Shaw66

I hear what you're saying, but I think you're right that he isn't on Beane's list. They've always said that effort, teamwork, work ethic are essential, and if you don't have that, you aren't playing for the Bills. Compare Young to Spencer Brown. Brown had a unique body and good athletic ability, but he wasn't all world at anything. They took him for the intangibles. That's the kind of upside they bet on - someone who's work ethic can make him an over-achiever. That's who Bernard is. And Milano. And Taron Johnson. Miller had the special physical traits AND the character stuff. I can't see Young.

Me too. There are some places where I should spend time - like, a part of me wishes I'd check into the Athletic and Cover 1 every few days, but I don't do that. As far as nationally, it's a joke. I suppose there are a few outlets that would keep me informed better than I am. I wasn't a big Peter King fan, but if you read him regularly you'd get some good, in-depth coverage of some part of what's happening with teams. But so much of what's out there is stuff written by people who are interested in the game, but don't have the time or the budgets to produce thoughtful stuff. They're just grinding stuff out, and in that situation it's hard not to just run with the conventional wisdom. So, you get, "Poyer, White, Morse. I know something about these guys. Wow, that's three big players. Bills are slashing the roster." Pretty uninformed stuff.

That's a good point. I said a few days ago that so far as I'm concerned, Tua and Brock Purdy are the same guys. Smart guys who can run your offense, accurate throwers on the short and mid-range balls, QBs who can eat up opponents so long as the offense is running on schedule: Drop, one read, or two, and throw. The problem with them is that when you need your QB to make a play, rather than just run the offense, the six or ten plays when you're off schedule and you need help, Tua and Purdy are not your guy. Those guys, as you say, are all in the AFC. Interestingly, even Rodgers, if he has anything left, is in the AFC. NFC has Dak, who makes those plays but not consistently enough, and I don't know who else. The only problem with this NFC theory is that the chances are that within a couple of seasons, some team or teams in the NFC will have gotten their guy in the draft, and once there are two or three in the NFC, Purdy no longer will look like a franchise guy, because he isn't going to be making the plays. So, even if I were in the NFC, I'm not sure I'd put big and long money into Tua.

There's just no quality mass-market coverage of the NFL in the off-season, because there's really no large market for quality. All of the national media outlets can get away with all the generalities, platitudes, same old stuff. Audiences for some reason tune in for that stuff, and they really don't want to hear the in-depth stuff, which is just too detailed. Take the Bills, for example. Since Beane went to work a few days ago, there's a lot to say about the Bills, but only people like us want to hear it. It's detailed, complicated, and not easy to explain in a sound bite. The general tv market isn't interested in a one-time half hour show about what's going on with the Bills salary cap. All that market wants to know about the Bills is Josh Allen, salary cap hell, the window, and maybe something about a wide receiver. And, as interested as I am in the Bills, I'm certainly not interested in 31 half-hour shows about the other teams. The result is that there's nothing out there to look at, other than the people who are dedicated to covering the Bills. Chris Brown, Eric Wood, Steve Tasker, Cover One, a half-dozen journalists, either print, online, or podcasts. Other than those folks, we know more here than the national media.

I don't know what Miami is thinking, but I don't think of it that way. Yes, for any other position, the question is whether the player is worth the money. That is, if you're talking about a linebacker, is he the best LB in the league, and what does the best LB cost? Or is he the 10th best, and what's 10th best worth? If he's depth and he's the 50th best LB, what is that worth. But for QB, I think the question is different. I think to a great extent, if you don't have a true franchise QB, you don't have anything. That is, I'm not interested in paying 10th best money to the 10th best QB, because the 10th best QB isn't a franchise QB. If I have the 10th best QB, I'm still looking for my QB. It's the position Washington was in and Minnesota now is in with Cousins. So, from my point of view, Miami's question is whether they believe Tua is their franchise QB. If he is, then sign him up at whatever cost. If he isn't, signing him to a mid- to high- contract is a mistake, because they'll be stuck with that contract when they decide to move on from him in a year or two or three. "Insist" may be too strong a word, but I would be amazed if Beane and McDermott haven't talked about WR with Allen. They certainly would like his input about what kind of receiver Allen sees as helping. And to some extent I'm sure Allen is saying to them, "Just figure out who we need to win." It's not like Allen's priority is a 5000-yard season or 50 TD passes. He wants to win the Super Bowl, and if they can win the Super Bowl running 35 QB sneaks a game, Allen will sign up for it.

