Shaw66

Whatever LA is, it's an absolute certainty that if you asked the NFL to list their top 15 preferred teams in the Super Bowl, neither KC nor Tampa Bay is on the list. The ratings are driven by the big TV markets, and the NFL wants teams from the big TV markets in the Super Bowl. Just like the NBA and Major League Baseball. Tampa Bay and MIlwaukee is not a dream matchup in the World Series.

They didn't get their dream matchup. They got two lousy TV markets. If you're in professional sports, NY-LA or something like that is your dream matchup.

Daughter has a good friend from college. She has two brothers living in southern Cal. They're all jocks. One of the brothers has a girlfriend, and she's a good friend of Kyle Allen's girlfriend. With me so far? So Allen and his GF invited them to watch the game with them. It turned out the party was Darnold's house. One brother brought the other brother along. And there you have it. Just stupid five degrees of separation stuff. I told my daughter I wanted pictures, but haven't seen anything yet.

Yeah. A couple of my daughter's friends are watching the game with them.

Random info I just heard. Don't ask me how I know. Too convoluted.

What to do at contract time is exactly the right question. I'll talk about that in a minute. Age isn't an excuse. But age is relevant in Edmunds' case, because players develop with experience, and his age made him and continues to make him relatively inexperienced. He should continue to develop. The fact that he should continue to develop is relevant to your more important question. I think there are very, very few players who are so important that you pay them whatever they want. Allen is one of those. I don't think Edmunds is. The Bills have to evaluate Edmunds, decide how important he is to the defense, decide how much better they think he is going to get, and then put a dollar value on that. If Edmunds puts a higher value on himself than the Bills do, the Bills have to have the discipline to let him walk. I would definitely exercise the fifth-year option on him, because it gives the Bills another year to see how he develops and because it gives the Bills another year to see whether his successor might be in the pipeline. If you ask me, I certainly would pay him at the top-10 level. Not the top-5 level. He's not producing at the top-5 level. But top-10? Sure, I'd pay at that level. Looking at annual salaries, the 8th highest inside linebacker is at $12 million, the 16th is at $8 million. The difference is just not that great. Paying Edmunds $12 million a year, which is a little better than top-10, would be worth it. You're not going to get a better guy for substantially less. I also think that the people who are down on him have unreasonable expectations. Players should not be evaluated based on where they were drafted. GMs are evaluated on where they drafted players, but players are evaluated by how they play. I think fans who think Edmunds is regularly out of position or plugging the wrong gaps are remembering the guy from two years ago. I think people who think he hurts the Bills in pass defense completely miss the point that he covers larger zones more effectively than almost any MLB I've watched, because he has the speed and body size to do that. He isn't and probably never will be a top-5 hitter. He tackles more like a safety than a classic middle-linebacker. But even there he's been improving regularly. If Edmunds leaves, fans will almost certainly be disappointed with his replacement. There's debate about Edmunds because he isn't playing to expectations. Compared to players in the league, he isn't so disappointing. I regularly thought Biscuit was over-rated. He NEVER played to his draft-hype.

These plays are two good examples of Zimmer's foot speed. On both plays I was stunned to see him pursuing the play. His speed contributed to several tackles he made around the line of scrimmage, too. I think he's a keeper.

I've written about Edmunds a lot. I may decide to get into the detailed discussion in this thread, but that largely will be repeating things I've said elsewhere. I think the Bills should keep Edmunds, and he should continue to be the Bills middle linebacker. When you get past all of the analysis and the details and the stats, the basic question is whether the Bills will have a better middle linebacker if they get rid of Edmunds. I think the answer to that question clearly is no. Edmunds is at a minimum a better than average NFL middle linebacker. He still is young for the league and growing into the role. An All-Pro middle linebacker is not an essential piece of a championship team. The Bills should keep Edmunds because he isn't a liability, his replacement almost certainly will be worse, and he has potential.

I think that's correct. Allen particularly, because he likes where he is and because he would care very much where he was sent. So I think we'll see the no-trade clause.

Apparently, we are. I think this thread will be active until Jackson retires and his era is truly over. Only ten years to go.

Well, the thing is, when your veteran star says he's playing, you play him. Maybe it shouldn't be that way - Brees told Payton he wanted to play, and in retrospect it was a mistake. As I've thought back on the game, I had the same thought about McKenzie. I've never been a huge McKenzie fan, but his speed alone should have put some pressure on their defense that Beasley wasn't able to do. Stills is a different story. Who knows how well acclimated he was to the offense. Maybe Allen wasn't comfortable throwing to him.

Conflict defender is a term I was unfamiliar with, but that says exactly what I was talking about. And now it becomes even more clear, because the Bills were not disguising their defense. They were in that passive two-deep zone a lot, KC had seen it before, was well prepared for it. They expect to be able to attack Edmunds, they did, and the Bills didn't respond. Thanks for the post.

