Shaw66

Agreed. It's actually an interesting example of how random noise is built into something that sounds true and then begins to shape the beliefs of many people. One of these days there will be a real report from a person with real, solid information, and then we'll know where Watt likely is headed. Right now, there's nothing.

Well, I've been saying all along that I don't want him if money is driving him, but I what I've meant by that is I want him to come to the Bills for less than some other team is offering. If as you say, it's possible for the cap to go that high, then he'd be foolish to sign now and leave a few million on the table just because he wanted to get it done. If the Bills are offering $12 and the cap goes to $200, he can get another million or two or three out of the Bills.

I'm fine with him doing whatever he wants. What I really was saying is that I'm like a girl waiting to get asked to the prom. The longer he waits to ask, the more he's saying to me I'm not the one. If the question is that close for him, I'm not happy.

I agree, he can do what he wants. It's an envious position to be in. I'm right where you are: Like to have him, trust McBeane to what makes the most sense for the team.

I have to admit I'm getting lukewarm about Watt. I used to be excited about him coming to Buffalo, but if Buffalo isn't his clear choice, and it seems it isn't, then I'm less interested. Beane is, so far as I can tell, very clear about how much he's willing to play. Beane doesn't spend a lot of time negotiating the money. If Buffalo were Watt's #1 choice, then he would either have taken Beane's best offer or crossed Buffalo off the list. So, I think Watt is trying to figure what's the team he likes best. If Buffalo isn't his clear choice by now, if he's having that much trouble trying to figure out he wants to go to the prom with us, then I'm just not all that excited.

Never met him, never drank from a bowling bowl, never been splattered with mustard, but any man who goes to every Bills game, home and away, is a man I care about. Best wishes, buddy. See you in September!

Right. And that's one reason the Bill's could end up passing on Watt.

Thanks. This is an excellent post. It states very well the real challenge that McBeane have created for themselves, which is is that they are building for sustained, long-term excellence. They aren't building on the theory that you have a window and you have to add some elite players to take advantage of the window. Having said that, they certainly should be willing to acquire elite players if it makes sense. What you point out is that JJ may not make sense - he may in fact impair their long-term building plans. Of course, that's exactly the argument about Milano, too. The Bills only should be spending big dollars on their true core players, like Allen and White and a few others. The difference between Milano and Watt is that signing Watt is less likely, from a cap perspective, to impair long-term building than Milano. Watt will take a two-year deal and be done; Milano will tie up money longer term. I don't say any of that to prove that signing Watt would be the right thing. It's a complicated question - how important is a player like Watt to McD's defensive scheme? How much would his contract get in the way of the long-term plan? How is his health? There are questions that have to be weighed all over the place. We all can have opinions about how to balance those questions; in the end, all that will matter is how McBeane balance them. Thanks for the interesting comment.

So as I was asking DrK, if you think the Bills NEED an elite pass rusher, where are you going to look? Or do you think that the Bills should just keep building as they've been doing? Frankly, I don't think that's a stupid idea, but I'd really like it if the Bills had someone elite on the Dline next season.

Got it. Thanks. I don't disagree. I trust Beane to do the cost-benefit breakdown (and the evaluation of the risk) too. And the piece we're missing is implied in what you say. The piece we're missing is what McDermott and Frazier and others think the Bills need to make the defensive front seven better. As you say, Epenesa, Oliver, and Star may be much of the solution. And I agree about Hughes, too. Like most fans, I may be overly attracted to the star player. I watched Frank Clark and Chris Jones disrupt things and don't see someone on the Bills who can do that. I'm thinking it's critical to have that disruptive guy somewhere on the front seven. Can they make Milano into something like the 3-4 OLB pass rusher? Bills obviously aren't going to change scheme to do that, but I think someone has to step as something more than just solid at his position. Hughes almost was that kind of guy in his younger days, but he certainly isn't now. Oliver hasn't turned into an Aaron Donald-like player. I don't think Epenesa is that guy - he hasn't flashed that kind of brilliance. So, I think the question that you and I can't answer is what does McDermott think he needs, and is he correct? Beane will get him what McD thinks he needs.

