Shaw66

I just noticed that the Cowboys did not exercise the option on Vander Esch, same year, similar stats as Edmunds. You could spin that two ways: Jerry Jones knows what he's doing, or he doesn't. Depends on what you think about Jerry Jones.

Me too, not that they were going to say anything earth shattering. I'm moving on. Good luck.

Better not to offer than offer and not deliver. I've been trying for 20 minutes.

I can't get it to open. It says Master Failed to Download, or something like that.

No problem. I'd like some more depth there, but it will come from free agency or guys they've already signed. It would be nice to have a stud on the other side, but few teams do. What the Bills have is serviceable.

I don't know. My mental image is that Milano makes a couple of big plays a game, and Edmunds doesn't. But you're right, playing where he plays he doesn't have nearly the opportunity to pile up stats. I think what happened with Milano was that the COVID cap lowered his potential payday and Beane realized he could keep Milano for less than he had anticipated. Milano probably didn't want to leave unless it was for a lot more money, and the lot more money wasn't there.

Just for hahas, I looked at Keuchly vs. Edmunds stats. First three years, Keuchly blows him away, because for the first three years were by far Keuchly's best. Then his stats fall off, mostly because of injuries, I think. The surprising thing is that Edmunds is as far off as I would have thought. All numbers are per game played; Solo - 4.8 to 5.8, Keuchly Assists - 2.9 to 3.4, Keuchly. So, on total tackles, has a 1.5 edge. QB Hits - .30 to .26, Edmunds. TFL - .41 to .64, big edge Keuchly. Sacks - .12 to .10, Edmunds Passed defended - .52 to .56, Keuchly. Forced fumbles - .04 to .06, Keuchly. Keuchly is a great tackler, Edmunds isn't. That's clear to the eye and in the stats. Otherwise, not a ton argue about.

That's interesting. I would have guessed that even despite having missed more time, Milano would have a bigger edge on plays made.

Like I said, there's going to be a lot of competition. You don't see a whole lot of rookies starting on offensive lines, especially guys drafted outside the first couple of rounds, but Brown seems to be an unusual guy so, who knows.

I think they value him because he is the second best, if not best, center on the team. I have thought for months that Morse's job may be at risk. Big contract, I know, McDermott is going to play the best line. Mostly what's going on is that there is going to be serious competition all across the line. Dawkins is probably the only guy who's job is secure.

I'd like to be able to compare film, side-by-side, of Edmunds and Milano. Especially on the blitzes and running plays. Milano seems to do more of what we'd like to see Edmunds do: recognize, attack, make the tackle.

I like your two posts. I think they state the case fairly. As I've said elsewhere, I'm not sure that he's relatively weak in play recognition and instincts. His instincts aren't great, I'll grant you, but I don't think that's what happened. I think Edmunds has a bigger defensive assignment, a larger area to cover, than typical middle linebackers. I think the Bills do it by design - it's part of denying explosive plays. Protect the sideline and the deep zones, funnel everything to the middle and challenge our speedy, long-armed MLB to stop it all. I think what's happened is that, as always happens, offenses have figured out how to attack the least well-defended space and get relatively easy completions, not because Edmunds has bad instincts or doesn't recognize plays, but because he can't possibly cover all that he's asked to cover if the offense wants to attack there. Mahomes clearly was running options against Edmunds' pass defense. Frazier will adjust, disguise more, give Edmunds more help - I think one thing they like about Rousseau is that he seems to have the ability drop into coverage (he said as much in one of his interviews), and I think we'll see him sometimes back their plugging gaps in the short zones. And I don't mean more help for Edmunds because he is underskilled; it's more help because he's asked to do more than the typical MLB. Frankly, what I want to see out of Edmunds is more consistent, authoritative tackling. Hit the guy and take him down; don't just grab him.

I don't know why you keep arguing. We all get it: Edmunds doesn't do enough of the things that you think he should do. They're things I think he should do, too. All I've said is that I suspect he does things that you and I don't see that McDermott values more than the things you do. I'm not in One Bills Drive. I don't know. But I think if we could ask McDermott, he would tell us that Edmunds does things that make the defense successful, things that don't show up in stats that you and I look at. It's not a point you can argue against without looking foolish. I've put forward a theory that you can't disprove. It's also a theory I can't prove, because McDermott isn't having that conversation with us.

Only one of the three seasons has his passer rating been poor. And I don't think the fact that they manipulate Edmunds in coverage is due to his lack of instincts. I think it's due to the amount of space the Bills ask him to cover. It's clear in the championship game that Mahomes had two options over the middle, read Edmunds, then went the other way. That's not bad instincts. Edmunds wasn't choosing the wrong guy to cover. Edmunds had two guys to cover, which was impossible. When he chose one, Mahomes threw away from him. That's consistent with what I said in my last post - I think the Bills intentionally give Edmunds a large territory to cover, which has the effect of helping the other back six guys shut down their zones. In a sense, I think the Bills invite teams to throw over the middle. That's not bad instincts.

