Shaw66

I don't think the success of the run game in 2021 is about the running backs. It's about the offensive line. Some combination of running backs will step up. Each of Singletary and Moss and Breida is talented enough to be a 1000-yard runner. The problems last season were driven primarily by the offensive line's failures. The didn't create many nice holes to run through, and the zone blocking schemes were ineffective because they didn't get the push they needed. The result was that the running backs had a half dozen or more plays per game where first contact as at the line of scrimmage instead of five-yards downfield. That's 30 or more yards per game, and that's the difference between 107 yards per game, 20th in the league, and 137 yards per game, or 8th in the league. How many times were Singletary and Moss - and Allen, for that matter - stuffed on the line of scrimmage last season? It's the line, not the backs.

I can see that.

Actually, I think it's the opposite. I could be wrong. I think Basham is like Epenesa, although maybe better. He's a guy with good characteristics who should grow into a solid player. He's a guy who has to grow into the NFL. Rousseau is a unique talent. Yes, he has a lot to learn, but he brings things that will be difficult for some teams to deal with when they first see him. Some guys flash in the league early, like Jevon Kearse, whose best year was his rookie year, and his sacks and tackles for loss declined in each of the next two seasons. Am I sure Rousseau will be like Kearse? No. And he won't have a rookie year like Kearse did. But I think by mid-season of his rookie year, he'll know his assignments and he'll get on the field, and I think teams won't know how to handle him. Will the league catch up with him? Maybe, but I don't think so. I think he'll continue to get stronger and smarter, and his game will evolve. That's where he'll be different from Kearse. I think he'll be a big-time impact player in three to four seasons. My guess: Basham might see the field sooner in 2021, but Rousseau will have more impact. My vision: For the next ten years, offensive line coaches will be saying "what are we going to do to stop Rousseau? And that damn Basham is continual nuisance." Now, I don't want anyone to get all bent out of shape, because I'm not saying one is the same as the other, but I think it will be in some ways like when offensive line coaches used to say, "what are we going to do to stop Smith? And that damn Hansen is a continual nuisance."

Yes, and no pass rushers. Not by choice - would have been a situation where both guys were gone. I suppose that if Rousseau had gone at 28, Beane would have traded down out of the first and then used the extra capital to trade up in the second to be sure he didn't miss out on Basham. Have any teams used that alignment much in the past few years?

I listened to some of the call with Beane, Schoen and whoever with season ticket holders. He said an interesting thing about the first round, including the corner back decision. He actually said something like all of the guys on whom they had a first round grade were gone after the first 12 or 15 picks, except Rousseau. Jaycee Horne and Surtain were the two CBs who went that high. So, they were just waiting to see if Rousseau fell. Now, maybe there was another name in there, but the cupboard was essentially bare half way through the first round. He also said, I think, that when they were on the clock in the first round, a team called wanting to trade up into the first, but the Bills were taking the guy they had with a first-round grade. If Rousseau hadn't been there, they would have been trading out of the first round. He said in a different interview that they had a trade in place for their second round pick but declined it because Basham fell to them. It's interesting because I used to wonder about those drafts when Belichick kept trading back. The Bills were one player away from trading back in the first, and one player away from trading back in the second. The Bills could have been sitting with something like three thirds and an extra second next year.

I think is a pretty fair, if overly broad, statement. They grade each player and rank them, and in the first couple of rounds, they take the guy they graded highest, regardless of whether any one thinks the Bills "need" someone at that position. Clearly, that was the case with Basham. No reasonable person would think that the Bills "needed" a defensive end with Hughes, Addison, Epenesa, and Rousseau on board. The Basham pick had nothing to do with short-term improvement, what you say you wanted. And that was exactly my point - Beane has said over and over again that he does not use the early round draft picks for "need," or for "short-term-improvement." So, I get that people may criticize this or other drafts for failing to fill "needs" in the early rounds, but from my point of view of that's a pointless complaint. We all know that's not how Beane is going to operate. It's the equivalent of complaining that the Bills team colors should be orange and black - they aren't, and there's nothing to be done about it. As for whether Beane's is the right strategy, I think it is. I say this often - the game is more about coaching and less about talent than many fans think. McBeane's strategy is acquire the best talent in the aggregate and let the coaches figure out how to deploy it. Your strategy is to have the best talent possible at each position. Well, so long as his corner backs, for example, can play up to some standard, McDermott doesn't care all that much how high over that standard any particular corner back is. Sure, he wants the best players he can get at the position, but if the guys he has are good enough, he knows that the success or failure of the defense will ride on how well the coaches scheme, teach the scheme, and get the players to execute that scheme. The execution of the scheme depends less on talent and more on brains and determination than most fans think. In other words, McBeane care about having impact players, but where they have those impact players in the lineup is less important than we the fans tend to think. I do think you're correct, however, in that the definition of BPA is broader than most people (including me, and that's why I find your post informative) generally think and that position and need enter into that ranking. No matter how talented the guy is, a punter is not going to be the BPA because of his position, and no matter how talented the guy is, a QB is not going to be the BPA for the Bills because of lack of need. But as I just said, Basham's position on the Bills' big board did not change after the Rousseau pick. His position vis a vis other players on the board didn't change. Need may have been a factor in determining his rank on the board, but his rank didn't change.

