Shaw66

Oh, okay. I think they still have some hope for him, but you may very well be right. I won't argue with you about that. Frankly, I was surprised that they didn't bring in more competition for him. Personally, I think TE is one of the least important positions on the team. I think the fact that they didn't go after someone better at TE says to me that McDermott agrees with me. Getting Sanders obviously was more important to the Bills than getting a TE. Wow. Still, I think that Ertz is just such a logical choice that I still expect it will happen.

Disagree about what? You think McBeane ae planning around the Super Bowl window closing?

Oh, I agree completely that they want a better tight end. As I said, I think it's maybe the only position on the field where McBeane feel they have a problem. I'm just saying that I expect they think that Knox still might be the long-term answer, that Ertz would only be a short-term solution, and that McBeane do not feel any urgency because the so-called Super Bowl window may be closing. They don't believe in a Super Bowl window.

The dreaded Super Bowl window. You can analyze team building in terms of the Super Bowl window all you want, but McBeane have been abundantly clear that they are not - I repeat they ARE NOT - operating on that assumption. They're operating on the intention that the team will get better, year over year, for a decade.

1. I think the Bills should get Ertz. I think TE may be the only position in the starting lineup where the Bills don't have a truly good football player. 2. I don't think that getting Ertz means they're moving on from Knox. I think it means that the Bills think that by getting Ertz they may be able to put a truly good football player at that position this year. The Bills also know, however, that by getting Ertz they could be getting Kelvin Benjamin. 3. As you say, there are a lot of ways the Bills might move on from Knox, but that way always will be about moving on after they have a reasonably long-term solution who is better. That's not Ertz - he might be better, but it's not likely he's a reasonably long-term solution. 4. What I see in Ertz is good speed for a tight end, good but somewhat inconsistent hands, good attitude, willing blocker. Players improve, and it's up to the Bills coaches to decide how much they think Knox might improve in areas where he is relatively weak. If he doesn't show some serious improvement this year, I expect the Bills will be looking more aggressively for a better football player who can be a longer-term solution. The Bills' model is that they don't want a revolving door at any position. They don't want to be plugging in an Ertz every year. Veteran acquisitions are to plug holes, not to build the roster.

I agree that's what you see and think, I've thought the same thing. But see my long post. I think they have a different vision. I think their vision is that they will get the best football players they can get, every year, and the coaches will figure out how to maximize the returns on the talent they have. They aren't looking for round pegs and round holes. Beane is just dumping the best talent he can find on McDermott and saying, "here, you're the chef."

I'm going to get run off this forum for saying this over and over, but I think you have to look at what the Patriots did to try to understand what the Bills are doing. I've often said McDermott is a closet Belichick fan, but I don't believe it. I think McDermott developed his system and approach by watching everyone and taking the best from everyone, including Belichick. But, because a lot of what Belichick did was the best, McDermott has a lot of Belichick in him. There was a time a few years ago when Belichick dazzled the league, going from run-dominated offense to pass-dominated offense from week to week. No one knew what to expect. In fact, sometimes it was a speed running game, sometimes a power running game. Belichick had years and years of no-name running backs. Sometimes it was a rookie, sometimes it was journeyman. They all had one thing in common - they weren't going to the Hall of Fame. I think McDermott wants his offense and his running game to be like that. Assuming (and I understand this assumption could be a thread on its own) that it's reasonable to try to be amoeba-like in that way, Singletary and Moss are certainly good enough to be the backs. Decent speed, decent power. In my mind, their only problem is they're too much alike. Maybe Breida can be the change of pace guy, better speed, maybe a little less power. My point is, I'm not sure it matters much. Would I like (and would McD like) a Chubb or that guy in New Orleans or some other guy who is a bigger homerun hitter than Singletary/Moss/Breida? Absolutely. But I think that McDermott's model (which is something like Belichick's model) is that he doesn't need a homerun hitter. Yes, he'd like one, and the offense would be adjusted to feature him more if he had one, but he doesn't think he needs one. You can tell he doesn't think he needs one, because we've all seen those three guys run, and McDermott has, too, and he hasn't told Beane to go get a more dynamic running back. I think it really comes back to the offensive line. The philosophy seems to be that the running backs are good enough, and the line has to do a better job creating the space for the backs to get past the line of scrimmage untouched. Any of those three backs is just fine if you can get them two yards past the line of scrimmage. So, I think the real question is whether the Swiss-army-knife approach that they seem to be taking on the offensive line will work. As you or someone else pointed out, it seems to be an odd collection of road graders, pass blockers and finesse players, which means the line doesn't have a cohesive personality. McDermott probably doesn't want a cohesive personality - that is, if you've got five nasties up there, you may be able to run the ball great but can't pass block. If you have pass blockers, you can't run. McDermott wants an offensive line that can do it all. Bottom line, I think McBeane intend to succeed the way Belichick succeeded - by getting the best football players they can and then with each, don't ask him to do things that don't fit his skill set. I mean, every offensive lineman has to run block, but if they know lineman X can't make a certain reach block, they adjust the offense so that he doesn't have to make that block. The objective is to have every guy on the field executing his assignment on every play, so there's no point in asking him to execute something you know he can't. What you do is adjust his assignment so that he's always doing things he can execute. That's why Belichick has so much success with guys off his bench filling in for injured starters. Bringing it back to the running backs, yes, they don't have some of the skills that you'd like to see in the running back room, but they have skills. McDermott views it as his job to find ways to put those guys in positions on the field where their skills are utilized and where the things they can't do don't matter all that much. I wouldn't be surprised if the Bills have a lot of success on defense this season, because of the success that Rousseau and Basham might have, for the same reason I just discussed. Neither one of these guys looks like the quintessential homerun hitting defensive player. They're different. But they both seem to have some special skills, and McDermott's philosophy is to get guys on the field and to maximize their skills. (Belichick, too. When he gets a Gilmore or a Moss or a Gronk, he gets a lot out of him.) I think McDermott is going to have a field day moving those two guys around the defensive line, and I think Oliver and Epenesa, and probably Hughes and Philips, all will benefit from it. Frankly, I can see Edmunds being a big beneficiary, too, because the Bills may have two physical freaks - Edmunds and Rousseau, on the field at the same time. If I'm right about the defense, it will be because the Bills don't operate with a rigid scheme and try to fit players into it, and they don't exactly build their team around players, either. McDermott is trying to do something different. He's trying to have a mix of players that allows him to play multiple schemes, and he's letting the talents of his players dictate, to some extent, what those schemes are. Even though it may be hard to see how they fit together in a classic dominating defense, I think the potential is there for a different reason: the potential is there because the Bills have a lot of guys on defense with skills that can be disruptive. Think about it: Hyde and Poyer in the back are solid but also threats to make big plays - maybe not Polamalu big plays, but make plays in the defensive backfield, the offensive backfield, and in between. White is someone the offensive coordinator has to scheme around. Milano, Edmunds, Oliver, Basham, and Rousseau all are potential disruptors because of their size and speed. Epenesa and Hughes, although not as dynamic, also are potential playmakers. The model is get good football players and figure out how to make it work. That's what's coming on offense, and that's the challenge of the running game. The running backs and the linemen are good enough to dominate if their talents are properly utilized. You can tell the Bills believe that, because they didn't make major personnel changes anywhere in the run game. Trust the process.