"I just don't think they will get the bang for the buck you expect from signing Watt." That's a fair assessment. That means you're evaluating the Watt opportunity as probably a bad bet. That is, you think it's a relatively small likelihood that he will give the Bills the kind of play that they need. I won't argue with that assessment - everyone can make his own judgment. I think the problem with that conclusion, however, is that it leaves the Bills nowhere. The Bills have a very good team, and one of the things they need to get better is some explosive defensive line play. They need one or two higher caliber playmakers on the defensive line. That's why KC got Frank Clark two years ago. So the question is "where are the Bills going to get that kind of playmaker?" You might get lucky and find one in the draft, but if you do, that guy isn't likely to be a real playmaker for two or three years. A guy who is going to be a stud as a rookie is very unlikely to fall far enough in the draft for the Bills to get him. So the Bills are limited to finding their playmaking dlineman in free agency or a trade. I don't know who's on the list, but it's a very short list of guys who are playmakers and either free agents or available in trade. They all will be expensive, and they all will carry some risk. So, if you don't want the Bills to take a chance on Watt, who do you want them to take a chance on? (If you've answered that in this thread, I'm sorry, I haven't gone to look for it). Or, do you want the Bills just to stick with what they have, hope Epenesa and Oliver take big steps up, maybe find a role player or two in the draft or free agency?

Yeah, I agree with all that. I'd say also that McDermott is an additional attraction. He knows Vrabel, I know, but I think the word is out around the league that if you really like to play, McDermott is guy you'll really like to play for. I don't know anything about Tennessee's ownership and management, but I think the word also is out that the Pegulas do everything first class, and Beane is as committed to winning as McDermott - in other words, more or less insanely committed. Put it all together, and I think that Watt easily could find the Bills to be the most attractive package. However, it's pretty subjective stuff, so I could understand how he might prefer one of the other teams. Just writing this, it occurs to me how interesting it is that it's hard to make a case for any NFC team. I don't think he'd go to the Packers just because he's from Wisconsin, and I'm not convinced about the stability of their QB situation. I mean, Rodgers is great and all, but he's kind of a prima donna, and the Pack certainly have succession in mind. Not Dallas or anyone else in the east. New Orleans has a tougher QB picture. Tampa, I suppose. The Rams are unsettled at QB. Arizona? Seattle? The AFC teams would all seem to be much more attractive.

This list makes sense. The reason KC and Buffalo are 1 and 2 is the quarterbacks. The next three have iffy QB situations. Watt has to be willing to bet on the run-oriented offense the Ravens feature, or bet on Tannehill or Mayfield taking another step forward. None of them are stupid bets, but each of him asks him to run the risk that he'll need to be part of a truly dominant defense to be sure that his team will win. Because of their QBs, Buffalo and KC are saying to Watt "we want you to be the best you possibly can be, and you will contribute to making us great on both sides of the ball." Now, if it's true that money is important to Watt, then the team that's offering the most money likely will be the winner, because, as I said, none of the top five teams would be a stupid choice. Beane will be smart about how much money he has and what he thinks Watt is worth. My guess is if the money is important to Watt, someone will outbid Beane. Watt's older, with more miles on him, than the typical Beane free agent, and I doubt Beane will overspend on him. If money is secondary to Watt, and the football experience and Super Bowl prospects are what's really important to Watt, then I expect Beane and the Bills will be in the thick of the competition for him.

I showed this to my 30-year-old daughter. Didn't tell her anything about it except it was a JJ Watt tweet with a video of his wife on their wedding day. She looked at it for two seconds and said "He's coming to Buffalo! Wings, those red and blue hearts. No doubt."

We could probably draft a guy who is going to be a first-year Hall of Famer? You must be a really big Beane fan.

Is there a Bills defensive lineman who has a 2020 highlight reel like this?

No, not confident. Bills have a shot, I'm sure, but there are other attractive spots. It just seemed like a good response.

Then don't watch the Bills next season.

I haven't gotten into the speculation about where he might go. It's all guess work. Having said that, I'd forgotten the Vrabel connection. That's real. I don't think Watt is the kind of guy who will go to Green Bay because it's going home or to Pittsburgh because his brothers are there. I think he's a football-first guy. I think he's going to go to the place where he thinks he will have the best football experience, subject only to the compensation meeting whatever he might want in that regard. Best football experience means opportunities to be on a team that excels and to be a significant contributor. Buffalo and Tennessee are two likely contenders. There probably are some others. Buffalo and Tennessee seem to be in similar cap situations, so as between those two, money shouldn't be the deciding factor. As I suggested, I think Watt will be about getting at least whatever he thinks his minimum is and not so much about getting maximum dollars.

