Richard Noggin

teetotaler

Most recent, no movement mock. Love the defensive haul, plus I think every pick is rosterable in 2025.

I definitely don't have a 42 page running google doc of mock draft screenshots and brief blurbs. No way would I do that.

Bottom line is that if the 2025 draft is deep in DL talent, and a team like the Bills has obvious needs at DT/NT, then that team can be judged by how well it fills NT in the first two days of the draft, especially. Rounds 4-7 are still super valid, of course...

Thoughts on this effort to concentrate picks into the top-100 range (by trading down from the top and up from the bottom)? Really fills out the defensive depth chart in 2025 and beyond. Backup QB candidate who would be a lot cheaper and probably less gun shy than Mitch. Boundary WR with production and traits. The RB Johnson falling to the mid-3rd was unexpected, and might facilitate moving on from Cook sooner rather than later.

Started this draft just now, and like always I "try" to pause it around picks 7-10 just to peek (I set it to "Fast" speed which can really zoom). Carter AND Hunter available at 8?! McCord went #3?! (Almost makes sense as a last-ditch effort to salvage their jobs in NYG, being a higher floor, lower ceiling QB prospect.)) Does one attempt to trade up for Hunter, because he's potentially transcendent as a high-end CB AND WR prospect? (Of course one trades up for Hunter, especially when it only costs #62 this year and 1st rounder next year?! That's bonkers.) Don't LOVE Nolan as only DT drafted, but hey...

Smoking, snorting, or shooting? (Rich Hill chart suggests pick 32 or 33 is equivalent value.)

This video is amazing, completely independent of Bills fandom. Hoecht gets deep into the weeds of...basically, EVERYTHING that goes into NFL game-planning, preparation, communication, checks, games, tendencies, technique, etc. He even speaks directly to the vast interrelated complexities and variables that I'm so enamored with in the sport generally. Not sure I've ever seen Erik an Ant so ecstatic, like they're listening to a new football nerd soulmate. Such a good show. (There's also the Bills-specific angles explored throughout, comparing Hoecht to Zo and hoping for a return to that early McDermott defensive creativity in which Zo thrived. Look at his production in that playoff loss at JAX (a lot of it playing essentially aggressive, A-gap MLB): 1 sack, 10 tackles, 2 for loss, QB hit; they also compare him potentially to what Smoot did last year. Really awesome stuff.) *Hoecht mentions Van Ginkel in Minnesota as a player/role he sees as similar or something to study/aspire to.

I don't necessarily HATE the unorthodox tripling up of DTs, but a) there is no way Collins is there at 109 and b) Grant, Collins, and West create triplicated role (NT/1T) redundancy that will be difficult to roster, much less get on the field. It's bad asset allocation. The two LBs are similarly redundant, given the Bills have their MLB locked up, and have young WLB depth already in the pipeline behind Milano's final run. Doubling up at CB, for example, would be much more valuable, imho. Not in love with Noel as a fit for a team who has a long term slot already, plus a flexible backup (Samuel) under contract for 2 more seasons, and Kincaid and Coleman who can motion into slot. The 4th DT is just a PS throwaway at best. Plus, what if Cook actually plays out his rookie deal? How does Sanders make the 53 or sneak onto the PS? I see regrettably wasted picks due to poor roster/scheme fits and redundancy. Grant, Collins, and West are all great targets for the Bills, individually. But together, would deserve serious criticism.

What team would move back THAT FAR from that high? You're talking about moving back like 50-ish picks. That's the issue with these mock draft sites where we can hold onto our best picks and still trade up aggressively. There arguably isn't enough value in the Bills trade offer you've proposed to get them into the top-25 picks! (According to Rich Hill updated chart.) And the Bills don't have a 3rd this year, so those are devalued heavily. Even adding in next year's 1st, if you're committed to trying to hold onto 30, only gets the Bills maybe into top-15. Plus you're still needing a team to sacrifice so much in the short term. ☝️(I see this was just broken down in more concrete detail 10 minutes before my own more summarized reply.)

