DabillsDaBillsDaBills

Comprehensive list of WRs with a cap hit greater than 20m Hopkins 27.25 Jones 22 Allen 20.025 Cooper 20 I don't think we're suddenly going to see a ton of 20+mm cap hits for WRs, especially with the cap (probably) going down this coming season. Diggs is the 16th highest cap hit at WR, which isn't low enough to be insulting. I predict he'd play out at least 1 more season before trying to restructure. Josh's (hopefully soon to come) mega deal won't kick in until the 22-23 season (at the earliest). Beane is surely aware of this and it will effect the batch of UFA signings this off-season, but we're hardly in cap trouble. A small bit of planning will make it very easy to retain Diggs and Allen without destroying our cap.

This loss has been easy to get over, but I would say the Jaguars would be the easiest. 2017 I was just ecstatic we broke the drought. That was a pretty mediocre Bills team that lucked into a playoff spot. While we had a small chance of beating the Jaguars, we had NO chance to beat the Patriots in the divisional round (let alone make a SB run). This year I have a sour taste in my mouth that we were dominated so thoroughly, but the fact it was so lopsided makes the game easy to get over (I won't be tormented by "what ifs").

I'm having a hard time putting much trust in a stat that says the Bills had the 4th best draft of 2019. Oliver, Ford, Singletary, and Knox are all starters, but I don't think any of them are difference makers. I can't rate any of them as better than replacement level. I don't think this was mentioned in your post, but how do you handle players that were drafted by the Bills, and then went to play for another team? I'm thinking of Wyatt Teller in particular, who was a great value 5th rd draft pick.....but he's playing for a different team. Personally I've been a bit critical of Beane's drafting. I'll normally start with "if we ignore White and Allen...." which I guess really isn't fair. He certainly deserves a ton of credit for drafting an all-pro QB, and for drafting an all pro CB (I don't really care if it was McD vs Beane for that selection).

This was far from Josh's best game, but he really wasn't bad given the circumstances. He had a few bad throws when he tried to force the ball into tight coverage (which were reasonable risks given the performance of our defense). At what point in the game do you think he was playing "nervous" ? At worst I think Josh was trying too hard and reverting to hero ball, but again, that was called for given the circumstances (Bills couldn't run the ball, WR not getting open, terrible O-line work, and the defense couldn't stop anyone). Do you think there's a single QB on the planet that would've won the game for the Bills had they started in Allen's spot? I don't

Yes, that was the only INT of the night. There were a couple throws where Allen forced it in, and DBs dropped fairly easy INTs. On to the OP, if Mahomes and Allen switched teams (everything else remaining the same) the Chiefs still win that game by multiple scores. Mahomes had a few nice plays where he dodged pressure and made a good throw, but other than that, he had all day to throw to wide open receivers and just dinked+dunked down the field. The Bills would've lost to an average QB, and Mahomes is far from average.

I'm surprised by all the people predicting the Bills to put up 30+ points. The Chiefs have a pretty good defense that doesn't get nearly enough credit. For my predictions.... If Mahomes plays and is at least close to 100% Chiefs 30 Bills 24 Without Mahomes or if he's really gimpy Bills 27 Chiefs 16

I said "one of" the worst takes on this site. I think that's justified and not hyperbole (absurd or otherwise). The idea that Murphy was worth the cap hit this year is ludicrous. Would we have won the game without Murphy? I'd say probably, but as you pointed out there's no way to know for sure. Does everyone agree that Murphy was NOT worth the 10mm* cap hit? I'll point out that the title of this thread is "Trent Murphy was worthy of the cap hit". Have you changed your mind since the original post? *Murphy's cap hit was 9,775,000 this year. I rounded it up to 10 I'm not disputing that Murphy had a positive impact on the Ravens game, I even said in my post he had a decent game and made some good plays. The "0 impact" was my assessment of what he contributed in the regular season.

I get that we're all high on endorphins after the win, but this is one of the worst takes I've ever read on this site. 10mm cap hit is "worth it" for a guy that was a healthy scratch for half the year, and made 0 impact in the regular season ? A decent playoff game with a few good plays (not even GREAT plays, just GOOD) is not even remotely close to outweighing how bad he was the rest of the year. If we're looking at a cap hit to contribution ratio he's easily the most overpaid guy on the team.

Loved the entire write up, and this part had me laughing like crazy

That was a surprisingly level headed and fair analysis. The Ravens do match up pretty well against us, and it would not be a huge shock if they win the game. I still think the Bills will win, but by no means will it be a cakewalk.

While that's factually true, I have to disagree with your conclusion. The Bills were not in a prevent defense up 24-10 with 14 minutes to play, and giving up all those rushing yards hurt a lot. That was pretty far from garbage time and nearly cost the Bills the game. The Colts were pretty effective running the ball through the first 3 quarters (outside of goal-to-go) even if they weren't dominating until the 4th. That's pretty typical for big rushing games (not a ton by halftime, and then they explode in the 2nd half). You're cherry picking stats by excluding 3 plays that disagree with your conclusion. Should the Colts ignore Allen's 3 longest passing plays and say they did a good job keeping him in check by holding him to 250 yards and 1 passing TD ?

