OldTimer1960

Nice analysis!

I’m looking for another good RB to basically split touches evenly with Singletary. Not because I feel a need for an upgrade over Devin, but because I think the Bills still want to run the ball more than most teams and because optimally I would not want Singletary to log 20+ touches per game for a full season as he is likely to wear down as the season goes on. Ideally, the new RB would be proficient as a receiver out of the backfield, but I haven’t given up thinking that Singletary couldn’t be more involved there and I actually think that Yeldon is a good receiver and can be of value there. I am not married to a “type” (big bruiser, speedy, elusive) - I just want someone to gain yards when Singletary is resting. i will say that I really like any of the top guys that might be available when the Bills pick - Swift, Taylor, Dobbins, Edwards-Helaire and Akers. I think any of them would be a great compliment. After them, I kind of like Evans later or Moss maybe in 3rd. I’m not a huge fan of AJ Dillon in spite of his combine results and his production, but wouldn’t hate him in the 4th.

Of course, it depends on who is available and if you can find a willing partner. I question the assertion that there will be someone available in that range whom Bills have a 1st round grade on. Most things I’ve read suggest that in most years there are really only give or take 20 true first round graded prospects. That doesn’t negate your idea if you substitute “someone who the Bills have graded much higher than other remaining prospects” into the sentence. Still, I don’t think Beane is going to be keen on going without a 3rd round pick. I think the trade concepts will involve trading 4th or later picks and I think it would have to be someone pretty special for them to even want to trade their 4th. Of course, that is just my view... What am I missing when I watch Lewis? I didn’t see a lot to get excited about beyond his build and athleticism.

Grades are all over the map on the DEs this year. There are very few really explosive guys in the draft beyond Young and those that are pretty athletic have other questions. There are guys with good college production, but lacking top notch athletic attributes like Epenesa, Weaver, Anae, and some guys with other questions, but some explosiveness like Okwara and Lewis. i don’t see any big trade up in round 2 because I don’t think they will want to part with their 3rd to do so.

I agree - he seems a very good fit.

But in Gibson’s case his touches were GLARINGLY limited. Why was that? I presume that Memphis’ coach likes being employed, so if Gibson is really that good, you would think they would find a way to get him the ball. Last season, he got the ball an average of 5 times per game (excluding special teams). Why that was is the riddle to solve. I am not saying that he might not be good, but I don’t see how a team could look at that utilization and justify even a 3rd round pick on him. I think 4th round might still be rich for him, but I could see someone being enticed by his athleticism.

I think the Dolphins would disagree, especially with what they paid him. I liked Lawson - I think he is a decent to good starting DE in the league. The idea that every starting DE is expected to get 10 sacks per year is unrealistic in my opinion.

Bills are picking in the bottom 1/3 of each round - first pick 54th. In that spot, Bills should be happy to get a decent starter. Yes, sometimes a star is found there or later even, but by round 2 good starter is totally fine.

Before a team spends even a late 3rd or even 4th round pick on him, they need to figure out why his college coaches only game him 77 total touches from the LOS in 2 full seasons. If he is truly the dynamic play maker that his athletic ability suggests, wouldn't his coaches found ways to get the ball into his hands far more often? For contrast, Wisconsin gave Jonathan Taylor 346 combined rushes and catches just this past season. Maybe there is a very good reason that Gibson's coaches didn't use him much more often, but I think a team has to understand the answer before investing in him.

Really great analysis and many thanks for all the time and effort that you obviously put into scouting. I would be pretty lukewarm if the Bills take Greenard in the 2nd. I know that they need youth at DE, but it seems they will have to talk themselves into liking any of the ends that are likely to be left there. My preference would be for a prospect at another position even if it leaves them somewhat desperate for young edge help. For sure, Greenard looks like an athlete and has super long arms which can be very helpful as a pass rusher so he has some tools. I know you are much higher on him. What do you see that makes you feel he is a good 2nd round selection?

While I like some of what we saw from Darryl Johnson, if they don’t take a DE in round 2 it could also just mean that they didn’t like the DEs that were available enough to take one - I don’t think it necessarily says much about their thoughts on Johnson. Late in round 2 this year I don’t think the DE options will be great. I agree - I really like how hard he runs when he has the ball, but so many of his touches were schemed to get him the ball on passes +/-5 yards of LOS and on handoffs that it is hard to say he is a WR. Combined with his pedestrian 40 and injuries, I think it would be wise to avoid him.

