Shaw66

Alabama is where you go to find late-round picks and undrafted free agents. They recruit more of the best athletes in the country than almost anyone.

I say you've taken an overly pessimistic view, in several respects. He had 670 yards in receptions, which was right around where I expected him to be. That's a nice total for a rookie, especially for a tight end. A rookie wideout who starts has an opportunity for some chunk plays that a tight end doesn't get. So, I'd say his production was pretty good, and I expect it will improve. Next, I'd say that "he rarely broke tackles" is unfair. A large number of his catches were essentially dumpoffs over the middle where he was surrounded by defenders. He's not a big guy who's going to drag those tacklers. Still, he always goes down going forward, and he gets just about all the yards he can. He had several plays where he made a move to avoid a tackler and get extra yards, and in particularly he made several to get the first down. He's not a great open field runner, but he gets ahead in space before he goes down. Drops. I agree about that. He's excellent when he's open, but he isn't so good on contested catches. In a crowd, he doesn't seem to come down with it as often as he should. One thing that was apparent was how often Allen's throws were off target. Some of his drops really were throws where Allen missed the market, and some of his best catches also were on inaccurate throws. I agree about bulking up. He looks like he could carry another ten pounds, and then would make him tougher to bring down. I wouldn't call him a disappointment at all. However, if he's never better than he was as a rookie, I will be disappointed. My hope for 2024 is that Brady will have a creative passing attack with Diggs, Samuel, and Shakir attacking all over the field, short and long, and with Kincaid finding plenty of holes as the defenders chase the speed guys.

Happy Birthday, Coach!

Exactly the kind of characteristics McD likes. 3rd round pick. Still, only a one-year deal, so he will be competing for a job.

Cover One says Bills liked him at Senior Bowl. The Bills usually sign guys they've followed for a while. They generally know what they're getting. They must like him as a sleeper starter.

Two Super Bowl rings.

Well, if those are the rules, okay, but I think Fred is actually the answer. I think Fred was the emotional heart and sole of the team until Kyle took over, overlap or not. And because I haven't always been so deeply attached to the team, and because I'm old enough not to be able remember, I have trouble naming guys from earlier eras. Talley, for sure. But between him and Fred, I'm sure there were leaders, but I'm not sure any were in the category of Fred and Kyle.

Fred Jackson.

Great read. Thanks.

I don't think so. The Bills are never going to carry all the guys they could draft, so they'll push them to practice squad where they'll get pick off by weaker teams. Beane loves to move up to get guys the Bills thought would be gone much earlier. I expect that twice in the draft he'll package one or two picks to move up to get a guy they really like. He'll come out of the draft with seven guys, eight maximum.

The problem with the compromise is it upsets the safety chemistry. I think if he moves he will be more or less full time. He would need all the safety reps in practice, too.

I don't agree that there's a talent imbalance. Torrence, Cook, Kincaid in the past three years. But I definitely agree about the long hard look. I just quoted a bit, but the whole post was excellent. Thanks.

I've suggested moving Johnson before. People bash me about it. I like it because safety is a more important position. It requires tackling ability, coverage skills and brains. That's Johnson. It's easier to find a slot corner than a safety. It's been a luxury to have him in that position. If he moves, then the Bills need a new slot corner or they go 4-3. I think Johnson would be a great safety.

I think McDermott wants to get Dorian Williams into the lineup with Bernard and Milano and attack from the second tiernof the defense. I still think we'll see Taron Johnson at safety and more 4-3.

I don't think so. One thing I like about Beane is he values first-round talent, and he likes to trade up to get it. Especially because he has a lot of draft capital, I expect he'll go up a few picks to get someone.

And this problem you describe is my biggest criticism about how McBeane choose personnel. They keep getting guys who do everything, like Rousseau and Oliver, but they aren't dominant playmakers. The dominant playmakers are the difference makers in the playoffs. Maybe with Milano and Miller (the pre-injury Miller) the Bills would have had the right guys. A roster dull of guys who just execute the system works in the regular season but has trouble in the playoffs, because the offenses are effective and can exploit otherwise minor weaknesses.

