Shaw66

Interesting comparison. Rousseau isn't that strong, at least not yet, but the comparison is quite good.

I think this is a pretty fair assessment. I've quickly gotten more positive about him than that, but this is certainly defensible. The thing that is most intriguing about this guy is your comment about agility. Yeah, he probably could get a little more agile, but that's a difficult thing to improve dramatically. The thing about Rousseau is that his other skills give him the same result as straight on agility. That's what Collinsworth is talking about in the brief clip someone posted, and it's what Beane talked about in his presser. Somehow, this guy gets his hands on the QB. As Collinsworth said, he looks like he's all arms and legs flailing around, but he ends up with his hands on the QB. Beane talked about him being a finisher. Watch the videos. He isn't exactly agile, but he flops and turns and makes plays over and over with this hands. Forces fumbles, shoe-string tackles. He just has a knack for making plays on the ball, and he does with a physical style that is unusual, if not unique. And he's doing it without any technique. He just comes off the line, makes contact, makes a read and then separates and gets to the target. Wait until he learns to his hands as weapons against the blocker, and he could be devastating. This is a guy who was playing wide receiver and free safety five years ago, and now he's playing DE and maybe DT. He brings an usual skill set.

Wow. Listen to Weissman. He says Rousseau is so unusual that Weissman wouldn't be surprised if Rousseau start from day one. He didn't say that would happen, but he thinks the guy has attributes that are unteachable. In any case, he thinks Rousseau is at least a sub-package player rushing from the edge on third downs. He also thinks Rousseau may be a devastating 3-tech tackle. He thinks the peculiar skills he has just can't be handled by NFL guards, so if Rousseau isn't perfect on the edge, Weissman says the Bills can put some weight on Rousseau play him inside. He was just raving about him, and this is a former NFL scout, not a Bills homer.

Thanks for this. Marino is really good. Has a great explanation of Beane's style - the kind of players he's looking for. It's very well done. Plus, he scouted Rousseau in detail before the draft, and he reads his whole analysis. It's excellent. Haven't heard Weissman yet. Thought the same thing. Reach?

This is an excellent point. At least on the highlight reels, he always sees what's going on and reacting to it. And part of the ability to see and react is the way he uses his hands to stay in contact with but off the blocker - by staying off the blocker he can see what's going on around him.

I just watched this, and didn't listen to the commentary. They show the same plays over and over again. Watch his legs - he stays low and wide with his feet - he gets his hands on the blocker but keeps his body free, and when he reads the play, he's athletic enough to step away from the block and pursue the play. In the NFL, the linemen are stronger and that won't work so well for Rousseau unless he gets stronger, too. But just watch how athletic he is. He's always ready to make the next athletic move, to change direction, to make contact with the ball carrier. He does it on the edge, and he does it in the middle, too. Every play he's a threat to run away from the blocker and get to the ball. I think he looks skinny on the video. I think he was playing at 6'6", 240. He's bigger now, but on the video he looks like all arms and legs.

Bado - This is a really good description of what I see on the highlights of his play. I just commented on his hands, but you captured it better. His athleticism helps him find his way to the quarterback, somehow. Half the time he looks like he's completely out of control when he gets there, but then his hands find the ball, or find an ankle, or find a handful of jersey. He does look like the opposite of Shaq. Shaq is solid, but not a closer. This guy looks like a closer - when he gets there, he's going to make a play. I know he's put on weight since 2019, and it's clear from the video that he could carry more weight. It's also clear from the video that he has very little technique. He played offense in high school, I guess until his senior year, and it's easy to imagine that they just put him on the field as a defender and said "go get the ball carrier." He didn't need technique to beat high schoolers, and he didn't have time to learn any. Then he missed most of his true freshman season. I think his 2019 film shows a guy who is far from reaching his potential.

