DCOrange

I edited my post after the fact, but just for your awareness, Agholor's true catch rate per PlayerProfiler.com (receptions / catchable targets) the past two years has been 85.3% and 83.3% respectively. Basically puts him on par or better than all of the Bills receivers. He's definitely nothing special as a player, but he's a potential starting caliber guy for sure and Buffalo could definitely use another one of those.

To be clear, I wouldn't offer more than a Day 3 pick for him at this point. We'd essentially be just taking a flier to see if a change of scenery does him any good. Edit: FWIW, he's caught 25 of 30 catchable targets this year (83.3%). Bills target leaders: Beasley: 30/36 - 83.3% Brown: 33/39 - 84.6% Knox: 12/21 - 57% So he's actually right in line with our top guys and considering their respective average depth of target, he's ahead of Beasley (and obviously Knox).

I'm definitely a Paul Rudd fan in general, but FWIW, I enjoyed this show a lot. I don't really know how I would categorize it but it was good IMO.

Jameis isn't great, but he's roughly an average starting QB. He's not so bad that you can write off a disappointing Evans stat due to the presence of Jameis. In reality though, the reason Evans' catch rate is relatively low is because the throws that come his way are generally low probability throws. Deep balls in general are low-percentage; add in the fact that Evans tends to get contested deep balls and it makes it even more low percentage. He's still a great, possibly even elite WR though. Having said that, I highly highly doubt Tampa has any interest in trading him. Worst case scenario (from their point of view), him and Godwin are exactly what they want in place for a new QB next year. Best case scenario is that Jameis settles in the 2nd half of the year and they have a great offense and an average or below-average defense. If Buffalo wants to trade for a WR, I would think there's at least some chance of getting the following guys: Difference makers: AJ Green Corey Davis Under-the-radar: Marqise Lee Nelson Agholer Paul Richardson I'd be fine with taking a flier on any of these guys depending on the price.

I don't think Tampa would trade Evans, but if for some reason they did, he certainly wouldn't be a rent-a-player. He has 4 or 5 years left on his contract (which is probably one of the main reasons Tampa wouldn't trade him in the first place).

Nah I was weighting it for snap counts when I was doing it too. It's definitely something else.

I'm guessing it's one of two things (or possibly both): 1. I know they have "initial grades" that are released like the day after the game but then they go back and assign final grades later on (I think they watch each game multiple times or something, not entirely sure of their process), so it's possible that the grades that they tweet out are sometimes the initial rating and therefore throw things off if you plug those in as the grades for a given week. 2. As I mentioned, I kinda wonder if there's some sort of adjustment that occurs based on the level of competition. Not sure; that doesn't sound like the way PFF generally explains their grading process, but something definitely occurs that throws the math off. That's not throwing their own stats under the bus. Adjusted completion percentage is still just a completion percentage at the end of the day, and most logical people would agree that completion percentage does not necessarily mean a QB is accurate. PFF has advanced beyond that and now charts the final location of each pass relative to the receiver and defender (and I'm guessing/hoping they also account for whether or not the pass causes the receiver to slow down, if the receiver just takes a poor angle, etc.) to determine how accurate a pass is. It's two completely different things. Adjusted completion percentage is just telling you what a QB's completion percentage would be if you adjust for dropped passes, spikes, throwaways, and passes that are batted down at the line of scrimmage. Their newer accuracy ratings are actually indicative of how accurate a QB is.

Just FWIW, I tried to track it this way last year...PFF retroactively goes back and adjusts grades from prior games. I’m not sure why or when, maybe some sort of adjustment related to the level of competition as they learn more about each team, but for example, there were times last year where the only way Allen or Edmunds could have possibly jumped up the way they did is if they received a grade higher than 100, which isn’t possible. Or there were cases where PFF tweeted out their exact grade for a given week but the math wouldn’t add up.

They have Bridgewater ranked 14th now. Honestly probably higher than I would have expected. Brissett is indeed really low; I'd be curious to find out why as well. Guessing it might boil down to similar situation as Allen: very low % of "big time throws" relative to turnover-worthy throws.

I think each team would take the same guy they took before honestly. Not the order I would personally have taken them in, but I think each team likely feels like they've seen enough to be confident in their respective choices with the only exception being the Cardinals. So I guess: Browns - Baker Jets - Darnold Bills - Allen Cardinals - Lamar Ravens - Rosen

Packers, Saints, Eagles, Raiders, Us

Hey man, one of them was on The Bachelorette. No online girlfriends for him.

He's a better passer right now than Vick ever was IMO. Vick didn't really develop his passing skills at all until he got to Philly. In Atlanta he was almost entirely reliant on his running ability and his cannon of an arm. Lamar's pocket presence is already among the best in the league and his ability to read defenses already surpasses Vick pretty comfortably.

I would have thought a 2nd for Sanders or AJ is a pretty high price and they're both significantly better than Sanu. Having said that, I'm sure at this point New England is just happy to have a WR that they can depend on to physically be on the field and play a role so maybe they actually preferred Sanu.

Yeah, Allen was terrible against New England, but he was at least playing QB. Darnold looks like he’s trying to help New England field fly balls for baseball season.