Thanks. I'm not sure we were talking past each other. I've enjoyed it, getting to understand your perspective about this. You haven't convinced me about philosophy, and I haven't convinced you, but that's okay. Your points about the draft make a lot of sense. I don't know the players in the draft, but I get your point. Bills needed a guard last year, but it wasn't a first-round move. Second round was the place to find a guard, and they did. If it's a second-round center this year, that's great. I really wasn't talking about what the Bills should be doing in the draft as talking about what the team needs. I don't think the Bills need a Tee Higgins to round out the receiver room. If they get a first-round receiver, it's a good move because in a year or two he'll replace Diggs, and he'll help this year, but I don't think the team needs a Tee Higgins to get the receiver room to the right level of talent. I think for 2024 a talent like that may be nice, but it's probably overkill. You don't think it's overkill. Got it.

I didn't say anything about the 85 Bears, and that's not what I meant. What it takes to win the Super Bowl is what the Chiefs did to the Bills in Buffalo in January: Make it very difficult for a very good offense to score. Championship games these days are won by scoring in the high 20s and keeping a really good offense in the high teens or low 20s. That's how most games go. To be a champion, you have to hold down a really good offense, and the last two Bills losses to KC in the playoffs, the defense couldn't do it. Offense did its part, but the defense didn't. It's only occasionally that the winner in those games wins by blowing the doors off the other team. The defenses are two good. Once in a while, yes, but as I said, it's not a sustainable model. You win with effective offense that gets you into the high 20s and really tough defense that makes a good opponent struggle. The Bills might actually have had that kind of defense last season, with Milano and Bernard and Miller playing, but they didn't. Now, if they all come back, they still are not yet in a position to have that kind of defense because they need help in the defensive backfield and on the D line. They had the offense last season, or were close, but if Dion getting pushed into Josh, and Samuel replacing Davis will make the offense better. He's a more effective threat. They need a center. Now, I'm not arguing for a first-round safety or center. I don't know who's out there. And Beane is always a surprise, so I have no expectations. All I'm saying is the notion that the way to win is by constantly giving Josh more and more weapons isn't the way. The Chiefs let Tyreek Hill walk and have never replaced him. Josh had as many weapons last season as Mahomes had, at least until whatever it was happened to Diggs. It's not about more weapons. It's about effective weapons and tough-as-nails defense.

Thanks for the thoughtful response. It's funny to me , because I agree with the first three paragraphs, in that I can understand what you're saying. I don't know that it's right, but it makes sense. I get, for example, that a big X might make it an exceptional receiver corps. I don't know if that's true. But I also get that a talented OC can figure out how to make different combinations work, so I don't know that a big X is the only solution. Why it's funny is I pretty much completely disagree with the last three paragraphs. I think a violent, highly talented defense is essential to winning the post-season, and the Bills need real help in that regard. So, I see defense as a greater need. I also don't think that trying to out-offense the whole league is the way to win. Somebody always stops offense. It's not a sustainable philosophy for winning. Defense is. And I seriously don't believe the surround-Allen-with-talent thing. He needs to be surrounded with enough talent; when he has enough talent, more talent doesn't make him better. The question is whether the Bills have the right talent and the right coordinator. The wrong coordinator, and it simply doesn't matter how much talent they put around Allen.