Okay, I've had a little while to digest this. I have no idea whether this pick will turn out well or not. It's a shot in the dark, kind of uncharacteristic for Beane. Well, characteristic in one sense - he's unpredictable. The Rousseau pick looks a bit like the Edmunds pick - take a long, skinny guy who is something of a project and see if you can make him into a monster defender. Edmunds was less of a question mark, but teams weren't quite sure what to make of him. Beane went after him enthusiastically when other teams were hesitant. Now he's gone after Rousseau. Rousseau was a receiver in high school, and you can tell watching his highlights. His full season at Miami, it was all about his athleticism and his hands. He gets his hands on the QB, on the ball, on the ball carrier. He has hands like a basketball rebounder. But his lack of technique, absence of power moves, etc. also is apparent. The guy's upside is almost unimaginable. He looks like he could play at 280 - put 20 pounds of muscle on him over the next two years. He is high motor. He's athletic. Teach him some technique. He's already shown that he can play inside a bit, and when he's bigger he actually might be able to hold his own in there. McDermott loves that flexibility. Who knows what Rousseau could become? Don't get all bent out of shape here, because I'm not saying it will happen, but he has the ingredients to be a disruptor like JJ Watt. And, of course, if Rousseau is already better than we think, if he can be an impact player by November of 2021, then the pick is a homerun - a special edge rusher added to the defense this season is probably the single biggest improvement the Bills could make. But it's an extraordinary gamble to take with your first-round pick. Safer gamble than a pick like Maybin, because the Bills are a good team and can afford to miss on a player more than the Bills could a decade ago. On the other hand, the Bills are close to the top, and getting a guy who could contribute as a rookie, especially getting a rookie with high probability of being able to replace one of the safeties over the next couple of seasons, would add to the Bills' competitiveness. I default to the faith I have in McDermott and Beane. I think the pick doesn't look like as big a gamble to them as it looks to the fans. I would guess the McBeane have gotten to know Rousseau well enough to know that he was the work ethic and intensity that they want in every player. I would guess that they are quite sure he won't be a bust - that is, he isn't a guy they will look at three years from now and say, "well, that was a mistake." I think they decided, they know, that Rousseau will be at least a solid contributor and at best the steal of the first round of the 2021 draft. I like it. However, gambling like this puts the pressure on the second day picks. Beane needs to find a couple of solid contributors.

Thanks for your reviews. IF he's four on your list, I'm happy.

I like trading down, but there's no way Beane will trade down. He'll either trade up or stay put. Trade up if there's a guy they rate really high who fills a perceived need. That's like there's a guy at 22 who they rated 12. Something like that. Or they'll take someone at 30? Why? Because there will almost certainly be someone they rated around 20 available then. Why? Well, because quarterbacks are so highly valued, some teams will take QBs who aren't really rated as first rounders but who are too valuable to them to pass on. Plus, teams rate players differently. Plus, there are some really talented guys, first round talent, that don't have the character, the emotional makeup that McBeane are looking for, and those guys aren't on Beane's board at all. The result of all of that is that by 30, some guys McBeane really like will still be there.

I think he is getting to be great. He's just had a little setback known as the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets. The guy is smart, mobile, has a live arm. I like Allen's play as a rookie, and Darnold was better. The last two seasons with the Jets, Tom Brady's love child with Mrs. Archie Manning would have looked like a loser.

Thanks for this. Interesting. I'm a big fan of trading back. More solid talent is what the Bills should be looking for if they can't find (and they probably can't) a game changer at #30. Trading up to get a true first round talent isn't very attractive to me, because all they can do is trade up to maybe 20. At 20, you can get a good player, but it's a crap shoot to find a real game changer there. Still, if the Bills think a guy is a top 10 talent and he's sitting at 20, I can see why they might go up for him.

Wow. Just wow. We knew Palmer like him, but he's talking about Allen like Allen is Superman. Amazing. Most physically talented is actually the easy part to defend. He doesn't run a game like Peyton or Brady, so to be the best ever, he has a way to go. But most physically talented is an easy argument. In the top 5% or better in pure size at 6'5", 250. Speed, according to Palmer, he's way up there, with only a few like Lamar Jackson and Vick better. Strongest arm ever, according to Palmer. Makes all the throws. Better ball carrier that all but a few. Nobody's ever been at or near the top of all the physical categories. Josh is.

