freddyjj

Good piece from Buffalo Rumblings on the likelihood including math involved. https://www.buffalorumblings.com/2019/1/4/18168852/could-josh-allen-throw-a-football-out-of-new-era-field-lets-find-out Author mistakenly thought Josh was in scoreboard end not the tunnel end last SUN. i think he has to try tunnel end in the spaces between the suites and admin bldg - less wind issues

Maybe Nanker is retired aka Everyday is Saturday?

The Glenn trade was made after the Richie and Eric Wood news iirc

So I will agree to disagree. Heck I forgot that the NFC West has the scary QB-less SF 49ers in it - and that's where you got 2 of your wins! As for common opponents, Allen beat Minnesota in their house prior to his injury and Detroit at Home so 2-1. Chicago beat Peterman led Bills. AZ went 1-3 against same opponents with Rosen going 1-2. Allen went 5-5 in games he started and finished. Rosen was 3-10. Keep on with your excuses for Rosen though and please be happy when he passes for 56% completion and 4 wins next year.

OK, so if you haven't noticed, I am an analytical fan. Some good posts here today on Josh Allen and Zay Jone metrics. Got me thinking, what does it take to make the playoffs in the AFC these days. Some food for thought: The average total points scored for the season by all 2018 qualifying AFC Playoff teams was 442 total points or 28 ppg. For perspective, the Bills scored 269 total points or 17 ppg in 2018. In 2017 the Bills scored 302 total points or 19 ppg when they snuck in the back door of the playoffs. The average points surrendered for the season by all 2018 qualifying AFC Playoff teams was 337 total points or 21 ppg. or perspective, the Bills surrendered 374 total points or 23.5 ppg in 2018. In 2017 the Bills surrendered 359 total points or 22.5 ppg when they snuck in the back door of the playoffs. Weird that they made playoffs with a negative scoring differential. While I can see Bills dropping points against in 2019 to the 21 ppg level with improved D in Yr 3 of system and better time of possession on offense, I am not sure Bills can increase scoring by 11 ppg in 2019. The one playoff team that they could emulate would be Baltimore who scored at a 24.5 ppg rate. Can the Bills score 400 points or 25 points per game in 2019? They did in 2016 with Tyrod and Rex! In 2019 if Josh Allen throws 24 TDs and runs for 12 more TDs we are at 252 points. Throw in 10 Rushing TDs for RBs and we are at 322 points. 26 FGs (his Average) by House Money and we are at 400 Points scored even. Anything else (ST returns or defensive Scores) is Gravy! Bills have to go 6-2 at home and 4-4 on road top have a shot at wild card in 2019. They were 6-2 at home in 2017 but have not gone 4-4 on the road since 2014 when they beat Pats in Foxboro in last game of season when Brady was pulled after halftime. This is the hard part. Good teams can win on the road. So to summarize in 2019 the Bills will make playoffs if they: Go 10-6 on season. The AFC North will be tough but PItt and CIN are in chaos. The NFC East might be the softest division in NFC next year. And we draw TN and DEN as our extra AFC Games and both are winnable. Score 400 or more points or > 25 PPG. Offense improving by 8ppg Give up 335 points or less <21 PPG. Defense improving by 2.5 ppg What are your takes on this? Do you see offense improving by 8ppg or defense improving by 2.5 ppg?

Here's his past stub year Game Game Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Rush Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Rush Yds TD Lng Y/A Y/G A/G 2018 22 BUF QB 17 12 11 89 631 8 45 7.1 52.6 7.4 If one just straight lines these stats we get 12 TDS in 16 games. And 800 Yds. I believe he could accomplish both. Easily

Josh Rosen 163 YPG, .85 TD PG, 1.08 INT PG. No Rushing TDs. Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV 2018 21 ARI QB 3 14 13 3-10-0 217 393 55.2 2278 11 2.8 14 3.6 75 5.8 4.8 10.5 162.7 66.7 26.6 45 320 4.47 3.53 10.3 1 2 Josh Allen 173 YPG, .91 TD PG, 1.09 INT PG and add 8 Rushing TDs or another .8 TD PG Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS QBrec Cmp Att Cmp% Yds TD TD% Int Int% ▲ Lng Y/A AY/A Y/C Y/G Rate QBR Sk Yds NY/A ANY/A Sk% 4QC GWD AV 2018 22 BUF QB 17 12 11 5-6-0 169 320 52.8 2074 10 3.1 12 3.8 75 6.5 5.4 12.3 172.8 67.9 52.3 28 213 5.35 4.37 8.0 2 3 So I am calling BS here. The above PASSING STATS shows Josh is better in YPG, TD%, YARDS/ATTEMPT, YARDS/COMPLETION, SACK RATE, 4TH QTR COMEBACKS AND GAME WINNING DRIVES. Rosen is only slightly better in Completion Rate and INT%. No way he is the better passer to this point of their careers. Both QBs struggled but it should be obvious that Josh is better overall QB as generates 1.7 TD per game including Rushing. His Goal Line sneaks and Red zone runs lead to TDs and QB sneaks keep drives alive. That is a plus in NFL. QBR is double that of Rosen's even if Passer rating seems similar. As for Rosen, I liked him as well but think we drafted the right Josh.

Not quite for Josh in 2019 My guess here assuming 16 games played 225 yds/game passing = 3600 yds for 2019 1.5 TDs thrown/game = 24 TDs passing 50 ypg rushing on 8 carries/gm = 800 yds rushing in 2019 .75 TD rushing/game = 12 Rushing TDs on the year. So 4400 yds total vs 2700 yds or 63% more due to more games played and slight increase per game. Coupled with 36 total TDs, which would be double what he generated this year.