In response to this, I'm going to say what I've said a few times before. It isn't completely original - the core of the idea was said in this forum a few months ago. Before I say it, I have to say that people are getting carried away with how to beat KC. I mean, sure, the Bills have to beat KC, but the real objective is to become the team to beat, not to be the team that can beat the team to beat. Having said that, I think you're right that the Bills playing style should be to score a lot of points, and that's exactly what you're saying. Here's the way I think it should be: The Buffalo Bills have a generational quarterback. He is one of the smartest QBs ever to play in the league. He is one of the best natural leaders ever to play QB in the league. He is one of the best throwers ever to have played in the league. Of all of the Hall of Fame caliber throwers in the history of the league, he may be the best runner ever. He is one of the biggest, strongest quarterbacks in the league. The Bills objective shouldn't be to score a lot of points to beat KC. Their objective should be to score a lot of points because they have the best QB in the world for scoring points. That's why Beane traded for Diggs. And because that's the kind of offense the Bills should have, that's why the Bills shouldn't play defense that challenges the opponent to go on long clock-eating drives. The Bills should play defense that challenges the opponent to score fast or punt, because that's the kind of defense that gets the ball into Allen's hands quickly. The Bills defense should take risks, force turnovers, and challenges the opponent to beat them long. Granted, KC is uniquely equipped to do exactly that, but that just defines the nature of the challenge when the Bills play the Chiefs. The Bills defense should pressure the QB mercilessly and should challenge him to beat the Bills deep by taking away all the short stuff. Make Kelce irrelevant. That is exactly how the Chiefs played the Bills - take the run away, take the short game away, dare them to go long. The Bills played into the Chiefs hands by being passive, true, but the problem with being passive is not that it helped the Chiefs offense. The problem is that style doesn't complement the Bills offense.

Interesting. Allen for Watson and Tunsil is very interesting. But I think your point about the locker room trumps everything. Between his teammates and the fan, Allen is 100% untradeable. (Well, Allen for Mahomes, Hill, and Chris Jones, maybe! But any serious trade, no.)

Right. I just wrote in another thread that everything has changed for the Bills, including the off-season. Now the off-season is interesting for completely different reasons.

Thanks. Those are all good thoughts. As I just said responding to Thurman in the thread about whether Beane will make any big splashes, none of us knows. Good thoughts about the disruptive pass rusher. My pipe dream is JJ Watt. I don't think he fits in the category over-priced free agent category. I think salary is going to be secondary for him - he's going to move for the best football environment on a championship potential team. Something on line says he has a net worth of $50 million, which may be high, but it's probably at least $30 million. He's a smart guy, and he understands that he's already set for life. I'd guess that in his mind, $10 million a year on a team he really wants to be on is a better deal than getting a bigger contract from the Bengals. My problem with moving up to draft a pass rusher is that those guys are very hit-or-miss in the draft. The highest the Bills could reasonably move, just guessing, is to 10 or 15, and you're not going to find a certifiable disruptor there. Everything has changed with the Bills, including the off-season. The off-season now is interesting for completely different reasons.

Obviously, we're all just speculating, but I think it's much more possible than you seem to think. I assume he has a no-trade clause, so he has some control over where he goes. There probably are only a half dozen teams or so that he'd like to go to, all teams with Super Bowl potential. Salary also has to factor into it. Kansas City is $16 million deeper in cap trouble than the Bills, so KC probably would have more trouble freeing up money to pay him. Plus, they've got big cap money tied up in Frank Clark and Chris Jones, so it's hard to imagine KC would spend big on another defensive lineman. Even though Watt wants to play every down, he knows that at this point in his career, reducing his snaps is good thing. He knows he'll be platooned in Buffalo. As I've said elsewhere, I think that Buffalo is exactly the kind of team Watt wants to play for. I actually have wondered if McDermott was intentionally talking to Watt when he closed his end-of-season press conference: "This place is a special place, surrounded by a special fan base, and where else would you rather come to play the best football of your career? This is, to me, a great place to play if you're truly passionate and love the game of football." I don't think JJ Watt in Buffalo is far-fetched.

I think we won't see any major moves in the draft. Beane loves having draft picks, and he doesn't need to add a superstar to the team. He might LIKE to add a superstar - we'd all like that, but he doesn't need to do it. So, I seriously doubt he's going to package picks to move up in the first round. However, I don't think a free agent star is out of the question. No one knows yet where the cap will be, no one knows yet whether someone like Milano is going to leave for the best deal he can find, and no one knows yet which vets, if any, Beane would be willing to cut to create some additional cap space. What he do know is that Beane is fearless. Although I doubt it will happen, I won't be surprised if he makes some cap moves and signs a big-time player. If he's going after a big-time player, I think it's gotta be an offensive or defensive lineman. That's where the Bills could use a serious upgrade: A disruptor on the defensive line or a stud offensive lineman. If for example, it came down to writing a big check to Milano or to JJ Watt, Milano could be history. I think Beane already quietly signaled that he thinks Milano wants more than the Bills will pay (at his press conference he talked about Milano in the same way he talked about Philips and Lawson last year), and as we all know, McDermott always says that his defense starts with pressure from the front four. With the 30th pick in the draft, you can find a guy with Milano's physical skills, but you've got to be awfully lucky to find a disrupting pass rusher. As others have said, it's going to be very important that Beane gets a good player at the end of the first round.