Exactly -- no other sport even comes close to the volume and complexities of variables that factor into every player's journey, every roster's development, and every team's performance. Jordan Poyer was a good Zach Baun comp back in his early tenure with the Bills (and he continued to grow and sustain his newfound production for a handful of seasons). Those two players probably, statistically, would NOT have experienced similar breakouts if they'd signed with different teams. But the fit and the luck and the work aligned for them and their new teams. SO MANY talented, hard-working players never see their stars align with such clean fits, such good fortune, and such results. So many never really get the opportunity through no direct faults of their own. Big part of why many of us LOVE the offseason: such a complicated, convoluted puzzle.

Some sure seem to get it. And others are more likely to reject that kind of critical awareness / capitulation. So many variables we're not privy to in most cases.

I wish we could claim that no Bills fans were excited at the (ridiculous) prospect that Diggs could come back. BUT, the last 5-10 pages of this thread exist, so...

I just did lol. Little trade back from 56 to add another top 100 pick (got Burke and Sawyer for my trouble) while still nabbing the 2nd monster inside. Sorry for tossing a mock draft in here like a stink bomb.

Is this a Bills MB "majority opinion" or are you suggesting it's more broadly held? If it's Bills-specific, well then I would argue that Bills fans still skew a little older and more conservative than the league average. Important to note: I don't even fully disagree with the preference for the older numbering schema. It was helpful.

Out of 1 or out of 10? That is the question.

Got some geezers yelling at clouds in this one... Tom Brady also doesn't like all the randomness with jersey numbers now. Do you really want to be aligned with Tom Brady?

Come on now what? Honestly...what am I doing wrong?

Thread like this can reveal a lot about each poster who contributes. OP without nuance will invite the binary brigade to crusade for their integer, especially when declaring triumphantly that Beane's offseason is already a 1 out of 1. Team 0 can't abide.

Despite him initially being the #1 FA WR on some talking head/network big board(s), there is also little to no chatter (that I've heard) about Amari Cooper on that/those show(s). I've only heard one contributor's conjecture that Cooper might be happy to sit back and eventually choose his own destination. Looks to me like he can still haul in contested, back shoulder, and basket catches at a high level, but those will be tight window throws nearly every time. His diminishing ability to separate means defenses don't need to bracket or roll safeties to his side. And his production will be reliant on QB and WR executing with body language and ball placement and then adjusting to that placement, with narrow margin for error. That kind of confidence, communication, and execution takes reps and time on task to develop. Coming in during or after camp will potentially dampen Cooper's chances of success. Although he could succeed quickly with someone like Aaron Rodgers, who throws some of the best sideline back shoulders and fades I've ever seen.

Agree with you and others noticing something in the Forrest acquisition that reminds of Poyer, but mostly in that I'd honestly never heard of either guy before they were signed, and yet there is apparent upside/value. This time is different because we can see the potential proactively. Forrest's athletic profile is actually much more impressive than Poyer's, and he's had more on-field success than Poyer had at the time he was signed. Will be fun to track his progress in camp and preseason.

Unofficial 9.0 RAS, from what I'm seeing. No LB with a 4.55 40 yd is going to score that low (you cited 5?) unless they're WAY undersized and super stiff. Dolac IS small in NFL terms for a LB, but he's also got S athleticism. What are you basing your assumption on? Scouts who were skeptical? Lazy national consensus that led to him not getting a combine invite? (I see I'm predictably late to the party here. Point still stands, but apologies for redundancy.)

Some people just whine and complain and fixate while pretending it's the fault of someone else's failings. Frustrating to encounter online and in real life. I'll bet most of us have attended a sporting event seated in front of (or within direct earshot of) a loud, angry whiner. Like every unsuccessful play is so obviously the wrong call, and the fan doesn't realize or care that the people around them might prefer to enjoy the ups and downs of a live competition. Just like here, during the offseason, many of us enjoy discussing and analyzing and debating and whatnot, but we know that we don't always know how things will turn out. And either way, we know that polemic crusades are a nuisance. It's probably right that Beane, early in the draft a couple times, has seemingly panicked or at least gotten impatient in response to unexpected runs on positions or specific players. We all know the early misses and late hits. But other GMs, even the best, also hit and miss with similar frequency. Hopefully Beane can take the longer view and let the draft come to him a little more organically.

What did I ever do to you?

Josh Sweat was the more appealing and therefore more expensive player, no doubt. His deal was more reasonable than I anticipated, for sure, which does leave more room for second guessing. But were the Bills in position to pay Sweat AND Rousseau? So replacing Rousseau with Sweat, is that what you preferred?