Shaw66

Apparently, we are. I think this thread will be active until Jackson retires and his era is truly over. Only ten years to go.

Well, the thing is, when your veteran star says he's playing, you play him. Maybe it shouldn't be that way - Brees told Payton he wanted to play, and in retrospect it was a mistake. As I've thought back on the game, I had the same thought about McKenzie. I've never been a huge McKenzie fan, but his speed alone should have put some pressure on their defense that Beasley wasn't able to do. Stills is a different story. Who knows how well acclimated he was to the offense. Maybe Allen wasn't comfortable throwing to him.

Conflict defender is a term I was unfamiliar with, but that says exactly what I was talking about. And now it becomes even more clear, because the Bills were not disguising their defense. They were in that passive two-deep zone a lot, KC had seen it before, was well prepared for it. They expect to be able to attack Edmunds, they did, and the Bills didn't respond. Thanks for the post.

In response to this, I'm going to say what I've said a few times before. It isn't completely original - the core of the idea was said in this forum a few months ago. Before I say it, I have to say that people are getting carried away with how to beat KC. I mean, sure, the Bills have to beat KC, but the real objective is to become the team to beat, not to be the team that can beat the team to beat. Having said that, I think you're right that the Bills playing style should be to score a lot of points, and that's exactly what you're saying. Here's the way I think it should be: The Buffalo Bills have a generational quarterback. He is one of the smartest QBs ever to play in the league. He is one of the best natural leaders ever to play QB in the league. He is one of the best throwers ever to have played in the league. Of all of the Hall of Fame caliber throwers in the history of the league, he may be the best runner ever. He is one of the biggest, strongest quarterbacks in the league. The Bills objective shouldn't be to score a lot of points to beat KC. Their objective should be to score a lot of points because they have the best QB in the world for scoring points. That's why Beane traded for Diggs. And because that's the kind of offense the Bills should have, that's why the Bills shouldn't play defense that challenges the opponent to go on long clock-eating drives. The Bills should play defense that challenges the opponent to score fast or punt, because that's the kind of defense that gets the ball into Allen's hands quickly. The Bills defense should take risks, force turnovers, and challenges the opponent to beat them long. Granted, KC is uniquely equipped to do exactly that, but that just defines the nature of the challenge when the Bills play the Chiefs. The Bills defense should pressure the QB mercilessly and should challenge him to beat the Bills deep by taking away all the short stuff. Make Kelce irrelevant. That is exactly how the Chiefs played the Bills - take the run away, take the short game away, dare them to go long. The Bills played into the Chiefs hands by being passive, true, but the problem with being passive is not that it helped the Chiefs offense. The problem is that style doesn't complement the Bills offense.

Interesting. Allen for Watson and Tunsil is very interesting. But I think your point about the locker room trumps everything. Between his teammates and the fan, Allen is 100% untradeable. (Well, Allen for Mahomes, Hill, and Chris Jones, maybe! But any serious trade, no.)

Right. I just wrote in another thread that everything has changed for the Bills, including the off-season. Now the off-season is interesting for completely different reasons.

Thanks. Those are all good thoughts. As I just said responding to Thurman in the thread about whether Beane will make any big splashes, none of us knows. Good thoughts about the disruptive pass rusher. My pipe dream is JJ Watt. I don't think he fits in the category over-priced free agent category. I think salary is going to be secondary for him - he's going to move for the best football environment on a championship potential team. Something on line says he has a net worth of $50 million, which may be high, but it's probably at least $30 million. He's a smart guy, and he understands that he's already set for life. I'd guess that in his mind, $10 million a year on a team he really wants to be on is a better deal than getting a bigger contract from the Bengals. My problem with moving up to draft a pass rusher is that those guys are very hit-or-miss in the draft. The highest the Bills could reasonably move, just guessing, is to 10 or 15, and you're not going to find a certifiable disruptor there. Everything has changed with the Bills, including the off-season. The off-season now is interesting for completely different reasons.