I agree with your first paragraph. The comparison is for perspective as I don't think folks know how long it takes most WRs to develop. Having a 3rd WRs coach in his 3 year career won't help too much either.

When Christie showed up in 1992 Jeff Mohr the P became the FG holder

I had JuJu in Rd 3 for Bills that Mock

Eric Moulds Yr 1 and 2 Game Game Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% 1996 23 BUF KR/wr 80 16 5 37 20 279 14.0 2 47 1.3 17.4 54.1% 1997 24 BUF KR/WR 80 16 8 52 29 294 10.1 0 32 1.8 18.4 55.8% Zay Jones Yr 1 and 2 Game Game Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Rece Year Age Tm Pos No. G GS Tgt Rec Yds Y/R TD Lng R/G Y/G Ctch% 2017 22 BUF WR 11 15 10 74 27 316 11.7 2 33 1.8 21.1 36.5% 2018 23 BUF WR 11 16 15 102 56 652 11.6 7 57 3.5 40.8 54.9% Similar year 2 catch rates. Moulds did have Todd Collins and AVP throwing to him in 1997. And Zay had a motley crew this year. Zay had more targets as Moulds had Andre Reed and Quinn Early as WR1 and WR2. Zay's catch rate in 2018 was better than Early's and Reed's in 1997. and he had 2 more TDs than either of them

Lots of simulations have him dropping and he will if there is a run on QBs and Edge rushers - which there usually is. . 2-3 of each would cause an OT to drop. AZ, OAK, SF, Jets and Lions need pass rushers. OAK, JAGS, TB, Giants need a QB. Williams won't go at #1 to AZ as not a value pick at 1. It may be very likely he drops unless someone trades up to snag him ahead of us. And my scenario has them as only remaining starters. We do have to field 53 and will need backups. Of the current 9 roster players at OL, I suggest we keep 5 - and 3 are as backups.

Thanks for posting. Just wondered how dated it is as TD/INT #s appear to be through week 16 and may not include Dolphins' game.

Can't see Bills getting lined up to do this. Only player expendable in backend would be Wallace IMHO. But AB is the anti-Bill from a locker room / team mentality. This is a deep draft at WR and could see OBD take one at 41st pick of draft. If the secondary is so good and important as author states, why deconstruct it and also pass on getting a premier LT or Edge player in RD 1 of 2019 draft? Especially for a WR who has never won an AFC Championship or Super Bowl while on a much more talented team. he has 4 TDs in 10 playoff games. IMHO AB does not make his teammates better.

Good topic OP! Let me share my thoughts. A couple clarifying statements first: LT is a high cost position and few alternatives (ie, not worth it) hitting the market. C is a critical position in Bills Offensive scheme given how complicated it is. Getting a Veteran who can both call schemes well (Bodine can) and physically dominate (Bodine can't) might be a priority at OBD. C is a less expensive position in FA. Difference in LG and RG in Bills' scheme. LG (remember Richie) pulls more in Bills Offense. Teller is barely athletic enough to hold up there and might be better served moving to RG as a result. Dion Dawkins might be targeted to move to new position. (RT or LG). I feel he would dominate at LG given movement skills. So In my opinion, FA and the Draft may play out as follows: Bills select an OT at top of draft and they play LT. (Jonah Williams targeted given familiarity with Daboll) Dawkins is moved to LG and Teller to RG. Both offer more at respective positions than prior starters. FA used to find C and RT. (Paradis, Morse at C. Williams or James at RT). Mills, Miller, Groy and Ducasse are allowed to leave. Bodine, Boettger and McDermott kept as backups. Bills line would be as follows with 3 veteran starters, a 2nd year RG and rookie LT : LT Jonah Williams / Greg Little LG Dion Dawkins C FA signee Paradis or Morse (Culley has insight on Morse given time in KC) RG Teller RT FA signee Daryl Williams (Carolina connection) Ju'waun James (MIA) or Cameron Fleming (DAL but was at NE with Daboll) . All 3 are only 26 years old.

Might just be Robiskie begging off as he has been in league over 40 years as player and coach. Will be 65 this year.

No the guy Denison had at WR Coach Phil McGeoghan was Zays coach at ECU. They both left after last year.

Bears game in particular. Bills only gave up 65 yds on the ground and 134 via the air. But 4 turnovers, including 2 pick 6's did us in. PETERMAN!!!

Must be kept in perspective. Ravens, Chargers, Bears, GB and Colts had no reason to pass versus Bills after halftime. 4 minute offense in effect after the half. In all those games, save the Bears, we also gave up >100 yds rushing, including 220 yds to Colts! Those games hurt our Run defense numbers. Why throw?

and he went in 2nd rd as a result btw, not top 10

Happy for him! Nice to walk into off-season with good memories Glad to see team rally around Kyle Williams and deliver a great sendoff too.

Hate to break this to you. McDs record last 2 years is same as your beloved ex-SU HC Doug Marrone. Marrone is a sub-500 coach in 4 full years as HC. McD has done more in BUF with far less talent (Mario, Dareus, Gilmore, Woods, Watkins, etc). Both had to develop a rookie QB. The Jags quit on Marrone this year. He will be canned after 2019. Allen is way better than any QB we've had in while. And just for the record, Eric Dungy will never be an everyday starter in NFL.

Respect your opinion but prefer a more rounded back like David Montgomery, Iowa State https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/draft/news/nfl-draft-2019-david-montgomery-capable-of-saquon-barkley-like-runs-and-he-has-a-james-conner-floor/