Shaw66

Worst play by a player, or worst result? Worst result, of course, would be wide right. That Losman fumble was horrible. Now, you've got Ed Rutkowski, emergency backup QB in the red zone against the Raiders, fumbling as the Bills are about to score the go-ahead touchdown. In terms of worst plays from a game perspective, that one's way up there. On the other hand, in terms of the team's future, it wasn't so bad. The Bills lost, secured the #1 overall pick and drafted OJ. So worst isn't always worst. Then there's Jim Braxton's fumble on Monday night football. Ferguson hits Ahmad Rashad for the go-ahead score inside two minutes. Bills defense holds, Raiders punt. Bills run three plays and run out the clock, right? No. Braxton fumbles, Raiders scoop and score. Worst play ever. Of course, Fergie then took the Bills on a long drive as time was running out and hit Rashad again for the game winner. How about Bills-Cowboys on Monday. The Bills defense absolutely invites the Cowboys to throw two quick sideline passes to get in range for the game-winning field goal on the last play. Absolutely worst end-of-game defensive scheme imaginable. Or, for that matter, the blown coverage on the onside kick immediately before those two passes. That may be the worst three-play stretch in Bills history. The worst play that was one of the best plays in history was Terence McGee stumbling and falling just short of the end zone on the kickoff return that ended the first half against the Saints. Best return ever, and it was useless. How about the Music City Miracle? I swear to God, House, if your posts were available only to Premium Members, everyone would pay extra. This is absolutely classic.

I would not trade Allen for Mahomes, for reasons I've already stated. And Gunner doesn't need anyone to speak for him, but now that I understand what he's saying, let me give it a shot. Over the past three seasons Mahomes probably has played quarterback better than anyone we've ever seen, and it really isn't close. You can compare stats with Brady if you want, and maybe you can find three years where Brady is his equal, but probably not and certainly not Brady's first three years. Peyton maybe - stats don't capture the extraordinary field general qualities that Peyton had. Over three years, though, Mahomes statistically has easily been their equal or surpassed them. On top of that Mahomes has shown the ability to make the extraordinary play - he personally is a game changer. Neither Peyton nor Brady could run, and Mahomes is a serious threat to take off with the ball. Brady and Peyton were extraordinary technicians; Mahomes is a magician. So, Gunner's argument is not about one getting better or another getting worse. His argument is that Mahomes through three years has been in a class by himself. Allen, even last season, was not that guy. Now, you can argue that last point. Statistically they were a push, more or less, neither won the Super Bowl. But despite all the magical things that Allen has been doing, and they've been truly magical, Mahomes is the guy you want on the field with two minutes left needing a score to win. As Gunner says, he's just that good. It's a good argument. I just think the chances are pretty good that Allen will continue to improve, I think Allen's size will give him an advantage later in his career when he has to stand in the pocket more and run less, and despite what Gunner says, I think Mahomes will not be as good when Reid retires. After the 2019 season, I concluded that Allen and Mahomes would be the two greatest QBs of the era, because just like it is obvious that there never has been any QB like Mahomes, there's never been a QB like Allen, either. I think if you asked NFL GMs if they were building a team for the next 15 years and they could have any QB they wanted, there's a good chance that EVERY GM would say Mahomes or Allen. Who else are you going to take? Herbert? Tua? Watson? Mayfield? Lamar? Are you going to bet on Trevor Lawrence over either Mahomes or Allen without having seen him take an NFL snap? Seems to me it's a no brainer. Gunner would take Mahomes, I'd take Allen, but he'd be happy (I think) with Allen and I'd be happy with Mahomes. The other 30 GMs would be guessing.

You've lost track of what the thread is about. If anyone here is saying that Allen is better, today, than Mahomes, that's not me. If I need a QB for one game, today, I'm taking Mahomes. But that isn't the question. The question is which guy would you rather have for the balance of their careers? That's a different question than who's better today. I think Allen will have the better career, for the reasons I've stated.

Fair enough. "I am basing it on football. I have never seen a Quarterback be as consistently excellent as Patrick Mahomes out of the box." That's a reason I can live with, and seeing it, I recall that that's really what you said earlier. He's just been so damn good, right from the start. You're saying he's just a flat out different guy. I can't argue with that. Someone posted somewhere the link to Alex Smith being interviewed by Colin Cowherd. If you haven't seen it, take a look for it. At some point toward the end, Cowherd asks Smith about Mahomes. He said the moment he showed up in his rookie season, he was doing stuff that turned heads. Still, Smith and thing others weren't sure he was for real. Then he was on the scout team during the season, and he was throwing no look passes. Still, they weren't sure. Then the Chiefs had a meaningless final game, Smith sat and Mahomes played. Smith says when they saw him on the field in a real game, they knew. (And Smith knew he needed to find another place to play.)

