Shaw66

Good point about how they've hedged the Tua bet.

I gotta say that although I don't think Tua is the man, the Dolphins have been making a lot of good moves. I think they're building nicely.

Well, I'm not going to predict what Allen will do. But he IS playing for a team that promotes a team mentality, and he has bought into that mentality completely. So that's something. Plus, not everyone is into the get-every-dollar-you-can point of view. If you're a 26-year-old linebacker who's made $8 million during your time in the league, the next contract has a lot to say about what the rest of your life will look like. But if you're about to sign a contract that GUARANTEES $100 million, which after tax and current living expenses leaves you with $50 million in the bank, you're in a much different position. You're looking at a life where your annual income, for the rest of your life, is $1.5 to $2 million. Every year, $1.5 million. For ever. In that position, some players will say "I don't need every last dollar. I care about winning, and if sharing some of the extra dollars I could get means my team will be in a better position, I can do that." Everything we know about Allen is that he is the kind of guy who might take that approach. For one thing, I get the sense, but I don't know, that his family is financially successful. This isn't a situation where Josh is going to run out and buy a house for Mom. Second, he's really well grounded, a simple-pleasures kind of guy. Third, all the reports are that he is a 100% team guy. So, I expect that Allen will at least agree to anything Beane suggests in terms of contract structure. That is, if the dollars are the same, Allen will take the team-friendly contract structure. Beyond that, we may never know how hard Allen bargained for what he got. That is, if Allen could get $40 million a year guaranteed for six years and he takes $39 million a year, we simply won't know. If that happens, that's team-friendly $1 million a year. If he takes $38 million a year, same thing. The only way we'll know if Allen was team-friendly will be if he takes a number that we all can see is lower than his market value. If he gets a new deal that leaves him out of the top five QBs in terms of pay, we'll know. But if he takes a deal that makes him the fourth highest paid QB, it means he probably still left money on the table, money that his agent knew he could get but Allen said not. Think about it this way. If Allen takes money that makes him the #4 highest paid, don't you think Allen could have said "no, I'll try free agency" and done better? I mean, why take #4 money when he can be a free agent or force the Bills to franchise him, which will get him the average of the top 5? Cousins did it and it worked great for him. Why wouldn't Allen? All I'm saying is wait and see. If Allen gets a deal that approaches Mahomes range, we'll know Allen pushed for the dollars. If he's getting only top 5 money, it means he gave the Bills a discount.

It doesn't just seem that way. That is exactly what Beane says he does. Fill holes in free agency, take BPA in the draft.

I don't know if they hate Jackson, but these guys saying no to Baltimore doesn't surprise me. In the thread I started that people loved to hate, I said that you can't build a winner with a running quarterback. People said, "well, just give him some good receivers, and you'll see that offense take off." Well, if you're a good receiver, why would you want to go to a team where your job is to be a threat that helps open up the running game? Why would you want to go to a team that has a guy who has never shown that he can be a top-end passer? You wouldn't. Why did John Brown go to Baltimore instead of Buffalo? Because Baltimore had Flacco and Buffalo had an unproven rookie. Why did he leave Baltimore for Buffalo? Because Flacco lost the job Jackson and Allen demonstrated that he could really throw it, that's why. Why did Sanders leave New Orleans for Buffalo? Why not Baltimore? It's obvious. Stefon Diggs and Emanuel Sanders want to play with a pocket passer who can complete every pass in the playbook, not with a guy who wants to run the ball twenty times a game.

Virg - Listen to Sanders. He was practically salivating to play with this team.

More to your point. Listen to the press conference Emanuel Sanders had. He talks about his career. He played with Ben in Pittsburgh, as a free agent he signed with Denver so he could play with Peyton, he played with Garoppolo in SF, then as a free agent signed to play with Brees. In the press conference, they asked two telling questions. One question was whether he considered Buffalo when he went to Denver. "No." He made it clear that back, four or five years ago, there was no point in considering Buffalo if you wanted to him. Another question was whether last year, when he chose New Orleans, Josh Allen not having emerged and Brees being a Hall of Famer had any impact on his decision. "Absolutely." This is a guy who wants to win. Period. He isn't going anyplace where he doesn't have a shot at a Super Bowl, and he isn't going anyplace where he has a project quarterback. He made it completely clear that that's why this year was the first year coming to Buffalo made sense to him.

