Shaw66

It works both ways - some great players do it with talent, some do it with brains. Brady and Fitzpatrick, for example, are two of the least physically gifted players in the league. Jimmy Leonhard couldn't compare physically with safeties around the league, but he played forwith brains for ten years. McBeane want smart players. I'm sure Knox's Wonderlic was one of the positives they saw in him when they drafted him. Whether he makes it as a serious threat, of course, depends on more than just brains. He has to catch the ball consistently, among other things.

I think the Wonderlic is important. I think pro football is about scheme and coaching, and the smart guys who can thing fast are important for coaches to have on the field. Josh had a high Wonderlic - I think it's particularly important for QBs. The announcers say that one thing that makes Kelce so valuable is that he's a former QB and thinks like one. So, I think brains are important part of Knox's game, if he's going to be a success.

Dawson Knox had the second highest Wonderlic of tight ends in his draft class.

First, I doubt Knox will ever be Kelce. Kelce is a special combination of size, speed, hands, and intelligence. Knox doesn't catch the ball as well as Kelce, and he hasn't shown the intelligence yet, although I think that may still be coming. He also doesn't have Kelce's size, but he may still grow some. But beyond Kelce's skills is the Chiefs' scheme. The Chiefs threaten defenses with so much good, deep speed that defenses are forced to have their linebackers cover a lot of space underneath. When you have a really good, smart TE and a smart QB, there's a lot of territory to attack, and that's what the Chiefs do. The Bills don't threaten teams with the same level of great wideout talent (would have been interesting to see a healthy Brown in 2020), so Knox didn't have the wide open spaces that Kelce sees week after week. How do you stop the Chiefs' attack? Tampa Bay did it with merciless pass rush. They put Mahomes under a lot of pressure, play after play, rushing four, and that made life miserable for him. Linebackers could play Kelce tight, and Mahomes often didn't have time for Kelce to outrun the linebackers to open spaces. Kelce still caught his 10 passes, but Kelce was the only option who was getting open before the rush drove Mahomes from the pocket. As I said, I think it's scheme and complementary weapons, but you may be correct about Knox. He seems a bit like a loose cannon. But the Bills don't usually draft meatheads; they draft smart guys with worth ethic, so Knox may have the ability to grow into more than we've seen out of him so far. 2021 is the year we'll see whether he has real potential beyond what you say.

Black and white striped socks on the Broncos at the first game in 1960.

That's interesting. Thanks for responding. Obviously, I don't know what the Bills are thinking, but I have a theory. I think building a team from year to year, and it is different from year to year, is a challenge. You have perceived needs, and you have opportunities to fill those needs. You don't build to a particular visions; you have to adjust the vision as things develop. The Bills know they need some work on the defensive line. They thought Watt could transform the line in a way that fit their vision, and they thought if they had a transformative player on the D line, then they could find solutions at linebacker. When Watt didn't come to Buffalo, the vision had to change. They apparently don't think there's another transformative D lineman out there, I guess. So the next vision is to be outstanding at linebacker and find the right role players on the D line. As I said, I don't know any of that, but it's a good bet that if Watt had signed, Milano was gone, and McDermott would have been looking for a different solution at linebacker. I don't know the free agent D line talent at all, but I think that no one out there is a high probability transformative player except Watt. Watt was the kind of option you might have wanted the Bills to spend on. The Bills apparently don't think there's another similar option out there. Once they lost Watt, they had to pursue a different vision. That means the Bills likely will do what they did last year - shop for a bunch of different linemen and try to put together an effective line. Didn't work last year, but in the Bills' defense, losing Star left them with a hole they hadn't planned on. We don't know what they think they can get from Epenesa in year 2. We don't know what they think they can get from Oliver in year 3. They Bills may be looking for pieces that fit with them. Watt was going to cause some dominoes to fall, like Milano, maybe Hughes. Maybe without Watt, Hughes is secure. The point is, building a team is a constant work in progress, and it's fluid and changing. It seems that Watt was option A, MIlano was option B.

I'm not telling you the Bills will have a solution to these problems you cite, but linebacker was in no case going to be the solution. Pressuring the QB in stopping the run are primarily front-four issues in this defense.

I'm with you.

Hmm. That's impressive. Still, Beane used words describing Milano going to the market that he's used in the past when he knows he isn't going to match what the guy will get in the market. So, I'd bet they keep Williams.

Yeah, add Lynch, McGahee and Henry to the list. Amazing collection of ball carriers.

Fair enough; I can't say I studied either team closely. But the point is still the same: although Ben is at the end of his career, the Steelers' problems last year weren't primarily Ben. With the right surrounding cast, Ben would have been fine. As someone pointed out, the Steelers' problem is the same as the Patriots' problem: an aging, under-talented and a HOF QB about to disappear, albeit for different reasons.