Obviously, we're all just speculating, but I think it's much more possible than you seem to think. I assume he has a no-trade clause, so he has some control over where he goes. There probably are only a half dozen teams or so that he'd like to go to, all teams with Super Bowl potential. Salary also has to factor into it. Kansas City is $16 million deeper in cap trouble than the Bills, so KC probably would have more trouble freeing up money to pay him. Plus, they've got big cap money tied up in Frank Clark and Chris Jones, so it's hard to imagine KC would spend big on another defensive lineman. Even though Watt wants to play every down, he knows that at this point in his career, reducing his snaps is good thing. He knows he'll be platooned in Buffalo. As I've said elsewhere, I think that Buffalo is exactly the kind of team Watt wants to play for. I actually have wondered if McDermott was intentionally talking to Watt when he closed his end-of-season press conference: "This place is a special place, surrounded by a special fan base, and where else would you rather come to play the best football of your career? This is, to me, a great place to play if you're truly passionate and love the game of football." I don't think JJ Watt in Buffalo is far-fetched.

I think we won't see any major moves in the draft. Beane loves having draft picks, and he doesn't need to add a superstar to the team. He might LIKE to add a superstar - we'd all like that, but he doesn't need to do it. So, I seriously doubt he's going to package picks to move up in the first round. However, I don't think a free agent star is out of the question. No one knows yet where the cap will be, no one knows yet whether someone like Milano is going to leave for the best deal he can find, and no one knows yet which vets, if any, Beane would be willing to cut to create some additional cap space. What he do know is that Beane is fearless. Although I doubt it will happen, I won't be surprised if he makes some cap moves and signs a big-time player. If he's going after a big-time player, I think it's gotta be an offensive or defensive lineman. That's where the Bills could use a serious upgrade: A disruptor on the defensive line or a stud offensive lineman. If for example, it came down to writing a big check to Milano or to JJ Watt, Milano could be history. I think Beane already quietly signaled that he thinks Milano wants more than the Bills will pay (at his press conference he talked about Milano in the same way he talked about Philips and Lawson last year), and as we all know, McDermott always says that his defense starts with pressure from the front four. With the 30th pick in the draft, you can find a guy with Milano's physical skills, but you've got to be awfully lucky to find a disrupting pass rusher. As others have said, it's going to be very important that Beane gets a good player at the end of the first round.

That's really very enlightening for me. Seriously, thanks. Here's a thought I've had for at least the last half of the season: I wonder - I'll admit, I don't know, but I have at least a suspicion - I wonder if people have been putting Daboll on a pedestal higher than he deserves. I think he's good, but he hasn't convinced me that he's truly creative. I think he's shown that he can watch film of a defense and figure out what in his offense will work against that defense. Where I wonder about his creativity is when he doesn't have anything in his offense that will work, can he tweak his offense to come up with an approach that will work. And it's not enough to just create a gadget play or two; it's about bringing a new approach to the run game, from week to week if necessary, to make it work. Now, that discussion implicates exactly what you're talking about. Maybe he's good at that creative part, but he can only create with the material he has - he only has the skills on the offensive line that are there and he only has the skills his backs offer him. That limits what he can create. It's been clear to me that McDermott's coaching philosophy is never to ask players to do things that they are simply physically unable to do. In a sense, this is the age-old problem. Bad coaches always say, internally, "my players aren't good enough." The best coaches figure out how to get the most of their players. The GM and the HC have to figure out where the problem really is. The Bills' approach is that EVERYONE has to get better, coaches and players. Daboll didn't bring enough to the table this year, despite all the success he had, and McBeane have to decide whether he can get better or whether they need to replace him. McBeane also have to figure out if the players can get better or whether McBeane need to replace them. One thing we know for sure: McBeane are not going to sit on their hands. Changes will be made, because they made it clear in their press conferences (as if we needed to hear it) that they aren't satisfied with what they had.

Fair enough, although I'm not sure I agree. Regardless, that's where speed comes into play. When the hole isn't there, the principal way the back can get something out of nothing is to run away from trouble. Singletary doesn't have the speed to do that. Moss doesn't either, and although he's more powerful than Devin, he doesn't have the power simply to bulldoze on through. As I look back on the season, my sense is that except in the couple of games when the running game was working, the backs didn't have much room to run. Allen didn't, either, on many designed runs. That tells me the line wasn't getting it done. Because the line seemed to be decent or better this year, in terms of talent, it leaves me with scheme. I think there are problems all around.

