MJS

47 games? Really?

Next step is to prove it in the playoffs!

If he wins the Superbowl this year I think the case can be made for sure. But right now that title goes to Mahomes. But that's fine. Allen is super good.

I like how the announcers kept asking if Lock could have a Josh Allen trajectory. We're talking about something that has never happened until Josh Allen. How can anyone expect Lock to do what Allen did? This is why that thread the other day was on point about GM's and Coaches trying to find the next Josh Allen and failing. It already has people putting too much hope into bad QB's.

Well. Kelly played in a different era. Not only were the rules different, but the league was still running it a lot. Our offense went through Thurman back then.

A higher seed also means a higher chance of playing at home in the divisional round as well. Without fans that doesn't mean as much, but it's good for the players and staff to not have to travel and be able to sleep in their own beds and whatnot.

Try to get a higher seed.

Everybody gets one!

Wow, terrible spot!

For sure. Smith was kind of a knuckle head as a player too, though. Had a great career, though.

Literally everything that comes out of his mouth is stupid. Can't stand that guy.

He needed the season pretty strong and also played well in the playoff game, so I don't know if I buy that.

I thought Belichick was the standard and everyone else was supposed to align to him...

I love how they are talking about how bad the Jets are at the end. Some things never change...

“If we’re in the playoffs, if the infection rate is under control and the capacity rate is under control and we come up with a smart, science-based way to do it, I would be all in favor" So the same thing he's been saying all along...

MY opinion is that you are a witch who knows the future. Am I not entitled to my opinion?

I would even say storyline is a bigger portion than that, but yeah, you need all three. You need mind numbing stats, you need to have one of the top 2 regular W/L season records, and you need that amazing storyline.

Sounds like you are a witch with a crystal ball. Just have to see how it plays out, stranger. They aren't picking him to be the MVP. They are just saying that the past 4 MVP's also happened to lead in this particular metric. Admittedly, it's a pretty small sample since they only go back to 2016. I would say Rodgers has the leg up this year and he doesn't lead. But there are still games left to play.

Gains can't exceed original length.

For now.

Here's what I found: "Expected Points Added (EPA) is a football statistic that seeks to measure the value of individual plays in terms of points. This is done by calculating the Expected Points(EP) of the down, distance, and field position situation at the start of a play and contrasting it with the situation at the end of the play." So they somehow have calculated what the expected points would be for every situation on the field and then measure that against what actually happens. It's a strange metric, but it does not seem subjective.

Here's an article on NFL.com that compares the next gen stats of some of the top MVP candidates. They specifically mention "EPA" as a leading indicator of who will win the MVP award: "In every season of the Next Gen Stats era (since 2016), the leader in total pass expected points added (EPA) has won the MVP award: Matt Ryan (+184.0) won in 2016, Tom Brady (+132.9) won in 2017, Patrick Mahomes (+195.1) won in 2018 and Lamar Jackson (+132.9) won last season. Entering Week 15, the 2020 MVP race had seemingly narrowed down to two candidates -- and the field mirrors the leaders in total pass EPA. Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes (+163.7 pass EPA) and Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers (+151.3 pass EPA) are comfortably ahead of everyone else -- the next-closest is Bills quarterback Josh Allen (+89.0)." ... Josh Allen Pass EPA: +89.0 (3rd) Rushing 1st Downs: 35 (4th for QB's) "Allen is in the midst of a true breakout season, leading the Bills to the brink of their first AFC East title since 1995. He's currently third in the NFL with +89.0 pass EPA after having -70.3 (third-worst) and -33.4 (12th-worst) in 2018 and 2019, respectively. It's clear that Allen has made big strides playing the QB position in each of his three seasons. He's declined his deep-pass percentage (10.0% in 2020) and air yards per attempt (8.4 in 2020) in both seasons since his rookie year. He's also improved his downfield passing accuracy and production in each season. His completion percentage over expectation on passes of 10-plus yards in the air has risen from -10.5% to -2.9% to +7.6% from 2018 to 2020, while his yards per attempt has gone from 8.2 to 9.4 to 11.1 in that span. Allen has also improved his touch when on the move. His +4.3 completion percentage over expectation when passing on the run (moving 8-plus MPH) is sixth-best in the NFL; in 2018 and 2019, Allen ranked second-worst. Allen's improved passing on the run allows him to take full advantage of his athleticism and couples well with his rushing ability. On the year, Allen has 350 rushing yards (eighth among QBs), six rushing TDs (tied for third) and 35 rushing first downs (fourth). Allen's athleticism, paired with his vastly improved feel for the QB position and accuracy throwing the ball, have the Bills looking like a legitimate Super Bowl contender." ~ Matt Durisko/Associated Press https://www.nfl.com/photos/next-gen-stats-compelling-figures-for-top-mvp-candidates#b2db149e-9b54-4d32-bd22-5a853c5ef2aa

Their entire history of QB's is just sad. Their best QB was a guy who lost more games than he won and threw more INT's than TD's (although that was a different era).

So you're saying that the whole "bulletin board material" type of motivation stops happening for players and teams when they are good? Wasn't Thurman famous for taking slights at every little thing and turning it into motivation? It's not about needing it. But it's real. It was real last week when Juju danced on the Bills logo. You also see it ALL the time when players play their former team.

I think breaking the playoff drought was much bigger and more emotional for a lot of people. And the way it happened was just incredible. By this point we expect the team to be good. Most of us expected the Bills to win the division this year. For me to get emotional it would have to take a Superbowl win. Even then, I don't know if that's a natural response for me. But I'll be super excited!