This is excellent. Thanks.

Well, sure, but if he were so tired that he couldn't be effective the Bills would take him off the field. He is able, for sure, when he's on the field, and extra snaps certainly pads his stats. Great point!

Well, I don't think that proves anything. I wish it did, I surely wish it did. However, over past three seasons, Edmunds probably played 20% more snaps than whatever linebacker is #2. He plays every down, every game, except for injury. (Except maybe Wagner.) What's percentage of tackles for no gain or for loss measured against total snaps? Is he still #2? Or is he #22?

I think there's some truth to this. McBeane do want a lot of flexibility among their players. However, I think their philosophy makes a little more sense when you think it all the way through. Yes, they want position flexibility, which means that a lot of the players are tweeners. The benefit they're shooting for, however, is to be able to play any style. They want to be able to do what the Patriots did to teams for many seasons, which was to change how they attack from week to week. Teams don't know what to prepare for, and the Bills have the opportunity, even within games, to change their style of play. Now, I don't know if they can achieve that goal, but that's the objective. As for the run game, I think their plan is that they just need a little better execution to create just a little more room so the Bills running backs can get into the hole and then use their ability to break tackles to get better yardage than last season. I don't know if they can achieve that, either, but I think that's the goal.

The Bills offered tours to season ticket holders a few years ago. I went for the tour. The tour was interesting, but it also was fun just to be inside the stadium when it was empty and nothing at all was going on. Interesting to see it empty and imagine it full. If the Bills ever offer you a tour, take it.

I certainly don't think he peaked in 2020. Not close. I agree, he will have some decline physically, but all that really means is that he won't run as much. He'll become a 200-yard rushing guy, like more or less all QBs. But it takes longer than three years for QBs to become expert at the mental game. It takes five or six years for QBs to get into their prime, mentally. Allen is still growing mentally - he isn't close to done. Assuming he continues to improve, his mental development will overcome any physical decline. Peyton was much better in his final years in Indy, even though he'd become more or less immobile. Allen is great slipping tackles in the pocket, a lot like Big Ben. Allen's go great size. He's going to be outstanding from the pocket in a few years.

One of my favorite sports quotes of all time. When Tasker was having success as a receiver late in his career, Kelly said something like "Steve Tasker would be an All-Pro receiver if he started regularly." Something like that. When asked about what Kelly said, Tasker said, "Comments like that are the reason the NFL has a drug policy."