Then I may have misinterpreted what they were saying, and I hear you, but I think what I said is correct. I think a lot more of the players who disproportionately affect the game are on offense, especially year after year. Especially the way the Bills play defense - the Bills want guys to do their jobs, and the relatively few game changers there are in the league on defense are best when you let set them free. I don't think, for example, that the best shut-down corner in the league would be nearly as important in the Bills defense as Diggs is in the offense, and even if he were, there are very few true shut-down corners. The Bills got Hughes to play his position as designed into the defense, and that takes away some of his ability to be a flashy edge rusher. Whether it's true or not, I don't know, but there were a few insider comments about JJ Watt that said spectacular as he has been, be wasn't so great at executing his assignments. Put another way, I think that there's more room in the modern NFL offense for creative individual play than there is in the defense. You don't need standout stars in the

It's an interesting theory that you guys are kicking around. You're essentially saying that the individual talents of some offensive players can raise an offense more than the individual talents of some defensive players. Or, to give an example, just for something to talk about and not necessarily something I'm sure is true, it's saying that there isn't a player you can add to the defense who will have the impact that Diggs had on the offense. Or, to put it another way, losing certain of your offensive players to injury will hurt your offense more than losing certain players from the defense. Or, to put a third way, defense is more of a team game. I think put any way, what you're saying is probably true. However, that doesn't mean that the right team building strategy is to spend more on offense in free agency, or to draft more on offense. You still need talent on both sides of the ball. What it may mean is that you should spend the same amount of resources on offense and on defense, but allocate differently. It may mean you should use your first pick, year after year, on offense, to keep trying to get difference makers. It may also mean writing your biggest contracts on offense. But it would also mean you might use more later round picks on defense than offense, and it also means you'd buy more defensive players, at a lower price, in free agency. In fact, this latter point is what Beane seems to do on defense. Pick up those free agent defensive players coming off their first contract, even their second contract, and see which ones fit the system.

I just got back into some of the ideas being kicked around here, and I like this. And yes, I think Breida might be the answer. Your fundamental point is great. Sure, any back can get some yards when the defense is dropping deep and leaving some big gaps in the flat, but Singletary and Moss aren't great open field runners. They will turn up field and get the yards that are there, but there styles don't lead to turning 12 yards into 35. McKenzie is somewhat better at that, but unless he begins to line up as a running back, he doesn't solve the problem. For me, every time I think about the Bills are running back, I want to see some breakaway speed and some genuine ankle-breaking ability. Sproles was one of those. Doesn't have to be a Hall of Famer, but has to be a great who's actually a threat.

It's really hard to be really good at one thing in your life, and it's almost impossible to be really good at a second. John Elway was a really good quarterback.

I'm the one who's always saying here that none of us knows what we're talking about. I've got to start making an exception for you. That's really cool, that you called that. However, you made one mistake. You needed to publish Monday. A trade like that happens in the week before the draft, not on the night of the draft. So waiting to publish that prediction meant that you missed out on glory.

Right. Singletary himself says he will be a different back, and not because he's motivated. It's because he is learning to run differently and training to have strength specific the changes in style. We will see if the change is real.

I agree completely. It was obvious to me that he could hit any target any time. He was inaccurate because he was making decisions late. As he got more comfortable making decisions, he got more accurate.

Well, I'd say all these teams missed on Allen: Browns, Giants, Jets, Broncos, Bears, Cardinals, Washington, Chargers. Bengals, Dolphins. They all needed QBs. Bengals actually traded OUT of position, and several others didn't bother to trade up. Bills knew they wanted Allen, and they and the Jets were the only teams that put themselves in position to get the guy they wanted. The point is not that everyone knew Allen had potential. The point is that no one other than the Bills figured out how likely it was that he'd actually reach his potential. That's the point that everyone missed, and it surprises me that front offices aren't better at figuring that out. I just posted in the thread about Motor. There's one intense guy. I'm sure that's why the Bills drafted him. Just like they drafted Allen because they saw that intensity. What were the other teams looking at?

