Shaw66

There's a theory I hadn't heard before. That would have been one of the all-time great draft moves! There's always uncertainty, but I don't think the Bills had any greater uncertainty with Allen than teams have with any top-10 pick. The leap of faith is what it looked like from our perspective, because all we had to go on was some highlights, some lowlights, a mediocre record, etc. My point is that the Bills knew a lot more about him than we did, and what they knew meant they weren't taking the leap of faith that we saw. We had a big information gap; Beane closed that gap with careful scouting and interviewing.

And you did your usual excellent job. Taught me some things.

They've said as much. They talk about the first time they met him, and they were a little puzzled about him. It was 15 minutes or something, and it didn't go particularly well. I don't recall, but I think it was because Josh didn't know how to handle the encounter. Then they had dinner with him that night, and that's when they realized how great his intangibles were. Josh relaxed, and the more they heard, the more they knew that his intangibles matched his outstanding physical abilities. From there, they kept doing all the usual digging to be sure that what they thought they saw at dinner was the real Josh. As they talked to more people and to Josh again, they realized he was the real deal. Then it was a matter of Josh falling the Beane figuring out how to move up. On draft night, you could tell that McDermott and Beane were sure they got it right. They could see it. What still gets me is that the teams ahead of the Bills didn't see it. They were interviewing him and taking him out to dinner, and yet they liked Mayfield and Darnold and Barkley and Chubb better.

JW - Thanks for responding. I appreciate it. I do apologize for my tone. It was unfair to you.

Solid. I agree. Not dominant, which we'd all like, but solid. I don't know, but I'd guess that McDermott is designing a defense that stops the pass effectively and stops the run well enough to get by. I think McDermott believes that if he acquires and commits the kind of resources necessary to be a top-three run-stopping defense, then he's not going to be able to stop the pass the way he wants. The Bills gave up 120 yards a game rushing last season. Top 20. They had three bad games. McD probably would be happy if he could shave 10 yards off that by bringing those three bad games down into the 150s or so. And McDermott probably thinks he can do that with scheme and matchups. He is not willing to bulk up the defensive line, because the bulk will hurt the pass rush he's trying to build.

I dont know if they will be good enough to stop the run. What I said is that McBeane tgunk this is the way to go to build an effective line. You may disagree, but you aren't getting your wish. Bulls will be undersized this year, and we will see how that works.

I expect less girth than you do. Except when Wilfork was there, New England often played without big guys in the middle. They played with tough, solid, smart guys who executed. Looking at the personnel the Bills have assembled, I think they're trying to do something similar.

Bojo wasn't good enough. Every player on the team has specific role designed to contribute to the team's success. Moreso than almost any player on the team, the punter has only way to contribute to the team, and that is to kick the ball where the special teams coach wants the ball to be kicked. Sometimes long, sometimes shorter, sometimes to one sideline or the other, sometimes low with roll, sometimes with a reverse bounce. Punters have gotten very good at those skills, and that was not Bojo's strength. Bojo had the ability to kick the ball high and long fairly consistently. He isn't erratic like long punters used to be. But Bojo wasn't very good at doing all those other things consistently. I think last season was Bojo's opportunity to show real development toward being a good control punter while continuing to be able to tap into the power he has. In my opinion, he didn't make very much progress in that direction, so when Bojo said he'd prefer to be on the west coast, the Bills said "okay with us" and began looking for another punter. In the end, I don't think Bojo did consistently enough those things he was asked to do. If he did, the Bills would have worked harder to keep him.

I know what you're saying, and I'm no saying he's a bust. Yes, he still could emerge as special, but I think the chances of that are shrinking. Why? Because a guy who's special usually at least shows some signs of greatness in his first couple of years, and u haven't seen any of those signs in Oliver. Oliver was a top 10 pick and he's played more like a guy taken at the back end of the first. He could play ten seasons in Buffalo and be a solid player throughout, he could be a Jerry Hughes. All I mean is that I think that people expecting him to break through and become a guy who draws a lot of double teams probably will be disappointed. He hasn't shown that kind of ability yet, and that's what people expected of him when he was drafted.

Not so sure the draftees will have that kind if impact, but that is the idea,

Good comparison. I think this defense will be tougher. This defense is going to be a well organized gang.

I agree. I doubt they will ever be known as smashmouth. Just tough and prepared. Never out of position. Not missing tackles. Just solid and intense, always fighting. Scrappy.