I just spent ten minutes trying to figure out who JHC is and when he was added to the Bills roster! Next time, a comma would save me a lot of work! Personally, I don't think Sanders will have a big year. Instead, I think he's going to have mediocre stats with some big, big plays in crunch time. That's who he is now, I think.

I think Beas became one of my all-time favorite Bills when I saw his end-of-season interview in January. First, I loved how someone aked whether he'd need surgery to fix the injured knee he played on throughout the playoffs. Matter-of-fact, low-key, he says "My knee is fine. I broke my fibula. It will be fine." I think every reporter in the room dropped their pencils. Then someone asked whether the loss in the AFC championship game will motivate him in the 2021 season. He seemed almost in pain when he said, "I'm as motivated as I can be. I don't need to lose games to be motivated." Just love the guy.

I agree, except for this: He has made $62 million through 2020. After tax, call it $35 million. Spend $1 million a year to live, leaves $25 million. Plus investment earnings, he easily has over $30 million saved, maybe as much as $50. A guy in that position, a guy with integrity, if he isn't enjoying it anymore, might actually walk from the $6 million. All pure speculation.

Not that we actually know anything, but it's interesting to think that he might not make the final 53, or he might voluntarily retire. Both of those things are possible, but I'd guess that's not happening. These guys stay in great shape, and although it's true that guys hit the wall sometimes, I think it's more likely that he's physically the same guy this year that he was last year, and that's easily good enough to play from a physical point of view. Also, the Bills wouldn't have signed him if he weren't an intense competitor - that's McBeane's M.O. And we heard enough from Sanders and about him in the off-season to know that he's all about winning. Finally, I think the Bills really value his experience and attention to detail. They brought him in because he offers the precision in route running and I think other aspects of the game that Brown wasn't as good at. I expect he'll work his way into an important role with Diggs and Beas. Three pros. So there are all those things that suggest that he's likely to be the number 2 receiver or, at worst, the number 4. Having said that, however, it's quite possible that Hodgins or someone else continues to grow and sometime during the season takes the roster spot from Sanders. Something I realized a few years ago in talking about the future of Zay Jones was that the #4 spot on the receiving depth chart, and even more so the #5 spot, is not simply about how good your are. The #4 receiver isn't necessarily the 4th best receiver; it's the guy who helps the team most in that role. So if Davis makes the starting three, then even thought Sanders almost certainly would be the fourth best receiver on the team, he might be at risk, depending on what the Bills expect of the #4 spot. Even Sanders doesn't get the 4 spot, he almost certainly won't be kept around to take the 5 spot. It will be interesting to see. I agree. And especially if the Bills don't have a true blocking back, they'll need a TE who fills the H-back role. I think the Bills will have four tight ends.

That guy needs to start selling tiny tables. He'll make a fortune!

Thanks for this. It's still early in his career, but I think that this is why Allen has a great chance to be one of the true greats of all time. Assuming, and that's a big assumption, Allen can develop into a mature, quality field general. his ability to deliver the ball farther and faster than other QBs gives him a big advantage. Drew Brees, or Tom Brady for that matter, saw opportunities that they knew their arms couldn't complete. Some of those opportunities, Allen HAS the arm. There probably are one or two completions a game that Allen gets that pretty much no one else except Rodgers and Mahomes completes.

OJ and Moulds.

I agree, but I found the whole episode puzzling. At the time it sounded to me like the staff was surprised when he showed up having dropped so much weight. I expected McDermott to say explain in a press conference why thought he should drop that weight, but he never explained.

I've wondered about how it happened. My theory is that the Bills dropped the ball a bit. That is, with COVID, they just lost track of him on the off season. I think they told him they thought he would benefit by coming in lighter without giving him a target. I think that they didn't understand how highly motivated he'd be, and he decided he'd lose every ounce he could. Whatever the reason it happened, I think it isnt happening this season. It's one of the reasons people expect a jump.

Thanks. I'm not making any predictions, but I don't disagree with you. My daughter played basketball in college. When she was a freshman, I asked the coach what it took to get playing time. He said the player has to be show the ability to play defense the way I want. That's when she'll get on the floor. If she plays defense well with the minutes she gets, then we'll start to ask her to begin to be productive on offense. I think about that a lot as I watch rookies arrive on the McDermott Bills. They have to work their way onto the field, and it isn't about physical talent. It's about learning and executing your assignment, it's about being smart on the field, about recognizing what's happening and responding the way you're supposed to. Easier perhaps for receivers, but for a DE, it's tough. For Oliver, it's tough. For Harrison, it was tough. I think the rookie year for these guys, Epenesa included, is just about learning what's expected of you, at OTAs, at camp, in preseason games and regular season games. It's all about just understanding what you're supposed to do. The second year, OTAs forward, is when you're expected to show that you belong. So, yeah, if Epenesa is bringing the right stuff to the field, this is when we'll start to see it. And year three - this is really the year for Oliver and Phillips.

Could be. Also, the Bills know how to run a COVID restricted training camp at OBD and it's simply simpler to run camp there again than trying to make SJF work.