He can't hold a candle to Beasley, so he's not getting a lot of playing time in the slot. Point is, I'm not sure he's all that marketable. Good multi-purpose guy with good speed, but no one is signing him to rejuvenate their passing game.

Two studs, plus a couple shutdown corners in 20 years of NFL dominance. It's not a lot of stars. Belichick didn't run a star system, and McDermott isn't running one, either. Our expectations, as fans, are going to go unmet. McBeane intend to be drafting in the 20s and 30s every year, and they aren't going to get stars in the draft, except by accident.

I agree with you. None has emerged yet. I also think great teams have only a few stars. Bills have two in Allen and Diggs. They need a couple of others to emerge. Oliver is still a candidate. They could use a standout on the oline. But the other thing to remember is that McBeane aren't running a star system. They're running a system like Belichick runs the Patriots. It's a lot of good football players doing their jobs. Other than Brady, the Pats didn't have a lot of studs. Wilfork, I suppose. And the collection of shutdown corners. But by and large, the people who looked like stars in New England were just good players in a great system. Free agents who left New England rarely proved to be stars elsewhere. McBeane are trying to do the same thing. They believe they don't need Oliver to that guy the Rams have, they don't need Edmunds to be Dick Butkus, they don't need Hyde to be Polamalu. They believe in having a lot good players and together being a great team.

Sure, there are lots of things to consider, but if I'm McKenzie, I'm beginning to see my ceiling and even the end of my career. I've had four seasons in the league, and I haven't been able to force my way into a starting lineup. If I want to start, I have to go someplace where there's less competition. I start weighing what's important to me: starting, winning, money. Everyone weighs that, of course, but as I begin to see the end of my career coming, what's important to me starts to become clearer. For some guys, it's money. My agent and my financial planners are telling me how much money I need for the rest of my life, and their telling me if they can find me a contract to get that money. For others, for the kind of guys that McBeane want on the Bills, winning, the team experience, personal self-improvement are what matters most. McKenzie seems to be saying that no one was offering enough additional money to make it worth giving up something that he values a lot. He hasn't earned enough money to retire for life, and he almost certainly won't earn that much, wherever he goes. Logic's point really is that in the past, there was no reason to stay in Buffalo for any amount less than what someone else was offering. Now there is. I think he is a mediocre receiver, and the league knows it. If he were a good receiver, he would have played a lot more snaps while Brown was struggling, or he wouldn't have let Davis take snaps from him. I don't think he's a good route runner, and I think he has bad hands. He doesn't make many difficult catches, and he drops routine balls.

Both are interesting points. Ford, of course, isn't new to the team, but I get the point. I like Hollister, but I have trouble seeing him taking playing time from Knox. It would be nice if he was good enough to make some two-tight-end sets a new weapon for the Bills, but I think at best he'll have only occasional impact. Whatever, it's pretty clear that the Bills believe the players they have, and the team, can perform at a higher level. They value the continuity and the continuing improvement, the growth mindset, over the talent differential they might have acquired in free agency.

It's amazing that the Bills are going to play 2021 with more or less the same roster they played in 2020. Sanders is the only lineup change. That, of course, is not completely true. Some rookie will break into the starting lineup, and some yet-to-be-signed free agent will play, too. Maybe even a trade will happen. Still, it's going to be largely the same team. Amazing the faith they have in the D-line and the linebackers.

I'd much rather trade my pick at 30 for the 14th pick in the second round and the 14th pick in the third round. That would give me two picks in the second and two in the third. That would set me up to have four rookies playing meaningful snaps in the second half of 2021.

I read only enough of this thread to find someone I agreed with. Not surprised it's you. No way am I trading two good players taken at 30 and 62 for one player taken at 18. No way. It's all about stockpiling good talent. No. 18 is not going to be a difference maker on the Bills.

