Adam727

~$6mil in salary cap space this year for a 33 yr old linebacker who'd be playing out of position? I'd pass. Would be a good pick-up for some other teams but not the 2017 Bills.

I dislike the Darby trade and outright hate the Sammy trade. I can get on board with rebuilding this year and trading players this season for future picks, but not when the players we're trading are 24 and 23 years old and one is a potential superstar. And not when it means making it more difficult to properly evaluate Tyrod. I thought the most important thing for the Bills to do this year was give Tyrod a full year with no excuses and see how badly we do/don't need a QB next year. If Tyrod has an average season this year throwing to a bunch of slot receivers after losing his best weapon three weeks before the opener it makes that evaluation more difficult. That alone is worth something. The only thought process behind this that made any sense to me was maybe they knew Sammy wasn't going to re-sign here next year. But after hearing Beane say in his press conference that he hadn't talked to Sammy about re-signing and didn't know if Sammy wanted to stay in Buffalo, now I don't know what to think other than I have serious concerns about the new GM. I think Darby and especially Sammy should have been pieces to build around for the next 10+ years. I think this will turn out as bad or worse than the Jason Peters trade.. It's hard to see right now how a 2nd round pick brings more value to the team than Sammy Watkins.

I don't claim to be particularly smart, so I'll apologize in advance if I completely misunderstood something. But in reading the article, that first chart appears to just compare pre-season estimated SOS to actual SOS. So the fact that the teams with the toughest pre-season SOS had easier regular season SOSs than the pre-season estimates seems to just show that over time most NFL teams revert to parity. It doesn't appear to mention what the actual SOSs turned out to be at all. If a team's pre-season SOS was .550 and their actual SOS ended up being .540 when the year was over, then it was easier than expected but still tougher than the average team that year. The second chart with the dots seems to show that 14 teams with a .500 or easier pre-season SOS ended up with an 8-8 or better record and only 5 teams with a .501 or tougher pre-season SOS had an 8-8 or better record last year. Which would seem to indicate that last year teams with pre-season SOSs of .500 or less were almost 3x more likely to have 8-8 or better records than teams with tougher SOSs, which would seem to run counter to the author's argument. I don't want to comment on the correlation coefficient the author mentioned because it doesn't appear to say how it was calculated, but the first two charts don't seem to make the author's point for him very well. (again unless I'm completely misunderstanding something) It makes sense to me that a tougher schedule = less likely to win as many games. If the relationship between pre-season SOS and # of wins is actually negative does that mean a team that plays the team with the worst record the year before (Browns) twice a year statistically has a worse chance of making the playoffs than a team who plays the team that won the superbowl (Patriots) twice a year? That would seem odd if true. I understand a lot can and will change before the season starts but I still would think playing NE, NE, Atlanta, Carolina, Oakland etc hurts our chances more than helps..

I went with WR. Safety and DE look like the biggest weak spots on paper right now, but both are potentially only one player away from looking solid. WR isn't looking great at the moment either and could need a complete overhaul soon if/when Sammy leaves in FA.

I thought Powell was a nice surprise last year as a #5/#6 receiver. I'm sure this suspension doesn't help his cause. From reading the responses so far I guess I'm in the minority hoping he'd make the team this year?

This. Under what scenario does Sammy come back to Buffalo beyond 2018? The Bills can franchise him next year but all that would do would be paying $16+mil for a 1 year rental. If he misses significant playing time this year are the Bills going to re-sign him long term? If they're already concerned about injury, I have to think one more injury would be the end of his career here? If he plays all 16 games is that going to be enough for the Bills to go from not being comfortable giving him $13mil to being comfortable giving him a $100-$120mil contract? I don't really see that either.. If we can get a 1st for him trade him. He's worth more than that (IMO) but it beats losing him in the future for nothing.

I'd trade Sammy for a 1st. When we didn't pick up his option IMO that made it very unlikely he ultimately re-signs here. I agree anyone we get with a 1st round pick is not likely to be as good as Sammy (injuries and all), but I'd rather get a 1st round pick back than nothing at all next year (or the year after if we franchise him for a year first). A 2nd round pick isn't good enough given that we'd get a 3rd round Comp pick anyway (if the Bills don't waste it again) and have Sammy on the team for 2017.