Did....we watch the same game? Colts finished with 5+ yards per carry and absolutely gashed us on the ground all day. We did have a few TFL, but that doesn't make up for the rest of the game. Indianapolis Rushing 30 carries 163 yards 5.4 avg This was easily out worst defensive performance since the Chiefs game in week 6, and probably the worst we've had all year. Missed tackles, blown coverages, poor coverage, no sacks, no QB pressure, poor on 3rd down, couldn't stop the run, and couldn't stop the pass. We had some good plays (couple good pass breakups, couple TFL), but we never strung those together to force a punt. The Colts offense was stopped more often by unforced errors than by good plays from the Bills defense. The 4th and goal is a great example. Pittman was open, Rivers had time to throw the ball, but overthrew him by about an inch. Throughout the day Rivers had time to throw the ball, but missed open receivers. The Colts must've dropped about 5 easy catches. After our defense gave up a 14 play 7+ minute drive the Colts very reliable kicker missed a 33 yard FG by about an inch. I'm ecstatic that we won, but if our DEF plays like that against the Chiefs they will drop 50 points on us.

Nitpicking, but Reichs mysteriously passed FG would've given the Colts a 13-7 lead (not tied the game).

The best I can come up with why they let the play stand 1) All 4 reviews in the game previous to this play went in the Bills favor (2x Davis toe taps, overturned INT in the end zone, and failed Colts challenge on Moss fumble/injury). Now, I 100% think they got all those reviews correct, but some of them were very close. In general refs like to "even up" calls during a game. 2) End of game drama. It's a more exciting finish if that play is NOT a fumble, so refs let it stand I'd love to hear an official explanation from NFL head office though. This was pretty clearly a fumble, and it's disgraceful it wasn't overturned

One of the worst takes I've read on here (and that's saying something). Deshaun Watson just signed a 4 year 156mm contract. The guys opinion matters. I'll also point out that he didn't want to have final say or anything, he just wanted to be considered. From ESPN article: This time, Watson had met with Texans owner Cal McNair in several instances, sharing thoughts on certain candidates who came highly recommended, with Watson suggesting that the team at least talk to them, sources told ESPN. He did not expect Houston to hire those he endorsed, but Watson was hoping the Texans would respect the feelings of the group of teammates he was trying to represent, sources told ESPN. Watson wanted to at least have the opportunity to meet with ownership's finalists so he could offer thoughts from a player standpoint to benefit the team -- and then the Texans could hire who they wanted. That opportunity never came.

I'd say that.... 1 (superbowl win and MVP)>>>>>>0 (playoff wins) That should hopefully change this year, but you can't discount the playoff success that Mahomes has had.

We said the same thing about Trent Murphy, but he's still here in his 3rd season with his 10mm cap hit. It's possible to think Beane is a good GM while admitting that he's made some mistakes. I wouldn't call letting Philips and Lawson walk a mistake either. The problem was who Beane chose to replace them, and I worry that Addison was just good enough to keep around and not opt out of his contract. Big picture the Bills are one of the best teams in the league (at least while Allen is on rookie contract). It's tough to find anything to complain about 😄

My problem wasn't with letting Phillips and Lawson walk. They're pretty good role players, but not stars. My problem was trying to replace them with Addison and Butler. Addison has been a pretty big disappointment for a 3 year 30 mil contract.

I don't think that's right. Wentz active cap hit is 35mm in 2021 and dead cap (which will trigger if he's traded or cut) is 59mm. In 2022 those numbers go to 31mm active cap hit and 25mm dead cap. I don't think it's a stretch to say the Eagles are in the worst salary cap situation in NFL history. They're going to have to re-structure a lot of contracts to get under the cap. At least Wentz will be motivated to do so if he wants a chance to play next season.

Maybe not the most "chill" song, but I find it relaxing. Makes me feel like I want to ascend to a higher level of understanding

Marrone is the only one that could give a definitive answer, and he's never given his reason for opting out. A few years after the opt out he said he talked to the Pegulas and wished he had handled things differently and been more communicative through the process. https://buffalowdown.com/2017/03/02/buffalo-bills-doug-marrone-regret/ The rumor that made the most sense to me is that Marrone thought he was getting the NYJ head coach job (his dream job) and abruptly opted out from the Bills with no warning. The Bills FO was pretty shocked by that and reached out to other teams to let them know what had happened. NYJ decided to go with Todd Bowles instead and Marrone ended up an O-Line coach in Jacksonville. It's also believable that he didn't get along with the Bills FO and quit for that reason

His team almost made the Super Bowl because it had a good defense? Is that supposed to discredit him as a coach? I wonder how Marrone would be viewed if the Andy Dalton miracle had happened in 2014 and his 9-7 Bills squad snuck into the playoffs to end the drought instead of Mcdermott's 9-7 Bills team in 2017. St. Doug is still a punk for quitting on the Bills like he did, but people in this thread going on and on about him being a terrible coach are just wrong.

And we're 0-1 in the playoffs under Mcdermott after resting starters in a meaningless week 17 game

For me it's less about seeding and more about keeping this momentum rolling. The Bills are peaking at the right time and I wouldn't want to mess with our groove. The Steelers are more experienced (read: old) and Ben certainly looks like he could use the week off. If the Bills have anyone nursing nagging injuries I'm fine with resting them, but I want to see Allen and Diggs playing until (unless) the game is out of reach. You can't live in constant fear of injuries. Players can get injured in practice or even non-football activities. We can't put Allen in bubble wrap and tell him not to move until a playoff game.

The 2014-15 Panthers won the NFC South with a 7-8-1 record. Those Panthers and the 2010 Seahawks you mentioned both won their first round playoff game after qualifying for the playoffs with a losing record. Interestingly enough the only other times a team made it to the playoffs with a losing record was 1982. Both the Browns and Lions qualified with 4-5 records in a shortened season (I'm not sure if they should really count or not). If Wasington loses and NYG win we'll have a 6-10 division winner which would be the worst win % ever to make the playoffs.