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THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Taking a Look at 2021
Shaw66 replied to Shaw66's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Contrary to what I suggest, but I think there's some truth in what you say. Bills probably already have the two replacement DEs, so losing three and needing to replace only one means there should indeed be opportunities to acquire another impact player. I will say, however, that I don't think that's how McBeane plan. Their plan is not to get good when they can get the right player. The plan is to get good now, stay good, and get better year after year with learning and acquisitions in the ordinary course. -
THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Taking a Look at 2021
Shaw66 replied to Shaw66's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Yeah, Deek, I hear you. After years and years of excitement about a Mario, a Dareus, a Spiller, and the endless debates about Taylor and EJ and Fitz, this off-season was like a balloon that never inflated enough to have the air let out of it. But there was an important point to what I wrote, a point I talk about a lot. I think that in the NFL, coaching is more important than talent, and I think the Bills 2021 off-season demonstrates the McDermott and Beane think so, too. Beane was all about improving talent wherever he could, but not because the talent he already had wasn't good enough. He wasn't filling holes, and he wasn't solving problems for McDermott. The league creates opportunities to get better players, and Beane certainly was going to take advantage of the opportunity. So he did, with some nice but unspectacular free agent deals, and by drafting players with upside when his turn came. The off-season tells us that McDermott and Beane didn't think they needed to add a special talent to win. They didn't need to trade again to get someone like Diggs. They didn't need to trade up in the draft. Instead, Beane and McDermott believe in the process, in the continuous improvement of the individual players and the team. They knew the day after the loss to KC that they would be better in 2021, better in important ways. The new talent Beane was able to bring in just helps. -
THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Taking a Look at 2021
Shaw66 replied to Shaw66's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Hi Thurm - thanks for your usual thoughtful comments. I didn't know exactly how to word the Trubisky competition thing. I don't think, and I thought I was clear, that Trubisky has a snowball's chance of being the starting QB. However, he's a serious NFL-level talent, and I'm quite sure there will be times in camp when he makes plays that turn heads. He'll make some excellent escapes from the pocket, and he'll make some big-time throws. Allen will see those, and he'll know that this is a different guy than Barkley or Fromm. And in the back of his head, he may feel a little push. Up until now, the only competition Allen had was in his head - trying imagine how Mahomes or Rodgers would do something if they were in camp. This summer he's going to have a real NFL starter standing next to him, with a real NFL arm, and Allen won't have to imagine anything. He'll know that his job is to be better than the guy standing right there. As for Edmunds, I don't disagree with what you say. And Niagara Bill mischaracterized what I said. I didn't say that the Bills need Edmunds to be a superstar for the Bills to succeed. I was writing about continuous improvement, the methodology McDermott uses, and I was commenting on the guys whose improvement is most important. Your right that coming out of college Edmunds wasn't a Taylor or a Watt or an Urlacher or a Kuechly. He was highly regarded, but top 10 in the draft is the real indication that the coaches and scouts think the guy is special. Teams didn't value Edmunds that highly. However, his size and speed make him special in the defense that McDermott likes to play. He has a chance to be great, because he has those attributes and he plays a position where he can be a dominant force. He can be to the defense what Allen is to the offense, but not in exactly the same way. Edmunds has going to take the team on his back and carry them to victory. But if he plays the way he could play, he will make almost every other guy on the defense better. The better Edmunds plays, the better all the linebackers and DBs will be. Even the dline will be better, if they know have a human vacuum cleaner back there, a guy who stops the ball carrier the line misses. Like, as you say, Keuchly. McDermott is about continuous improvement, and Edmunds gets no pass on that. The Bills coaches no doubt are going to be setting ambitious goals for Edmunds, ambitious because he's good enough to accomplish them. So as I said, I can agree that he may never be dominant like those others, but I don't think it's unreasonable for the Bills to expect him to become a dominant playmaker in the middle of the defense. I'm just guessing, but I think many of us have misjudged what the Beasley thing was and is all about. As time has gone by, and as no other shoes have dropped, I'm increasingly getting the impression that Beasley has strong feelings about what people can tell him to do, and he got frustrated with what he was hearing. He didn't say he would quit under the current rules, but he said he had made enough money that he could afford to quit - those are two different things. He wasn't announcing that there was a rule that he would not comply with. I think it was all more general than that. And I think it's less of a deal when I see that there are two teams with less than 50% vaccinated (not the Bills), and it sounds like plenty of others are under 75%. So, the Bills aren't going to be operating under tougher restrictions than many other teams, and there will be pressure on the league and the union for those restrictions to be eased. I doubt under those circumstances that Beasley is going to be so unhappy that he will retire, or that any of this will be a distraction. McDermott managed COVID last season; this season will be easier, not tougher. Do I prefer that players just comply and keep their mouths shut about this? Yes, because it's simpler if everyone is vaccinated and the press eats this stuff up, but McDermott is going to support his player, his player will feel the support and see that he can fit into the Bills' plans without being asked to do anything significant he doesn't want. Anyway, thanks for your comments. -
