Shaw66

I don't agree with all the knee-jerk conclusions that a guy like this is nothing more than camp fodder. I don't know anything about him at all, but I know this: There are about 150 offensive tackles in the NFL - 100 on the active rosters and another 50 on the practice squad. There is very little difference in the size or raw athletic talent of the last 100. That is, the top 50 offensive tackles deserve to be starters, the next 100 are all about the same, physically. The best coaches find a way to take some of the guys out of the bottom 100 and get them to play well. Sometimes they get them to play well by connecting with them somehow, getting them to focus better on their game, getting them more motivated. Sometimes they get them to play better by putting them on a team and in a system that allows them to succeed where they couldn't succeed in other systems. The point is that every year there are guys who change teams and who succeed in the new environment. So, I never complain about this kind of signing. Will the guy succeed? Probably not, but he might. I'm happy to wait and see.

But this is what I find so interesting: As I said earlier, we've now seen Beane go through two free agent seasons without looking for an upgrade on the offensive line, or at least looking aggressively. We've seen him upgrade the receiving corps two years in a row and do nothing about the offensive line. That tells me that McBeane don't agree with you - they don't think the fix to the running game is upgrading talent on the offensive line. Rookie olinemen typically don't make an impact, so they aren't looking to the draft to do it. That's why I say that they're relying on the Growth Mindset to make the offensive line better. They seem to think that the genetic ceilings of the current players are high enough. I agree with this completely. Beane said it after the season ended. There's no doubt in my mind that they are working actively to improve the running game. And McDermott told Daboll, and Daboll is working on it. I will be amazed if we don't see an improved running game in 2021.

I don't see anyone in the league doing what McD is doing so openly, and with such good results. McDermott's players are openly reciting the mantra. There are a lot of teams chasing free agents to get better - not the Bills. And I'll say what I say often - I don't know if what McD is doing will work, I'm just describing what he's doing and what the philosophy is. This is the second season in a row when McBeane have said to the offensive line "It's up to you - we aren't bringing in anyone to replace you." Last season Williams was the only addition, and he was late to the party. They didn't draft anyone. They said to the offensive line, "We got Diggs and we're expecting you to give time to Josh to find him." And the offensive line responded. They didn't bring in a fancy free agent offensive lineman or running back this year. They're saying, again, "You guys who are already here can do what needs to be done." So, whether everyone else in the league is into the growth mindset or not, McDermott is counting on that philosophy to make his team better. We'll see how it works out.

This post, and Hapless's post right after it, are the important points. Remember that the Bills are about continuous improvement. The Growth Mindset. McDermott and Beane expect the offensive line to be better in 2021, and perhaps more importantly, the offensive line itself expects to be better. They expect to run the same plays in 2021 that they ran in 2020 and create the running room they didn't create in 2020. That's the growth mindset. And McDermott has a knack for getting players to achieve the objectives they set for themselves. So, I'm expecting the running game to be better in 2021, first and foremost, because the offensive line is going to perform better. Either same the starting five, or a starting five that includes Ford, if he can win a spot, or a stud O lineman taken in the first round, or someone else who steps up. Assuming Moss is healthy, he will be a bigger factor, and maybe Breida will win more playing time than his season in Miami would suggest. Or maybe there's a rookie. But the the running game will be better primarily because the offensive line will be better. And I think Hapless is on the money, too. I don't think there's any reason that just because the Bills ran successfully with 12 personnel last season they will be able to have that same success if they double their usage of that scheme in 2021. Smith is gone. When he was the second tight end, it was more like they were running with an 8-man line than with what most teams do with two tight ends. He was an extra tackle on the field. There's no reason to assume that the Bills can have as much success running with 12 personnel when Knox and Hollister are the two tight ends on the field. On the other hand, Smith on the field meant the Bills probably were running - with Knox and Hollister on the field, the Bills will not be showing a power front, but they WILL be showing two guys the pass defense has to worry about AND who at least can get in someone's way in the running game. Bottom line, I don't think 12-personnel the way the Bills look to be able to run it will be the answer to the running game. It may help, but it won't be the answer. The answer, if the Bills have it, will be in the Growth Mindset.

I have no idea who their guy might be, but there will be a guy at 30 who the Bills believe should have gone at 15, and they'll be thrilled to get him.

After 60+ years, it's all begun to be a big blur. All I know is that it's been great! Going to games with my Dad. The 1963 playoff against the Pats - I was there. The 1964 AFL Championship game - I was there. The 1969 Championship game on TV. OJ. Joe Ferguson. The Dolphins losing streak. Wide right - I was there. The Super Bowls. The Music City Miracle. 6-3 - I was there. Road trips to Chicago - Freddie's stiff arm in overtime. To Green Bay - Trent's last game! To Atlanta - we made more noise than the Falcons fans. Kyle. Fitz. Josh. Taron Johnson - I was there. Just great.