Thanks. Now I get it, but I just don't buy it. We got off the subject about a bit - the question wasn't who will have the better career, the question was today, which QB would you rather have for your team? You're right, if they play evenly from here on out, Mahomes will have had the better career, because Mahomes first two years playing were much better than Allen's first two years. On the other hand, Allen's first year in the league was much, much better than Mahomes first year, because Mahomes didn't even play. But all of that is neither here nor there. You're saying that on a purely statistical basis, a guy who's been successful all three years he's played in the league is statistically more likely to be successful more often in the future than a guy who's been successful in only one of three years. On a purely statistical basis, that isn't true; that's just a more sophisticated statement of the coin tossing problem. Tossing three heads in a row doesn't make you more likely to toss heads the fourth time than if I throw two tails and then a heads. So your point isn't true in terms of pure statistics. Yes, you say, but I'm not basing it pure statistics; these guys aren't coins, they're football players, and one guy has played better than the other. That's true; I'll give you that. But they play a position where the best often get much better from year to year in their early years, and in the most recent year, the two were a push. So, let's take 2021. Who's more likely to have the best year? Well, I suppose you might say, one might say, a better way to look at the question differently - who's more likely to have the worst year? You'd say Allen, and I think I would agree, because it's not very likely that all of a sudden Mahomes is going to turn into Colt McCoy. That is, Mahomes seems less likely to regress to the mean. As I said, I think I would agree with that. (Put another way, it's more likely that in March 2022, people will be asking "What happened to Allen" than "What happened to Mahomes.") But that's only looking at part of the equation. I'd take Allen, because I think he's more likely to be good on the back end of his career, because he will be better able to play out of the pocket as they both lose mobility. I'd take Allen because he's less likely to have arm trouble, because of his physique. I'd take Allen because sooner or later Mahomes won't have an offensive genius creating and calling the offense. So, what's really going on here is you're basing your argument on what Mahomes has done, and I'm basing mine on what I believe Allen will do. It's all absurdly speculative. Thanks for chatting about it. I'm ready for some real football.

Gunner - If you explained your opinion in more detail, I apologize - either I don't recall it or I didn't see. What I'm curious about is that it's very difficult to say which QB was better in 2020. Allen was slightly behind Mahomes in QBR and passer rating, Allen was the better runner. So, what is it that makes you so sure, because you seem really certain about this, that Mahomes will have the better career by the time they both hang em up? Yes, Mahomes has a ring. But Mahomes also was as bad or worse than Allen in his 2020 playoff loss. Again, I'm really not arguing. I love Mahomes. I just think that if 2020 was a push, it just isn't so clear that Mahomes will be better, as you seem to think it is. Especially when we consider that Mahomes has an additional year's experience at the pro level, and he played in a more competitive college environment. In terms of being truly seasoned pros, Allen is still a year behind Mahomes. So, I don't get why you think it's so clear.

I thought this thread was about what games other than home games. For me, the answer to that question would be KC and maybe the Jets.

Your verb tense is wrong. Mahomes has been the superior QB. That doesn't mean he will be the superior QB in the future. Obviously, Mahomes became excellent more quickly than Allen, but as someone said, it's hard to say who was better in 2020. They had nearly identical passer ratings. The MVP voters preferred Allen. If they both replicate their 2020 performances for the next 15 years, it would be really hard to say which was better. As I've said, I think over the years to come, Allen's size and arm strength will give him the edge. As QBs get older they run less well and have to stay in the pocket more. That's where Allen's body will make the difference.

Thanks. Incredible interview.

Can't argue with that. It's all just opinions. A separate interesting discussion is whether anyone can claim to be the GOAT without at least four or five Lombardis. Interestingly, Mahomes already is at the top of the career passer rating list. Allen will almost certainly never get there.

I, too, would have thought he would show up, but I'm not worried about. McDermott isn't keeping score on such things, at least not yet. He has a football team to run, and besides all the usual things he has to do, he has to manage the ongoing COVID rules. When mandatory training starts, the scorecard comes out. Star not there for mandatory work would be a real issue.

