Adam727

There is NO WAY the Pats are trading what it would take to get into the top 5-7. 2 1sts this year, a 1st next year plus how much more to draft a QB behind Brady when they could use those picks on more talent for the roster and make another run at a Superbowl? No chance. IF the Pats want a QB, the only way this has even the slightest chance of impacting the Bills is if the Bills were hoping to get their QB at #22.

If the cost to get a QB ends up being too much (If Allen/Darnold/Rosen go 1/2/3 and the Browns want too much for pick 4) then fine. I'd rather see them wait than reach for Jackson/Rudolph at 12. But they better trade back for 2019 picks so we can grab a top QB prospect next year if that's what ends up happening. If they get Jackson/Rudolph/White/Falk etc and do nothing to get a top prospect next year either I'll be very unhappy.

Definitely not my first choice, but if this is the way draft day went I would not hate it! I do hope though that if we miss out on one of the top QBs this year that Beane can find a way to trade something for a 1st or 2nd round pick next year so we have some extra ammunition to grab another QB. Rudolph seems like good value in round 2 but would not want that to be the end of the QB search for the next 2-3 years.

It depends if you believe the rumors that NYG will take Darnold if he's there are 2. IF true, and the Giants take Darnold, then Allen/Darnold/Rosen would come off the board 1/2/3 (and Denver supposedly really likes Mayfield) IF not true, and the Giants are willing to trade down, select Barkley, or Chubb, then Allen going #1 to the Browns would be great for the Bills because (assuming the Bills don't trade to two) that leaves Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield on the board at pick 3 with only the Jets and possibly Denver ahead of us looking for QBs barring any trade ups.

I've actually been wondering about this but couldn't find the right place to post. Do we know for sure if it's a good or bad thing if the Browns take Josh Allen @ #1? Obviously it's bad if that means the Giants take Darnold @ #2. But is it really a sure thing that would happen? If the Browns take Allen @ 1 and the Giants DON'T take a QB at 2, that would be a dream scenario (for those of us that don't want the Bills to draft Allen) since it likely means at least one of Darnold/Rosen/Mayfield will either be there at 12 or at the very least fall to the bottom of the top 10 if we can stay ahead of Miami/Arizona. If 1/2/3 goes Allen/Darnold/QB to Jets, that is pretty close to worst case scenario though.

QB - 1 - Need a starter! (Round 1) MLB 1 - Need a Starter! (Round 1-2) WR 1 - Need at least one starter! Possibly 2 (Round 1-2) CB 2 - went from a strength to weakness with the loss of Gaines/Johnson. Need a 3rd CB and possibly an eventual replacement for Davis who is on a 1 year contract and coming off injury (Tre looks good though!) C 2.5 - Between Groy and the new guy we definitely have a back-up C and possibly a borderline starter. Could use an upgrade here. RG/RT 2.5 - Good enough for last year but nobody at either position is a quality starter DT 3.5 - Need depth and an eventual replacement for Kyle RB - need to start looking for a replacement for Shady, but I think there may be too many other needs to address this one this year. I like our depth at this position. LT - Need depth with Glenn & Henderson gone. Can you imagine Dawkins getting hurt in pre-season and needing to rely on Mills as our LT all year? LG, TE, DE, Safety, Kicker are the only positions that look like they are in good shape for this year IMO. Looking at the holes on this team I think this roster requires a minimum 2 year rebuild from here. Luckily we have a lot of draft picks this year and a lot of salary cap space next year.

We aren't a playoff team next year with A.J. or with a Rookie. (We aren't going to have the worst record in the NFL either, but we could be picking top 10 for sure)

That still feels like a LOT to give up, but if the Bills have identified their guy and are convinced he's going to be our franchise QB and that's what it takes to get him, I would be ok with that trade to get up to #2. (Especially if by some chance Cleveland takes Allen and the Bills have their pick of the other 3)

1st round pick in 2019 is a deal-breaker for me. I think that could be a very high pick. And I don't want the team to be THAT committed to a rookie prospect that we're drafting after at least 1-2 other QB needy teams. I'm fine with any 2018 picks the team wants to trade (up or down)

My back-up plan would be trade down from 12 for a late 1st or early 2nd this year and a 1st next year, and trade a 2nd for another 1st next year. Draft BPA at 22, Draft Rudolph or White in Round 2, and keep enough draft capital going forward that next time we don't miss out when a potential franchise QB becomes available in the draft.

I was expecting we wouldn't be able to afford Gaines and he'd be playing somewhere else this year. But I'm pretty disappointed the Bills weren't able to beat a 1 yr $4mil contract offer...

If the Bills can't get Darnold, Rosen, or Mayfield I really hope this is plan B. I don't think it will happen, but it would definitely be my favorite of all the scenarios left at that point. It would take the sting out of not getting our QB this year a little (and would take the sting out of losing a franchise LT for a plan that didn't work out) if we move back at 12 for another 1st next year. I know the QB class next year probably isn't as good, but we likely won't be needing to trade up all the way from 21 next year either.

I really like this move. I was hoping the Bills would bring him back.