Well, positional value is important, but I think you're greatly overvaluing the wide receiver position. I think wideouts aren't much more valuable than running backs. What? First, look at the Chiefs. Kelce at 93 receptions, Rice at 79, and Pacheco at 44. They weren't exactly stacked with receivers putting up gaudy numbers. Then look at the Lions. St Brown. LaPorta, Gibbs. The NFL just isn't about flashy wideout tandems. Now, think about what you're saying about the draft, about how deep it is at receiver. It's true about the league in genreal - there are good recivers who make plays all over the league. Samuel, for example. There are a lot of good, athletic, fast players. The league is much about getting a nice collection of those guys and designing an effective offense that they execute. And that's what people have been saying here about the Bills. Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid in a well designed passing attack are a tough group to defend - as tough as any in the league. Solid route runners, good hands, good speed, good run after catch. So, for the Bills in the draft, wide out has pretty low positional value. A center or a safety is much more important to the 2024 Bills. Now, the Bills will need a new #1 wideout, so I agree that the long-term value of the position is greater than the short-term value, but the Bills have some time to find the new #1. Beane always seems to make the move he needs to get the guy he wants, and I'm sure he'll make his move for a receiver when it makes sense. So, as much as you'd like a receiver in the first round, and I'd be happy with one, I think the notion that that position, particularly now, is not of significant value to this team right now. If you're going to talk about positional value, Beane should go in a different direction.

I'm not sure they need another quality guy for 2024, but I won't argue the point. You may be right. And I certainly won't object if a quality starter shows up in the draft. And I completely agree about the comparison with Shakir. With Diggs and Samuel on the field, Shakir will see more open space to work in. Samuel will make Shakir better, not vice versa.

I agree, but I think thebholes are fillable. Safety is my biggest concern. Difference maker might come out of the draft. Might not.

I agree with Transplant, in part for a different reason. I think most fans over emphasize player talent and under emphasize coaching. In terms of team play, the Bills are one of the best coached teams in the league. It's coaching that puts them in the top five in the league. Debating number 2 or 3 receivers makes little sense. Those guys are interchangeable and all will give you more or less the same production. Samuel has different strengths and weaknesses fro. Davis, but their contributions will be about the same. With Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Cook there's more than enough talent for thw passing game. It's up to Brady. In fact, across the whole lineup, most players are interchangeable. The talent in the league is really high, and one backup DT is more or less the same as the next. You just need your share of playmakers. Allen alone puts the Bills ahead of most teams when it comes to playmakers, and Diggs and Milano are in that category. Bernard, Miller, maybe Kincaid. Maybe the first round pick. If Beane does a good job, he will get a starter in round 1. If it's a wideout, even better for the passing game. If it's an edge, great. Safety? Great. Center? Great. McDermott doesn't make predictions, but he will be disappointed if the Bills win fewer than 12 games.

All of this makes sense to me. I liked Davis's size, and the Bills lost that, but they play so much with two tight ends that I think they have the size covered. Diggs, Knox, and Kincaid is enough in red zone, and Shakir or Samuel can be Beasley. And I agree, a receiver in the first two rounds would make for a formidable receiver room.

I just clicked in to see what people were saying about Samuel. I don't know the league personnel very well, and I have no real opinion about Samuel as a player. I'm sure I've seen him, but I don't remember any play he's ever made. However, my opinion about the signing, as soon as I looked at his career stats, was what you said (in bold) above. This is a veteran receiver with physical skills (second round pick}. He has a lot of playing time. He must know the game. What I'm hoping for, and expecting, out of Brady is some sophisticated route designs that attack weaknesses in defenses from week to week. What those play designs require is smart receivers, guys who can read defenses and adapt. I think Diggs is one of those, and I think Shakir is one. Kincaid looks like one, and Knox isn't bad either. I think Samuel is one. And I think this is exactly the kind of guy that Reid likes on his team, a guy who can execute schemes with speed and who can catch the ball. I don't know Xs from Ys and slot guys and all that, but I don't think the physical differences in guys is what matters in those positions. I think the modern passing game is largely about attacking the weaknesses in the defense, and that takes brains, not physique. I like this signing. And I don't think it means the Bills won't take a receiver in the first round. What Samuel does is eliminate the NEED to go receiver early. It gives Beane flexibility in the draft. And I'll go back to the point Transplant made in his thread. This team is getting better. Dodson, Settle, Jackson are losses, but they can be and will be replaced. There'll still be some talent signed in free agency, and the draft will help. I like this team.