It's all about the future, and none of us knows what's going to happen. I agree that Mahomes has arrived, in the sense that he already is at the point where we can say he will be an excellent QB for the rest of his career. The question is whether Allen will pass him. Again, no one knows for sure, and I gave my reasons why I think Allen will pass him. Your reasoning is just you extrapolate what Mahomes has done so far and conclude that that career will be the greatest. That's fair, but I don't extrapolate. I think when Reid retires, the extrapolation is no longer valid. Mahomes will still be an excellent QB, but he'll need to hitch a ride on another outstanding program. Allen still has to progress, but he's likely set for his career in terms of the program he's playing for. Maybe put another way, I'd predict that Allen will win more Super Bowls than Mahomes, because Allen will have McDermott for his entire career (and have the benefit of McDermott's continuing improvement as a coach), and Mahomes will have Reid only for a half dozen more years, and Reid's not getting any better. All just fun to talk about, because who knows? And I agree with someone who said it's pretty much only Bills fans who think that Allen will be better in the long run. Doesn't mean the Bills fans are wrong - we thought Allen was good two years ago and most of the rest oc the country thought he sucked. Who was wrong about that? With players at the facility, I'm starting to get excited for football to get going again. Can't wait for camp.

I think the important question is when will Andy Reid retire? If Reid is there 15 more years, yes, you may be right. But he's 63, and he doesn't strike me as the kind of guy who's going to do this past age 70. Reid would have to coach past 75 to be Mahomes' only coach. Just my hunch. Mahomes is a QB who's made for Reid, and Reid is a coach made for homes. I don't know that Mahomes will have the same success with the next coach. Allen and McDermott fit, too. They likely will be together for all of Allen's career. McDermott hasn't isn't the genius Reid is, but in time he will have a genius OC, and then we'll see Allen really excel. For example, if Reid were Allen's offensive coordinator with the Bills in 2021 , Allen the current receivers might blow the top off the league. McDermott and his OC will get there, but it will take a few years.

I wouldn't trade. Mahomes has been better for each of the last three seasons. However, I'm trading for the future, not the past, and the question is who will be better on the long run? It's a close question, and I'd bet that on a Chiefs board, the vote comes out the opposite as here. Still, here is why I prefer Allen: 1. Better arm. Yes, Mahomes has a howitzer, but Allen can make all the fundamental throws more easily than Mahomes, because he has better arm strength. All hasn't made the highlight-reel no-look passes that Mahomes is famous for, but Allen already is making the sidearm throws and most other funky throws. But plain all slants, outs, deep balls all are less work for Allen to throw, which means he can make those throws better when he's in trouble, and it probably means he will age better. Big Ben still makes some amazing throws, and it's just because of his size. 2. Running ability. May not be a long-term benefit, but so long as Allen is a true running threat, he has an edge on Mahomes. 3. Ability to avoid pressure in the pocket. Allen's strength in the face of pressure is a clear advantage. Incidental hits don't both him. 4. Coaching and surrounding cast. Part of Mahomes success has been that he has an offensive genius as a coach and he has Kelce and Hill. I think that if the Bills and Chiefs traded QBs, Allen would clearly be better in KC that Mahomes in Buffalo. In other words, I think Allen is a good QB, period. Put him on any team, and he's going to excel. Put Mahomes on a mediocre team and he'll struggle more. 5. I'm a Bills fan.

Thanks, and thanks for the summary. It's been an interesting thread, and you pulled it together nicely. I learned a lot talking to people in these threads. Obviously, McDermott isn't telling us what he's thinking, but we can figure some of it out just by talking about what we see on the field and the kinds of personnel choices he and Beane make. The one-tech discussion and the second corner back discussions, particularly.

It's a nice post, but I'm not giving up the record that easily.

Thanks. And you raise the right objection to what I said, which is that the undersized, quick approach is going to give up those meaty first and second down runs sometimes. And yes, better linebacker play might be part of the solution. But I think Mat68 had the answer to that question, which is that McDermott seems to have decided that he can live with that weakness.

That is a good prediction. He isnt going to the HOF, and some fans here aren't happy unless the Bills have a HOFer at every position. McDermott isnt about stars. He's about role players. Wallace is a solid role player.

That's an interesting take. Thanks.

It's amazing to think back on what it was like. I mean, how hopeless were we? I remember watching Tuel and wondering if there was a way to win with him.

Well, I'm a regular defender of Edmunds here, but I'm not going to defend him in the run game. I think what you say is incorrect in a sense. If you let the o linemen get to the second level, EVERY run defense is toast. EVERY middle linebacker becomes unproductive in the run game when the o linemen get to him. The problem with Edmunds is that he isn't very effective when the d line protects him. He just doesn't fill holes effectively. Either he's late, takes angles that don't work (although he's improved there), and he doesn't hit the ball carrier with authority. I guess I agree, however, that McDermott seems to think he can occupy the o linemen in the run game with the athletic DTs. I mentioned, for example, that I think McDermott is counting on the ability of these guys to pursue, down the line and behind the line. I think he's also planning on being creative on stunts and other games he can play with athletic linemen, including dropping one or two into short zones and blitzing linebackers. We're both saying that McD apparently is planning on playing something of a non-traditional game on the D line. Also, someone gave Philips' history, and suggested that we are ignoring Philips. I think he may be right. I think of Philips like I think of Ford - yes, he has some potential, but I'm not going to count on him until he contributes consistently, and I haven't seen that. However, it's correct that Philips needed last year to recover, and this year he's going to be healthy and have the knowledge of a third-year guy. It's quite possible that McDermott knows a lot more about how much real progress Philips has made than we do, and that could be a plausible explanation as to why the Bills haven't been actively pursuing a DT.

