Shaw66

And it also explains why Allen went from the fake to Shakir, the look at Shavers, then the look over the middle, and then around to Davis in the flat. When he looked over the middle, he wasn't looking for Moore crossing - he was looking for Kincaid.

I don't agree. Allen didn't even stop to consider the throw to Moore. He moved his feet to be in position to throw to him and immediately moved his feet in order to make an off-balance throw to Davis. If the Bills don't want him making that throw, then I'll say more emphatically, the Bills need a new offensive coordinator. As I said earlier, Mahomes makes that throw to JuJu, and Andy Reid wants it all day.

One other thing about all of this. It's interesting and instructive that we're talking about the offense, particularly the passing game, after a 40-9 blowout win. Why is it interesting and instructive? Because we're all seeing the same thing, even against the Panthers: The offense is not very effective. Bills were winning 6-0 in a game where in most seasons it would have been 14-0. We're seeing Josh, look confused and get sacked. We're seeing bad throws, missed open receivers. We've seen the Bills lose two games where they gave up 23 and 24 points; in each game the offense was ineffective, and the Bills lost more because they couldn't score than because the defense let them down. It's been pretty ugly. Take away the gaping holes the Panthers kept giving up in the run game and a couple of big defensive plays, and the Bills would have found themselves in another tight game. Something has to change.

Moore is supposed to get the ball on that play I think you've described the play accurately. Watch Allen's feet. He sets his feet to fake the throw on the screen, then he resets to look downfield. Shavers is covered AND the safety has turned to go that way, too. Allen resets his feet a third time, just as he was taught, to be in position to throw to Moore, but almost immediately resets to find the outlet in the left flat. It's a mistake by Allen. His feet do what he's supposed to do, but his brain doesn't. The play design is if he doesn't have the throw to Shavers, he's supposed to come off Shavers and find Moore. He knows he has Moore in single coverage because he's just seen the safety break to help on Shavers. He sets his feet to make the throw to Moore and then comes off it almost immediately. The play is designed for him to make one of three choices - Shavers, Moore, Davis. He had Moore and rushed right through the choice.

No way. In the first place, the defender is clearly trailing Moore, and Allen can lead him either across the end zone or throw it shorter and let Moore go down for the ball inside the five. Either way, the only way the defender can make a play is by going through Moore, and then they get the interference call. If, as you say, Allen can make the throw, it's a gimme touchdown. Should he throw it to Moore? Absolutely! What makes you think he shouldn't throw it to him? Because Moore only has five receptions season? Moore's a quality NFL receiver. He's not a star, but he's a quality receiver. 80 receptions in 8 games his last year of college, drafted 34th overall, averaged 50 catches a year in his first four seasons in the league playing on lousy teams with lousy quarterbacks. Yes, you absolutely throw the ball to him. JuJu Smith-Schuster averages 50 receptions a year. You think Mahomes doesn't throw that ball? I think Brady has Allen all screwed up.

But that doesn't explain Josh simply not seeing a gimme touchdown two Moore. No safety over the top. Moore with a step and a half on the defender. We've seen Josh throw 10 touchdowns like that. He should have seen that opportunity in his pre-snap read, he should have looked off the safety and come back to Moore for the touchdown. Simple completion that any good quarterback will take. My only explanation for not making that throw is that Josh was not prepared to execute that play the way it was designed. He's done it regularly in years past, and the coaches need to figure out how to get him back to doing it.

These are both good examples. I think Josh's decision making has taken a big step backward this season. I don't know if it's Josh or how he's being preparing. One factor is calling the protections. You say the problem on the first video is the edge is unblocked. Well, it's pretty obvious pre-snap that the edge is unblocked, and Josh is supposed to do something about that. Either have a hot read and not worry about the guy, or adjust the blocking. I saw another one like this yesterday where a linebacker on the offensive left side lined up unblocked and had a straight run at Josh, forcing an incompletion. And as you say, on the second one, Moore is open for the touchdown. Josh has made that throw for years. Why isn't he recognizing almost from the beginning of the play that he has this throw? I don't think Josh is properly prepared. This is way he looked in his first two or three seasons. It's a significant regression from the last couple of seasons.