That's the question. I think he is Feliano II, and that's fine with me.

Pardon me for being blunt about it, but you have to realize that Beane takes the best player available in the early rounds. He isn't looking his roster. (Now, of course, if the BPA is a QB, Beane's not taking him.) If the BPA at 30 had been a corner, Beane would have taken him and probably hoped that one of Rousseau or Basham fell to him in the second round. He may even have tried to trade up. But Beane said that the corners they liked always were gone before their pick came. What Beane said was that Rousseau was his BPA at 30 - and happily filled a need, and Basham was a clear BPA in the next round, and he plays a "premium position." In essence, he said maybe you can have too many good punters, but you can't have too many good defensive ends. I hear what you're saying about Epenesa and all, and the answer is that McDermott and Beane don't care. They want the best talent they can get, and they'll figure out what to do with it. Who knows what's going to happen? Maybe Rousseau turns into a tackle and they trade Oliver. Or they trade Epenesa. Or one of them has a career-altering injury. McBeane aren't concerned about that today (even though it confuses you and me). They just aren't. Take the best players you can get and figure out what to do with them later.

I hope Johnson makes it for a different reason. He said when the Bills drafted him that when he started playing Pee Wee ball, his father told him that all he had to do is run as fast as he could and run into the kid with ball. Next year, his father told him to do the same thing. That's all his father ever taught, hit the guy with the ball as hard as you can. When he got to high school, he was a heat-seeking missile who nothing about how to play football, just how to blow up ball carriers! That's when he started first to take seriously what his coaches were telling him about the nuances of the game. Such a cool story. I hope he's learning the game the way McDermott wants him to play it.

Thanks. I agree about all of this. Incredible that his draft profile nailed it like that. Perfect. And I agree about last season. He made plays as a receiver I hadn't seen in earlier seasons. And your comments about his workouts dovetail with main. How does a guy with those natural skills not learn the things he needs to do with the natural skills to become a weapon? He may be trying and just can't do it. Or maybe he isn't getting the right advice. I mean, someone told Spencer Brown to work out with Joe Staley; what's McKenzie doing. A bit out of left field, but related. I heard JJ Redick interviewed one time. He said when he was in high school, he didn't think he was going to play in college, and then he became a bigtime recruit. Then, in his junior year in college he was looking at business schools, because he thought his career was over, and then the NBA called. When he made it as a rookie, he surprised himself. During his rookie season, he sought out a current or former veteran and asked him what Redick needed to do to stay in the league. The guy said work out every off season, but don't just work out. Learn to do something knew every off-season, something you can incorporate into your game that will make you a better and different player. Redick said in the interview that that is exactly what he's done. He's added skills, year after year. It would be great if McKenzie took another step this season.

Right. I think in his mind, Beane got great value twice. I followed the draft this year even less than in previous years, so I don't know anything about the DEs taken in the first round, but I think this: If your team needs to improve - like you're trying to get better so you can get to the playoffs, or if your team is seriously in need of a DE for some other reason, you're not jumping at the chance to take Rousseau, because he's a bigger gamble than some other guys on the board. It's not clear exactly what Rousseau is - he has great upside, but what exactly is he? There are some guys who are more plug-and-play ready, you know what you're getting. And Basham is in the discussion with those guys in terms of plug-and-play, but he's maybe a notch below them. Beane has a more solid roster than most teams, so when Rousseau falls to him, he's pumped, because he has the luxury of a solid roster and of already being a solid playoff team. His team can afford to take some time figuring out what Rousseau is. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder - I might see Watt, someone else might see Mario Williams, Calais Campbell's been mentioned, JPP, whatever. What Beane things he's getting is one of those, or someone at that level, and that's a good thing. Then Basham comes along and yes, Beane's ready to trade out of the second round until Basham keeps dropping. Beane didn't take Basham because he thinks Rousseau will bust; he took him because he was too good to pass up. If he ends up with two starting defensive ends three years from now, well, that's a nice problem to have.

Great posts about the receivers, Hap. McKenzie has never impressed me as a receiving threat (it baffles me how he and Roberts can return the kicks the way they do and can't learn to be better receivers), and the point about McKenzie not taking over when Cole was injured is telling. I'm sure McDermott is hoping Stevenson will be immediate competition for Isaiah - the Bills could use some flash, especially since Brown is gone, and I don't think McKenzie is the guy.

He's relentless like Watt. Just keeps coming. He follows the ball like Watt - I think it's interesting how he gets his hands on the blocker but keeps his head high and his body and especially his feet away from the blocker, so when he sees the play developing he can disengage. When he disengages, he then makes athletic plays, with his body and especially his hands. When he's playing inside he still seems to slip blocks like Watt does. I'm not saying they're the same guy and I'm not saying that he'll be the impact player Watt is/was. Just saying I similarities in style. And, again, I think he's going to be a somewhat different player when he grows into his body.

