Richard Noggin

These definitions make a lot of sense; thank you for reiterating. In the case of Von Miller, they almost guarantee the LTBEs will be reached, which helps us understand why the player wouldn't be "offended" by them (and why they will automatically count against the cap)...while also hinting at the NOT unrealistic nature of Miller also potentially reaching at least SOME of those NLTBEs, given the incredibly low floor for where they could be set.

As long as he figures out how to pick up his effing head when arriving 2nd to the ball carrier moving forward, I'm happy with this. Lotta unfortunate and compromising collisions can be avoided if he stops lowering his helmet like a dummy. Mostly he'll do his own guys (and himself) a favor.

Actually funny at the end there, while also raising a question I don't have the answer to: wtf DOES constitute "likely to be reached" vs "unlikely to be reached" incentives for ANYONE, really, but especially for Von Miller coming off consecutive injury-hampered seasons??

Only way I know how to process all of today's action is to turn it into mock drafts. Really like this one. PFN already added our new 5th round pick, and definitely upgraded WR Worthy's big board value (right behind Mitchell actually). We get our X receiver, a new starting DT, starting S, really promising #2 RB in the pipeline, and some EDGE depth.

Wasn't he just a 1-year deal?

Not getting re-signed after a contract expires in the NFL is NOT the same as getting fired.

You don't really know WHAT kind of money they're actually giving him, though. We have the absolute CEILING of the deal. That can be quite misleading. Come on, man

If there was EVER a position where McBeane deserves the benefit of the doubt, it MUST be safety don't ya think??

He punishes teammates who've already made the tackle for getting there sooner.

But we don't know the deal yet. We know the ceiling of the deal, which we all should know is not exactly "the deal."

Looks like they're ignoring the "likely to earn" incentives? Those are around $5.6M if I recall? And they actually factor into this year's cap hit when designated that way...iirc If we're only $1M in the hole, that means we're actually $11M in the hole until June 1, when Tre's savings actually apply. Will be nice to regain that $10M for signing our draft class and for injury insurance and/or summer spending (think Floyd last season), but we don't actually realize those Tre White savings until a later date.

At some point in the 2nd half of round one or the first half of round two, there will be a historic-ish run on WRs that results in 10+ guys drafted in the first 40-50 picks. Teams would be silly NOT to get in on the WR depth during the first two days of the draft. (You have to admit, the receivers overall looked even better than advertised at the combine. Such a position of strength, despite coming in so many different sizes and shapes.)

100% understand this contingency, that a specific org might run out of "draftable" grades before the draft ends. Probably happens a lot. Love the suspicion that this happened last year so Beane immediately shifted to trading for late picks next year (which is now THIS year), possibly knowing that COVID eligibility extensions would mean the 2024 6th and 7th round board would contain better talent/draftable grades. More players were allowed to go back to school, so they did. And now they're declared for the draft. Was a predictable development. (Nice to have 10 picks...but wish they were a little better.)

Your system has major holes. As do all WR scouting metrics/systems. Your 2024 rankings have both Texas WRs REALLY low. I get that you're not exactly predicting picks, but evaluating the prospects...yet having Mitchell and Worthy both outside the top-10 WR prospects seems wild to me. I'm not a huge Worthy guy, but I do think Mitchell is potentially a sleeping giant as a future #1 WR in the NFL. And Worthy is probably better than I'm willing to admit, and definitely better in terms of draft value.

Appreciate you acknowledging the silliness of this value at almost every pick here...would be an amazing draft haul of course, but just no way...

I had a very similar first two rounds, and I'd argue, a better first two days. Like this entire draft tbh. Nubin at 129, McCaffrey at 198, and Pearsall at 206 are all hilarious. Good fun.

Don't you get the sense that Thomas is LONG gone by 28, and potentially Coleman and Mitchell are also gone? Franklin has a chance to make it, and I'd be super happy with him. Worthy I don't like as much, but obviously NFL evaluators see him at least as a consideration. There is also McConkey and Roman Wilson as non-prototype #1s, plus Baker and Polk and others who will likely go early day two. I want the Bills to come away with one of the obvious X-receiver guys, which most likely has to happen at 28.

Pulled this shot of WR prospect rankings from the Cosell segment that...differs in some ways from popular fan sentiment: Worthy and Baker ahead of Mitchell and Franklin? That's interesting, for sure.

Value was only screaming RB or LB, if I recall. Cook is halfway through his rookie deal already, and isn't the best blocker or short yardage, power back. Love Cook's talent, but there is a need for a complimentary guy who has some traits. And, in the event of injury, another guy who can attack defenses. (That being said, don't love Estime's feet tbh.) The draft is for adding cost-controlled talent on a longer timeline than next season. The Bills currently have NOTHING in the RB pipeline behind Cook. (And yet, I understand how unpopular a 3rd rd RB pick would be.)

2nd automated mock I ran resulted in 4 safeties again. Funny stuff.

🚨🚨Pump the brakes lol on Pro Football Network's simulator🚨🚨 Did a little experiment where I did NOT choose a team and just let the entire draft run, and here are Buffalo's picks (they did not trade at all). I don't think the logic of this model is buttoned up, exactly. 2 CBs and 4 Ss, and 2 RBs. Bills gonna play a 3-2-6 or even 2-2-7 defense in 2024, apparently. Kool-Aid McKinstry - CB Cole Bishop - S Blake Corum - RB DeWayne Carter - DT Demani Richardson - S Ray Davis - RB Trey Taylor - S Jay Stanley - S Jarvis Brownlee - CB Khari Coleman - LB

Really like the prospects chosen in this one, with one trade back out of the 2nd rd. Those b2b LSU DTs are pretty cool.

Who did KC get with our 1st rd pick?

Trading back out of the first is like a cheat code with PFN's simulator. Stupid value all over the place in this mock. Sign me up.

Wow would many of you HATE this one. Those first two picks are DUDES, though.