Richard Noggin

With respect to the bolded (Baltimore), I think that's a really interesting test for week one. Their aggressive, physical defense has generally given the Bills fits over the years. If there is one overarching criticism of Bills pass catchers during this era, it's their inability to beat press-man and to reel-in contested catches. Haven't disruptive, downhill defenses that dare the Bills to beat them had more success against Allen and Co.? Especially in the playoffs? I'm REALLY fascinated by the Baltimore week one litmus test. Smart money says Bills get rolled, in my opinion. All kinds of weaknesses exposed, again. All our worst fears and suspicions realized in the first game, in prime time, nationwide. Like you, I do actually see a potential future in which Coleman, Palmer, and Shakir and Kincaid are a formidable unit, but should we really expect them to win against Baltimore's defense? Also, will Brady and Co. give their players enough little schematic advantages to get that production flywheel spinning?

We look backwards at what HAS happened already, analyzing, ideally, the quantitative results and trends and patterns, and then we use all that (hopefully) to form (or often solely to justify) our qualitative/subjective assessments and comparisons and rankings and such. The thing many sports fans (and moreover, many people in general) get wrong, is that old legal and financial services TV commercial disclaimer: "Past performance does not guarantee future results." Thus, oftentimes, we erroneously qualify/judge/label some players as injury prone, while others are simply unlucky. As though the physics of football and all its millions of compounding variables are somehow controllable and/or evidence of something concretely knowable and pre-determined, some fixed quality or flaw in particular players that is more influential than the sheer magnitude of math involved.

I should turn myself in, huh?

I hadn't considered that Samuel has any trade value, but if the Bills are just looking to offload an oft-injured WR and his cap and open up space on the 53 for more versatile (in terms of STs and true boundary traits), available prospect in Shavers, maybe a mid-to-late round pick and a late round swap gets it done? Shavers has done nothing but flash in his limited opportunities over the years. He has progressed. He has boundary traits we lack outside Coleman and Palmer. Moore I'm completely MEH about. Seems like a guy who could produce from time to time with Josh Allen. So maybe as a 4 or 5 he makes it, but don't 4s and 5s generally need to offer some teams ability? I guess not always.

That deserves a "Nice."

Am I the last person in the expansive sphere of NFL fans to learn that Philly is $30 million UNDER the cap? Is their entire defense on rookie deals? Because that entire offense is STACKED with $igned $tuds. (Admittedly, I have not yet done the rigorous online research of seeing an itemized accounting of how such a sham is in fact possible. I'm still in shock.)

Bills defensive profile be like

This is what we hope will happen, for sure. One reason to have at least some hope is that the Bills under McDermott have been able to really develop a number of less-than-blue-chip defensive players, at the 2nd and 3rd levels, especially. Milano, Bernard, Johnson, Benford, Hyde, and Poyer are the best examples of this. Not a blue-chipper amongst them. But they all grew tremendously to become difference makers.

Love the bolded, as it defines McD's tenure to date. The problem with what many of us want the Bills to do more of, as you detail above, relies on a different mindset/philosophy of play-calling all together. It's a more high-risk, high-reward style of diverse/matchup/play-to-play poker play-calling where the DC is competing against the opposing OC (whoever calls plays) as much or more than he's running a "scheme" or "system" that only really works with high end talent who know "the system" with total fluency. I'm recalling what it looks like when Sean McDermott calls out-of-character, yet predictable, late game cover-zero blitzes that lost us two games in the same season (2023, right?). He's not always great at predicting what opponents want to do in general and what they will do play-to-play imho. Hopefully Babich shows growth in this particular skill. The bend part is more talent-based imho. The Bills cover guys, outside of Benford, and Johnson a little, don't fare well being more aggressive early in the route. Our LBs (minus Milano and to a lesser extent Bernard) and safeties do NOT always get to their spots or read the route concepts/progressions early enough to close those drafty windows. Which means there are reliable gimmes for the taking if they stick to a quick hitting/timing attack and continue to mix in the run with some success. That Carolina defense, on the contrary, didn't intentionally bend much, primarily because they were stacked with difference makers. Until that season when they repeatedly left their rookie corners on cover-3 islands to get fairly abused. The "scheme" didn't really adjust to the talent, or I guess the talent was not good enough to continually run that scheme.

At 9 PM we switched over to the free live feed of the final night of King Gizzard's Colorado music festival where they played 3 hours of music for 3 consecutive nights. Much more fun.

Somehow we're all still being subjected to a delayed ruling on Rice, despite the obvious calling for him to miss considerable time. The league should be smarter than allowing a derelict Rice to be available for KC's most difficult early slate of games, otherwise there's no tangible penalty for stretching the rules/cheating/being a criminal. No one else would be granted such lenience and patience.

Has no one shared Sal's takeaways from his WGR afternoon appearance? It should start a little after the 7-minute mark, where Sal describes a special teams/gunner drill in which Tyrell Shavers beats a double-team and the Bills go crazy on the sideline. That's preseason porn for the Shavers truthers (he's my dark horse crush for sure).

I jumped ahead a couple pages; has someone already handled this one?