I think the writing was on the wall for Glenn so not a total surprise, but I genuinely dislike this move. When healthy (which he has been most of his career) Glenn was a top 10 LT (locked up with a base salary of only $7.5 mil a year) and we just traded that away for the equivalent of a mid 2nd round pick. And our salary cap savings this year from the move are barely enough to pay for Chris Ivory! I understand this was done in the context of a bigger move to trade up for a QB and we won't know how this trade works out for a few years, but I don't understand why this trade couldn't have waited for draft day or why we wouldn't want to keep a top tier LT on a cheap contract to protect our new QB. (What if we just traded Cordy for next to nothing and still can't get our QB of choice because Jets/Broncos/Cardinals leapfrog us anyway?) I understand what Beane is doing. But now we're talking about trading up using the pick we got for not selecting Watson/Mahomes last year, the pick we got for Sammy, the pick we got for Darby, probably our other first rounder and who knows what else. If they miss with that selection after the mass exodus of talent over the last two years that it took to set this trade up in motion, Beane will have single-handedly set the team back for years to come.

I'd be happy throwing a 5th or 6th round pick to the Broncos for Sieman. But only if we cut/trade TT BEFORE he gets his 6mil roster bonus. My reason being we get Sieman as a bridge QB for 1 year for less than $2mil. I don't see the Bills competing in 2018 anyway, so save as much cap space as you can for 2019 and draft your QB of the future this year. (Also we probably get the pick back as a compensatory pick when Sieman signs a 2-3 yr backup QB deal elsewhere next year)

I think they're more likely to trade up than back in this draft. I wouldn't mind seeing them come away with extra 2019 draft picks though. An ideal (but unlikely) scenario might be: Trade pick 21 and 2nd round pick to Washington for 13 to leapfrog Arizona for a QB. Trade pick 22 for a 2nd round pick this year and a 1st round pick next year. End result = trade up for 3rd or 4th best QB prospect in the draft, still have 2 2nd round picks, and 2 1st round picks again next year.

Not for the amount of money he's going to want. I'd rather avoid big money free agents this year and keep saving cap money for 2019/2020 after Beane has had a couple of years to find his QB and assemble the roster he wants.

$4.8mil 2018 base salary = 100% guaranteed for injury + $4,333,333 signing bonus + $1,258,334 restructure bonus = $10,391,668 dead money. Sad day for Eric, sad day for the Bills fans, sad day for the team going forward now that they lost their starting center who will count $10.4mil against the cap anyway.

I think a 2nd would get it done. The Chiefs are currently $14mil OVER the salary cap for 2018. Getting Smith off the roster frees up $17mil for them. They could wind up cutting Smith outright if they can't get a trade done and I'm guessing the league knows it, which will limit what the Chiefs will be able to ask / hold out for.

I genuinely hate this idea. And even if Smith ended up being the best LB in the league I would STILL hate this idea. Trade up for a QB, make their picks at 21 & 22, or trade back and acquire more future draft capital. I'd be fine with any/all of those. But if they traded down instead of selecting Watson or Mahomes last year so that they could package those extra picks the following year to draft a LB, it would be really difficult to try to support this team until Beane is gone.

I don't even understand why this is a question. The Steelers go deep into the playoffs almost every year... and even today when people are questioning his decision-making, the steelers scored 14 points on 4th downs in situations where the Bills would have definitely punted. Steelers would have to be crazy to fire Tomlin and he'd have a new job within 48 hours if they did..

Not a fan of this idea. Given that it doesn't seem like we get much (any?) cap savings (and would have to pay Shaq's replacement) I'm not really excited about trading him for a late round pick. I'd rather the Bills keep him even if it's only as a situational DE. Can someone please explain what the exact cap implications of a trade would be? Spotrac says his entire salary is guaranteed but it seems incorrect that Buffalo would be on the hook for his entire salary and the team they trade him to wouldn't have to pay him anything?

This. If the Bills do end up signing Cousins I'll quickly get on board, but I'm concerned that he's not talented enough for the price he's going to cost. The Bills can definitely afford him, but it would severely hamper their ability to add talent around the QB position in free agency for the next several years. If the Bills still had their 2015 roster I'd be much more in favor of this move. Or if we were talking about a QB a bit better (Phillip Rivers, Matt Ryan, Russell Wilson etc) I'd be on board with paying whatever is necessary. But i'm not sure the combination of Kirk Cousins + the Buffalo bills 2018 roster is exciting enough to mortgage the future for.

Thanks OP for this post. I thought it was really interesting and none of the numbers are really surprising. I think going the FA route for a QB is a legit option this year as there are actually some good QBs available in FA this year which doesn't happen often. I also like PolishDave's post about drafting a QB each year. Realistically you can't draft one high every year, but if they really wanted to, the Bills could draft one in 2018, another one in 2019, and another one in 2021 if the QB drafted in 2018 isn't working out by then. At that point odds are in your favor you will have found your franchise QB. And if you wind up with two, then trade one for picks like the Pats always do. I like that a lot more than giving Losman/Edwards/EJ/next Bills QB 3 years without any sort of back-up plan in place, because then if you're not in the 20% or 50% of teams that drafted the right QB you haven't wasted 3 years and you aren't starting over from scratch afterwards. (If the bills followed this plan the year after drafting Losman they might have wound up with Rodgers) For me, the worst parts of the Bills' playoff drought were watching teams with a QB that I thought it was pretty easy to see would never become a franchse QBs (Trent/EJ especially.) Those years would have been easier to watch if the next guy was already on the team learning and waiting to step in. I also wouldn't mind seeing the Bills keep trading one of their early draft picks for picks in the following draft every year until they have a franchise QB on the roster so that they always have extra draft capital and can move around the draft board as necessary to draft the right QB until they find one. I know spending that much draft capital on the QB position could set the team back in the short term, but I would happily take 2-3 years of 5-11/6-10 football if it meant we have a franchise QB for the next 10-15 years after that..

I was actually thinking he'd be a cap casualty this year partly due to his salary and partly because I think he was playing out of position at LB. I like the idea of moving him back to DE.