These are good examples, and I saw a few others during the game, too. Remember, in training camp and in the beginning of the season, Josh was intentionally looking for Coleman, and they worked a lot on their timing. That's all gone away now. Now it seems Josh seems only to go to Keon on throws that are contested catches where Keon has to win a 50-50 battle for the ball. Three years ago, two years ago, when we all were saying Josh was the MVP and he wasn't getting the award, he was hitting wide open receivers a lot because the schemes were getting guys open and Josh understood where those openings were. Now, it seems like every completion is a struggle. Cook and Johnson have disappeared from the passing game. Kincaid and Knox have disappeared. I simply don't believe that all of these guys are that much worse than all the other receivers in the league.

I agree with this. And what it speaks to is the player personnel and style philosophy that I talk about often. McDermott's philosophy is that good, versatile, competitive players can be molded into a team that, as a team, plays better than teams with more talented but less versatile players. That's certainly the philosophy for receivers, but it's also the philosophy for the offensive line. I mention the line because another part of the problem that the offensive is having is inconsistent pass protection. They aren't, as a group, good pass protectors. Allen has been in trouble in the pocket often this season. He's taken several sacks while in the pocket. Defensive line, the same thing. If Rousseau is your star, you'd better be running really good schemes. That may be a good philosophy for team building. One thing that's good about a team that depends on teamwork to win, rather than star talent, is that when injuries happen, the next man up isn't replacing a star, he's replacing just another guy. However, that philosophy requires that the team have excellence in another place, and that's coaching. If you're going to play with average talent and rely on teamwork to win, you need coaches who build teamwork. And those coaches have to have excellent schemes in place, week after week, because executing those schemes is what gives your average talent an edge. We definitely are not seeing that edge in the receiving game. And, to be honest, I don't expect to see that edge in the running game against the Chiefs. And we've only seen the edge in the defensive game inconsistently. I really don't think it's a Beane problem. I think Beane is getting the kind of players McDermott wants. I mean, instead of trading up for a receiver, he traded back to take Coleman, and no one in the football world thought Coleman was a guy who would blow the top off defenses. They took him for a reason. Most people around here were excited when Beane took Kincaid, and the guy has kind of disappeared. Since Diggs, the only quality receiving talent Beane has gone after was Cooper. It's completely clear that the problem lies in the kind of game McDermott is trying to play. I mean, think about this way: Do you really think Beane would still be the GM if McDermott were sitting in his office every night for the past three seasons thinking, "why can't Brandon get me at least one good receiver?" I don't. If that's what McDermott thought, he would have told Terry Pegula he needed a new GM, and Beane would have been gone. McDermott has the kind of players he wanted, and he and his coaches are not delivering the kind of success he thought they could.

And it may also explain why the Bills' star receiving tight end also seems to have disappeared. The Bills have actual professional receivers all over the line up and don't have a passing game. My guess is they're all keeping their mouths shut, because they're good team players, but in their heads they're thinking "WTF?"

Sorry, I just wrote the same thing without having seen this post. I think it's pretty clear that serviceable receivers seem to become bums when they arrive in this offense. And it maybe, just maybe, it explains why Diggs became increasingly unhappy in Buffalo.

Haven't read all the comments, but it seems that the gist of them is the Bills need some better receivers. I'd like the Bills to have better receivers, too, but I'm not sure that's the problem. I'd suggest that Joe Brady and perhaps Sean McDermott are the problems. And I think there are some pretty simple statistics that demonstrate why: In 4+ years in the league, playing on two lousy teams with lousy quarterbacks, Elijah Moore averaged 52 receptions for over 500 yards and 2 TDs over 17 games. He is way below that average with the Bills and a HOF quarterback. He's on pace for 15 receptions and 200 yards. In his years in the league, playing his first seven on two lousy teams and with lousy quarterbacks, Curtis Samuel averaged 55 receptions for over 500 yards and four TDs over 17 games. He is way below that average with the Bills and a HOF quarterback. He's on pace for 10 receptions and 100 yards. Somehow, coaches for the Jets and the Browns and the Panthers and Washingtons knew how to get the ball to these guys 600 yards per season, even though they didn't have Josh Allen throwing and they didn't have James Cook putting up 150 yards rushing. Neither one of those guys is world-beater, but the production for both of them declined significantly as soon as they arrived in Buffalo and began playing for Brady and McDermott.