I often fall back to what the Patriots did. The Patriots succeeded on defense without a lot of great players. They succeeded by being really smart, really well prepared, and really intense. They'd have a shut-down corner, and maybe a really good linebacker. And for a while they had Wilfork. But that defense was a good year after year, and as the personnel changed, the defense was good. I think McDermott believes he can do something similar. They are going to be smart, determined, and aggressive. We'll see if it works.

To you and Doc. I agree about Roberts. I think we all tend to be stuck on our memories of White Shoes and Deion and DeSean Jackson. I think TD returns are now pretty much things of the past, because all teams are trying to eliminate explosive plays and have gotten good at that. A really good punt returner now is a guy who is a constant threat to get you 20-30 yards, get you out of your end and to midfield or beyond. That's what Roberts could do, consistently. Those 20-30 yards are really important, because it allows the offense to open the whole playbook and not to worry about the occasional negative play. I also am guessing, without any real knowledge, that Stevenson is a bigger threat to make the team, and a threat to McKenzie, than many fans think. Beane has said often that he tends to draft for need in the back end of the draft, so it says something about what he thinks about the return game when he drafts a punt returner. Remember, last season they took Bass in the 6th round when they had a perfectly satisfactory kicker under a reasonable contract. This year they took Stevenson in the 6th when they had a perfectly satisfactory return man under a reasonable contract. As for the rest of the special teams, we know that it is not an area that McDermott and Beane will ignore. I'm sure they have the kinds of players they want on the special teams, and I'm sure they will be coached with the same precision and attention to detail that McDermott demands of the offense and defense. Not likely that the special teams will hurt the Bills this season.

I saw the title and thought this would be a thread about the defense - Lean and mean, or no? In fact, I think that IS the question about the defense. It's a defense, physically and in terms of style, that's designed be tough to pin down - really quick off the ball, attacking in multi-faceted ways, and quick to the ball. To play that way, they will be short on bulk. They aren't going have many immovable objects on the field. The question is whether they'll be mean enough. Whether they come out every weekend with enough fight in them to over come what might be size and strength disadvantages at certain matchups. They'll be smart and well coached. Will they be scrappy?

Correct about this. I'm partial to the written word, and not having Carucci's words is a loss for me. He's done a seriously good job for a long time. Congratulations to him.

Not in a hurry. Fix it by November, December at the latest. Earlier is nice but not necessary.

A different way of saying what I said. Pile of humanity is a great description. The line will be better. More experience, better depth, Ford back, and maybe one or two of those big rookies wins a starting role.

I think 2021 improvement in the running is almost a given. First, it would be hard not to get at least a little better, because it was pretty awful in 2020. Awful in the sense that the running game wasn't anywhere close to being a dependable offensive option. I think it will improve significantly, for two reasons: offensive line and coaching. Everyone is working to improve the running game, but other than learning to make the best judgments behind the line of scrimmage - the right first cut, the backs have the least room for improvement. They aren't going to get faster, stronger, quicker, any of that. But what we have from Singletary and Moss in their rookie seasons was solid ability to get into and out of the hole, when the hole is there. They aren't game breakers in that situation, but they both are very good at hitting the hole and creating some yardage - 3-5-8-12 yards. If they're healthy, the run game will improve if the offensive line creates the opportunities. And, yes, Breida is the wildcard in the whole situation. If the breakout Breida reemerges, he could have a big season. It's about the determination of the offensive line to win their battles, whether with strictly speed and muscle or with teamwork and scheme. It will be some of both, of course. They will belong a new level of ferocity to how they play, because they know they need to do that. And they will work together better than a season ago, because they have that experience together and because they want to. And if one or another of the rookies breaks into the starting lineup, that would mean there has been a serious talent upgrade - someone has to be a seriously good lineman to win a starting job as a rookie. It's about the coaching because it's the coaches' job to put the players in situations where they can win. They have to design and run plays where the linemen can play to their strengths, whatever they are, plays where players' weaknesses aren't exposed and easy to attack. Needless to say, McDermott has been saying this to Daboll and his crew since last season ended. And they didn't need to be told - they know it. So they're working on the running game, for sure, and they will execute better, for sure. I expect the running game to be much improved.

