade) and the remaining starters were average or worse last year. Knowing the criteria that they use, it shouldn't be surprising that the offense is graded particularly poorly.

Zeke was 20th out of 55 qualifying runners in the league in terms of how often he faced 8+ in the box last year, meaning he was basically average in that regard. He was behind guys like Royce Freeman, Alfred Morris, Austin Ekeler, Sony Michel, Dion Lewis, and Elijah McGuire. There isn't really much evidence that teams key on him any more than they do anyone else, and there also isn't really much evidence to suggest that teams stack the box against the best RBs in general, as the following RBs faced 8+ in the box less than the average RB: Alvin Kamara Christian McCaffrey Dalvin Cook Adrian Peterson (which is just really odd considering how bad the rest of the team was last year) LeSean McCoy Joe Mixon Kareem Hunt and 3rd least in the league: Todd Gurley

Think this sums up my thoughts well:

Yeah, he can handle a lot of touches. That's cool and all, but I can get 3 RBs for far less money that can do that too. I'd take almost any other team's RB situation over the Cowboys, especially considering the OLine Dallas has. Correlation =/= Causation. These stats are purely correlation. Teams only get 100 yard rushers these days when they're running the clock out with a lead. On the flipside, you're more likely to accrue more passing yards when you're playing catch up.

Yes, but you said he accounted for the majority of the team's yards when it was actually a very small fraction and nowhere remotely close to a majority.

The fact that the compromise was Dallas giving him MORE money in order to have him locked up for 8 years instead of a sane number is crazy. He accounted for less than 15% of the team's yards last year.

McCoy finished better than 5th on the team in receiving yards once, and that was because we arguably had the worst group of receivers in the league. Even then, he still managed to finish 5th last year when that was still the case.

I think Zeke was overpaid on his rookie contract, much less the one he just signed. Was a stupid draft pick at the time and is a stupid signing now.

Whatever the guaranteed amount is is probably still too much by a wide margin.

I think Brissett will play well statistically and the Colts will be in the hunt for the AFC South title.

I moved down to DC a few years back and finally made my way to Baltimore for the first time earlier this summer. We were only hanging around the waterfront area, but that area was really nice. Definitely hoping to go back again soon.

Not sure I'd be willing to do it if I were in their shoes but: It's the GM's 4th year in the role. He might not get a 5th if the season is a disaster as it appears likely to be. Clowney is only 26. He fits the timeline of a rebuilding team and will likely outplay whatever draft pick compensation they need to surrender to acquire him/outplay his next contract. At the same time, he probably won't be such a difference maker as to take them out of the running for a great QB prospect this year.

I don't think you have to worry about that. There's no chance that Disney makes their heroine evil. At best you might get her "going bad" very briefly to undermine the First Order from the other side or something. More likely IMO, this is just a vision seen through the eyes of Kylo or a test for herself similar to when Luke saw himself as Vader.

I totally understand why people would dislike Rodgers' personality. There's absolutely nothing wrong with his take on the Luck/fans booing thing though. He's 100% correct that those fans are idiots.