Well, yeah, that's the way you and I have always understood the basics of defense against the run. But I watched the Bills playing last season without a combination of guys who could offer that kind of protection to Edmunds, and I wondered at times whether McDermott has a different philosophy altogether. And then I listen to Beane telling us that both Rousseau and Basham can play tackle, and I wonder again. I wonder whether McDermott's view is that, first and foremost, he's going to play team defense that stops the big play. That would mind that he doesn't mind giving up modest yards some of the time, if the trade-off is that he can shut down everything deep. We know his philosophy is to get pass rush consistently out of his front four, and he sacrifices one quarter of his pass rush when he's playing true one-tech (unless he has essentially a Hall of Fame player at the position. I wonder whether he isn't thinking that on a lot of downs he'd rather have have four guys, all of whom are regular threats to penetrate, guys who not only can get after the passer but also can come down the line of scrimmage to take down backs going the other way. The videos show Basham and Rousseau making plays like that. I don't know any of this for sure. It's all pure speculation, but I find it curious, as do many posters here, that Beane has done nothing significant to get anyone into camp beyond Star and Harry. It's particularly curious given that Star is a question mark until he shows up and shows that he isn't and that Harry, although he had his moments last season, hasn't shown he's an answer. It all makes me think that McDermott and Frazier are going in a different direction than traditional football theory would suggest. That is, it may be that McDermott thinks that he knows some things that we don't. I agree with that. First downs and obvious run situations. A situational player. But that still suggests that McDermott and Frazier are willing to sacrifice the bulk that a traditional one-tech guy would have, to take the risk that on second and third down teams will attack the relatively small and weak defensive front, and to gamble that quickness and scheming can make up for the fact that they don't have personnel on the field that can dominate the center of the line physically.

It does look that way. I'm no DT expert, but seems like Star is the only true one-tech. Even Philips seems more like a hybrid. It says McD isn't afraid to play with four guys who are quick and smart, even if they're undersized for the traditional role of a one tech. We'll see as the summer goes on.

No argument - gotcha. I just like talking about this stuff. I think what I said remains true - that McBeane don't feel that corner is an area of need. Remember that Beane has said free agency is to fill holes, the draft is to acquire talent. He drafts, especially in the early rounds, for BPA, not need. Where have they been active in free agency? As I said, OL, DL and receiver. Beane's strategy obviously is to sign a lot of guys in areas of need and let them compete to make the squad and for playing time. He does that by acquiring journeymen, not stars. Beasley was a high-end journeyman, Brown is a mid-level journeyman - both were improvements over what the Bills had, but we were dreaming if we thought the Bills were going to get any more of them in 2019 than they did. Sanders is a high-end journeyman at this point in his career. Diggs was a draft choice - BPA. OL and DL, journeymen, over and over again. He did it this year with kick returner - he had a need and he went after a late round pick and a free agent to fight it out with McKenzie. That's how Beane meets the roster needs of the team - bring in marginal guys and let them compete. It's very clear. In the draft, Beane goes after talent in the front end of the draft, pure talent. In the back end, he goes after talent at positions of need. The fact that he grabbed two offensive linemen in the lower rounds and only one corner, says it again: McBeane don't think they have a problem at corner. We, you, me, plenty of others may think they do have a problem, but they don't. Two years ago, Beane went after Vontae Davis. That suggested to me that he thought he had a need at corner. Last year it was Norman, whom I considered to be a lower-probability starter than Davis. That suggested to me that Beane felt the need was less urgent. This year he chased no one in free agency, and picked one late-round corner in the draft. That all says to me McBeane don't see corner as a position of significant need.

Well, at least if you believe the announcers, defenders are influenced all the time by the QB's eyes. But I didn't see Mahomes moving Edmunds into empty space. I saw Edmunds with two guys in his zone moving in different directions. Thanks for this comment, and the one about Levi. Maybe we'll see Jackson platooning there this season. Still, the Bills aren't showing any great urgency in getting a better corner onto the roster. Compare the aggressiveness with which Beane pursued wideouts, offensive linemen, and defensive lineman in the past two seasons with what he's done about corner backs. That says to me that they don't see it as a position of need.