There have been a couple of comments about Oliver. I've pretty much given up hope that Oliver is going to be something special, and I'll be delighted if he proves me wrong. I think we all talked ourselves into believing that Oliver was the next Aaron Donald, and he isn't. If he were, we would have seen some of it by now. Yes, he played all last season without Star beside him, and that probably limited his production a bit. But a great player doesn't need teammates for him to at least show flashes of his greatness. I have to admit that I've transferred my hopes for greatness to Rousseau, and those hopes are probably unfounded, as well. At least Oliver was a consensus top 10 draft pick, so there was some reason to hope he'd be special. Rousseau is a unique guy, and maybe he'll surprise everyone, but no team in the draft saw him as a potential Jadeveon Clowney (to name an apparent superstar who wasn't), let alone an Aaron Donald. I think that expectations for the D line should be different. My expectation is that they will make plays across the whole line, with no one standing out. If Star can anchor the middle with help from Phillips, then Oliver, Hughes, Basham, Epenesa, Addison, and Rousseau each should make their share of plays. They'll be running stunts and games all day. If Addison or Hughes ends up in a reduced role because Epenesa and/or one of the rookies emerges quickly, then we're looking at great, great depth in the rotation. And I don't have a sense of what the other names on the roster might contribute. I'm not looking for a star to emerge on the d line, but I expect solid improvement across the line.

Contrary to what I suggest, but I think there's some truth in what you say. Bills probably already have the two replacement DEs, so losing three and needing to replace only one means there should indeed be opportunities to acquire another impact player. I will say, however, that I don't think that's how McBeane plan. Their plan is not to get good when they can get the right player. The plan is to get good now, stay good, and get better year after year with learning and acquisitions in the ordinary course.

Yeah, Deek, I hear you. After years and years of excitement about a Mario, a Dareus, a Spiller, and the endless debates about Taylor and EJ and Fitz, this off-season was like a balloon that never inflated enough to have the air let out of it. But there was an important point to what I wrote, a point I talk about a lot. I think that in the NFL, coaching is more important than talent, and I think the Bills 2021 off-season demonstrates the McDermott and Beane think so, too. Beane was all about improving talent wherever he could, but not because the talent he already had wasn't good enough. He wasn't filling holes, and he wasn't solving problems for McDermott. The league creates opportunities to get better players, and Beane certainly was going to take advantage of the opportunity. So he did, with some nice but unspectacular free agent deals, and by drafting players with upside when his turn came. The off-season tells us that McDermott and Beane didn't think they needed to add a special talent to win. They didn't need to trade again to get someone like Diggs. They didn't need to trade up in the draft. Instead, Beane and McDermott believe in the process, in the continuous improvement of the individual players and the team. They knew the day after the loss to KC that they would be better in 2021, better in important ways. The new talent Beane was able to bring in just helps.

Hi Thurm - thanks for your usual thoughtful comments. I didn't know exactly how to word the Trubisky competition thing. I don't think, and I thought I was clear, that Trubisky has a snowball's chance of being the starting QB. However, he's a serious NFL-level talent, and I'm quite sure there will be times in camp when he makes plays that turn heads. He'll make some excellent escapes from the pocket, and he'll make some big-time throws. Allen will see those, and he'll know that this is a different guy than Barkley or Fromm. And in the back of his head, he may feel a little push. Up until now, the only competition Allen had was in his head - trying imagine how Mahomes or Rodgers would do something if they were in camp. This summer he's going to have a real NFL starter standing next to him, with a real NFL arm, and Allen won't have to imagine anything. He'll know that his job is to be better than the guy standing right there. As for Edmunds, I don't disagree with what you say. And Niagara Bill mischaracterized what I said. I didn't say that the Bills need Edmunds to be a superstar for the Bills to succeed. I was writing about continuous improvement, the methodology McDermott uses, and I was commenting on the guys whose improvement is most important. Your right that coming out of college Edmunds wasn't a Taylor or a Watt or an Urlacher or a Kuechly. He was highly regarded, but top 10 in the draft is the real indication that the coaches and scouts think the guy is special. Teams didn't value Edmunds that highly. However, his size and speed make him special in the defense that McDermott likes to play. He has a chance to be great, because he has those attributes and he plays a position where he can be a dominant force. He can be to the defense what Allen is to the offense, but not in exactly the same way. Edmunds has going to take the team on his back and carry them to victory. But if he plays the way he could play, he will make almost every other guy on the defense better. The better Edmunds plays, the better all the linebackers and DBs will be. Even the dline will be better, if they know have a human vacuum cleaner back there, a guy who stops the ball carrier the line misses. Like, as you say, Keuchly. McDermott is about continuous improvement, and Edmunds gets no pass on that. The Bills coaches no doubt are going to be setting ambitious goals for Edmunds, ambitious because he's good enough to accomplish them. So as I said, I can agree that he may never be dominant like those others, but I don't think it's unreasonable for the Bills to expect him to become a dominant playmaker in the middle of the defense. I'm just guessing, but I think many of us have misjudged what the Beasley thing was and is all about. As time has gone by, and as no other shoes have dropped, I'm increasingly getting the impression that Beasley has strong feelings about what people can tell him to do, and he got frustrated with what he was hearing. He didn't say he would quit under the current rules, but he said he had made enough money that he could afford to quit - those are two different things. He wasn't announcing that there was a rule that he would not comply with. I think it was all more general than that. And I think it's less of a deal when I see that there are two teams with less than 50% vaccinated (not the Bills), and it sounds like plenty of others are under 75%. So, the Bills aren't going to be operating under tougher restrictions than many other teams, and there will be pressure on the league and the union for those restrictions to be eased. I doubt under those circumstances that Beasley is going to be so unhappy that he will retire, or that any of this will be a distraction. McDermott managed COVID last season; this season will be easier, not tougher. Do I prefer that players just comply and keep their mouths shut about this? Yes, because it's simpler if everyone is vaccinated and the press eats this stuff up, but McDermott is going to support his player, his player will feel the support and see that he can fit into the Bills' plans without being asked to do anything significant he doesn't want. Anyway, thanks for your comments.