What do I know? I'm just a fan, but I'd offer this, Logic: Scheme and personnel. That's what football is about. I don't think the Bills have been creative enough in the running game. I don't know anything about how to design a running game, but what the Bills did running this season looked pretty plain vanilla to me. I think the Bills weren't good at misdirection, weren't good in the outside zone blocking schemes, and weren't good at attacking the defensive fronts presented to them. Yes, they ran an occasional jet sweep, but when the Bills do that stuff it looks like a gimmick they've inserted into an otherwise bland running game. The style of the running game is not flashy or creative. So much for scheme. As for personnel, speed is the obvious missing characteristic. McKenzie was their speed back, and he was just a gadget player. Maybe the Bills should have tried running him out of the backfield, do quick pitches to him, and maybe even letting him hit it up the middle on misdirection plays. Just as McDermott has been clear that the passing game has to be able to stretch the field vertically, the running game needs to stretch it horizontally, and Singletary and Moss don't have the speed to do that. And some of the problem has to be on the offensive line. If Morse is going to be your center, he's fine for the pulling game, but power isn't his style. He needs to be paired with a couple of quick but tough guards. Feliciano is one. Is Ford the other? I don't know. Are Dawkins and Williams the guys to get it done at tackle? I don't know. Point is, everything in the running game has to get better.

Bills need a playmaker or two on the Dline. Oliver may become one, with the right supporting cast. Watt is a playmaker. He's a guy who requires the attention of the offense. Even if he is on the downside.

I've thought for a month that he's going to want out, and Watson bailing will be more motivation. This is a guy who cares about only one thing - winning, and I'm sure seeing Hopkins traded and now seeing Watson heading out will not make him happy. I will repeat again what I said yesterday. If you listen to McDermott's post-season press conference, at the end, he says something like Buffalo is the best town to play football in, the fans are the best in the NFL, and the Bills are the team where you will play the best football in your life. It was a message to free agents - if you're good, and if you want to be on a team full of guys who want to be the best versions of themselves, the Bills are the team. I'm hoping there's a way for Watt to end up in Buffalo. He's been playing, I think, about 80-90% of his team's defensive snaps, and in Buffalo he'd play no more than 60%. At this point in his career, he may see that as a plus (even though he wants to be on the field every play), because at 60% he can reduce the wear and tear and be more likely to play full seasons.

This is really dumb. Ali-Frazier is exactly the right example. First fight, Frazier was champ. Ali didn't knock him out, Frazier kept the title. Second fight neither had the title. Third fight, Ali had the title, Frazier didn't knock him out, Ali kept the title. Exactly what Whaley said. If you want the title you have to knockout the champ. Those three fights were amazing.

I dont think this correct. When you have a superstar qb, and I think the Bills do, you dont go away from that strength. The Bills didn't get Diggs so they could pass less. The Bills are a big-play explosive team; otherwise they could have kept Tyrod. The Chiefs have a better running game than the Bills, but that isn't a balanced offense, either. That's an offense that uses its passing to set up the run. They challenge you every week to stop Hill and Kelce and Watkins and Hardman.

I hear you. You may be right. As I think about it I think you're really right about the cap being higher than we might think. A drastic cap drop is really disruptive to the teams and really unfair to players who became free agents at the end of this season. Make cap artificially high for the coming season and a bit low next season to average it out. I bet you're right about that.