You know, I have absolutely no idea whether we're going to see a new Motor this year, whether any of this stuff Dunne is saying will actually turn out to make a difference on the field. What I continue to be amazed about is how one Bill after another after another displays the same fierce determination to get better. It really does seem that if you don't have that, McBeane aren't interested. If you haven't read the article, read it. It's interesting. It's about one motivated dude.

That's an interesting point about his running that I've sort of ignored as people talked about it here. Thanks for making it directly enough that even I get it. You're right about the running helped him stay on the field as a rookie, which gave him the opportunity to learn and progress. And it really is quite surprising that his running ability didn't show up in college. Allen's well on his way to becoming a classic tough, from-the-pocket field general, like Ben and Peyton. His mobility probably will always be part of his game, but it will decline as years go by. I'm expecting that in a few years he will be beating everyone with his brain more than he ever beat teams with his legs. I mean the pros - scouts, coaches, GMs. Sure, they knew he was a talent. Any amateur could see that he was a talent. What I meant was that they couldn't see that he was so likely to achieve his potential. Ten teams, at least, thought he was a long shot. I mean, do you think there is anyone in the Browns front office who, if he was being really honest, is happy that they took Mayfield over Allen?

Well, I agree, it's not yet time to send Josh to the Hall of Fame. We're all so excited about 2020, but the truth is that to be one of the greats, Allen has to do it year after year and continue to get better. For example, there was a thread about someone's boss said let's see how good Allen is on the road when the stands are full. It's a good point. Allen succeeded last season in quiet stadiums; the greats win when the crowd is in their face. But I'm happy to say that it didn't take the second half of the 2020 season for me to conclude not only that the Bills got the right Josh but that they probably got the best guy in the draft. I was convinced by the end of his rookie season. It was completely obvious to everyone by then that he had an extraordinary set of physical tools, and he'd already demonstrated the quality of his leadership. Add all of the comments that were coming out of One Bills Drive, from front office, coaches, and teammates, too many comments to ignore, comments that said he's a hard worker, he's a leader, and he's smart, and there wasn't any real question for me about where Josh was going. However, the interesting question to me is not who among us saw it first or how long it took us to see it. What's interesting to me is that at least six, and probably eight or ten collections of coaches, scouts, and GMs didn't see it before the draft. The guy's physical abilities were obvious in college - we all saw that when we started watching his college highlights before or after the draft. No team should have missed that. And it seems that his intangibles were obvious to anyone who took the time to look for them. We've heard or read about how Allen seemed a little aloof or something when the Bills first met with him, but then they went out to dinner with him and everyone began to see the intangibles. It's not like they were hidden - it's apparently pretty easy to get to know Allen and to see what makes him tick. It doesn't sound like it was hard for the Bills personnel to see that Allen was smart, a hard worker, a competitor. The Bills knew it by draft night - they were sure. That's why they traded up. The Browns missed it, the Giants missed it, the Jets missed it, the Broncos - my heavens, the Broncos, how could they look at their roster and look at Allen and go in some other direction? It's amazing to me that the professional evaluators were so bad at figuring it out before the draft. And Allen's case is just the most recent, and fortunately we were on the right side of it. I often wonder how the Bills and others missed on Ngata, how several teams missed on JJ Watt, how so many teams missed on Aaron Rodgers. In retrospect it just doesn't seem that hard to see, but teams do miss.

He he he. Good stuff. I didn't like Rosen, either, but being strictly analytical about it, I had Rosen ahead of Allen. I sat there watching the draft, looking for Rosen. Then, just as the Bills traded up and I knew that the Bills could have either, it came to me - take the guy with the size and the arm. I just flipped from Rosen to Allen in the 15 seconds before the Bills' pick was announced. Not only did I have no earthly idea Allen could run, I had no earthly he could do anything except throw the ball a mile. But I wanted the athlete. McBeane knew a LOT that we didn't know. They knew what characteristics they were looking for, and they were sure they saw those things in Allen. No way I saw what was coming.