Sorry about the name player thing. Plug in "grab" and you will get the meaning. I used a word that some people might use to refer to, uh, well, use your imagination.

As training camp approaches, there’s not much to say about a team that went 13-3 with two playoff wins last season. Not much to say except to ask, “Can they do more this season?” It’s been a long time since Bills fans have been asking that question about their team – almost 30 years. Back then, season after season, the Bills were winning in unprecedented fashion, going undefeated in the playoffs year after year for four consecutive seasons, but never winning the final game. Bills fans were asking, “Can they win just one more game?” The Bills aren’t there yet. They’re close, but the question still is “can they do more?” During the off-season, Bills fans often answered that question with another question: “What personnel changes can the Bills make to get better?” They put aside the comment that Sean McDermott made on more than one occasion to the effect that he was ready to play the 2021 season with the roster that didn’t go quite far enough in 2020. In other words, he said it’s about the process, not about the players. And so it was that in the off-season, the Bills stayed true to their process and made about as few personnel changes as we’ve seen in decades. They re-signed or extended a few key players, like Milano, Williams, and Feliciano, they unloaded one key player – John Brown – and replaced him with Emmanuel Sanders, who may be an upgrade for a year or two. Other than that, the Bills signed the usual collection of free agents who have some potential to shore up the lines, help out the special teams, or complement the running game. They look like good signings, but they weren’t the kind of acquisitions that generate headlines. After the initial rush to acquire players in free agency, the Bills conducted the draft with about as little fanfare as possible. They didn’t trade a first-round pick for an emerging star, as they did last season to acquire Diggs. They didn’t trade up to ***** a name player. They chose solid football players, unproven but with upside. Big linemen, a fast, small receiver, and a collection of defensive backs. Some may contribute in 2021, some may emerge in another year or two, and some will not make it. Is there an instant starter among the draftees? The best prospects are Greg Rousseau, simply because he seems to be an unusual talent, or Boogie Basham, simply because he seems to bring all the fundamentals. Spencer Brown, Jack Anderson, and Tommy Doyle all bring the kind of size and talent to the team that can make an impact but absent injuries, it’s a lot to expect that any of them can compete their way into a starting job as a rookie. It’s about the process. It’s about everyone in the organization, particularly coaches and players, continuing to do all the things they learned last season and learning other things to make themselves better and make the team better. With that as the objective, it’s about teaching everyone new to the team how to do what the Bills did in 2020 while also teaching them the things the veterans are learning for 2021. The process is about competing, about knowing, as Jerry Hughes certainly knows, that his job is to teach all he can to Rousseau and Basham and Epenesa so that they can compete for and eventually take his job. It’s about taking every rep in practice like it’s playoff preparation, knowing that constant commitment to competing on the field makes everyone stronger. Remarkably, Brandon Beane even went for competition at the one position where no one thought competition was possible – quarterback. In Mitch Trubisky, Beane added a player who plays the same game Allen does – throw, run, attack the entire field, although Trubisky does none of it like Allen can. Still, Trubisky was a number two pick overall, and he’s had plenty of moments where he’s looked like a viable starter. In addition to creating something that at least looks like competition for Allen, the move was a brilliant upgrade at backup QB. Trubisky clearly brings more physical talent to the team than Barkley offered, and he brings the experience that Fromm sorely lacks. Trubisky is almost a dream backup in Buffalo, even if only for one season, as most observers suspect. Trubisky will want to start, and there’s virtually no chance he will win a QB competition with Allen. In the meantime, however, he will have given the Bills another year to decide how strongly they feel about Fromm as a backup. The process is about continuous improvement, about everyone being better at their job than a year ago. Everyone. It’s about Hyde and Poyer being a better tandem than they were in 2020. It’s about Tre’Davious White being better. It’s about Epenesa, Phillips, Oliver, Dawkins, Ford, Moss, Singletary