I compared him the other day to JJ Watt. I just think his body is going to develop into something quite different from what we see today, and I think his style of play will evolve. I agree, though - I don't see Mario Williams.

I dont think we can tell what he will become. 20-25 pounds will make him a different man.

I just jumped back into this thread, and seeing your post reminded me of something I thought about a few months ago and again this week. It's not my idea - I heard someone else say it. I don't criticize McDermott often, but this point about the style of defense continues to eat at me. You describe the defensive style well, and why Edmunds is a good fit for it. The style absolutely demands that you have very good pass rush out of your front four, something McDermott admits. Otherwise, you get picked apart by the good QBs. The Bills haven't had that pass rush - in, fact, it's hard to have consistently good pass rush from four guys, season after season. But even if you assume the Bills will get there, and this draft should help, there's a more fundamental problem that McDermott should see, and that is one of his other favorite subjects - complementary football. The team works best when what the offense does meshes well with what the defense does. Well, whether McDermott wants to admit it or not, I think his defensive style doesn't mesh with the offense. With Josh Allen, you're going to have a big-play, high-scoring offense. No point in making Josh a game manager - he's a threat to score from any place on the field. Offensively, the Bills should have one primary objective - be explosive. More speed, more talent, better protection, because if you have that, Josh will score the football. What does that tell you about the defense? The defense's job is to get the ball to Josh as soon as possible, because good things happen when Josh has the ball. That means the bend-don't-break containment style defense that McDermott runs is the wrong style. The right style is to be a brutal, attacking defense, high-risk, high-reward, because that style defense gets the ball back to Josh the fastest. Yes, sometimes it gives up easy scores, but that still gets the ball back to Josh. But it also gets takeaways, which are great for the offense, and sacks, which lead to punts, which also are great for Josh. McDermott's defense tends to slow the game down, and I don't think that's good for the Bills. And that's exactly the problem with Edmunds. If you're playing high-risk, high-reward defense, you need an attacking middle linebacker, someone who's exploding into gaps, who's a productive blitzer, a guy making a lot of tackles. You don't need a guy who's dropping deep, keeping everything in front of him and then closing once the play has largely unfolded. And I guess that's the point I've been making - the Bills like Edmunds because he's the right guy for the defense as McDermott imagines it. The real question is whether the defense that McDermott imagines is the right defense for the Bills.

Sometimes he says some really insightful things, lately particularly, so as between engaging him and ignoring him, I thought I'd try engaging.

I agree with you about Sanders. He's a sneaky deep threat. Interesting comment about the Bills and separation. I suppose it's true for all teams, but you're right. Separation is the difference between Brown and Sanders. Brown didn't create separation as much as he was good at taking advantage of opportunities the defense presented. Sanders is a smarter route runner than that.

I suspected I'd get this argument, and I thank you for making it. It's not a point worth arguing about, and I hear what you're saying. I don't know David, but Evans is the only in that group that I'd consider trading taking in exchange for Diggs. No way is Godwin in his class, nor Gronk today nor Pierre Paul today. Those guys may be play makers but they aren't game changers. Micah Hyde is a playmaker, but he isn't a star. Hughes is a playmaker but not a star. If the Bills had one the Super Bowl, people would have been talking about the plays those guys made. If the Packers had beaten the Bucs, no one would be talking here about Godwin or Pierre-Paul (I don't say that to suggest that they aren't good players). The Bucs were good, really good, because they collected a lot of talent and got themselves a great QB. My point was that you need good talent to win, but other than at QB, they don't need to be stars. Aaron Donald doesn't make you a winner, Kahlil Mack doesn't, Budda Baker doesn't. Heck, Mike Evans didn't until Brady showed up. Hopkins doesn't make you a winner. It's a simple formula - collect talent and get a great QB. It was the Patriots formula, it was the Packers formula, the Saints formula, the Chiefs formula, the Bucs formula. And it's the Bills formula. What I like about what the Bills are doing is they're collecting talent, and talent is talent.

Yeah, I think he's Feliciano II. Who knows, maybe better. Was it Brown or Doyle who said he can play guard? Who knows how it's all going to shake out, but it's kind of amazing that the Bills have a bunch of guys on the offensive line who can play three or four positions, and they look like they're planning on having guys play all over on the defensive line, too. It's position flexibility taken to a new level. It's pretty impressive.

Thanks to you and Logic. I knew he had had injury problems, but I didn't know that they were so clearly career-limiting. Too bad for him. He was a player.

I just noticed that the Cowboys did not exercise the option on Vander Esch, same year, similar stats as Edmunds. You could spin that two ways: Jerry Jones knows what he's doing, or he doesn't. Depends on what you think about Jerry Jones.

Me too, not that they were going to say anything earth shattering. I'm moving on. Good luck.

Better not to offer than offer and not deliver. I've been trying for 20 minutes.

I can't get it to open. It says Master Failed to Download, or something like that.