I think the NFL's punishment will be based on the legal system's punishment, whether damaging video is released and whether underage or exploited sex workers were involved. He's a very wealthy man who can afford the best legal help in a system geared toward exonerating the rich and incarcerating the poor.
The downside is very steep. If video gets out or if he was serviced by an underage sex worker, he's finished and will be forced to sell the team. I expect this to drag out awhile. I'm sure Kraft will be scarce around games this year.
I don't get how a man as public as he would go for sex in a place that he has to know has cameras even when not under surveillance. I guess we all have blind spots.
I expect his legal team to exhaust every manouevre and I think Kraft's money will make things go away. Still, I think if Goodell can get some payback for Patriots scandals past and the shaming T-shirts, I think he will.