As others have pointed out, the incentive may have been that the Bills told him they would cut him, and his agent told him that his options in free agency would be limited, given the uncertainty about his recovery.

I agree that if you have a QB, the window is always open. But that doesn't mean there is no such thing as a window. In other sports GMs sometimes operate on a "window" theory, trying to accumulate a lot of young talent and winning a championship before it's time to renew the contracts of several players at significantly higher contracts. The Mariners had a window, for example, when they had Griffey Jr, A-Rod, and Randy Johnson. They weren't going to be able to keep them all, and they saw the window closing. Unfortunately, they didn't get through it before it closed. In the NFL, the workings of the draft and the cap make discussions of windows less likely. The Dolphins and the Bengals have mini-windows, because they've both been playing with two number 1 receivers, which they could afford because one was on a rookie contract and because their QBs were on rookie contracts. Those windows are now closing, and the we'll have to see if those franchises have GMs and coaches who can in a more normal situation - high QB contract and only one number 1 receiver.

On average, a bit less than 50% of rosters turn over from season to season. Players come and go all the time. The success of teams is largely attributable to how they manage the change. The Bills roster has gotten better year over for the past five years. I expect we'll like the free agent deals, and we'll like the draft, and by July we won't be looking at any serious roster weaknesses, let alone holes. Bills are fine. If the coaches do their jobs, the Bills will be in the playoffs and will perform well.

I think that's the correct ceiling. They have been a preseason favorite to go deep in the playoffs for few years now, and nothing that's happened should change that. Josh, Diggs, Kincaid, and pretty much the whole offensive line is back. Defense has to replace a safety, a corner, and reshuffle the D line, with the best dlinemen, other than Jones, coming back. And Milano is coming back. There's no reason that we should expect the defense to be worse. Ceiling is high. Everyone has a lot of work to do.

That's an interesting theory. Not that I know him, but my sense of him is a real matter-of-fact guy who is pretty casual about things like that. If I recall it correctly, there's some miscommunication and recommunication about Dorian Williams and middle linebacker. I suspect McDermott's view is that every position is open for any solution and they aren't going to presuppose anything. And McDermott would rather that his coaches haven't formed an opinion yet. McDermott's challenge to the coaches is create competition and see who's good, and don't presuppose anything.

I don't have expectations, beyond that the Bills will be good and in the playoffs. I think that's the team they are - this team will be good so long as owner-GM-HC stay together. How much more they will be, I have no expectations. If it comes together well, they can win the Super Bowl. If it doesn't, well, they'll fall short.

That's a good point. Probably someone made a mistake. Or here's a theory. They don't know who's playing guard or center. McGovern is a possibility. Getting the word out lets everyone know the Bills are in the market for either. If they didn't say it, people would assume the Bills have high need at center and none at guard. THis gives them options. Just a guess.

That's true in a lot of ways. They signed Miller to be an impact player in 22 and 23 and hoped for the best after that. The writing was on the wall for Poyer and Hyde, although the timing was still unclear. Diggs would be in his prime, and they'd have Davis on a cheap contract. And remember, Edmunds was the start of the parade out the door. 2024 was always going to be like this. But as others have said, it just doesn't look to be too bad. The offense needs two players - a center or guard and a receiver. The defense needs a safety and probably a corner, although Douglas, Benford, Elam is a very nice fallback plan There are some things that would be nice, but that aren't essential. That's five players, with a tight but manageable cap budget and a boatload of picks. Beane will get Brady a receiver, and rest will be up to him. McDermott will get the defensive backfield together, and the Bills will be a contender.

I'm cap ignorant. Can you explain this? I thought when the Bills cut a guy, they took the cap hit, and the guy became a free agent. As a free agent, he's free to sign with any team, but there's an additional cap consequence if he goes back to his former team? Or did you just mean that once the franchise takes the hit, it's making a commitment to getting younger at the position, so they actually don't want the guy back? Frankly, I'm expecting that the Bills will bring in a veteran free agent to start at some position, safety, center, even guard, really anyplace up and down the lineup. So, if it were Morse that they needed for a year, you think the Bills wouldn't be interested? I'm not challenging what you said; just trying to understand what you meant.