Oh, I think his body could deliver. I think his offense was a broken down mess, one dimensional and predictable. I don't Ben was physically worse than Rivers. Rivers couldn't throw worth a darn, and he's never been mobile. But he had a creative offensive coach, and he was fine.

I agree, too. Everyone undervalues brains and experience. Look at what Rivers did last season. Brissett couldn't do that, and Rivers arm is no better than Brissett's. And Brissett is much more mobile. But Rivers, like Ben, thinks about the game at a very high level. Good move by Steelers while they try to figure out who's next.

I think this is true. He seems to have learned from several of his bad decisions, which is not to say that he won't make more in the future. But he's smarter, and he's become more thoughtful, over the years. And Buffalo had something to with that. He left his roots when he came to Buffalo, and he learned that people would love him just for being Shady. He didn't need to bring along all of his old life to have us love him. Buffalo gave him the opportunity to get some distance from the world he grew up in, the opportunity to leave some of it behind. He saw the opportunity, and he took it. As for the comment about being the best Bills running back since Thurman, well, yeah, probably. Freddie might have something to say about that. Bills fans have been blessed to have the running backs we've had. I've started threads from time to time about the Bills maybe having the best all-time stable of running backs in the league. Cookie, OJ, Cribbs, Thurman, Freddie, and Shady. Rank them any way you want, but one of Shady, Cribbs, or Freddie is the 6th best running back in the history of the franchise. What other team has a #6 that good?

I'm sorry to hear about your loss. You will have those great memories for the rest of your life, and every Sunday in the fall you'll think of her fondly. In many ways, including through the Bills, she will live on. And when the Bills win the Super Bowl, if you're like me, you'll think of her and you'll cry. My best wishes to you and your family.

Listen to Shady. Every time I hear something like this, it takes my appreciation of Josh to another level. Listen to him. Shady's essentially saying Josh is the most all-round dominant athlete he's ever seen. Amazing.

Agreed. It's actually an interesting example of how random noise is built into something that sounds true and then begins to shape the beliefs of many people. One of these days there will be a real report from a person with real, solid information, and then we'll know where Watt likely is headed. Right now, there's nothing.

Well, I've been saying all along that I don't want him if money is driving him, but I what I've meant by that is I want him to come to the Bills for less than some other team is offering. If as you say, it's possible for the cap to go that high, then he'd be foolish to sign now and leave a few million on the table just because he wanted to get it done. If the Bills are offering $12 and the cap goes to $200, he can get another million or two or three out of the Bills.

I'm fine with him doing whatever he wants. What I really was saying is that I'm like a girl waiting to get asked to the prom. The longer he waits to ask, the more he's saying to me I'm not the one. If the question is that close for him, I'm not happy.

I agree, he can do what he wants. It's an envious position to be in. I'm right where you are: Like to have him, trust McBeane to what makes the most sense for the team.

I have to admit I'm getting lukewarm about Watt. I used to be excited about him coming to Buffalo, but if Buffalo isn't his clear choice, and it seems it isn't, then I'm less interested. Beane is, so far as I can tell, very clear about how much he's willing to play. Beane doesn't spend a lot of time negotiating the money. If Buffalo were Watt's #1 choice, then he would either have taken Beane's best offer or crossed Buffalo off the list. So, I think Watt is trying to figure what's the team he likes best. If Buffalo isn't his clear choice by now, if he's having that much trouble trying to figure out he wants to go to the prom with us, then I'm just not all that excited.

Never met him, never drank from a bowling bowl, never been splattered with mustard, but any man who goes to every Bills game, home and away, is a man I care about. Best wishes, buddy. See you in September!

Right. And that's one reason the Bill's could end up passing on Watt.

Thanks. This is an excellent post. It states very well the real challenge that McBeane have created for themselves, which is is that they are building for sustained, long-term excellence. They aren't building on the theory that you have a window and you have to add some elite players to take advantage of the window. Having said that, they certainly should be willing to acquire elite players if it makes sense. What you point out is that JJ may not make sense - he may in fact impair their long-term building plans. Of course, that's exactly the argument about Milano, too. The Bills only should be spending big dollars on their true core players, like Allen and White and a few others. The difference between Milano and Watt is that signing Watt is less likely, from a cap perspective, to impair long-term building than Milano. Watt will take a two-year deal and be done; Milano will tie up money longer term. I don't say any of that to prove that signing Watt would be the right thing. It's a complicated question - how important is a player like Watt to McD's defensive scheme? How much would his contract get in the way of the long-term plan? How is his health? There are questions that have to be weighed all over the place. We all can have opinions about how to balance those questions; in the end, all that will matter is how McBeane balance them. Thanks for the interesting comment.

So as I was asking DrK, if you think the Bills NEED an elite pass rusher, where are you going to look? Or do you think that the Bills should just keep building as they've been doing? Frankly, I don't think that's a stupid idea, but I'd really like it if the Bills had someone elite on the Dline next season.