Funny stuff!

I wouldn't over-prioritize WR based on the argument (alone) that this is a "historically deep" class. There *might* be some value available at the position when Bills picks come up, but just because there are more than usual 2nd and 3rd round rated prospects doesn't mean that you have to grab one. Now, if someone they had graded a full round or more higher than the round that they are in, that would be value and could entice them, but if say it is Bills pick in late 3rd and there are a few WRs that they had graded as maybe earlier 3rd round prospects - that wouldn't necessarily make them automatic picks - depends on who is available at other positions.

I just think that they need another *good* back. If they can help in the passing game, so much the better, but I am not married to "big power back" or "speedster" - just someone who can gain yards consistently and share the load with Singletary. For example, if Edwards-Helaire is available, I wouldn't rule him out as an option just because he is similar in size/speed to Singletary. I see WR similarly - I don't think that there is a glaring hole in the offense because they don't have a 6'4" WR. If a guy can make catches and gain yards - he is qualified in my opinion.

Agree. How do you see Moss vs Dillon? I wasn’t initially super excited by either, but I’ve watched several games of each and can see some value to both (but definitely not before 3rd round). I think I see Moss as a better option than Dillon even though Dillon’s combine testing was really something for his size and Moss’ left a bit to be desired.

I remember Keith Moody (1970s) being very good). 88 PRs 10.5 avg, 3 TDs

I think that there will be good WR prospects available at 54, but “first round WR talent” at 54 is, I suspect, a bit optimistic. There is a possibility that someone like Shenault that is coming off injury, has injury history and hasn’t been able to work out or be medically checked might be available, but I don’t think that will be enough to entice them. I just can’t see the Bills taking WR in 2nd after spending their 1st on WR (Diggs), Unless there is a WR at 54 that is rated SO much higher than who is available at other positions. I think that rating gap would have to be pretty wide to entice them to spend their 2nd on WR.

I think it is hard to predict what the Bills will do based on the past 2 years in the draft. They had a plan which was to fortify the defense first in their rebuild and to get a QB prospect that they like. They have done that and I would expect that they will continue now building the offense - that doesn't mean that they won't take any defensive players this year - I still think that is a strong possibility this year.

I liked Alton Robinson when I watched his full games as well. He seems to be one of the more athletic DEs in the draft this year. I don't know how teams view Julian Okwara (Notre Dame), but he looks to me like he has considerable pass rush potential as a DE.

Where did this notion that he has breakaway speed come from? I don’t see that in the games that I watched and his combine 40 was over 4.6 (not game breaking speed for a RB).

Whose speed are you talking about? Dillon did run an impressive 4.5ish 40, but he isn't very elusive and Perine neither looks fast (to me) nor did he run better than 4.6 at the combine.

I think the RB class depth is maybe a bit overblown. There are some really good prospects in Swift, Taylor, Dobbins, Edward-Helaire and I think that Akers and Moss aren’t too far behind them with Evans being interesting. Beyond them, I think you are into guys who aren’t very special- and I group AJ Dillon and Perine into the not special group. Of course, those are just my opinions- others may see it differently.

I wasn’t nearly as impressed with Perine as some in this thread are. I think he is a consolation prize that you might take in the 4th or 5th round if you don’t take a back earlier. At least based on the games that I watched and also based on what I’ve read,I can’t see a case to take him any higher than the 4th. Just my opinion...

I really like Bryan Edwards, but I think Duggar is too much of a projection for my tastes with limited draft choices a this year. He is for sure a terrific athlete and he did dominate his low-level competition, but he won’t have the same size/speed advantage over opponents in the NFL that he did at his college. He is also old for a rookie at 24 y.o. and would be trying to contribute early making a HUGE jump up in competition. He might pan out to be great, but I think too risky in round 2.

I cannot see the Bills using both their 1st (Diggs) AND 2nd picks on WR. Only scenario I could imagine would be if a WR who they graded as a 1st rounder was miraculously still available- and even then it would take big ones to take another WR there.