Oh, boy. Me too. That qualifies for something.

Looks like a faster version os Singletary

Good one!

Good point about how they've hedged the Tua bet.

I gotta say that although I don't think Tua is the man, the Dolphins have been making a lot of good moves. I think they're building nicely.

Well, I'm not going to predict what Allen will do. But he IS playing for a team that promotes a team mentality, and he has bought into that mentality completely. So that's something. Plus, not everyone is into the get-every-dollar-you-can point of view. If you're a 26-year-old linebacker who's made $8 million during your time in the league, the next contract has a lot to say about what the rest of your life will look like. But if you're about to sign a contract that GUARANTEES $100 million, which after tax and current living expenses leaves you with $50 million in the bank, you're in a much different position. You're looking at a life where your annual income, for the rest of your life, is $1.5 to $2 million. Every year, $1.5 million. For ever. In that position, some players will say "I don't need every last dollar. I care about winning, and if sharing some of the extra dollars I could get means my team will be in a better position, I can do that." Everything we know about Allen is that he is the kind of guy who might take that approach. For one thing, I get the sense, but I don't know, that his family is financially successful. This isn't a situation where Josh is going to run out and buy a house for Mom. Second, he's really well grounded, a simple-pleasures kind of guy. Third, all the reports are that he is a 100% team guy. So, I expect that Allen will at least agree to anything Beane suggests in terms of contract structure. That is, if the dollars are the same, Allen will take the team-friendly contract structure. Beyond that, we may never know how hard Allen bargained for what he got. That is, if Allen could get $40 million a year guaranteed for six years and he takes $39 million a year, we simply won't know. If that happens, that's team-friendly $1 million a year. If he takes $38 million a year, same thing. The only way we'll know if Allen was team-friendly will be if he takes a number that we all can see is lower than his market value. If he gets a new deal that leaves him out of the top five QBs in terms of pay, we'll know. But if he takes a deal that makes him the fourth highest paid QB, it means he probably still left money on the table, money that his agent knew he could get but Allen said not. Think about it this way. If Allen takes money that makes him the #4 highest paid, don't you think Allen could have said "no, I'll try free agency" and done better? I mean, why take #4 money when he can be a free agent or force the Bills to franchise him, which will get him the average of the top 5? Cousins did it and it worked great for him. Why wouldn't Allen? All I'm saying is wait and see. If Allen gets a deal that approaches Mahomes range, we'll know Allen pushed for the dollars. If he's getting only top 5 money, it means he gave the Bills a discount.

It doesn't just seem that way. That is exactly what Beane says he does. Fill holes in free agency, take BPA in the draft.

I don't know if they hate Jackson, but these guys saying no to Baltimore doesn't surprise me. In the thread I started that people loved to hate, I said that you can't build a winner with a running quarterback. People said, "well, just give him some good receivers, and you'll see that offense take off." Well, if you're a good receiver, why would you want to go to a team where your job is to be a threat that helps open up the running game? Why would you want to go to a team that has a guy who has never shown that he can be a top-end passer? You wouldn't. Why did John Brown go to Baltimore instead of Buffalo? Because Baltimore had Flacco and Buffalo had an unproven rookie. Why did he leave Baltimore for Buffalo? Because Flacco lost the job Jackson and Allen demonstrated that he could really throw it, that's why. Why did Sanders leave New Orleans for Buffalo? Why not Baltimore? It's obvious. Stefon Diggs and Emanuel Sanders want to play with a pocket passer who can complete every pass in the playbook, not with a guy who wants to run the ball twenty times a game.

Virg - Listen to Sanders. He was practically salivating to play with this team.

More to your point. Listen to the press conference Emanuel Sanders had. He talks about his career. He played with Ben in Pittsburgh, as a free agent he signed with Denver so he could play with Peyton, he played with Garoppolo in SF, then as a free agent signed to play with Brees. In the press conference, they asked two telling questions. One question was whether he considered Buffalo when he went to Denver. "No." He made it clear that back, four or five years ago, there was no point in considering Buffalo if you wanted to him. Another question was whether last year, when he chose New Orleans, Josh Allen not having emerged and Brees being a Hall of Famer had any impact on his decision. "Absolutely." This is a guy who wants to win. Period. He isn't going anyplace where he doesn't have a shot at a Super Bowl, and he isn't going anyplace where he has a project quarterback. He made it completely clear that that's why this year was the first year coming to Buffalo made sense to him.

He can't hold a candle to Beasley, so he's not getting a lot of playing time in the slot. Point is, I'm not sure he's all that marketable. Good multi-purpose guy with good speed, but no one is signing him to rejuvenate their passing game.