He was in and out throughout the game.

Matt and I just met in the car return at the airport. Good to see him. Everyone was in a great mood!

I paid about $450 for regular seats on about the 30. $468 for club seats. I would have jumped in if they had been available.

I'll be there with my travel buddy. 15 years on the road to games.

Evans is one of my favorite receivers. He fights for everything, and he's such a good athlete, he wins most fights. He's an absolute workhouse. I thought when he came out of college that he was too slow, but that was obviously wrong. Forget that it was the same year as Sammy. What a blunder Sammy turned out to be.

That's certainly the way it looked through six games. We'll see.

Several people jumped on here, piled on in fact, with the notion that the Bills are bad or in need of serious talent upgrades. I'm not there yet. What I wrote about is how the Bills have looked through six games compared to what I've seen from some good teams in the last couple of weeks. The comparison doesn't look good for the Bills. However, as I've kept saying, the season is about winning enough games to be relevant for the first half of the season, and then being downright good for the second half and into the playoffs. I don't think the season is lost, not by a long shot. I think McDermott's overarching plan always is to have a team full of guys who are intense competitors and to put them in a system where, when they're all competing at a high level, the system makes them better than their collective individual talent. That's what he's trying to do, year after year. I think McDermott expects his coaches to build those competitors in a high functioning team in the second half of the season. What's troubling this season is that a lot of different areas of the Bills' game all seem to need to be turned up a couple of notches. It seems like it's more than a tweak here and there. They need a win at Carolina, and they need to beat the Chiefs. The outcomes of those two games will say a lot. We'll see.

Three weeks ago, at the one-quarter mark of the season, I was reasonably pleased with the Bills. Now, two losses and a bye later, I’m really wondering whether the Bills are a team that can’t compete at the highest levels. First, a disclaimer: I’m not paying as much attention to the Bills and pro football this season as I have in the past. Last season, if the NFL was on, I watched. This season, I’m watching or attending every Bills game but watching only bits and pieces of other games, sticking with a game if I’m interested, turning it off if it’s boring, or even not watching at all. There’s a sameness to the games that is making me feel like I’m watching the NBA, and the ads are mind-numbing. Point being, I’m writing about my impressions rather than from some deep knowledge and understanding of the NFL. So, what’s bothering me about the Bills? In no particular order: Speed. I’m seeing teams put a lot of pressure on their opponents with raw speed. I’ve seen clips of the Chiefs, and they’re doing it with Rice back and with Worthy. Gibbs is doing it for the Lions. I guess Elijah Moore and Curtis Samuel are supposed to be the speed element with the Bills, and James Cook, but it doesn’t look the same to me. Power. Several teams, particularly the Eagles and Lions, can consistently drive defensive lines off the ball. They can pound at opponents with good success, and they can protect their quarterbacks in part because they can’t be overpowered. The Bills haven’t shown that kind of power; they’re built to be mobile with enough power to get by, but I haven’t seen them dominate with either mobility or power yet. Strong defensive linemen can overpower them in the passing game. Mike Vrabel brought a powerful, aggressive attitude to the Patriots, and the Bills couldn’t handle it. Fiercely aggressive defense. Some good defenses are coming at the offenses, threatening on every play. The Seahawks seem to be attacking the quarterback and pass receivers relentlessly. The Lions are playing an entire defensive backfield of backups and practice squad guys and still, they play consistently tighter man-to-man defense than the Bills starters ever show. I get that the Bills’ philosophy is shut down the big gains and to make enough plays on the short stuff to stop drives, but other teams are killing the explosive plays AND attacking all over the field. Struggling with mediocre opponents. Michael Penix, Jr. looked like a franchise quarterback against the Bills. A week later the 49ers made him a non-factor. The Dolphins and the Saints pretty much can’t beat anyone, and the Bills were unable to put either team away decisively. Offensive stagnation. In previous seasons, we grew accustomed to seeing the Bills put together long drives, converting on multiple third downs, relentlessly attacking the short- and intermediate areas of the field. This season, the offense has yet to find that kind of consistency. The league seems to have caught up with the defensive style the Bills have featured, and now there are several teams that make that it difficult to sustain drives like that. The Bills offense is struggling against defenses that play the McDermott style, but play it more aggressively. The Bills have been unable to attack weak spots in those defenses, and drives are stalling more frequently. I continue to think that it’s a long season and that the best teams play their best football beginning in December. The Lions, the Eagles, and the Chiefs each are showing signs of becoming dominant teams, and several other teams are emerging as serious opponents. Maybe what we’ve seen is all part of Sean McDermott’s plan for the season: Play vanilla offense and defense to the bye, then begin to ramp up. Maybe his plan was to go 5-1 before the bye and the plan bit him a bit. Maybe those big cushions the Bills cornerbacks give receivers are going to start tightening up, maybe the unexpected blitzes are coming, maybe the offensive line will begin to flash in the run game, maybe Josh Allen will come out of his funk and begin slicing and dicing defenses with the precision we’ve seen in past seasons. I don’t really know. What I do know is that the Bills we’ve seen through six games do not look very much like the teams that are emerging as dominant forces in the league. It’s time to get going. GO BILLS!!! The Rockpile Review is written to share the passion we have for the Buffalo Bills. That passion was born in the Rockpile; its parents were everyday people of western New York who translated their dedication to a full day’s hard work and simple pleasures into love for a pro football team.

