Shaw66

I realized yesterday, as I do every draft, that I was getting sucked into this way of thinking. Every team evaluates the talent, and they all draft their share of it. They all pick from more or less the same lists of players rated more or less the same. I'm certain that no good team got significantly better than the Bills. The bad teams get better because they can go into the fourth or maybe fifth round and draft starters. Teams with as much talent as the Bills have can't draft starters like that. Give this draft three years. I think you'll give it a better grade.

I like this draft because I see the intelligence of everything McBeane do. They're confident and competent. They're fearless. They know what they want. They know they aren't going to solve every problem in three days. They know there are more players to acquire. And they know how to coach and fit guys into their scheme. They clearly want big and tougher linemen on offense, big and quick guys on defense. I'm down with that. Competition? There's going to be some incredible competition on the lines this summer. Nice draft.

I think it makes sense, but it's easier said than done. We'll see.

RIght. Every year I say the same thing: When the draft is over, the teams have a mad scramble to sign undrafted free agents. Why? Because there's talent in the group of undrafteds, and the GMs know that. Undrafted free agents make teams every season. Well, if that's true, then it's even more true in the final two rounds - the guys taken in those rounds are generally better than the undrafteds. Those guys make squads and play serious roles, if not the first year, then in the second. This trade gives the Bills one extra player from a pool of good prospects. It's foolish to say these picks are unimportant. You can't keep your roster full with free agents and picks from the first two days.

The fifth round pick they traded is going to win a SB now?

Practice squad. These are development projects. Beane said this draft is about the future.

Well, it's an endless debate, but here's what I think having watched the Bills this off-season: The offensive line protected Allen pretty well, it didn't run block very well at all, and the running backs struggled. What did Beane do? He stood pat. Acquired one probably mediocre running back, no linemen. He drafted one project offensive lineman, no impact running back. What does that tell me? It's now obvious that the Bills expect they're going to have success running the ball with what they have. That McDermott and Beane think they can succeed without more talent. In particular, it means that they think offensive line play is about teamwork, not talent.

Thanks for this. I really don't know the college talent, and if the Bills could get a 1 tech today, I'd be thrilled. It may be a guy who takes a year on the practice squad, if that's what it takes. There were times when the Bills just seemed to get overpowered, and there's no substitute for bulk. Star is one of those guys the fans love to hate, but his absence last season really hurt. Thanks, John.

Yes, and they also lock into beliefs about certain players on the team, like Levi Wallace. For two years or more, the fan drumbeat is that the Bills have to replace Wallace. Well, McBeane keep bringing in players - is Richard Sherman next? - and Wallace is still out there. We don't hear McDermott screaming for help at corner. As I've said, for McBeane, it's about the sum total of the talent on the roster, not about any one position. You weaken the team if you take less than the best talent because you'd like to upgrade a position.

I agree about Basham; you can see in the film that he plays the game at a fundamentally high level. Rousseau is Edmunds on the defensive line; "kid, we're going to put you out there, and if you can learn to do all the things you need to learn, you're going to the Hall of Fame." Yes, Addison would look like he's at risk. And/or Daryl Johnson. The problem is that the Bills have to many edge players and not enough, or good enough, one-tech players. Star's at the end of his run, probably, and Phillips improved last season but isn't there. Is Butler part of that answer? And none of the edge players, plus Oliver, can hold up playing the one tech. Apparently, on passing downs, the Bills are thinking some of this talent will move inside and the one-tech boys will take a seat; is it possible to expand the number of plays where you can afford to sacrifice the bulk for small and quick?