THE ROCKPILE REVIEW - Taking a Look at 2021
Shaw66 replied to Shaw66's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Sorry about the name player thing. Plug in "grab" and you will get the meaning. I used a word that some people might use to refer to, uh, well, use your imagination. -
As training camp approaches, there’s not much to say about a team that went 13-3 with two playoff wins last season. Not much to say except to ask, “Can they do more this season?” It’s been a long time since Bills fans have been asking that question about their team – almost 30 years. Back then, season after season, the Bills were winning in unprecedented fashion, going undefeated in the playoffs year after year for four consecutive seasons, but never winning the final game. Bills fans were asking, “Can they win just one more game?” The Bills aren’t there yet. They’re close, but the question still is “can they do more?” During the off-season, Bills fans often answered that question with another question: “What personnel changes can the Bills make to get better?” They put aside the comment that Sean McDermott made on more than one occasion to the effect that he was ready to play the 2021 season with the roster that didn’t go quite far enough in 2020. In other words, he said it’s about the process, not about the players. And so it was that in the off-season, the Bills stayed true to their process and made about as few personnel changes as we’ve seen in decades. They re-signed or extended a few key players, like Milano, Williams, and Feliciano, they unloaded one key player – John Brown – and replaced him with Emmanuel Sanders, who may be an upgrade for a year or two. Other than that, the Bills signed the usual collection of free agents who have some potential to shore up the lines, help out the special teams, or complement the running game. They look like good signings, but they weren’t the kind of acquisitions that generate headlines. After the initial rush to acquire players in free agency, the Bills conducted the draft with about as little fanfare as possible. They didn’t trade a first-round pick for an emerging star, as they did last season to acquire Diggs. They didn’t trade up to ***** a name player. They chose solid football players, unproven but with upside. Big linemen, a fast, small receiver, and a collection of defensive backs. Some may contribute in 2021, some may emerge in another year or two, and some will not make it. Is there an instant starter among the draftees? The best prospects are Greg Rousseau, simply because he seems to be an unusual talent, or Boogie Basham, simply because he seems to bring all the fundamentals. Spencer Brown, Jack Anderson, and Tommy Doyle all bring the kind of size and talent to the team that can make an impact but absent injuries, it’s a lot to expect that any of them can compete their way into a starting job as a rookie. It’s about the process. It’s about everyone in the organization, particularly coaches and players, continuing to do all the things they learned last season and learning other things to make themselves better and make the team better. With that as the objective, it’s about teaching everyone new to the team how to do what the Bills did in 2020 while also teaching them the things the veterans are learning for 2021. The process is about competing, about knowing, as Jerry Hughes certainly knows, that his job is to teach all he can to Rousseau and Basham and Epenesa so that they can compete for and eventually take his job. It’s about taking every rep in practice like it’s playoff preparation, knowing that constant commitment to competing on the field makes everyone stronger. Remarkably, Brandon Beane even went for competition at the one position where no one thought competition was possible – quarterback. In Mitch Trubisky, Beane added a player who plays the same game Allen does – throw, run, attack the entire field, although Trubisky does none of it like Allen can. Still, Trubisky was a number two pick overall, and he’s had plenty of moments where he’s looked like a viable starter. In addition to creating something that at least looks like competition for Allen, the move was a brilliant upgrade at backup QB. Trubisky clearly brings more physical talent to the team than Barkley offered, and he brings the experience that Fromm sorely lacks. Trubisky is almost a dream backup in Buffalo, even if only for one season, as most observers suspect. Trubisky will want to start, and there’s virtually no chance he will win a QB competition with Allen. In the meantime, however, he will have given the Bills another year to decide how strongly they feel about Fromm as a backup. The process is about continuous improvement, about everyone being better at their job than a year ago. Everyone. It’s about Hyde and Poyer being a better tandem than they were in 2020. It’s about Tre’Davious White being better. It’s about