Except Rex Ryan was hired after the Pegulas took over and "changed" his job. And they've already said that he'll be part of the next GM search that is currently happening now. This article titled "Russ Brandon Still Looms over Bills Football operations" was published in 2017. http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2017/01/03/russ-brandon-still-looms-over-bills-football-operations/ I believe he does still have a say in football operations, in large part because that is what is being reported, and that is what has been said by Terry Pegula himself as recently as last week. (And again to be clear, i'm not saying he has final say over anything. Or that his job "title" isn't strictly related to the business side of things. I just think it's hard to fully separate the two especially with the lack of experienced people at OBD. Of course they are going to lean on Brandon's opinion. Who else are they going to ask?) If I believed he no longer had a say on football decisions then I'd agree with the rest of what you said. But no one is going to be able to convince me that's the case because that statement runs counter to everything that's been reported for the last several years.

I understand what his official job title is. But look around OBD right now.... Brandon has more experience as a GM than anyone else in the building right now. I don't think it's realistic to think he won't have any say in football decisions going forward. Here's a portion from an article written by John Kryk just last week: Whaley’s worst personnel decision, by far, came during his first draft as GM in 2014. With the enthusiastic backing, if not the forceful urging, of recently appointed team president Brandon -- only one month after the death of founding Bills owner Ralph Wilson -- Whaley traded away Buffalo’s first- and fourth-round 2015 draft picks, merely to move up from No. 9 overall to No. 4. This, to select a player Whaley and his scouts believed to be a rare NFL talent: wide receiver Sammy Watkins. This, even though for months every draftnik and his brother had been touting the 2014 wide-receiver class as the deepest and perhaps most talented yet. “We thought it was a calculated risk, and a risk we were willing to take,” Whaley said of the Watkins trade-up at the time. “The high cost of not making the playoffs is something we weighed in, and we thought this guy was going to get us to the playoffs.” It wasn’t Whaley’s unwise gamble alone. In his defence, it must be pointed out that Brandon -- in his second year as final decision-maker on all matters involving the Bills franchise -- had been hard-selling a new club mindset that the Bills, under his vision and leadership, had to become a “forward-thinking, progressive and attacking organization.” Said an ecstatic Brandon moments after the Watkins trade-up: “We went into this draft saying we were going to be bold, and we made a bold move.” Yet however much Brandon might have urged that trade-up -- and print and video reports from that day clearly suggest he was deeply involved -- it’s Whaley’s now to wear. I understand the decision was ultimately Whaley's and not Brandon's. But if Brandon had no part in the decision making process AT ALL can you really say there's no chance we wouldn't have wound up with OBJ (or any of the other very talented players still on the board at #9) and an extra 1st instead of a WR we spent 2 1sts and a 4th on that may not even be a Bill this time next year? Can you say for sure without Brandon's advice that Rex Ryan would have still been our head coach the last two years? And more importantly who over at OBD now has enough knowledge/experience that they won't need to lean on Brandon's opinion going forward? The rookie head coach? The new owner? Their senior capologist? It only makes sense they'll lean on Brandon's experience the next time a big decision needs to be made. I realize NONE of this is fair to Brandon who I'm sure is a really nice guy and is very talented at the job he's actually being paid to do. But I would feel better about the Bills' chances going forward if he were no longer a part of the organization. I don't believe it's possible to keep Brandon at OBD and keep him fully separated from all football decisions. They've been saying for years now he has no say in football operations anymore when he clearly does and likely will going forward. Not having the final say is different than not having any say at all.

But supposedly he was kicked upstairs years ago. Even after he was no longer supposed to have anything to do with football operations he still had one of the loudest voices in hiring Rex & trading up so much for Watkins. Even if the final decision is now someone else's, I don't want the person making the decision to be influenced in any way by someone who has so consistently gotten it wrong... I realize this is unfair to Brandon since his job for most of his time here has been to make money, not to build a winning team. But whether it's the Maybin pick, the Toronto series (giving up a home game & competitive advantage every year), Rex Ryan, Sammy Watkins, etc his fingerprints are all over many of the biggest setbacks this organization has had in recent years. I think history has shown at this point that regardless of his job title, he will still continue to have some say in football decisions. (Even if it's just giving his opinion to the people who's job it is to make the final call) If I believed that he could keep his current job without having ANY say over football decisions I'd be the first to say he should have a life-time contract, because as marketer he's a genius. But that's what we were already told was happening and we have since found out on multiple occasions that's not how things are actually working. I'm not saying by any means that all the blame for the last 17 belongs to Brandon. But he owns enough of it that I would prefer to see him gone from OBD. I don't follow hockey so let him stay in charge of the Sabres.

