Shaw66

I think your caution makes a lot of sense. Not all of these guys are likely to make it. It's more probable that one or two of these guys flop, so right now the depth is more perceived than real. And, as you say, some will need time to develop. Few will start out of gate - maybe Hairston if he's really smart and a quick learner. Maybe one defensive lineman will be a regular in the rotation, possibly two. What would be nice would be by the end of the regular season to be getting reasonable participation in the defense by four of them. That would be great, because it would mean there's some seriously improved talent on the field. The thing that intrigues me the most is the point that Dawg made - that Hairston could be an amazing player, and he could succeed as a rookie. Most season there's a rookie corner sensation or two in the league, and Hairston has the skill set to be one. Some of the other guys may project to be solid starters, and maybe a little more. Hairston could be a guy who allows McDermott a lot more creativity on the defense. If Hairston is that guy, and makes it as an impact player as a rookie, then the Bills have gotten the player they needed - a difference make on the defense.

Right. I knew there was someone else. As much as many of us, including me, say we want the Bills to take a classic one-tech monster of a man, it's completely clear that that is not how McBeane intend for the this team to play. It's all about tough-minded athletic guys. They 8 or 10 of them to rotate, mix and match. If that's the model, well, we have to live with it. And if that's the model, it looks like this year they've loaded up, better than ever, with guys who fit the mold. I'm not so good evaluating football talent. I'm pretty good at pornography.

I hear you, but in another sense, it just is very difficult to quantify great athleticism. I was in a discussion a couple of years ago about what it means to be "smooth" and it's not easy to describe. On top of that, we're all familiar with the notion that players playing speed is often different from their time to speed in the combine or other similar environments. The reality is that at the end of the day some players play beyond their statistical measures, and other players don't play up to them. In every case, it's necessary just to wait and see what they do when they get on the field.

We can imagine a truly dominant defense, but I don't think that's likely. I don't think a defense can be really dominant when the dline is built for speed and versatility. However, I think last season the defense was good enough to get the Bills where they went, and this season it's the same guys with some improvements: 1. Cornerback should be better, and possibly much better. 2. Bosa, Ogunjobi, and the two draft picks yesterday should improve the d line. 3. Rapp, Bishop, Hamlin all have another season under their belts. We should see a tougher defense all around. And if one or two of the rookies is really good early, it could be really good.

I think the pros - the GMs and the coaches - have learned over the years to be careful about what they say. They choose their words carefully. I think a 23-year-old guy who's never been through this process before is likely to hear things he wants to hear and isn't accustomed to listening as carefully to the words as the GM or coach chose them.

Yes, I expect them to burn some of those late rounders to make little moves to grab guys they like. A receiver makes sense.

I think that if we could ask Beane, he would say that the Bills' objective is to have eight or ten defensive linemen, ALL of whom would start on most other teams. I think they really think they have eight or ten starters who share the job. That's what their objective is. They want to come at the offensive line with waves of talent. I can't explain it other than that.

I can't compare players, but I do know that one coach who played the Bills last year said that they set up their offensive scheme by first planning how they can contain Oliver. That's not a bad thing.

It's becoming more clear as each season goes by that McDermott wants quickness and versatility, and he believes that he can get those smaller guys to rise to the challenge on running downs. I think it's McDermott's wrestling mentality. I think his belief is that it's tougher to find big guys with the quickness and versatility he wants, than it is to find smaller quick guys who are tough enough to win against big power lines. I have trouble seeing how his view actually is a better approach to defensive line plane, but McDermott has reasons that I'm sure at least make sense. It's almost as though the plan is to fill the tackle room with 3Ts and have them compete. The two winners make the team as 3Ts, the next two guys get the 1T spots and agree to play the position as well as they can. I don't know.

This is a really good insight. I mean, think of it: They're bringing in this kid with all the talent in the world, a kid who is energetic and committed and competitive, and they surrounding him with four certifiable practitioners of the McDermott pass defense. He will be in OTAs and camp and preseason with Benford, White, Jackson, and Taron Johnson. They all will be showing him, teaching him. Hairston has the opportunity in the next three months to win the starting job outright, and all four of those guys are going to be helping him do it. Hairston couldn't have been put in a better situation to succeed, and the Bills may be the beneficiary really quickly.

Thanks for this. You've looked at a lot more tape than I have, obviously. Before I say more, let me congratulate you on your final draft analysis, for having come down to the conclusion that the Bills would be taking a corner at 30 and knowing who was on the short list. Nice job. I agree with your analysis. There's always the risk that a guy taken late in the first round just won't pan out, and we've seen that recently enough. I think that he that he probably will make it, and that he has some unusual upside. I think you are exactly right about this. If he's just number two to benford's number one, the pick will have been worth it. If he is a guy who makes people talk about Deion Sanders, the pick will be one of the best in Bills history. If he can be the kind of mental player that McDermott wants, McDermott will create multiple opportunities for Hairston to use his unique skill set. If that happens, a half dozen teams or more will wonder why they didn't take him earlier in the first round.