Epenesa, Phillips, Oliver, Dawkins, Ford, Moss, Singletary raising the level of their games, and about becoming leaders on the team and not just prospects. Most of all, it’s about Josh Allen’s and Tremaine Edmunds’ improvement. Allen and Edmunds have physical talents that make them capable of being truly transcendent players in the NFL, the kind of players who define the position for their era. Allen showed in 2020 that he can be that kind of player. Still, Josh Allen needs to be better in 2021. Ironically for Allen, being better may mean doing less, at least in terms of stats. Better for Allen is running less. Better for Allen is reading defenses at another level, and making the best decisions – decisions that might pull his personal stats down a bit but push wins up a bit. Better is by being an even better leader. Edmunds hasn’t had his breakout season, and the clock is running. Having transcendent physical ability and determination isn’t enough unless it translates into on-field excellence. This is a guy who, physically, could dominate play the way a Lawrence Taylor, a J.J. Watt, a Brian Urlacher, or a Luke Kuechly could. To be dominant, Edmunds must raise his game another level, or two or three levels, and he and the Bills are looking for that kind of improvement. The upside on both sides of the ball is clear. The defensive line is poised to be a force, with Star Lotulelei returning, Oliver and Phillips improving, Hughes, Addison, Epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham all contributing, and with the potential for one or another role player to emerge from camp. Starting linebacking is fine for now, and could be outstanding if Edmunds takes that next step. Behind them is some young and unproven talent. And the defensive backfield is solid and has young talent like Dane Jackson, Jaquan Johnson, and Siran Neal continuing to grow into good depth. Offensive improvement starts with the line, where the entire unit returns, having learned the lessons of 2020 and prepared to improve, particularly in the running game. It’s hard to ignore the talent across the front line, or their commitment to the game. This is a group that WANTS to run the ball in 2021 and WANTS to protect Allen. Cody Ford will return, intending to begin to make the contribution he’s capable of, and the three drafted rookies will come to camp intending to win starting jobs. The offensive line should take a big step this season, and if one of the rookies should prove to be good enough and win a starting job, so much the better. Singletary and Moss, of course, will be looking to redeem themselves, to show that the promise both have flashed can become a consistent on-field reality. Matt Breida, Beane’s other great backup addition, has something to prove. With improved offensive line play, at least one of the three should emerge is a true feature backup. Two would be even better. Diggs and Beasley can be counted on being Diggs and Beasley. Diggs will work to get better, and Beasley will be focused on football and not distracted by the COVID talk. It’s hard to imagine Beasley being distracted in practice or the games. Sanders is a bit of a risk, but he’s likely to be able flash some big play ability in a complementary role. Gabriel Davis should only get better. Isaiah McKenzie should continue to contribute, unless rookie Marquez Stevenson lights up training camp with unique skills that win him the role as return man and gadget player. Tight end is the only positional question that doesn’t have a good answer. Maybe Knox can become truly consistent, catching the ball, blocking, and avoiding mistakes. He has shown some big-play capability, but he hasn’t shown that he is the answer. If somehow Knox can step up his play and become a consistent threat, his importance to the offense would exceed his actual stats. Will each and every prayer for improvement be answered? No. It never works that way. Some players simply plateau, and there are injuries. Age takes it toll, sometimes unexpectedly. But the process builds a stronger and stronger team, year after year, by challenging everyone to take steps forward, individually and as a team. If the process really works, the 2021 Bills could dominate the league, with the best QB leading the best offense and with a big, aggressive defense, that meshes youth and experience in a confusing, multi-faceted machine. What about Kansas City? Sure, they’ve got plenty of offense and a special defense, but the Bills have the potential to close the gaps, which aren’t big, on both sides of the ball and surpass the Chiefs. The Bills could be that good. Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane have said for years that their goal is to build a team that can compete consistently, year after year, for championships. Last season, sooner than many people expected, myself included, they competed. Lost, eventually, but competed. In 2021, the Bills should be better. The process at work.
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I try not to fret too much about opportunities the Bills missed, so long as it isn't happening all the time. Sometimes it's just a numbers game, and there's no room for a guy the Bills like. Same with the draft. Sure, you can always look at the draft and thing "too bad the Bills didn't take Ngata or Mahomes or Watt," but so long as the Bills are drafting good football players, the fact that they missed on someone doesn't trouble me too much. Of course, for many years, the Bills WEREN'T drafting good football players but fortunately, those days seem to be behind us. There are a lot of fans of other teams asking why THEIR team didn't draft Milano or White. And as I said, fans of five teams seriously asking why their team didn't draft Allen.