Where does this false information that he has nothing to do with football operations anymore keep coming from? He was part of the decision to hire Rex Ryan "don't let him leave the building", there was just an article a week or so ago about how he was one of the driving forces behind trading up for Sammy Watkins so that the bills could "be bold", and there was another article out recently about how he will be part of the decision on who the next GM will be.. (even though I think we all know who the next GM will be already) I get that his main job is to make money / sell tickets, but even in that role he has been at least partially responsible for many of the Bills biggest mistakes over the last few years. I also understand that from his point of view both the Rex Ryan hire and Sammy Watkins pick were both huge successes (they both got people to buy more tickets) but he's done as much or possibly more to hurt this football team than anyone else over the last 10 years. At this point, I don't even care if the final decision is someone else's... I don't want Brandon's voice anywhere in the room when football decisions are being made. There's no question that Russ is fantastic at his job, but I would rather have a good football team and a lousy marketing department than one of the best marketing departments in the business but a football team that hasn't gone to the playoffs in 17 years.

I agree that not picking up the 5th year option is not the same as cutting him. And it is possible that he gets franchise tagged and ultimately re-signed. But I think if the Bills don't pick up his 5th year option it's unlikely a long-term deal gets done. This is all just speculation on my part but I don't get the feeling Sammy is entirely happy here. (Whether it's related to the offense he's playing in & not getting enough touches, the fan reaction he got on twitter last year, or something else entirely I don't know) I doubt screwing around with his 5th year option will help him want to stay here. Setting that aside, if we don't pick up the option and he has an amazing year he's probably going to want to be paid like one of the top WRs in the NFL. I doubt the Bills are going to pay that kind of money on a long-term deal in a year from now if they are concerned about him enough today that they aren't willing to pay him $13mil next year. If he has a bad or average year (or gets injured again) then I really don't see the Bills paying what it will likely take to keep him and again I see a scenario where he's going to want more than the Bills are going to pay. (like what just happened with Gilmore) If we pick up the 5th year option, we have leverage to begin contract negotiations next year (Bills will be able to own his rights for the next 2-3 years) If we decline the option, we'll have next to no leverage when we're trying to sign him long-term after we franchise tag him (if we franchise tag him) and I think it becomes much more likely he winds up somewhere else on a long-term deal. If the Bills see him as a long-term part of this franchise it makes no sense to give up that much leverage just to avoid possibly having to pay him $13mil next year. I understand the injury argument but if they really want to keep him the risk/reward is tilted HEAVILY in favor of picking the option up. More than likely, if the option is not picked up it's because Mcdermott isn't sold on him as our #1 WR of the future. (Again all just my opinion)

I think it's a no brainer to pick up his 5th year option. That gives us this year to see how he recovers from injury and two years (using franchise tag) after that to get a long-term contract done. If the Bills decide not to pick up the 5th year option I would definitely trade him mid-season for anything we can get. (Hopefully a 1st rounder if he starts the season well and some playoff team has a #1 WR get injured early. But I'd take a 2nd or a 3rd) I can't imagine we'd get much in a tag & trade scenario next year with Sammy playing on a 1 yr / $15+mil deal. And I'd rather get a pick than see him walk for nothing like what happened with Gilmore.

Long-term I feel very optimistic about the Bills' future. They have an owner willing to do anything it takes to win. Eventually that will show up on the field. Short-term I'm a little less optimistic. (Although I really like that we have 2 1sts next year.) I think this team won't be ready to compete until at least 2018 and even that would require a lot of things to go our way. McDermott I like some of what I've seen, and dislike some of what I've seen. I don't have an opinion yet. After the draft we just had I'm nervous about the rumors that we will be bringing over people from Carolina's front office. (Between 2014-2016 they traded away 13! draft picks to move up in the draft 6 times!) I personally don't think constantly trading up in the draft will be a recipe for long-term success. And I don't like that the rest of the front office (Russ, Overdorf, etc) are still here now that Whaley is gone. Ultimately though whether it's with McDermott or whoever comes next, eventually the Pegulas will get it right. I'm confident about that.