You may be right about that. So far as I can tell, 3-4 guys and 4-3 guys are different body types and have significantly different standard assignments. I'm not a coach and I don't really know, but I have two counters to your comment that make me think the 3-4 vs 4-3 thing is not all that important. The two counters are Watt and McDermott themselves. Can't say I've studied Watt all that carefully. I watch the Bills and whatever other games I happen to be interested in. However, it's my impression the the Texans moved Watt all over the line. They asked him to do a lot of different things, and he could do pretty much anything they asked. He is, I think, one of those transcendent football players - just put him on the field and let him play. At any given time there may be a half dozen players like that in the game, usually fewer. Watt's the kind of guy McDermott wants, a guy with superior physical abilities who also is a consummate student of the game. Watt understands line play like few guys in the league. So I think he's a guy who can make the shift from 3-4 and find some position, probably multiple positions, where he can be an impact player. After all, McDermott's fundamental objective for his defensive linemen is win your battle, and Watt has been outstanding in that category, wherever he lines up. As for McDermott, he want versatility in his players. Versatile players allow him to complicate his scheme. Remember that Watt would be platooned. It seems likely to me that he could adapt to and play the three tech or either of the defensive end slots. He might even be able to play Watt as the one tech on spot duty, just to mix things up. Bottom line, I think Watt would bring almost a unique skill set for a defensive lineman, and McDermott loves to put guys like that to work. After all, that's why he wanted Edmunds - he wants guys who can do things on the field that others can't. McDermott is confident that he can make unique players assets.

For me, the Watt decision is simple. A year ago, the Bills needed a top-10 receiver. The only top-10 players who are available have a back story. Diggs had a back story, so he was available. Is there a risk taking a guy with a back story? Sure, but every decision carries risk. This year, the Bills need a top-10 defensive lineman. Watt is clearly one of those. He has a back story, so he is available. Is there a risk? Sure. Would you like to see JJ Watt rushing the passer for the Bills? Sure. If Beane and Watt can make a deal, it's a no brainer.

This is pretty amazing.

I will suggest again that in his end-of-season press conference, McDermott was talking to Watt when he said

Of course they promote the game no matter what. As I said, they could have promoted Rodgers and Allen as much as they promoted Brady and Mahomes, and they would have gotten the same ratings. Think of it this way. If the NFL has a good story to tell about the game, and they make sure they almost always have a good story to tell, they're going to get X% of viewers around the country. Every year they will maximize however many real football fans there are, because they have a good story - fans want to see the Brady story, the Mahomes story, the Rodgers story, the Allen story. The NFL gets those viewers whatever city the QBs play in. Then there are the non-football fans who watch because they want to be at a Super Bowl party, they want to see the ads, they enjoy the spectacle of the whole thing. Just like the football fans, the number of viewers they get from the non-football fans also is not city-dependent. Those non-football fans tune in for the show, not for the city. The one big variable is the people who aren't football fans and who ordinarily don't watch, because they aren't into the spectacle and the things that get some non-football fans to watch. How do you get those people to watch? Well, most of those people are the people who are interested for some other reason - not football, not the spectacle, not the half-time show. How do you get a lot of THOSE people? By having the two teams come from really big metropolitan areas, because those people have a third reason to watch - civic pride. When the Bills are in the Super Bowl, everyone in Buffalo will watch, including a lot of people who don't ordinarily watch. But the actual number of people Buffalo can bring to the TV for that reason is a LOT smaller than the actual number of people who can come to the TV in New York City, LA or a couple of other cities. And Dallas, which although it doesn't have the same numbers, has some ability to draw non-football fans because of the image they built. It's the additional viewers from the cities where the two teams come from that drive the numbers.

Don't kid yourself. Those guys dream about dollars, not about great theater. Sure, they got Mahomes and Brady, but they would have promoted the QBs with any combination of those two and Rodgers and Allen. They could have promoted any of those as a dream matchup, but that isn't nearly as important as having two big markets represented in the game. They would have preferred Mahomes and the New York football Giants and whatever that number 8 guy's name is.