Richard Noggin

One more for tonight, again trading out of the 1st round. Trading every single pick, in fact, and ending up with roughly 5 top-100 prospects when initially we only had a look at 2. I don't know about the Miami OG, but otherwise these are guys who can play football at the next level. Mitchell at 36 is a dream. And I'll bet Beane really likes Kneeland, even if DE isn't a huge need in his eyes (probably isn't with 3 guys making money already).

Skipped over Coleman, Mitchell, Worthy, plus Newton and DeJean at 28 in favor of a trade-back for two 2nd rounders. Just to see. And to be honest, I really like the results. 12 dudes won't make the 53, but this draft beefs up several pipelines (WR, RB, DT, S) and adds solid depth at IOL, CB, and DE.

So then we did NOT learn a lot from the Sammy Watkins episode? I'm confused.

Reasonable.

This 3-post progression lays out the fundamental distinction between assessing offseason roster/depth chart needs versus bigger picture impact players. Those who want the Bills to draft an alpha WR NOW, no matter what, aren't hoping to replace Davis' role from last year to plug that new "hole." They're hoping to IMPROVE upon what the Bills had last year. They're hoping to take advantage of a legendary WR draft class, where even at 28, need most likely meets value at an impact position. JA17 has never had a top WR with elite traits. He's had Foster, Jones, Brown, Beasley, Diggs, Sanders, and Davis. Gotta add a blue chip boundary beast to take another step forward. Those who don't see an urgent need to upgrade at WR are satisfied with what we've seen from the Bills offense when it matters most. But how have the WRs performed in our playoff losses, minus 13 seconds? How has Diggs performed, specifically?

Armstead feels like an overpay to me, whereas with Davis I really wonder if he could thrive in a simplified scheme. Those explosive, downfield posts and nines and digs and crossers against man pressure packages were memorable. That Tampa game last year stands out as an intriguing anomaly, with Gabe being featured underneath with quick-hitting, pre-defined routes. For whatever reasons, however, Davis and Allen continuously struggled to get on the same page in their option-heavy E-P passing schemes. And Gabe also dealt with some serious yips catching the ball. Curious to see how it goes for him with Jax.

I know he's not generating a lot of mainstream buzz, due to poor 40 and limited college production...but I have a feeling Coleman could be a dude. That combine gauntlet performance, recording the top speed, might be a super interesting example of elite play speed versus bad testing speed. Many online are pointing to Puka Nacua's top gauntlet speed last year as a compelling parallel. (Coleman was a little faster ftr, and he's taller. He also ran 2nd fastest go route during drills -- but admittedly this metric is less controlled.) I've often argued against Coleman's NFL projection based on generally poor translations of his recent college contested catch rate peers like Arcega-Whiteside, Quentin Johnson, N'Keal Harry, Mims, Marshall, etc. The question then becomes: was the prospect his QB's go-to guy and just gifted at high-pointing the ball and hauling it in under duress, or was he bad at creating separation? My thinking is shifting to either Coleman or Mitchell at 28 IF they're even still available. Beane strikes me as a Worthy guy at 28 IF he's even available. That presents us with three legitimate prospects (of which at least one should still be available) to consider at 28 without sacrificing capital to move up. Does anyone think all 7 will be gone by then? Edit: turns out Coleman also returned punts?

Having fun exploring what happens if the Bills DON'T obsess about WR early and instead go BPA. This draft would upset so many Bills fans, but wow what an immediate transformation of the d-line and secondary:

Time is money, though. Trade partner has to pay for a lost year of value/potential/development. Why would a GM trade out of a current pick just to wait a year to make that same-ish pick? (I can conceive of scenarios where a given round's perceived value has been exhausted and a team might prefer to preserve the original pick's "round value" by trading instead of reaching. Especially in the first two days of the draft. The long term value of those picks is arguably more important than any immediate, inflated need.)

After the first two picks (both of which should be HUGE contributors early on), I see some roster redundancy that would rely on injury designations, practice squad sneaks, or outright cuts at a couple positions (THREE RBs?! I like Jordan and Guerendo as back half of the draft prospects, but when you first spend #97 on Shipley, at least one of these other two just won't be on the roster). Drafting another punter is also...surprising. One of the two EDGEs is unlikely to make it. The WGR guys will enjoy a new iteration of punt-a-palooza with THREE on the roster coming out of the draft. A big part of my pushback is of course the WR picks. Tez Walker has insane athletic traits, but lacks refined skills. Was a mess at the Senior Bowl. Jackson isn't as explosive as you'd like for a little guy, and will have a very difficult path to the 53. I don't hate competition, and a bunch of these disposable picks are late on day three, but I ultimately question the value.