I have no idea what the Bills will do in in the second round. I would be happy if they could find a way to package some of their other picks to move up higher in the second round. But even if they stay where they are, the opportunity to add two second round talents to this team is a great thing. Hairston plus plus the two guys they can get tonight could be three starters by the end of this season, and that would mean the Bills have gotten a lot better in this draft. My choices would be a defender at almost any position and a running back. If the Bills found a quality running back in the second round, we could see Cook going in a a trade this summer which would allow Beane to add another pick in next years a draft.

I think the formula still works, however. If you have a front four that can get to the quarterback, if they can win and generate pressure, then the defense can begin to pull the back seven up tighter on the line of scrimmage and create more risk on the quick throws. Then the quarterback is under a lot of pressure, because The automatic short throw stops being quite so automatic. Once the QB pump fakes and waits for the double move, for example, somebody on the defensive line is beginning to apply pressure, and now the offense is in some trouble. I don't think there's any other way to play the game. Plus, if Bosa is healthy and the old Bosa, once in awhile Rousseau is going to be dropping into coverage and the Bills will be rushing three, still threatening to get it the quarterback with Bosa and adding a big, tall, mobile defender in the short passing lanes. Hairston can help with all of this because he looks to be able to play press coverage and cut off some of the quick passing opportunities. You're right about this. You don't have to watch very much video of the guy to understand that he is an extraordinary athletic talent. Both his speed and his quickness are breathtaking, and he looks like he is good hands too. He's a big time athlete in a relatively small body. As Beane said, if he were 6'2 and 15 lb heavier, he would have gone way up at the top of the draft I'm excited about him. He could be really special.

Thanks for this. I've said before that I very much wanted the bills to get a difference maker somewhere. A guy that teams have to plan for. I've always thought that guy was an interior lineman, particularly a one-tech tackle. Generally, I don't think cornerbacks can be maker makers, and I doubt Hairston will be one, particularly in McDermott's D. However, I agree with what you said, because the lineman disappeared off the board so quickly that it simply wasn't possible to get up into the draft far enough to get a guy who projected as a difference maker. The next best choice was a really good defensive player at almost any position, and it seems like that's what they got. Of course, he has to show he can do it, but he projects as a guy who can be very valuable in McDermott's defense. I haven't read the entire thread, and I don't know what others have said, but I haven't seen anyone just making the comment about the fact that Houston's speed alone makes him a special threat on corner blitzes. Unblocked, he can get to the QB fast. He looks like the kind of guy who McDermott can use as a weapon all over the field. He could be a better version of Tre White at White's best. I like the pick and I think we're going to be happy that Hairston is on the team.

I never am a student of the draft, but my view of the Bills needs was the same as you. I wasn't desperate to get a high end corner, in part because McBeane have done so well putting solid corners on the field without spending a lot on them. But I also agree with you that if Hairston can start, the Bills have a very nice corner room. Of course, a few years ago I was typing "If Elam can start," and we know how that went. It isn't easy to play the corner the way McDermott wants it played.

Sorry to hear this. Sounds like a genuinely nice guy.

Exactly! What you say about last season is exactly how I see it: A reset year in which the general wisdom of McDermott's approach was demonstrated by the success he had with a bunch of players we all were worried about. This year they can afford to give up pics, of which they have plenty, because they have a solid team whose effectiveness was demonstrated last season. Now they need to add a difference Maker. I don't think the difference Maker is on offense. What they need is a stud, lineman or linebacker and I hope they trade up to get one.

Thanks for finding that. Good stuff in there. As for what is a shutdown corner, I think that fans and the media put a lot of emphasis on the Sauce Gardner types who have extraordinary quickness and have shown an ability to stick closely to even the fastest receivers on their cuts and changes of direction. They are remarkable athletes, but they are most useful only in defenses that play a lot of man-to-man and that want to force offenses to play only in a portion of the field by taking away the number one receiver. Belichick's Patriots played that way. That's why Belichick wanted Stefon Gilmore McDermott has been a leader in playing a more team-oriented defensive approach that requires the cornerbacks to be much more versatile. There have been very few cornerbacks good at both. Tre White is about as good as we've seen in terms of show those shutdown characteristics and playing in a team-oriented defense. Great shut down skills are somewhat wasted in a team-oriented defense, because the defense plays more zone and help schemes, and therefore the shutdown corners skills are wasted. Bills fans can argue about the approach. Sometimes I think that McDermott's ideal defensive lineup would have 11 guys all weighing between 200 and 260 pounds with good speed and serious competitiveness. It's as though he would like to play with 11 fast small linebackers. The wisdom in how McDermott wants to play is that the more specialized your players get - like having a shutdown corner or a monster one tech tackle - the easier it is for the offense to scheme away from that guy's special skills and toward that guy's weaknesses. McDermott wants 11 players on the field who have no serious weaknesses, and in order to do that, for most players that means avoiding guys with special skills.