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The most amazing part of the 2017 draft was not that we took the right Josh. The most amazing part, with 20-20 hindsight is that Cleveland took Mayfield. Giants, needing a QB, took a running back. Jets took Darnold. Broncos, needing a QB, took a defensive end. Colts, needing a QB but didn't no it, took a guard. Leaving Allen for the Bills. Six picks before the Bills selected, five teams could have taken Allen and didn't.
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To you and Gunner - I'd guess that top-20 is a little low, but the whole point is that where they rank in some sort of poll where the participants are evaluating individual play isn't really relevant so far as McDermott and the Bills are concerned. If there were a way to do it, I'd like to see a ranking of NFL safeties in these categories: Tackling efficiency (or, to put it another way, missed tackles), assignment execution (percentage of plays where the guy executed his assignment), post-snap decision making (percentage of plays where, faced with an instantaneous decision, the guy adjusted to respond to what the offense is doing and what the other defenders are doing). Those are the categories where Poyer and Hyde shine, and on top of that, they play off each other well, in that each one trusts the other one to react in the right ways. They're called safeties for a reason, and the reason is that they are the last line of defense, their job is to keep the team safe. In that role, those two together are easily top 10, probably top 5. I've had the same feeling about him, but sometimes I wonder if I get swayed by the percentage of big plays a guy makes. Poyer was much more visible in that department last season for sure. But I don't see Hyde missing tackles or out of position or blowing assignments. All those years of watching Jim Leonard convinced me that speed and spectacular plays are not what playing safety is about, and I think that even if Hyde is a bit past his prime physically, his brain power may carry him for a few more seasons. There was a game late last season, late in the game, when the Bills had him back returning a punt. He's a valuable guy. And I don't think you're saying anything else. Happy to have him.
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Diggs #3 overall WR entering 2021 according to ESPN
Shaw66 replied to BruceVilanch's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Both good examples. Don't know what Donald is like in practice, but he raises the team. -
Diggs #3 overall WR entering 2021 according to ESPN
Shaw66 replied to BruceVilanch's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
His standards of practice and play and his overall talent lifted the entire offense. That's huge praise for Diggs. Think about that. How many players, other than quarterbacks, can you say that about? JJ Watt, maybe. Who else? They're saying he combines talent and work ethic at the highest levels, and he makes everyone else better. Some have said, and it's probably true, that some, maybe a big piece, of Allen's success last season was attributable to Diggs. Allen had a receiver he always could count on, who always ran the route and always caught the ball. That's a great luxury for a young QB. -
Still, no bail is ridiculous. He has a constitutional right to reasonable bail, and unless there are some really unusual circumstances, he isn't likely to flee the country or go on some rampage killing people. Personally, I've never liked the guy. The media made him their darling because he was articulate and funny, but the truth is that what he a loud mouth with an inflated sense of his own importance. There's a reason he didn't stay in Seattle, and the reason is that he's difficult to deal with. I mean, if you were running a football team, and you were evaluating just on-field football skill, why wouldn't you want to keep a Richard Sherman? Still, he shouldn't be in jail.
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Well, sure, that's the list of possibilities. But as I suggested, I think the question has to be answered in terms of who you would take if you could have anyone, and the question is three parts: for one game, for the 2021 season, and if you're building a team for the future. As I said, it's a stretch to take several of these guys over Allen. Dak is a stretch, but at least I can see the resume argument, and at his best, Dak has been superb. However, over their last 20-30 games, Dak's best hasn't md Allen's. Baker, you just have to make up arguments; the only way one can prefer Baker is if you compare his 10 best games to Allen's 10 worst. Cousins, too. It would be pure fiction to argue Cousins is better for a game, a season, or a career. Ryan? What Ryan looked like he was 6 or 7 years ago? Okay. But Ryan for the past five years? No. As for Jackson, everyone knows that we're at the end of the Lamar Jackson era.
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Well, I agree that's true about the press. But when we're talking about the opinions of coaches and GMs, I disagree. They study more film in a month than any of us watches in years. I say "study" and "watches" deliberately; they not only look at a lot more film, they actually understand what they're looking at. Do some of them still have biases? Of course, but even many of those biases are based on legitimate opinions they've developed watching these guys play. So, I agree with others when I see someone ranked Allen 9th. That's a coach or scout or GM saying he would take eight guys over Allen. I'm hard pressed to see how that could be, whether it's a guy you, want for one game, one season, or one career. Brady, Rodgers, Mahomes, okay. Herbert is a stretch. Watson is a stretch. Every other guy is a stretch. You have to stretch on FIVE guys to conclude Allen is ninth. I don't get that.