I think this is wrong. Without COVID, the 32 teams were, relative to each other, were in better or worse cap situations going into 2021. Since COVID, relative to one another, they're in the same cap positions. For just about all teams, if they want to make moves, they're going to have cut people to create room to sign rookies and others. New Orleans always was going to have cut players, they just have to cut more. The Bills were going to have to cut players, now they may need to cut more. The real result here is that the players who get cut are going to take big pay cuts. There's no way around it. It sounded in Beane's press conference like Milano is gone. Whenever Beane says "it's a business and he is free to get paid what he can," he usually means we've had a preliminary conversation with his agent, and it that's what he wants, we're not going there. The problem is that this is horrible year to be a free agent, because NO ONE is going to have enough cap space to write contracts like they did last year. Guys on multi-year deals are protected, guys on one-year deals are not. So, yeah, New Orleans or whoever may be letting more players go than the Bills, but if all those players stay in the league, they're going to be paid a lot less than they thought a year ago they'd be getting. But the teams, relative to one another, are still going to be able sign more or less the same number of players. That's an oversimplification. Beane said in his presser that no one should expect the Bills to pick up any high-powered help in free agency.

Well, to be clear, I probably should have said "I don't think" that Whaley was motivated by bitterness. I certainly don't know, but he just has always seemed like a straight shooter to me. He's been in the game a long time, and he knows people get fired. I doubt he was surprised to get fired, and I'd guess that he understood fully that he was getting fired because of the body of his work, not because McD wanted to stick a knife in him. But I certainly admit that I don't know any of that to be true - it's just what I think.

1. I think Whaley is absolutely right. 2. I like Whaley. I think he's a good guy, and none of this is motivated by bitterness. 3. I think Whaley should know better than to say this. Maybe he's getting paid to be a talking head, maybe he's trying to stay in the game, maybe whatever. Just like a good coach understands never to be critical of a current player or a former player, Whaley should understand that the nature of their history and their relationship is such that he shouldn't be saying things like this. 4. What's good about McDermott is that he's always trying to learn and get better. He doesn't need Doug Whaley to critique him, but McD is so good that if he sees this clip he will listen to it, evaluate it, and learn from it. Frankly, I think McD in hindsight probably agrees with some or all of it. He's going to be better in his next championship game.

Well, I don't know about best ever, but I agree. You just have to listen carefully. As for 1-2 players away, there will be more changes than one or two, but I think you're right - one of two elite players. I'll put your thought together with a couple of things I've said. First, as I said, the end of the presser was an ad addressed to the elite free agents and others. This is the best town in the country to play football, and this is the place where you will play the best football in your life. What an incredible thing to say. Second, McD was saying it to people like JJ Watt. He may as well have said "hey, JJ, you've got enough money. Come him and play for $15 million instead the $20 you'll get someplace else, and you will play football the way you've always dreamed of playing football, with a team full of guys who want it as much as you do, and with coaches who will put you in position to win like you've never won before." Watt may be a pipe dream, and whether Watt responds to that message, I have no idea. But there are going to be some free agents around the league saying to their agents "get me in a Bills uniform." McDermott and Beane are doing exactly what they've said they were going do all along. They're not done yet, not by a long shot.

Well, I can't say I've been an enthusiastic supporter of Frazier, but it's McDermott's defense. It's his philosophy, and it's based on a lot of sound reasoning. So I'm not sure we're going to see a radical shift in defensive philosophy if Frazier leaves. However, I have to say I tend to agree with you. I will repeat something I said a few times now, and I will acknowledge that it's not an original idea - someone else said it. When you have a big offense, and the Bills have a big offense that likely will be better next season, the defense's job is to get the ball back to the offense as soon as possible. You know how Jauron always said a punt is not a bad play? Well that's true if you have a small offense. If you have a big offense, getting burned for a touchdown isn't a bad thing, because it gets the ball back to your offense. That means that if you're playing complementary football, you complement a big offense with a risk-taking defense, a big-play defense that takes chances and gets beat sometimes. Why? Because a risk-taking defense doesn't stay on the field very long, which means time of possession is in your favor, which means your offense has the ball more. It's okay to let Tyreek Hill beat you once in a while on a 73-yard catch and run, if your risk-taking defense also is getting sacks, three-and-outs, and takeaways. If you play passively, which is what it sure seemed like the Bills did against the Chiefs, you let time of possession go against you, which keeps the ball away from your offense. It seems simple looking at the Chiefs game. Two admittedly big offenses, one aggressive defense playing tight man-to-man, pressuring the QB, and one defense playing two deep safeties, getting sliced and diced underneath and STILL giving up the occasional big play. The more I think about the game, the clearer it is to me that the Bills played scared. I'm not a fighter, but I know when you go into a fight, and can't fight scared. You can't be defensive. You have to have the courage to attack. The Bills were afraid of the Chiefs speed and sat back, daring the Chiefs to dink and dunk. The Chiefs said "thank you very much, sucker." It's funny to me that the Ravens have the opposite mix. They have a grind-it-out running and short passing game with a super aggressive defense. It's the wrong combination. An aggressive defense gets beat big on some possessions, and the Ravens offense doesn't have the ability to come from behind. The Ravens should be saying to opponents, "We can go on long, 80-yard drives all day. Let's see if you can." The Bills should be saying "We can score points in bunches. Let's see if you can." The Chiefs have the better pairing of offensive and defensive philosophy. I started with the fact that McDermott likes the Tampa 2 style of play, evidence by the middle linebacker he has. I have confidence in McDermott's desire to improve continuously. He will be studying that game and thinking about what it takes to be better, and I hope he will find ways move toward more aggressive defense.