I feel your pain.

You seem to think that there's a category - good players who used to play for the Bills. And you seem to think that everyone who is in that category is, by definition, no longer useful to the Bills. Thank goodness that Beane and McDermott actually have brains in their heads and can examine the case of each former Bill and see the differences between them.

I'm not ready to say absolutely yet, but I don't disagree. It's interesting to have this discussion with White having just signed. I think Benford could be another White, and by that I mean a star corner in this system but not a top three corner. I say that because at least the way the free agent market has defined the top three, it's always shut-down corners. I never thought White, good as he was, was a top-three shut-down corner, and I don't think Benford will be, either. What I've said for a quite a while is that the way McDermott wants to play the game, a shut-down corner doesn't matter to him as much as an all-round guy who is very good at man, zone, tackling, run support, and the team concept. So, while I love Benford and think he's just what the Bills want, I doubt the market ever will recognize him as top-three. (Actually, with his extension, the market may never have an opportunity to recognize him in his prime.)

I don't think it complicates much of anything. I'm sure Beane and McDermott love Tre, but there is no sentimentality involved here. There's no question that they had very frank conversations with Tre about something that he already fully understands: nobody is going to give him anything. Tre knows that he is not a long-term solution at any position on this team and that a younger, better player may come along at any time and move ahead of him, including a guy drafted next week. This is an upside, no downside signing, at least from a positional point of view. If somehow he's now fully recovered and he's back to something like his old self, it's a homerun. If he's healthy but has lost a step, then he's a better version of Dane Jackson - a guy who knows the defense inside and out, a guy who can step it at any time, always be in position, always contributing to the team. If he's less than either of those and injuries have taken too great a toll, he'll be gone. He'll understand, and he will thank the Bills for having given him the opportunity. And back to the homerun. If he can be what Benford is (which in my mind is very good but not quite what the younger Tre White was), then the Bills are really solid and versatile at corner. That would be two good cover corners, two smart zone corners, two run-stopping tacklers. That would allow the coaches to get more creative with their linebackers and safeties, just the way McDermott likes to play the game. Last one against the Lions was pretty bad, but most of the others he was in pretty good position and played the receiver pretty well. Clearly needed to clean some things up, but as we saw when he was with the Bills, he is almost always with his man and in position to make a play. That's what McDermott wants from his corners.

I agree. And I don't think it's a lot of stars, either. I'd like one real stud on the defense. I think the guys who got extended - Oliver, Rousseau, Bernard, Benford, are all really good at doing their jobs, but there isn't a star among them. If things work out well, Bosa could be the guy, and if he is, that could be enough to put them over the top. That's why I'm a fan of the Bills trading up this year. Package the first, a second, and some other picks to get up into the teens and go after a guy with the potential to be a real difference make. If the Bills got lucky and landed a guy like a Watt, a Bosa, a Parsons, or a Chris Jones, this defense would be real trouble for several seasons.

So, the Bills generally are getting good value in the draft, compared to consensus. That begs the question: Is Beane doing a good job, or is the consensus wrong? The real question is how well did teams draft when compared the to first three years of performance from the drafted players? A little tougher question to answer, but that is where the rubber meets the road.

Thanks for this. (You left off Jason Peters, who probably was the best offensive tackle ever to play for the Bills. I know most of his great years were with the Eagles, but he was a stud by the time he left Buffalo. He was already on a Hall of Fame trajectory.) I think you're point about corners and tight ends highlights a reality about those positions - they aren't game-changing positions, and you don't often find game-changing players at those positions. If you think about corners, what doesn it mean to have a shut down corner? Well, all it really means is that the game turns into 10-on-10 instead of 11-on-11. Shut-down corners don't win games; they just keep one player on the other team from beating you. Shut-down corners don't cause offenses to reshape their offense; the offense just limits their attack to less than the entire field. The offensive equivalent of a shut-down corner is the stud receiver - the Chases, Hills, Jeffersons, etc. Those guys can attack the entire field, so they actually do reshape the defense. They are, I think, more valuable than shut-down corners. I always thought it was interesting that for many years, Belichick built his defense around the shut-down corner. He had that other guy before he gave Gilmore a ton of cash. Between the two of them, the Pats had star corner talent for five or six years running. Belichick saw a real advantage in playing 10-on-10. I think the shut-down corner is no longer that valuable. Everyone, not just the Bills, is playing more zone these days, because it's the only way to cover the ever-changing route combinations offensives are attacking with. Playing straight man-to-man all day is a formula for losing, because offenses now always can find weaknesses to attack. Today, if you want to succeed playing strictly man, you need three really good cover corners, two good safeties, AND one or two good linebackers. Nobody has that. Zone is (and always has been) the way to cover your weaknesses, whether they are schematic weaknesses or personnel weaknesses.