They’ve allowed like 1 passing TD to 18 INTs this year. They could play this version of the Jets each week and those numbers would still be insanely impressive.

If he's hurt he's hurt but there's really no reason to assume he'll be injured. And both Lamar and Allen have completed their passes at about the rate you'd expect given their passing profile. Lamar is creating a ton of plays every week and is leading the #1 or #2 offense in the NFL right now. Granted it's been a relatively easy schedule thus far but again, he's the biggest reason his team is winning games right now and the biggest reason they're scoring a lot of points. Point is, you said Baltimore wouldn't be winning games if not for their defense. Their defense has been average at best while Lamar has pioneered arguably the best offense in the league so far this season. He is quite literally the main reason Baltimore is winning their games. That absolutely cannot be said about Allen right now and I say that as someone that thinks Allen is playing fine for the most part and really likes him as a prospect. He simply isn't on Lamar's level right now.

Lamar (and Roman/Harbaugh) is easily the biggest reason Baltimore is winning games this year. That's why he's in the MVP race and Allen is not.

It's all significant. A coach that isn't willing to go for it in obvious situations is costing his team games and ultimately probably putting a ceiling on what the team can accomplish. Obviously the culture is important too and McDermott had that part in spades from the get-go but without the former, I'd probably be looking for a new coach.

They were actually lower on her chances than basically anybody else. I think by election day they were giving her roughly a 67% chance of winning compared to most of the other projections being in the 80-90% range. Like I said, I enjoy looking at them as just another data point. Just because something has a less than 50% chance of happening and then happens doesn't mean they were wrong. It just means the unlikelier outcome occurred.

This is exactly how I view it as well.Think that's probably my exact order too. I've always loved McDermott's leadership that he's shown since he first arrived, but I questioned some of his gameday decisions to the point that it made me question if he was the right guy. I think he's developing those skills pretty nicely though. Still has some issues, but in particular, he seems to have learned to adapt some analytics into his decision making on 4th downs, field goal/TD decisions, etc. that have me really gaining confidence in him.

Yep, I agree with that for the most part. My view of the QBs that bring a lot of running to the table has generally been that you still have to be able to pass (duh), but that if you're a very good runner, it increases your margin for error as a passer (i.e. the way it plays out in actuality is that it'll likely be easier to find holes in the defense due to the defense needing to expend more resources on stopping their running ability). I'd say that this applies to guys that are the level of runner that Josh Allen is, but Lamar is in a completely different class in that regard. He's legitimately as good a runner as probably like a top 10ish RB and is also throwing the ball like an average starting QB. I'm sure a couple teams will be able to play him very tough defensively (New England comes to mind), but with Roman's running schemes, Lamar's vertical passing ability, and Lamar's elusiveness within the pocket, he's turning into a very, very difficult QB to stop. He was IMO the best QB prospect in his draft class and he seems to be developing faster/more than a lot of people expected of him.

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2019-nfl-predictions/games/?ex_cid=rrpromo Understood that some people roll their eyes at 538, but I always enjoy looking at them as another data point. They currently project the Bills' chances to win each upcoming game as follows: Vs. Eagles: 58% Vs. Washington: 81% @ Cleveland: 51% @ Miami: 70% Vs. Denver: 72% @ Dallas: 36% Vs. Baltimore: 49% @ Pittsburgh: 52% @ New England: 21% Vs. Jets: 68% Technically that gives us a 12-4 record if every game goes according to projections but I'm guessing they end up at 11 for their projections due to how many of those games are viewed as roughly 50-50. That all adds up to a 78% of making the playoffs at the moment, the 4th highest chances in the AFC behind only New England, Kansas City, and Baltimore. In terms of winning the Super Bowl though, they have Buffalo with the 6th best chances in the AFC and 13th best odds in the league.

His route running is nothing special, but to be fair, nobody could move well on that field yesterday. It wasn't an epic mess like the Washington-San Fran game was, but players were slipping and sliding all over the place. For a guy that already isn't great at changing direction, he had no chance at it yesterday. And even with relatively sloppy route running, I don't think he's easy to cover at all, and I think that's what defenses have found out so far this year. His size/speed combo puts pressure on the defense on every snap. It's honestly amazing. Lamar is hovering around 5th-10th in the MVP race right now and people are actually still trying to say he can't play QB in the NFL. If Josh was playing nearly as well as Lamar has this season, we might be viewed as one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl this year with the defense we have.

Oh sorry, I could have sworn it said Winston, Mariota, and Fitzpatrick before for some reason lol. Anywho, you're right, they clearly don't think Baker has been bad. It's debatable whether or he actually has been bad. I think PFF would argue that a lot of his INTs were due to his WRs rather than himself and I know he's fared very well in categories such as big time throws that PFF values a lot. The other two they clearly think have been bad; they're only a handful of spots ahead of Allen. Edit: And PFF isn't basing their grades on numbers per se; at least not in the way that people seem to think where the grades are based off of stats. On the contrary, they're watching and grading each play and then those things basically feed into some of the other metrics that they're able to provide after the fact.