Adam727

This. If the Bills do end up signing Cousins I'll quickly get on board, but I'm concerned that he's not talented enough for the price he's going to cost. The Bills can definitely afford him, but it would severely hamper their ability to add talent around the QB position in free agency for the next several years. If the Bills still had their 2015 roster I'd be much more in favor of this move. Or if we were talking about a QB a bit better (Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson etc) I'd be on board with paying whatever is necessary. But i'm not sure the combination of Kirk Cousins + the Buffalo bills 2018 roster is exciting enough to mortgage the future for.

Thanks OP for this post. I thought it was really interesting and none of the numbers are really surprising. I think going the FA route for a QB is a legit option this year as there are actually some good QBs available in FA this year which doesn't happen often. I also like PolishDave's post about drafting a QB each year. Realistically you can't draft one high every year, but if they really wanted to, the Bills could draft one in 2018, another one in 2019, and another one in 2021 if the QB drafted in 2018 isn't working out by then. At that point odds are in your favor you will have found your franchise QB. And if you wind up with two, then trade one for picks like the Pats always do. I like that a lot more than giving Losman/Edwards/EJ/next Bills QB 3 years without any sort of back-up plan in place, because then if you're not in the 20% or 50% of teams that drafted the right QB you haven't wasted 3 years and you aren't starting over from scratch afterwards. (If the bills followed this plan the year after drafting Losman they might have wound up with Rodgers) For me, the worst parts of the Bills' playoff drought were watching teams with a QB that I thought it was pretty easy to see would never become a franchse QBs (Trent/EJ especially.) Those years would have been easier to watch if the next guy was already on the team learning and waiting to step in. I also wouldn't mind seeing the Bills keep trading one of their early draft picks for picks in the following draft every year until they have a franchise QB on the roster so that they always have extra draft capital and can move around the draft board as necessary to draft the right QB until they find one. I know spending that much draft capital on the QB position could set the team back in the short term, but I would happily take 2-3 years of 5-11/6-10 football if it meant we have a franchise QB for the next 10-15 years after that..

I was actually thinking he'd be a cap casualty this year partly due to his salary and partly because I think he was playing out of position at LB. I like the idea of moving him back to DE.

I think Tyrod & Alexander are gone. (saves $13mil) I think Jordan Matthews is going to want a higher salary than the Bills will be willing to pay and he probably signs somewhere else. I could see Ritchie being cut since that would save the Bills ~6.5mil but he's the Bills best Olineman. I could also see McD/Beane getting rid of Glenn/Hughes since they seem to want to get rid of every expensive contract they weren't originally a part of. But I think getting rid of either vs cap savings would be a mistake and hope both are on the roster in 2018.

The Bills lucked into a playoff spot this year with a few lucky bounces in an unusually weak AFC where the Colts/Texans both lost their starting QBs early in the year. I don't see them making it back to the playoffs in 2018, which is fine with me. I think 2018 should be a rebuilding year. We need a new QB and a LOT of new talent on both sides of the ball after all the big departures this year. Next year should be all about laying the foundation for building an AFCE dynasty to replace the Pats once Brady retires.. Unless it's for a QB or a DT I really hope the Bills don't spend big in FA this year and i wouldn't mind seeing them trade back in the draft again to get an extra #1 for 2019...

A QB good enough that he should be able to make the Bills perennial playoff contenders given that we'd be making him the highest paid player in the NFL and using up 20% of our salary cap on him for the next 7 years. Or if that's asking too much, maybe a QB with a winning record as a starter? Just the difference between what Cousins is going to make vs what we save from cutting Tyrod (not even talking Cousins' entire salary) is probably almost enough to re-sign Benjamin/Gaines/Kyle Williams. I'm not convinced Cousins is so good that he can put THIS Bills team on his back and take them to the post-season when he wasn't able to do it in Washington. Spending that much on Kirk Cousins with this supporting cast seems to me like the recipe for another decade of 8-8 football. But again I don't watch him play much. So maybe I'm just not understanding how good he is.