In his podcast interview with some guy in England, Wade said it wasn't easy learning to catch a football. I don't think the issue with punt and kick returns is that it's technical. The issue that it is very high risk. One mistake can be a 50-yard turnover. It's a high-pressure, three-second-or-less play where you have to make the right decision, every time. It's why I always breathe easy when Hyde goes back to return punts. He has excellent hands and makes the right decision virtually all the time. Roberts was excellent at it, too. Wade simply has never - not once - stood under a punt with even NCAA Division I players coming at him, with decisions to be made about catch or not, fair catch or not, how to play the sideline. He didn't do it his first season, he might have done it if he had a preseason in 2020 but he didn't. I just don't see how McD can decide to go into 2021 season taking that risk on punts. Kickoffs, maybe, but not punts. One turnover on punts and kickoffs is too many, two would be completely unacceptable. Now, the guy is a veteran professional athlete, and he will have had two years of various kinds of opportunities to learn the game, so maybe, just maybe he can do it. Still, like you, I'd call no better than 25%.

I was wrong. Thanks.

I agree. There will be a few more deals. There always are with Beane. He will add some veterans, some of whom will make the team, some of whom will get cut. And he will surprise us with the positions. Just like the Trubisky surprise.

I agree. Not quite as impossible as many people think.

Nice, Yolo. Thanks. Troubles me that he's so willing to take hits. Keeping him on the field will be important. From this perspective, it's all about route runners. Have a good scheme and guys who can execute it, and Allen will have a field day. Toward the end, there was an interesting comment. One of the reasons Sanders is an upgrade is that Brown tended to play at one speed, and multiple changes of direction are not keep to his game. Sanders, on the other hand, looks much more like Diggs and Beasley coming off the line. There were a lot of plays last season where Allen needed to get the ball off quickly, and his throws usually went to Diggs or Beasley, not Brown, because those two were able to make the quick moves and create the little openings that Allen need. Sanders will be the third guy on the field, giving Allen another option on every play. Interesting breakdown. Thanks. Right. The zone numbers are eye-opening. In man, Sanders can't threaten downfield like Brown could, but Sanders catches the ball in traffic better. He's more like one of those guys who's open when he's covered. One other thought. If the Bills are fielding three good zone busters, it forces teams to play more man-to-man. Once they're in man-to-man, the running lanes for Allen open up, and he becomes more of a threat to leave the pocket and head upfield than he was last season. Those 20 and 30 yarders every game or two make a big difference in the offense.

I don't think that's McD's style. He wants to do the right thing, and if the league wants to promote this sort of experiment - or public relations gimmick, take your pick - that McD won't pull the plug early. After all, the guy doesn't get in the way - he's just an extra body in the meeting rooms. And, as it turned out, he came in useful running the scout team as the Lamar Jackson stand in, and probably at other times when the team was down a running back or two and needed a body to fill in.

He wasn't occupying a PS spot. He is part of a special NFL program to introduce athletes to football. Bills essentially had an extra PS spot for him, but the Bills couldn't activate him like other guys on the practice squad. He was more like an intern, following the players around and trying to play the game.

Thanks to you and Freddie for the rugby comments. I didn't think a rugby wing caught those kicked balls. Wade has commented that it's tougher to catch a football than a rugby ball, but that's something he should have mastered by now. THe flight of the rugby ball should be easier to track, because it's rounder, but he can learn that, too. The decision making in traffic is hard to replicate in practice. It will be interesting to see what happens. If he gets cut at the end of preseason, as I expect he will, it will be interesting to see if the Bills or any other team adds him their practice squad.

Well, his best opportunity for experience was his second year of preseason football, and he didn't get that. But he has had two years of something. I agree about it being speculative. I started this just to see what kind of thoughts people had about it.

I agree. Just think about punt returns. Just learning to judge the flight of the ball requires a lot of work, doing it from scratch. Remember, this isn't a guy who grew up shagging fly balls like most American kids. So, he has to learn the flight of the ball, how it curves, how to read the spin, all of that. He has to learn to look away from the ball to gauge where the coverage is, then find the ball. Then catch the ball under pressure, learn when to take the fair catch, learn how to play the ball close to the sideline. Then he has to not fumble when he gets hit two seconds after catching it. A team can tolerate maybe one mistake in any of that process a season; the rest of the time, all of that has to be done right. I don't think that's something you just practice and learn to do without having done it under live fire.