I've said this before. It's just a theory I have. The objective in building a football team is to have the best talent you can have. To make it truly objective, what I'd like to be able to do is put a numeric value on how good each player on the team is, add them up, and the team with the highest number has the best talent. Now, you can't do that, because rating talent is too subjective. I don't even know what RAS stands for, but I see a lot of people here referencing that measure. But you don't rate QBs primarily on RAS; they need a different scale. So as a practical matter, what I'd like to do is impossible, but that's what a GM would like to be able to. Beane essentially subscribes to that theory. He wants to fill his team with the best talent possible; he wants guys with the highest possible rating on my theoretical rating system, and he doesn't care if that means that he has three offensive tackles on his team who are all at the top of the scale. He's going BPA in the early rounds, because whoever they are and whatever position they play, there's no substitute for talent. He also understands that once he acquires talent, he can use the talent in multiple ways - either play it or trade it. Heck, even if he just loses it in free agency, he gets a compensatory pick. Beane knows that the more talent he puts on the roster, at whatever position, the more McDermott has to work with. You can be sure that Beane and McDermott talked yesterday, and Beane asked McDermott if he'd mind adding Basham to the roster. McDermott said something like, "are you kidding? Give me the best football players you can, and I'll figure out what to do with them." You're right, some fans go nuts when Beane does things like this. Last year it was Fromm. How could they possibly waste a pick on Fromm? Because, as far as Beane was concerned, he was by far the best player available. McBeane have the team set up the way they said they would set it up. They have talent everywhere, and they create competition. They didn't have to chase a corner back in the draft because whether the fans like it or not, Wallace is a solid #2, Jackson looks like good competition, and there still are more picks and free agents to acquire. They didn't need to chase an offensive lineman. They didn't need even to chase an edge, but when one fell to them they took him. They certainly didn't need to chase a second one, but when one fell to them, they took him. I'd love a one-tech guy, and McD would be happy if one showed up on his roster. However, McD will coach the players he has, and if it's going to be Star and Phillips and some undersized, talented guys, well, okay. Beane says it over and over. He fills hole in free agency, be builds talent in the draft. And you know what? I'm happy with his drafts every year, because when he's done he's always added a list of talented football players.

Beane's press conference last night. The video is on the Bills website. I was surprised that he was that frank about it. He was trading out of the pick, and he sounded excited to be able to do it. But he would trade if Basham was there.

Well, I'm not so sure about that. I mean, the game's always evolving, so it's hard to say what will happen. But the pro game is following the college game, particularly when it comes to wide open, spread offensive play. What the college guys figured out is that with speed and quick decision making they can gain an advantage on the defense. And that style means that your offensive line doesn't have to pass protect for very long, and no matter how quick your defense is, if the QB is getting the ball out, you aren't going to get to him in time. That's why, for example, the Bills weren't afraid to take two edge guys. As Huck or someone said, the 340-pound nose tackle is a little less valuable than he used to be. On passing downs, and there are a lot more passing downs than there used to be, it makes some sense to envision Hughes, Oliver, Rousseau and Basham as the defensive line - four guys who all can play defensive end or 3-tech d tackle, because you want their speed and quickness. We're seeing safeties playing linebacker. It's as though coaches are trying to get as many skill position players on the field as possible, and that means the big uglies are becoming dinosaurs to some extent. It may be why the Bills were interested in Brown - he's an athlete. It's also why I think drafting offensive linemen in the first couple of rounds is sort of out of favor. Yeah, you need your left tackle and all that, but NFL offensive linemen have such long incubation periods that many of the good ones have played out their rookie contracts before they become good. That's why we see Beane scrounging the waiver wire and free agency for O linemen. Obviously, the o line is still important. All I'm saying is that it isn't so clear that all the old adages continue to be the absolute rules that they used to be.

A couple of comments, about this and in general. First, thanks for your coverage. You've become my go-to draft guy. Basham - I watched just a highlight video, and a few images struck me as a Jerry Hughes type, now that Jerry plays his position with such discipline. Basham looks like that. He plays his position with determination and passion, but first and foremost, he plays his position. Someone said they took Rousseau for his ceiling and Basham for his floor, and I think that's a good statement. Basham looks like he can come in and play pretty quickly. Basham-Shaq? I think Shaq underperforms his talent and maybe always will. McBeane didn't pick him, and they didn't keep him, and I think it's because Shaq didn't have the mindset. Shaq wasn't about the relentless pursuit of excellence. Basham looks like he is. Basham looks like you can get Shaq's run defense from him, but you also can get some serious pass rush and pursuit. Finally, as I said elsewhere, it's really telling that the Bills had a deal in place to trade back and backed out of the deal when Basham was still on the board. McBeane must really like in him. Brown - offensive linemen that tall make me nervous. It's tough for guys that tall to be effective, but when they are, they're awesome. Like Rousseau, another high ceiling guy. Since he arrived, Beane has been transparent about how he goes after talent. Get your talent in the draft, fill holes in free agency. In the draft, take the best talent on the board in the first few rounds, regardless of position, because the draft is your best opportunity to get talent. Take guys with upside - Allen, Edmunds, Oliver, Rousseau, Brown - because that's your best chance eventually to have stars on your team. Day three and the undrafted free agents is where a GM really can have impact. Everyone can tell who the best 100 players in the draft are; finding guys who will make your team in the next 200 makes a lot of difference for your team.