I like the idea of signing Alex Smith to a 2-3 year deal and drafting a rookie in the 1st round. (Depending on what it would take to trade for him and what his salary demands would be) I don't think Kirk Cousins is going to be worth what he gets on the open market and don't think he's enough of an upgrade from Tyrod to justify the monster salary. (Although I admittedly don't watch many NFC games so I don't see him play much) The only other name on that list I like is Case Keenum (and I haven't seen him play much either) I don't think any of the other names on that list are a big enough upgrade from Tyrod to take this team to the next level. So if we can't get Smith/Keenum I'd rather just go the draft route, save the $$, and take a step backwards in 2018 so that we have the cap space to take a bigger step forward in 2019. I do think 2018 is going to be one of those years where at least one franchise QB changes teams (which doesn't happen often) so I think the Bills should try to be very active in the QB market this off-season. Especially since I don't know that picks 21 & 22 are going to get them a great prospect. They were saying on TV at halftime of the Chiefs/Titans game yesterday that scouts are saying Darnold/Rosen are not as well-regarded as Trubisky/Mahommes/Watson were last year. Not sure how many people agree with that or not, but if true, that doesn't give me much hope for whoever is left over by the time we're able to pick. (I still think they should draft one anyway though)

I think it would be great if TT would take less next year to stay. That would give the Bills cap space and the flexibility to give whoever they draft at QB a year to learn the offense (and Buffalo won't be forced to reach for an EJ or a Losman if all the QBs they like are taken before they get a chance to pick and the price to trade up ends up being too steep) But I can't see why TT would agree to this. TT has been a starter for 3 years with a winning record and (assuming he's cut) will be reaching FA after just taking the Bills to the playoffs for the first time in 17 years. I can't imagine a scenario where there isn't a team out there willing to give him at least a 4yr/60mil or 5yr/75mil contract... And McD was in such a hurry to bench him despite not having any better options, I'd be surprised if OBD wants Taylor back at all. I'd love to see it happen but can't see either side being interested...

Who is Rod Watson?

Given how much it would cost the Bills to move up and get a top QB this year, unless there is someone they really love at the QB position, this is probably the best way for the Bills to build for now & for the future. Draft a QB if one you like falls to you in the late first. Trade TT. Try to trade the other 1st rounder and one of the 2nds for higher picks in 2019. Spend very carefully in FA (maybe a DT and re-sign Gaines) and carry as much cap space over to 2019 as possible. Let Nathan Peterman start 2018. On the off chance he does well, you get your franchise QB for a 5th round pick. More likely, he'll lead the team to a 3-13 or 4-12 record and the Bills will head into 2019 with a top 5 pick, several additional 1st & 2nd round picks, and a ton of cap space to really begin the rebuild, right as Brady is getting ready to retire..

I actually think the 7.5 line is too high for what I think will be a close, low(er) scoring game. But if McCoy can't play I could see a scenario where the game gets ugly really quickly. Jaguar's pass D is #1 in the NFL... If I weren't a Bills fan, I'd be tempted to put some $$ on the Bills to cover, but I'm not sure I want the Bills playoff hopes AND $$ on the line in the same game. That could end up being a really bad day if the Bills get blown out.

Whaley's two problems in Buffalo were roster building /managing the salary cap (spending too much at certain positions and not enough at others) and finding a QB. If he gets the GM job in Green Bay one of those problems is already solved for him. He did a great job finding talent in FA in Buffalo, and other than not valuing draft picks correctly (giving up too much to move up for Sammy which was really inexcusable with no QB) I thought he was decent at drafting too. I know not a lot of players he drafted are still playing in Buffalo, but I count 8 players drafted by Whaley from 2013-2016 that are playing at a high level for other teams right now, and five that are playing well for the Bills if you include Shady (Kiko). 13 starters from 4 drafts is pretty good. Even though I think Whaley deserves all the criticism he gets for sticking with EJ too long and spending too much to get Sammy, I think Whaley gets unfairly trashed when it comes to evaluating talent via the draft, which MOST of the time he did pretty well. I actually think he'd do very well as a GM in Green Bay. That seems like a perfect fit. Cleveland where he needs to find a QB and figure out how best to spend Cleveland's multiple draft picks and $107mil in free cap space (build a roster from scratch) I'm not so sure would be a good fit for Whaley's skill set.