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I see in Edmunds all the shortcomings others here see in him - doesn't fill gaps, isn't a big hitter, plays the ball poorly on pass defense, etc., etc., but then I ask myself why he is playing every down. There is only one answer, and that is that McDermott and Frazier see him making a big contribution. So, I get it when some coach says that he's a nightmare to plan for. I think there are things going on on the field that most fans, including me, don't see or understand. In Edmunds' case, I've speculated before that it's the combination of his size and speed, that he simply covers more territory on pass defense because he is a step faster and an arm-length longer that other guys playing the middle of a complicated zone-based defense. He gets deep faster, he gets to the sideline faster, he closes on running backs faster than most linebackers. Am I saying he's a great run stopper? No. He still misreads running plays sometimes, and he isn't a great tackler. But I think what coaches see and we don't is that he gets into the vicinity of the play better and more often than most linebackers. He clogs the middle passing lanes better than most linebackers, because he's faster, taller, and longer. He's not a standout, highlight-reel star. I think what he is is a nearly perfect guy to put in the middle of a complex team defense.
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Slot Recievers - McKenzie / Cole
Shaw66 replied to CorkScrewHill's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Here it is. https://www.rochesterfirst.com/news/mcdermott-spoke-with-beasley-following-twitter-rant-confident-players-will-make-good-decisions/ -
Slot Recievers - McKenzie / Cole
Shaw66 replied to CorkScrewHill's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
Of course, but consider the competition. McKenzie's been in the league for four seasons. His best season, he caught 30 passes. He wasn't good enough to win starting time from Beasley with a fractured leg. Davis needed about half of a training camp to move ahead of McKenzie on the depth chart. McKenzie simply isn't much of a receiving threat. Hodgins doesn't have to show a lot be better. He's clearly a gamble. At some point he's just not going to be able to do it any longer, and that point could be any day now. But he's savvy and tough, and even with some diminishing physical skills, he may be able to do more for Allen than Brown did. He is one smart receiver. -
Yes, it is kind of amazing that someone ranked Allen 9th. What 8 QBs are you taking ahead of him, either for one game, for one season, or for the next ten seasons. Stanky, I have a theory about the safeties. I don't know whether either of them are top 10 - there are 64 starting safeties in the league, so top 10 is pretty elite. And Poyer and Hyde aren't glamour guys. The announcers rarely yack about them, because they aren't flashy like the honey badger or Buddha Baker or guys like that. They don't have a high quotient of sensation plays. They also aren't big hitters. So, it makes some sense to me that others got named ahead of them. The value of Poyer and Hyde is how they understand the system and how they play together. They are very valuable to the Bills, because they are so solid as a deep tandem, always where they need to be to be. They blitz well and they attack the run well, but that too is evidence of solid play, not highlight reel play. They're quietly excellent.
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Slot Recievers - McKenzie / Cole
Shaw66 replied to CorkScrewHill's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
That's where I disagree. Hodgins already showed promise, and it's easy to see him as a better downfield receiver than McKenzie. All that has to happen is Stevenson has to win the punt return job. If he does, he certainly can run the jet sweep. What McKenzie has going for him is experience. He knows how to make all the necessary reads, he knows the audibles, he knows the blocking assignments - all better than I'd expect Stevenson can this season. Still, I wouldn't call it a longshot. Veterans get cut every year. -
Slot Recievers - McKenzie / Cole
Shaw66 replied to CorkScrewHill's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
As I said above, I wouldn't be so sure. It's all about competition. He fought his way onto the roster a few years ago, and he could lose his spot the same way. If Beasley plays, with Sanders, Davis, and Diggs, there are only two or three wideout spots left. If Stevenson wins the punt return job and can run jet sweeps, McKenzie could be in trouble - not because he isn't good enough, but because someone else looks better. -
Slot Recievers - McKenzie / Cole
Shaw66 replied to CorkScrewHill's topic in The Stadium Wall Archives
I'm not the most up to date, but I don't recall seeing anything about Cole. My eyes glaze over with the press trying to make news of the COVID stuff. I found it hard to understand what Beasley was saying with his tweets that caused the uproar in the first place. Still, I expect he'll be on the roster and playing in September, either vaccinated or living with whatever COVID restrictions there are.