First, I don't think the Bills spend as much time thinking about how to beat the Chiefs as the fans do. McBeane think about having the best football team, period. However, in this case, what the Bills lacked against the Chiefs was one of McDermott's defensive fundamentals: pressure the QB with four guys. So, in going after these pass rushers, Beane's keeping his HC happy AND he's preparing for Mahomes. I haven't read the thread, so I don't know all that's been said. I'll try to catch up. First thing I did this morning is watch Beane's presser from last night, and two things stuck out. One is what we already know - Beane is absolutely about best player available. Absolutely. The press keeps asking these need-based questions, and Beane keeps saying we take the best player. The other thing really speaks to how good they think Basham is. The Bills had a trade finalized to move back. They were going to pick up a second third round pick and some other picks, apparently. With three picks to go, the trade was finalized, but Beane told the other team if his guy was there, the trade was off. Basham was his guy. Think about that - he turned down a trade he liked to take a player at a position where he no longer had, strictly speaking, a need. Lastly, as someone said, the Giants beat the Patriots with a lot of pass rushers all in the lineup, and for two days now we've heard Beane talk about Rousseau and Basham moving inside. I think McDermott's creative juices are flowing.

I just wanted to see him get up.

You bet. He'll line up at tight end some in two tight end sets.

Now it's five first rounders and two second rounders, and Phillips. Beane's gonna look at Daboll and say can you say Allen? Can you say Beasley? Can you say Diggs? Can you say Sanders? Daboll is thrilled that his defense is getting stronger.

Yes, he said they expect he may move inside on passing downs. I was surprised he was that frank about it.

Well, yeah, and I like it, but it presents problems starting a couple of years from now. Ideally, you keep all your first and second round picks, extending them after their rookie deals. That's tough to do when you have three edge guys plus Oliver to consider. You can't afford to extend all of them. Doesn't seem like any of them can be your 1-tech guy, you can't have three big-contract edge rushers, you can't have two big contract 3-techs. You deal with it, of course, by dealing one or two of them before their rookie deals are done. Not a perfect solution, it's manageable. Beane is just steadfastly BPA, and Basham was the BPA. McDermott doesn't mind having too many good players.

My, my. What got you all excited? All I said was that you were badly understating the quality of Hughes and Addison. But since you asked: Epenesa is definitely not gone. Hughes or Addison might be. Or they might all stay. They play four DEs, and they might carry five. And there may be plans to play one or another at DT. I don't know. Beane drafts BPA; this wasn't a plan that they had. They liked both of them, both guys were certainly the BPA on their board when they picked. I'm sure Beane and McDermott talked today, before they made the pick and probably this afternoon when Beane was stufy possible scenarios. Beane asked McD whether he would be okay if Basham was the pick, and McD said yes. If you ask them tonight what they're going to do, they'll say they don't know, but they like competition and they'll figure it out. There's just no reason to be all hot about it. Bills D line underperformed last season, and Beane is going to do something about it. What's not to like about that?

I don't get a lot of this. I mean, the Bills pass rush wasn't good enough last season, but please, a little objectivity. First, Hughes played 64% of the snaps, which is less than the starters on all the teams that don't platoon seriously. So, there's that. Then there's the fact that Hughes was at or near the top of the league in QB pressures, which is the more important stat. Next, it's very obvious that rookies don't start game one in Buffalo. Edmunds is the exception. The Bills expect a lot of their players, and rookies rarely master enough, especially on the defense, to start early in their rookie year. Addison and Hughes have knowledge about the game and knowledge about their assignments in the Frazier-McD defense that no rookie will have. If Rousseau turns out to be an ordinary first round pick for the Bills, he'll gradually increased snaps over the course of the year, a lot like Epenesa. If he actually takes the starting job from one of the vets, then the pick is a homerun.

Nobody drafted at 30 can be expected to have an immediate impact. You MIGHT find a day one starter, but even that is unlikely. Not an edge, not a running back, not a receiver, not a defensive back. Yes, a guy who plays more is more valuable than a guy who plays less in his rookie year, but the difference just isn't that big.

When you can afford it. The Bills have one of the most talented rosters in the league. The best they could hope to do at 30 is someone who will take some starters' job, but it's not a guy who at the season is going to be hailed as the guy who put the Bills over the top. A contributor as a rookie, yes, but a not a game changer. When you're in that position, you have the luxury of taking someone who is less likely to be an immediate starter but more likely to be one of your star players in three years (and if he really works out, he could be a game changer in year one). It's a risk, for sure, but it's less of a risk when you have a roster without meaningful holes.

I agree. If you listen to that podcast, they say that Beane's style is to draft high-ceiling guys after having determined that they're hard workers and coachable. Essentially, they said Beane drafts guy who will be good players if the coaches do their jobs well. Coaches have to teach Rousseau, and he has to be a good learner. Can you say "Josh Allen"?