I get all that, and I see it too. Still, I wonder if we know we're talking about. I'll give you a completely different stat. I'll preface by saying that we thing we know about McDermott is that his defensive style is not to give up the big play. That means he's willing to give the offense something else in order to be sure to shut down the big play. The best place to give them something is over the middle, because that's where you have the most tacklers, and it's the best place to give the offense some yardage without giving them big yardage. So, okay, Edmunds had a passer rating of 114 last season. And I suspect it wasn't much different in the two previous years. How was the Bills pass defense? In 2020, the Bills' defensive passer rating was 86.9, 5th best in the league. The two seasons before that, Edmunds' first two seasons in the league, the team defensive passer ratings were third best in the league. As I've suggested to you before, I think (I don't know but I think) that Edmunds is giving McDermott most of what McDermott wants. Edmunds allows the back seven shell to over-cover the sideline and deep routes. Edmunds (and Milano) cover a large amount of the short middle, where McDermott will give up completions at a relatively high rate in order to shut down the explosive plays. (And by the way, Edmunds' passer rating his first two seasons was 93 and then 76, so I wouldn't be too quick to condemn him for his 114. I really think that we don't understand Edmunds' value the way McDermott does. Still, I share your concerns - why is he such a lousy blitzer, getting pressure not very often and more or less never getting sacks? Why can't he tackle better? Why is he always a split second late to intercept?

Amazing highlight play, but lost in the spectacle was the fact that Norman's contact drove Henry out of bounds.

Certainly true. Derrick Henry runs more like Jim Brown than anyone I've ever seen. In the 60s, if you had Jim Brown, you were a contender every year. Now, the perennial contenders are Green Bay, Tampa Bay, Kansas City, and, yes, Buffalo, and it isn't because of the running backs. Meanwhile, incredible as Henry is, Tennessee is only going so far as Tannehill can take them.

This is an interesting observation. I think there's some truth in. And drafting at 30, you aren't going to get a lot of top flight stars. But the question for Bills fans is "do you want top flight talent or you want to win?" QB is the only position where top flight talent correlates with winning. Tampa had a lot of talent on the field last year, but Brady was probably the only guy on the team who was a star like Allen and Diggs. One way you can tell the Bills have a lot of talent is that they didn't have many opportunities to draft someone who would be clearly better than the starter the Bills have at any particular position. McBeane clearly like their talent, because they didn't go chasing talent in the free agent markets and they drafted high ceiling guys who won't necessarily be immediate contributors. That's the process when you want to continuously improve your talent. So, yeah, the Bills didn't take someone who makes the fans dream of instant impact, like a Sammy Watkins did and a CJ Spiller did, and they didn't sign someone who got the juices flowing like the Mario Williams signing did, but we saw how those approaches worked and we've seen how McBeane's approach works. There are no parades around downtown this morning, but I'm fine with that. This looks like the way to have a parade in February.

I can't explain it to you, because I don't understand it, either, but McDermott seems to think you're wrong about this. And I don't mean it as a criticism of what you're saying, because I've always thought what you're saying is the correct approach.

Got it. Thanks. So, that means that what Kiper does is fundamentally different from what Beane does. Kiper might, I suppose, give players a first or second or third round grade, a grade that relates to what he thinks the players' actual value is, but for publication purposes, he tries to predict which 32 players will go in the first round. That is, in a sense, he has to give 32 guys a first round grade, and 32 more a second round grade, whether or not he thinks their worth it. And in making those predictions, in a perfect world, he would know what the actual process is that each of 32 teams use. That process, of course, is seriously protected. And to demonstrate what's really silly about the amateur draft predictions, ESPN has two guys, Kiper and McShay, making these predictions, and they can't possibly have the same level of staff support, either individually or shared, that each GM has. So the depth of knowledge about individual players isn't possible for those guys. And the GMs aren't sharing what they know. All of which means that I'd rather read about your draft board, because you at least have a measure of understanding of what McBeane are trying to do and can shape your board in some ways to try to predict what the Bills will do. But don't get a fat head - we all know you don't what you're talking about, either!!! 😉

I'm dense. What are the vertical and horizontal stacks? Vertical stacks are by position? Horizontal by draft round grade?

I don't know if it's quite the certainty that you say, but I agree in general. I says something about how McDermott wants to play defense in the coming years. He thinks that he can have a winning defense without a traditional power linebacker in the middle. Edmunds is far from the prototypical middle linebacker of the distant or even the recent past. He isn't Dick Butkus or Ray Lewis. That seems to be okay with McDermott.

I hadn't read about that call, but what you say is absolutely right. In McD's early days here, people on the board had the age-old argument about taking character or taking talent. It was clear that McD was a character-first guy, with a very clear understanding of what character meant - work ethic, team orientation, intense competitor and intense desire to improve. So, yeah, Aaron Hernandez would not have been on the Bills' board - people knew who he was by the time he came out of college. Obviously, there's no formula, but I'd have to guess that they had Rousseau around 20-22. If they had him in the top 15, they would have traded up for him, just like they traded up for Edmunds.

Well, I think you understand, but I think you overstate it in a way. I think McDermott has veto power, yes, but he also understands and seriously believes that this must be a team activity, and he seriously believes in delegation. That means that he has to let Beane do his thing and NOT veto his moves; McDermott has to have the discipline, and seems to have the discipline, to let Beane run with what he thinks is best. The day McDermott vetoes a first round pick will be when the strength of the relationship will be tested.

I'll go look at the article, but I find that really amazing. That means that the Bills, and presumably other teams, are so refined in their processes that they grade 100-150 guys and ignore another 100-150, because there are going to be 250 drafted. That means they really understand who these players are and how the draft will fall - not knowing who's taking whom, but knowing how many guys they have to know about. That's a really finely honed process. Thanks.