We all know Rice has already received absurdly beneficial procedural wins starting from the moment he exited that car last, from the passenger side, and successfully fled the scene. At no point has law enforcement treated him with the punitive urgency a working class or even poor citizen would have received. And as far as the NFL's separate investigative process is specifically concerned, I'm not hearing any noise about a history of prior behavioral red flags. I think at least one incident has come up since he joined the league and before the big public endangerment car crash thing. Total broom job upcoming: 4 games at most, but possibly appealed down to the 3, and that appeals process means Rice begins his suspension a week later, after week 5, and thus returns week 9 against Buffalo LMAO.

You are forgiven. This one time.

I can see an argument for the Dolphins being effective on offense, but it's difficult to justify belief in the defense beyond them having some pass rush pedigree (with injury histories), some physicality otherwise in front-7, but not any notable playmakers outside of Fitzpatrick in back-7. Their RB room is really talented and they've got some dynamic dudes at WR too. They're going to run the ball well. Achane is awesome, and the next two youngsters behind him have some traits. Always comes down to Tua and his WRs staying on time and doing their quick, decisive thing. So how's that o-line hold up just long enough to make it all work? Defensively, they might cause some disruption from time to time, with talent and aggression, but they're gonna get GOT a lot at the second and third levels. They could have some REALLY bad defensive matchups this season. My guess against the Bills is they come out playing aggressive, tough guy ball and attack the LOS and backfield. Force the Bills to beat em down the field. Try to TOUCH Josh Allen above all else.

Didn't McDermott bench and then maybe make Taron Johnson a gameday inactive at some point early in his career? Included public comments of a similar nature IIRC Reminds me of Terrel Bernard entering his 2nd season. Hurt for majority of preseason, then gets healthy just in time and is named starter, never looks back (except for continued smattering of injuries). Hopefully Bishop gets back out there and doesn't let go of his opportunity.

Can't have the convo without recognizing those numbers, of course. Then again, rookie QBs have been doing some things, statistically, lately. For those successful rookie signal callers, year two is where we might be on the lookout for regressions to the mean, or at least for DCs to catch up enough to better attack/illuminate underdeveloped elements of each QB/offense overall. Caleb Williams really should take a substantial step forward in 2025, given the serious, aggressive organizational overhaul around him (landing hottest offensive HC candidate and a legit, aggressive DC, while bringing in a new, improved vet interior o-line and other vital pieces up front and at skill positions--top 4 WRs are legit plus top 2 TEs are very dangerous, plus talented RB room, etc.). Williams is well-positioned for a major progression, one would easily assume if his jersey didn't say Chicago. **but then we look at Daniels' and Stroud's WR pipelines, wherein Daniels has older-but-dynamic starters and prospects going 3 deep for each WR spot, and average RB and TE rooms, while Stroud has WR DUDES and prospects but maybe cooked RBs and meh TEs (Lachay could eventually be something). And what about Bo Nix in Denver? McCarthy in Minny? Sanders in Cle? Ward in Tenn? Maybe Drake Maye in NE is gonna explode, if his offensive line lets him. PLUS there's Pennix Jr in Atlanta who has a little squad around him. Any room for Bryce Young in Carolina to continue to improve? The potential 2025 league impact of QBs on rookie contracts is more broadly intriguing than ever imho. How will those intriguing teams fare against the franchise QB tier of competition (KC, BAL, DET, BUF, PHI, CIN, GB, DAL, maybe LAR and/or LAC)? And which middling orgs (AZ, LV, CLE, SF, MN, NYG, NYJ, MIA, NO, SEA, TB, JAX) step up or stumble back?

Really happy with the positive, sleepy tone of this reality programming. Nothing so far that's distracting, embarrassing, controversial, etc. I assume that the reward for being on Hard Knocks is no international game? Like what the org could have demanded in return? So far, I'll take it.

Anybody like Hamler over Moore for the 53? Bit of a longshot, and probably doesn't work because Elijah if waived is "Moore" likely to get scooped than KJ, but Hamler just seems like a guy who can contribute. If he ends up on the PS, then that's probably ideal.

It's not the b2b sneak calls for me; it's putting your linemen at an incremental disadvantage due to ZERO adjustment or alteration. EVERY human on the football-watching planet knew what play was coming and where it was going. Sure seems like the D has the snap-count/cadence dialed in, too. You have to adjust to realities on the field. The Chiefs were cheating to the Bills situational tendencies in ways Brady and Allen didn't effectively exploit when it mattered most.

I think I agree with this 100%. Maybe Shaq Thompson and/or Chase Lundt don't make the initial roster in favor of some other late riser(s)? Who knows. But in general, couldn't agree more. Especially appreciate your recognition that both Lewis and Hancock, respectively, represent the Bills current and future invaluable NCB/S position flex. Taron Johnson gets banged up. Our safeties get banged up. Gotta have these guys in the wings. We should anticipate that the Bills will use at least 1 or 2 PUP or IR (designated to return) exceptions in order to hang onto the 54th/55th guys, who would actually represent the 56th/57th ranked players when you account for the PED bros. Is it crazy to suggest Hairston red-shirts the first 4ish games on PUP or IR? Curtis Samuel seems like another candidate for roster manipulation. *this all assumes injuries don't make decisions for us, like they apparently did with Spector.