There's more than that. It's just that you have to wade through a lot of the predictable stuff. Comparing the Chiefs to the Bills, he said "bigger, faster, stronger." There's a serious insight. When asked about Oliver, it was telling that he didn't say more than "we saw some good things from him." Translation - he wasn't as good as we need him to be. Asked about Allen's kind of in-your-face response to a question about whether he had proved himself to the doubters, and about whether he's okay about what Josh said, Sean said "He's his own man." It was interesting. It's his philosophy - he's not Belichick, pulling strings on puppets. We're all men in this locker room and we're all responsible for ourselves. That was interesting. The whole thing about starting over was interesting. Every year, start over, make your self as good as you can be. They're not a championship runner-up trying to improve in some areas. They are an organization trying to build the best football team they can be. It all starts over every year. And later he said it about players - come to camp with what you know now and make yourself the best football player you can be. And he closed with an advertisement. He essentially said to the free agents out there that this is the best town in the league to play football, with the best fan base, and it's where you'll play the best football in your life. If you really want it, really, really want it, we showed you this year that this is the place you need to be. Also, Diggs. He said they were ready to close the locker room doors for their post game activities and someone told Sean that Diggs and Josh weren't there. He went out to get them. He said several times that Diggs was "very emotional." He said that some people need to see that, want to see that. He said that he has seen it, personally, and he doesn't need to watch it a second time. Interesting insight. Yes, Beane almost certainly will be better, but I learn something about McDermott every year in this press conference.

It's more than that, too. McDermott is about continuous improvement. That's not simply about getting better talent, either on the field or in the coaching staff. It's about the players the Bills already have getting better at what they do. One example that I've been talking about is how the Chiefs attacked Edmunds. They were essentially running options off Edmunds - if he broke one way, Mahomes threw the other. It was very clever. There's a defensive response to that. I don't know what it is, maybe dropping a safety into the box, or dropping a DE into coverage with a slot corner rushing the passer, something. The point is that the weakness that was exposed was a schematic weakness that can be fixed. Individual skills also can be improved. DBs can get better at finding and attacking the ball. Dlinemen can get better at hand fighting, footwork. Bottom line is that just because the Chiefs were better than the Bills in 2020 doesn't mean the Chiefs will be better than the Bills for the next ten years. The Chargers were the best team in the AFL and better than the Bills in 1963, but they weren't better than the Bills in 1964 or 1965, even though the personnel were largely the same.

Thanks for all this. Interesting about fibula injury location. I think you're exactly right about physical play, and I would guess it's McD and Frazier to blame. I think they were so afraid of getting beat deep that they played with a prevent defense mentality the whole game. I think the players may have come into the game with that mentality, which is a passive, non-physical way to play. I'm generally in favor of taking the field goals McD took, but not going for it was also evidence of the passive approach. The Bills seemed to be approaching everything very carefully, afraid to make mistakes. Wrong approach to football, especially playoff football.