That's really very enlightening for me. Seriously, thanks. Here's a thought I've had for at least the last half of the season: I wonder - I'll admit, I don't know, but I have at least a suspicion - I wonder if people have been putting Daboll on a pedestal higher than he deserves. I think he's good, but he hasn't convinced me that he's truly creative. I think he's shown that he can watch film of a defense and figure out what in his offense will work against that defense. Where I wonder about his creativity is when he doesn't have anything in his offense that will work, can he tweak his offense to come up with an approach that will work. And it's not enough to just create a gadget play or two; it's about bringing a new approach to the run game, from week to week if necessary, to make it work. Now, that discussion implicates exactly what you're talking about. Maybe he's good at that creative part, but he can only create with the material he has - he only has the skills on the offensive line that are there and he only has the skills his backs offer him. That limits what he can create. It's been clear to me that McDermott's coaching philosophy is never to ask players to do things that they are simply physically unable to do. In a sense, this is the age-old problem. Bad coaches always say, internally, "my players aren't good enough." The best coaches figure out how to get the most of their players. The GM and the HC have to figure out where the problem really is. The Bills' approach is that EVERYONE has to get better, coaches and players. Daboll didn't bring enough to the table this year, despite all the success he had, and McBeane have to decide whether he can get better or whether they need to replace him. McBeane also have to figure out if the players can get better or whether McBeane need to replace them. One thing we know for sure: McBeane are not going to sit on their hands. Changes will be made, because they made it clear in their press conferences (as if we needed to hear it) that they aren't satisfied with what they had.

Fair enough, although I'm not sure I agree. Regardless, that's where speed comes into play. When the hole isn't there, the principal way the back can get something out of nothing is to run away from trouble. Singletary doesn't have the speed to do that. Moss doesn't either, and although he's more powerful than Devin, he doesn't have the power simply to bulldoze on through. As I look back on the season, my sense is that except in the couple of games when the running game was working, the backs didn't have much room to run. Allen didn't, either, on many designed runs. That tells me the line wasn't getting it done. Because the line seemed to be decent or better this year, in terms of talent, it leaves me with scheme. I think there are problems all around.

What do I know? I'm just a fan, but I'd offer this, Logic: Scheme and personnel. That's what football is about. I don't think the Bills have been creative enough in the running game. I don't know anything about how to design a running game, but what the Bills did running this season looked pretty plain vanilla to me. I think the Bills weren't good at misdirection, weren't good in the outside zone blocking schemes, and weren't good at attacking the defensive fronts presented to them. Yes, they ran an occasional jet sweep, but when the Bills do that stuff it looks like a gimmick they've inserted into an otherwise bland running game. The style of the running game is not flashy or creative. So much for scheme. As for personnel, speed is the obvious missing characteristic. McKenzie was their speed back, and he was just a gadget player. Maybe the Bills should have tried running him out of the backfield, do quick pitches to him, and maybe even letting him hit it up the middle on misdirection plays. Just as McDermott has been clear that the passing game has to be able to stretch the field vertically, the running game needs to stretch it horizontally, and Singletary and Moss don't have the speed to do that. And some of the problem has to be on the offensive line. If Morse is going to be your center, he's fine for the pulling game, but power isn't his style. He needs to be paired with a couple of quick but tough guards. Feliciano is one. Is Ford the other? I don't know. Are Dawkins and Williams the guys to get it done at tackle? I don't know. Point is, everything in the running game has to get better.

Bills need a playmaker or two on the Dline. Oliver may become one, with the right supporting cast. Watt is a playmaker. He's a guy who requires the attention of the offense. Even if he is on the downside.

I've thought for a month that he's going to want out, and Watson bailing will be more motivation. This is a guy who cares about only one thing - winning, and I'm sure seeing Hopkins traded and now seeing Watson heading out will not make him happy. I will repeat again what I said yesterday. If you listen to McDermott's post-season press conference, at the end, he says something like Buffalo is the best town to play football in, the fans are the best in the NFL, and the Bills are the team where you will play the best football in your life. It was a message to free agents - if you're good, and if you want to be on a team full of guys who want to be the best versions of themselves, the Bills are the team. I'm hoping there's a way for Watt to end up in Buffalo. He's been playing, I think, about 80-90% of his team's defensive snaps, and in Buffalo he'd play no more than 60%. At this point in his career, he may see that as a plus (even though he wants to be on the field every play), because at 60% he can reduce the wear and tear and be more likely to play full seasons.

This is really dumb. Ali-Frazier is exactly the right example. First fight, Frazier was champ. Ali didn't knock him out, Frazier kept the title. Second fight neither had the title. Third fight, Ali had the title, Frazier didn't knock him out, Ali kept the title. Exactly what Whaley said. If you want the title you have to knockout the champ. Those three fights were amazing.

I dont think this correct. When you have a superstar qb, and I think the Bills do, you dont go away from that strength. The Bills didn't get Diggs so they could pass less. The Bills are a big-play explosive team; otherwise they could have kept Tyrod. The Chiefs have a better running game than the Bills, but that isn't a balanced offense, either. That's an offense that uses its passing to set up the run. They challenge you every week to stop Hill and Kelce and Watkins and Hardman.