Two studs, plus a couple shutdown corners in 20 years of NFL dominance. It's not a lot of stars. Belichick didn't run a star system, and McDermott isn't running one, either. Our expectations, as fans, are going to go unmet. McBeane intend to be drafting in the 20s and 30s every year, and they aren't going to get stars in the draft, except by accident.

I agree with you. None has emerged yet. I also think great teams have only a few stars. Bills have two in Allen and Diggs. They need a couple of others to emerge. Oliver is still a candidate. They could use a standout on the oline. But the other thing to remember is that McBeane aren't running a star system. They're running a system like Belichick runs the Patriots. It's a lot of good football players doing their jobs. Other than Brady, the Pats didn't have a lot of studs. Wilfork, I suppose. And the collection of shutdown corners. But by and large, the people who looked like stars in New England were just good players in a great system. Free agents who left New England rarely proved to be stars elsewhere. McBeane are trying to do the same thing. They believe they don't need Oliver to that guy the Rams have, they don't need Edmunds to be Dick Butkus, they don't need Hyde to be Polamalu. They believe in having a lot good players and together being a great team.

Sure, there are lots of things to consider, but if I'm McKenzie, I'm beginning to see my ceiling and even the end of my career. I've had four seasons in the league, and I haven't been able to force my way into a starting lineup. If I want to start, I have to go someplace where there's less competition. I start weighing what's important to me: starting, winning, money. Everyone weighs that, of course, but as I begin to see the end of my career coming, what's important to me starts to become clearer. For some guys, it's money. My agent and my financial planners are telling me how much money I need for the rest of my life, and their telling me if they can find me a contract to get that money. For others, for the kind of guys that McBeane want on the Bills, winning, the team experience, personal self-improvement are what matters most. McKenzie seems to be saying that no one was offering enough additional money to make it worth giving up something that he values a lot. He hasn't earned enough money to retire for life, and he almost certainly won't earn that much, wherever he goes. Logic's point really is that in the past, there was no reason to stay in Buffalo for any amount less than what someone else was offering. Now there is. I think he is a mediocre receiver, and the league knows it. If he were a good receiver, he would have played a lot more snaps while Brown was struggling, or he wouldn't have let Davis take snaps from him. I don't think he's a good route runner, and I think he has bad hands. He doesn't make many difficult catches, and he drops routine balls.

Both are interesting points. Ford, of course, isn't new to the team, but I get the point. I like Hollister, but I have trouble seeing him taking playing time from Knox. It would be nice if he was good enough to make some two-tight-end sets a new weapon for the Bills, but I think at best he'll have only occasional impact. Whatever, it's pretty clear that the Bills believe the players they have, and the team, can perform at a higher level. They value the continuity and the continuing improvement, the growth mindset, over the talent differential they might have acquired in free agency.

It's amazing that the Bills are going to play 2021 with more or less the same roster they played in 2020. Sanders is the only lineup change. That, of course, is not completely true. Some rookie will break into the starting lineup, and some yet-to-be-signed free agent will play, too. Maybe even a trade will happen. Still, it's going to be largely the same team. Amazing the faith they have in the D-line and the linebackers.

I'd much rather trade my pick at 30 for the 14th pick in the second round and the 14th pick in the third round. That would give me two picks in the second and two in the third. That would set me up to have four rookies playing meaningful snaps in the second half of 2021.

I read only enough of this thread to find someone I agreed with. Not surprised it's you. No way am I trading two good players taken at 30 and 62 for one player taken at 18. No way. It's all about stockpiling good talent. No. 18 is not going to be a difference maker on the Bills.

In his podcast interview with some guy in England, Wade said it wasn't easy learning to catch a football. I don't think the issue with punt and kick returns is that it's technical. The issue that it is very high risk. One mistake can be a 50-yard turnover. It's a high-pressure, three-second-or-less play where you have to make the right decision, every time. It's why I always breathe easy when Hyde goes back to return punts. He has excellent hands and makes the right decision virtually all the time. Roberts was excellent at it, too. Wade simply has never - not once - stood under a punt with even NCAA Division I players coming at him, with decisions to be made about catch or not, fair catch or not, how to play the sideline. He didn't do it his first season, he might have done it if he had a preseason in 2020 but he didn't. I just don't see how McD can decide to go into 2021 season taking that risk on punts. Kickoffs, maybe, but not punts. One turnover on punts and kickoffs is too many, two would be completely unacceptable. Now, the guy is a veteran professional athlete, and he will have had two years of various kinds of opportunities to learn the game, so maybe, just maybe he can do it. Still, like you, I'd call no better than 25%.