This post is ridiculous. Dealing with the contract negotiations is literally Overdorf's job.... I can't tell if this post is supposed to be serious or not? Hopefully the answer is not and I just missed the sarcasm.. The worst part about today is that Overdorf still has a job at OBD.. He should have been the very first one out the door...

I chose "B" but was tempted to go with "A". I wish they hadn't traded up twice (I can kind of get on board with the Zay Jones trade but 3 picks is steep for a 2nd/3rd round O-lineman...) I also wish they had taken better advantage of a historically deep DB class to restock our secondary after getting rid of Gilmore, Robey, Graham, & Williams. And I didn't like the way they were selecting for immediate needs vs BPA But I really liked the trade down in the first a lot!(even though there was some pretty good talent left on the board) Getting an extra first round pick is huge! (especially with our QB position not entirely settled and a potentially strong QB class next year)

Well good news then.. unless the Bills are planning to part ways with Sammy we won't have much cap room next year either. $40mil doesn't go very far when you factor in that only 27 players are under contract for next year (not including PS players) and the salary cap is based on top 51. That $40mil also doesn't include this year's rookie class, next year's rookie class, Sammy Watkins, Eric Wood, or Kyle WIlliams. So, if anything, be prepared for more of the same next year...

"2017 Buffalo Bills: technically still an NFL team"

To anyone saying a 5th round pick is adequate compensation for a RB that led the NFL in yards per carry last year for a team that is trying to build a run-first offense, I'd just like to point out this team just gave up getting a 3rd & 4th next year for Ducasse and Davis. (who combined will now be making approximately what we would have had to pay to match Gillislee's offer, so not even a salary cap benefit) I'd prefer Gillislee + 3rd round pick + 4th round pick over Ducasse/Davis. I'm not convinced anyone currently at OBD knows how to build/maintain an NFL roster..

Sorry if this has already been addressed (I haven't read through all 43 pages) But are there ANY legit Franchise QBs currently in the NFL that only started one year in College? I don't watch college football so I don't know anything about Trubisky as a prospect, but the fact that he only really played for one year in college would be enough to keep me away from drafting him with a top 10 pick...

I don't understand how this could even be up for debate. After what the Bills gave up to get him, of course they need to pick up the 5th year option. Even if that means they are "overpaying" him next year. That gives the Bills the opportunity to franchise him the following year if they can't work out a new contract. (Not sure why, I just have a feeling getting Sammy signed to a new deal isn't going to be easy) You can't let a player you just gave up 2 1st rounders and a 4th rounder for walk in FA...

I think someone near the beginning of the thread got it right. This sounds like NE putting the screws to Buffalo and putting pressure on Blount to sign his offer at the same time. Blount is still out there. So is AP in case NE is trying to put another superbowl run together. And when is the last time NE paid up big $$ for any RB? I'll hate it if I'm wrong because I think Buffalo really should keep Gillislee, but I really don't see NE making an offer for him that the Bills aren't going to match. Blount played in NE last year on a 1 yr / $1mil contract. I just don't see NE offering some sort of 5 year $20mil deal for Gillislee...

The first pick of the third round and either Howard/Davis/Williams/Foster/Watson at pick 12 sounds good to me.

I'm really happy to hear this I was hoping they would bring him back. I don't know how much he offers as a WR, but I thought he was VERY underrated as a return man last year. I think he almost single-handedly kept us in a few games last year with some of his plays on special teams.

I hope it's ok I'm starting a thread with only 10 posts, I couldn't find one that this question would be a good fit for. But now that the first few waves of Free Agency are over... It looks like the Bills have spent roughly $22mil(ish)/year to sign all the new FA's they've picked up so far (Hyde, Holmes, Poyer, Dimarco, Hauschka, Brown, Davis, Ducasse, Tolbert, Butler, Johnson, Washington) For the same amount of money the Bills probably could have brought back Gilmore & Woods. (And had no money to build the rest of the team, meaning we'd need to lean on a lot of UDFAs this year) I personally thought it was a good move that the Bills didn't "overpay" for Gilmore or Woods. But now that we can see how they spent the money instead, I'm wondering if re-signing two proven above average starters wouldn't have been a better way to go. Other than Hyde, Dimarco, & Hauschka I'm not sure how many others on that list have starter potential. I'm curious what everyone else thinks. If you had to choose would you take Gilmore/Woods back or the list of players above?