raising the level of their games, and about becoming leaders on the team and not just prospects. Most of all, it’s about Josh Allen’s and Tremaine Edmunds’ improvement. Allen and Edmunds have physical talents that make them capable of being truly transcendent players in the NFL, the kind of players who define the position for their era. Allen showed in 2020 that he can be that kind of player. Still, Josh Allen needs to be better in 2021. Ironically for Allen, being better may mean doing less, at least in terms of stats. Better for Allen is running less. Better for Allen is reading defenses at another level, and making the best decisions – decisions that might pull his personal stats down a bit but push wins up a bit. Better is by being an even better leader. Edmunds hasn’t had his breakout season, and the clock is running. Having transcendent physical ability and determination isn’t enough unless it translates into on-field excellence. This is a guy who, physically, could dominate play the way a Lawrence Taylor, a J.J. Watt, a Brian Urlacher, or a Luke Kuechly could. To be dominant, Edmunds must raise his game another level, or two or three levels, and he and the Bills are looking for that kind of improvement. The upside on both sides of the ball is clear. The defensive line is poised to be a force, with Star Lotulelei returning, Oliver and Phillips improving, Hughes, Addison, Epenesa, Rousseau, and Basham all contributing, and with the potential for one or another role player to emerge from camp. Starting linebacking is fine for now, and could be outstanding if Edmunds takes that next step. Behind them is some young and unproven talent. And the defensive backfield is solid and has young talent like Dane Jackson, Jaquan Johnson, and Siran Neal continuing to grow into good depth. Offensive improvement starts with the line, where the entire unit returns, having learned the lessons of 2020 and prepared to improve, particularly in the running game. It’s hard to ignore the talent across the front line, or their commitment to the game. This is a group that WANTS to run the ball in 2021 and WANTS to protect Allen. Cody Ford will return, intending to begin to make the contribution he’s capable of, and the three drafted rookies will come to camp intending to win starting jobs. The offensive line should take a big step this season, and if one of the rookies should prove to be good enough and win a starting job, so much the better. Singletary and Moss, of course, will be looking to redeem themselves, to show that the promise both have flashed can become a consistent on-field reality. Matt Breida, Beane’s other great backup addition, has something to prove. With improved offensive line play, at least one of the three should emerge is a true feature backup. Two would be even better. Diggs and Beasley can be counted on being Diggs and Beasley. Diggs will work to get better, and Beasley will be focused on football and not distracted by the COVID talk. It’s hard to imagine Beasley being distracted in practice or the games. Sanders is a bit of a risk, but he’s likely to be able flash some big play ability in a complementary role. Gabriel Davis should only get better. Isaiah McKenzie should continue to contribute, unless rookie Marquez Stevenson lights up training camp with unique skills that win him the role as return man and gadget player. Tight end is the only positional question that doesn’t have a good answer. Maybe Knox can become truly consistent, catching the ball, blocking, and avoiding mistakes. He has shown some big-play capability, but he hasn’t shown that he is the answer. If somehow Knox can step up his play and become a consistent threat, his importance to the offense would exceed his actual stats. Will each and every prayer for improvement be answered? No. It never works that way. Some players simply plateau, and there are injuries. Age takes it toll, sometimes unexpectedly. But the process builds a stronger and stronger team, year after year, by challenging everyone to take steps forward, individually and as a team. If the process really works, the 2021 Bills could dominate the league, with the best QB leading the best offense and with a big, aggressive defense, that meshes youth and experience in a confusing, multi-faceted machine. What about Kansas City? Sure, they’ve got plenty of offense and a special defense, but the Bills have the potential to close the gaps, which aren’t big, on both sides of the ball and surpass the Chiefs. The Bills could be that good. Sean McDermott and Brandon Beane have said for years that their goal is to build a team that can compete consistently, year after year, for championships. Last season, sooner than many people expected, myself included, they competed. Lost, eventually, but competed. In 2021, the Bills should be better. The process at work.