I'm not saying he's the best player on the team, but if I had to pick one player most responsible for getting the Bills into the playoffs I'd have to say Tyrod Taylor. He touches the ball more than any other player, and the difference between when he's in the lineup and not in the lineup was in full display against the LA Chargers. He's the one player on the team where if he were injured for any length of time there's no chance the Bills would have gone to the playoffs this year. Honorable mentions would be Hauschka, Kyle Williams, McCoy, & Gaines.

If true, that's fantastic. I hope he loses out on all of them and I hope the suspension is the reason!

Glad Thompson is playing! Not sure why only 4 WRs are active though. Especially with two of them injured, one not playing well, and one primarily being a KR. Seems like they could have found an extra spot for a WR somewhere and gone with one less DL/LB... Oh Well! Is it 4:30 yet?

I'm not sure what Zay Jones has done for the Bills to inspire so much confidence. Especially from a regime that was all too happy to jettison Reggie Ragland and Kevon Seymour after their rookie years. If Zay Jones had been drafted the year prior and had this type of performance last season, he would have already been cut. It's too early to Zay is a bust, but his rookie year was terrible. Regardless of what the numbers say, Moulds, Price, Stevie etc all looked much better on the field their first year than Zay. Hopefully Zay's career is just off to a bad start and he puts everything together next year, but he should head into training camp as the #4 or #5 WR at best..

IMO anything short of a Superbowl appearance and Tyrod is gone after this season. I'm still slightly nervous McD may try to start Peterman again against Miami next week if the Bills get blown out on Sunday. I'd be shocked if TT is still in Buffalo next year.

The difference in probabilities is because at 9-7, a win against Miami gives the Bills the tiebreaker over Baltimore, but if the win comes against NE that gives the tiebreaker to the Ravens. (At 10-6 the Ravens also hold the tiebreaker) Ironically (luckily?) the two games against the Pats this year have less playoff implications for Buffalo than any other games since Week 10. But win or lose this Sunday it's unlikely the Bills get into the playoffs without a win against Miami next week.

IF the Bills finish 9-7 with a loss @ NE and a win @ Miami and the Titans go 1-2 with a loss to Jags the Bills are automatically in the playoffs. If the Bills finish 9-7 and the Titans go 0-3, the Bills will also need Ravens to lose to Indy/Bengals or the Chargers to lose to Jets/Oakland. If the Bills finish 10-6, Bills playoff chances go from 85% to 95% with a 49ers win today. Unless you think it's more likely than not that the Bills beat NE next week or that the Titans will beat the Rams next week, I think it's better for Buffalo if Titans win today..

I'm seriously confused about who to root for in the Titans/49ers game today. It seems? like it's better for us if the Titans win based on the Titans/Chargers/Ravens remaining schedules? But it also seems weird to root for a team currently ahead of the Bills in the playoff race..