Thanks, Tuco. I appreciate that you posted. A little history. Tuco and I were involved in a Bills-related charitable project 20 years ago, and he and I have chatted off and on for years. In earlier years, he posted under another name. We also sat in the same section when I first had season tickets. He's a good, good guy. His avatar changes from time to time, and I noticed his latest avatar, Innocent Possessions; It's the cover of his latest novel. I've enjoyed reading both of his books.

Well, I don't know who his replacement would be, but I agree very much with the observation. The defense does look uninspired. And, for that matter, so does the offense.

People say Benford is having a bad year. The safeties aren't lighting it up. Taron Johnson looks average. White is "unrosterable"! And yet, the Bills are fourth in the league in passing yards per game allowed. Ninth in completion percentage allowed. Second in longest pass allowed. 15th in passer rating allowed. McDermott must be an absolute genius, getting that kind of performance out of five DBs who suck.

I haven't read much of this thread, but it relates to something I've been thinking about. I agree there's too much panic. Of course, we'd like the Bills to be dominating every game instead of looking so suspect, but that isn't reasonable. Teams rarely do that. I agree with starry, that it's all about making the playoffs and playing well then. Ideally, you win the home field throughout, but homefield isn't as important as playing well when you get to the playoffs. I wrote last week about how the preseason is coming to an end. Many people got on my case, saying that's ridiculous, but this past week has me even more convinced. Who are the favorites to get to the Super Bowl? Bills and Eagles, and that was AFTER both teams lost on Sunday. Nobody thinks the Bills and Eagles are playing like big winners - they both are struggling. But the question is who's most likely to put it together, and based on the bones of each team, the experience, the QB, most everyone still thinks those are the two leaders. I was watching the Eagles struggle against the Giants last night and could help but think two things: Right now, the two teams looked similar, bumbling around the field, too many penalties, certainly not firing on all cylinders, leaky defense. Very similar. The other thing I thought is that the Bills played a tough team on Sunday, a team that looked like it was coming together, got smacked around a bit, and lost by a field goal on the last play. The Eagles completely fell apa, rt against a team that had shown very little except a wish about their rookie QB. Eagles took a much worse beating. If the Eagles still are the team to beat in the NFC, then the Bills are struggling less. The offense clearly hasn't come together yet, but all the pieces are there. The passing game will be fine, especially when the oline tightens up the pass pro. Cook is doing fine. The defense hasn't found itself, but I think it's by design. I think, for example, that when we get to December we'll see the Bills' zone tighten, and they'll be tough against that underneath stuff that's killing them now. And the d line will get reinforcements and will be battle tested. Can I prove that we saw last week will fade as the team gets sharp in December? No, but it looks to me as though the Bills are doing this consciously. They will be cranking things up beginning after the bye, being 4-1 at this point will have been certainly good enough.

Wow. Third fewest passes attempted against the Bills, and the two teams ahead of them have played one fewer game. So, the Bills are essentially leading the league in passes attempted against. Makes sense. Bills invite you to run the ball, and teams have been doing that. And it's worked as a strategy. Bills are 4-1 doing it the way they do. Still, I can't say it gives me much confidence.