Hey, Gunner. I was rereading this, and I hadn't really focused on the Hughes comparison. I can really see that. Hughes had an interesting skill set, but he wasn't well suited to playing the more button-down style McDermott wants from his edges. Playing that style limited the things that he did best. Hughes wasn't able to make explosive plays in that defense. Even though we've seen only a little of Elam, we've seen enough to see that playing with the discipline McDermott requires limits his ability to make plays. Compare him to Tre White, for example. White was good enough to be a true cover corner, but when he played with the discipline required by the defense, his cover skills aren't lost. That same thing is what the Bills got from Poyer and Hyde, and from Johnson. They're all guys with ability to make big plays AND play the scheme. That's also what's expected from the linebackers - run the defense, but make plays, too. That's what Elam has to do, and we haven't seen that from him yet. And that was Hughes's struggle, too. The difference is that Hughes was still a net plus on the field, but Elam has generally been a minus. Elam has to make a leap this summer. I can see that now.

I agree. Turnover is part of the program in any well-run franchise. Morse generally wasn't physical enough from my point of view. As others have said, he'd get pushed around in pass pro sometimes, and he wasn't a great power blocker. What he was was a solid leader in the middle of the line, in charge, standup guy. That will be missed. Also as others have said, this move isn't leaving a vacuum. They have a plan for the position, and no doubt a backup plan, too. And a center probably will be added to the equation someplace along the way, starter or backup. I'm not concerned. I often repeat what I heard Colin say one day. He asked a Las Vegas odds maker how much it would affect the point spread if JJ Watt (at the time he was the reigning defensive player of the year) was out of the lineup. The odds maker said, "maybe a half point." So, if JJ Watt is a half point in the point spread, what is a solid but not spectacular center? The league is full of talented athletes, well trained, committed. Some are better than others, of course, but the difference between the starter and a quality replacement often is pretty small.

Seems like you were right about Miller. I need to stop doubting you!

I really like this. I wonder if Trubisky has reached the conclusion that his future now is journeyman backup. If so, this is great. He might have a three-four-five-year run in Buffalo. He has the size, arm, running style, and brains to be a JA backup. A good fit in the QB room and a decent guy to put on the field if the need arises. I assume he and Josh get along, or else the Bills wouldn't have done this.

That's interesting. You know way more about the technical stuff than I. If the Bills are going to move on from him, I'd think the earliest that would happen would be late camp/preseason, when they know they have their CB depth covered with some other young player(s). I'm still hoping you're young, as you are, too.

Yes, that all may be true, but he also could be Jordan Poyer, who had 10 starts in four seasons in Cleveland, or Micah Hyde, who was only a part-time starter in Green Bay. Not saying he's a safety - just saying that top talent doesn't always develop into top players in the their first three or four years. Yes, change of scenery helps some, scheme is a factor. But at least with scheme, they thought he could be a scheme fit when they drafted him, and he knows that scheme fit is critical to making it in Buffalo. Maybe you're right, and the Bills already have given up on him and are just waiting for the right opportunity to unload him. I think he's cheap and talented. Aren't likely to get a better backup at that price. Bills will get a rookie corner or two in the draft and and free agency, and if one of them can take the backup job from Elam, so be it. Otherwise, I think the Bills will be happy to have him. At least, that would be my take.

I just wrote something about this generally, and gave Elam as an example. I think it's important to keep young talent a year too long, rather than cut young talent a year too early. Young often talent needs time to grow into the league, and it's worth it to give young talent extra time to see what that growth looks like. Everyone uses Wyatt Teller as the example. Elam was injured last year, which hampered his growth. He also, clearly, has had trouble being effective and consistent in McDermott's scheme. He's young - turns 23 this year. I'd much rather invest another year in him than see him starting for five years (which he has the potential to do) for some other team.

Yeah, I agree. Belichick was the master at that. Over the years, I've developed two general rules about player retention. The rules are (1) let old talent go before they're done (only exception is a true franchise player who you drafted and who deserves to finish his career with your team), and (2) keep young talent until you're sure they've busted. It looks like Beane should have started on the old players a year ago, and done it a bit more gradually. Had to keep Morse, because the middle of the line was so unsettled. Had to keep White, because he could have come back and been a stud for several years. McGovern, Torrence, and Douglas made them expendable this year. Had to be Poyer last year, and Rapp could have taken on a bigger role more quickly. The best talent in free agency is first and second picks coming off their rookie deals, guys who have underperformed in some way, so their original team lets them walk. Work ethic and team orientation are great, gotta have it, but there's no substitute for size, strength, speed, talent - the stuff you find in the first two rounds. Elam is the current example of sticking with the underperforming young talent. The Bills need to keep working with him and see how he develops. Edmunds was the last example - Bills were sure about him by the time he left.

Yes. They got a little old last season. They probably should have bit the bullet on Poyer last season.

That's great! Thanks!

I agree. It will be interesting.