All of this with the caveat that 13 weeks is probably too soon to make a decision on a head coach.... But I'm a "no" vote for McD. In his first year as head coach he made the worst player personnel decision I've ever seen as a Bills fan benching Tyrod for Peterman against SD while the Bills were in the middle of a playoff run. (Think benching Flutie for Johnson, except if Johnson had never started in the NFL and was a 5th round rookie) If he'd made the same move at a different point in the season it wouldn't have bothered me much, but he picked such a horrible time to make that move... You make a move like that early in the season or after the season is over... not when your team has a winning record and is currently the 6th seed in the playoff hunt! He also made one of the worst in-game calls I've ever seen punting on 4th and 1 against the Colts last week. Not only did he not appear to understand that by punting he hurt the Bills chances of winning the game, but what really is cause for concern is that after the game he did not appear very aware of where the Bills stood in the playoff hunt and how badly a tie would have hurt their chances to make it to the playoffs. In my opinion a good NFL head coach should have a better understanding of exactly where his team stands in the playoff picture in the final month of the season. It's only through sheer luck that call didn't end the Bills' season right there.. He's also made some poor choices over the course of the year when deciding plays he should/should not challenge. Half time adjustments have been disappointing to non-existent during multiple games this year. McD says he's a detail oriented coach but often doesn't seem to understand / be aware of important details. Going forward it seems likely McD will cost us a game here and there each season with poor decision making, which the Bills cant afford if most years they're already going to drop 2 to the Pats to begin with. I don't think he brought in the right OC for this team, and defense is up in the air this year. (They've looked both really good and REALLY bad) I will say that to his credit McD does seem to have this team overachieving in the W/L category based on the talent left on this team. But I think partial credit for that goes to how bad the AFC is this year and the Bills catching a few lucky breaks this season that usually seem to bounce the other way. I think some of this can be chalked up to this being McD's first year as a head coach. And hopefully he improves over time since it's unlikely he's going anywhere anytime soon. But the recent Bills head coach McD reminds me the most of is Dick Jauron and I wasn't a fan of his either..

I said as an alternate... Do you think Peterman is playing well enough to go to the Probowl as an alternate this year? I don't..

Peterman is a 5th round rookie drafted 171 overall. The QBs drafted over the last 15 years closest to his draft position were: Jonathon Crompton, Rusty Smith, Nate Davis, Tom Brandstater, Mike Teel, Troy Smith, Omar Jacobs, & Craig Nall. I don't know what so many people saw in Preseason, his 5 int game vs Chargers, or his 57 yds against the Colts that has anybody convinced he's any better of a prospect than anyone listed above. I'm not saying he can't be, but I've seen nothing to suggest he is... Tyrod made it to the Pro Bowl in each of his last two years as a Bill (as an alternate) He may not be a top tier QB, and he may not be having a great year, but he's EASILY the best QB on the roster today. It's honestly not even close. I see a few people who keep complaining about Tyrod's worst game as a pro against NO as if Tyrod's worst game is what we'll see from him every week. But even Tyrod's god awful stat line against New Orleans would just about be the best game of Peterman's career so far... I'm not saying Tyrod is the answer at QB for Buffalo (he's not) and not saying Peterman can't go on to become an NFL QB (too early to say) but with the Playoffs on the line I don't understand why anyone would want Peterman starting over TT. The fact that McD started Peterman against SD is a HUGE red flag IMO that his skill set does not translate well to head coach. While I would never wish injury on anyone and I hope Peterman gets better soon, I hope he takes just long enough in concussion protocol where McD doesn't get a chance to make the same mistake this week. Next time the Bills lose, then see what Peterman has the rest of the year. If you want to cut TT this offseason and give Peterman all of next season as a starter while we likely tank for a top 3 pick, fine. Just let TT start next week!

That's a shame.. What a disappointing way to end the season... Playoffs appear to be completely off the table now. If Peterman wins tomorrow I can't see them going back to Tyrod against Miami. And this team with Peterman at QB isn't good enough to win more than 1-2 games at most. I said at the start of the season I'll take anything except 7-9/8-8 this year. but one or the other looks pretty much guaranteed now.

I guess I'm in the minority but I'm really hoping TT is able to play on Sunday. If/when the Bills lose one more I'm fine if they want to let Peterman finish the year, but we're already not getting a top draft pick so I'd rather see the Bills try for the playoffs at this point.