Armchair a-hole analysis: he is saying a lot without actually saying much of anything. He's being characteristically honest about the uncertainty of the NFL and how people unfairly perceive him from the outside. ALSO, his voice DOES sound a little more pinchy and amped than I remember; he's still more articulate than most, but does come off a little nervy and rambly. People trying to turn any of this (including his vague tweet) into something tangible is a stretch.

To be completely honest, I almost automatically skip past these front-loaded, trade-heavy lists of assets exchanged and picks. No offense to you. The format is less accessible than comparable screenshots. It's a shame because how evidently you enjoy exploring a multitude of draft possibilities, often bucking needs-based fan consensus. But then I have to ask: which effing simulator has Latu available at 28?! That's...interesting. Safety is nicely restocked here, and the EDGE pipeline is filled. Solid #2 RB added. LG now a competition between Edwards and strong prospect in McCormick. But the two biggest needs, WR and DT, according to most fans, are not prioritized. Tez Walker looked LOST at the Senior Bowl (despite his impressive traits), and Eboigbe is more of a 3-4 DE prospect than a 4-3 DT. Not a great fit. Smith could represent value, I guess, given his surprise med e v a l at the combine. Here's a similarly UNsatisfying draft haul that could be beneficial in the longer term. Most of these guys should be NFL contributors sooner rather than later. I'm guessing most posters will be mad about WR and DT.

The Venn Diagram of fans immediately upset by Diggs' cryptic social media post AND people who like to claim "facts don't care about your feelings" is closer to a circle than it should be.

Pickett strikes me as a STRONG backup QB option, for a SUPER affordable cap hit. Why is that difficult to acknowledge? Is it the draft capital lost? I can understand attacking that aspect of the deal, but the result for Philly is unquestionably a high-end backup who barely registers against the cap, at the most important position in the sport.

I never trust a Brit's culinary judgements.

Waiting for the doomers to weigh in on this one (hence my shocked face reaction)

We've seen this go the wrong way in recent years, no doubt. Lost or moved on from a bunch of drafted guys who maybe belong in the NFL. THIS YEAR, however, there is still plenty of room to roster a rookie WR, a RB, an interior OL or even an OT, and at least 1 DT, a DE, a CB, and at least 1 S. Heck even a TE and a LB could make it at the backend. Which is just about every position.

As to the bolded, the defense definitely hasn't mattered (in a good way) so far in the playoffs. Could have had just about any JAGs in there, and in the past couple playoff losses, we have. Agree wholeheartedly with the fundamental premise of your post: with a well-supported QB17, the offense can and should determine game outcomes. Defense should be an afterthought, ideally there to capitalize on leads and keep teams from scoring easily (they should be the unit tasked with playing McDermott's beloved COMPLEMENTARY football).

I remember him flashing for the Jets that season. Had a little juice.

Your prioritization angle here is kinda bizarre tbh. Signing Ty Johnson doesn't mean the Bills aren't also thinking about every single other position. The money he is hopefully making doesn't really register wrt the cap. So what's the problem with filling in needs with value FAs so they aren't entering the draft with multiple obvious roster holes? Or to put it another way: are there specific FAs you would prefer? Which guys could the Bills have afforded that would have helped the Bills "keep up/pass the Chiefs, Ravens, etc." and not required even more aggressive cap management moves? Important to remember that winning free agency never results in winning games. Winning the draft, however, might. Free agency is not where the best teams allocate their cap resources. Re-signing their own guys is. Maybe there is ONE piece out there that can nudge a good team over the top, but if that was us, then who?

That was a theme in the LB room. Really maximized each player's contribution, until injuries yanked AJ Klein out of his RV and onto an NFL field. Bodes well that the LB coach, who also had success as a safeties coach, is now running the defense. Player development and maximization is the name of the game.

Seems like some posters (^^^) get too wrapped up in one dominant "take" on the team's current direction, and aren't willing to relent or relax or see the humor in such unknowable certainty, and that really grates on the rest of the board. I have thoughts and opinions and projections as well, but I understand my own limitations, and as such try to use this site as a place to stay informed and in tune with fellow fans who aren't obsessed with their own opinions and projections. This SHOULD be fun. I guess not everyone agrees with that.

Honestly believe this is one of the best no-trade mocks I've seen to date. Multiple serious prospects at WR, DT, and EDGE (hopefully assuring at least one strong rookie contributor), with nice additions at S, RB, OG, CB, and TE. It isn't what many Bills fans will be happy with, but I believe this haul sets the Bills up in the short and long term.

Pretty similar to what I just landed from same site. Same two WRs at slightly different spots, and some other parallels throughout. Lots of value and lots of potential key pieces moving forward.

They have until Wednesday, in that case, to make it all fit?